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rogerthebutler
30 Mar 16 10:05
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Date Joined: 01 Mar 03
| Topic/replies: 13,044 | Blogger: rogerthebutler's blog
Traffic Fluide for the Champion Chase  33/1 - so far
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Report impossible123 March 30, 2016 10:36 AM BST
Only The Don to retain his CGC title at 7 here.
Report wellchief March 30, 2016 10:45 AM BST
The only one that would interest me would be Alpha Des Obeaux at 10's for the World Hurdle, but no idea if he stays over hurdles, so none for me


It'll take something extraordinary for me to have an AP bet this year. I'll keep my eye on the any race markets though when they crop up.
Report wellchief March 30, 2016 10:49 AM BST
Barters Hill at 20's for the RSA is a decent price too, but again not backed.

Thistlecrack is fav but he'll be Gold Cup or World Hurdle, and Yorkhill won't run in this.
Report Can't Catch Me March 30, 2016 11:05 AM BST
I havent yet, but am very tempted by the 8/1 Vautour for the GC.

With Djakadam having had his two go's I think they will look elsewhere with him now, and Vautour will be RR's main contender. He's now annihilated every horse he has faced at Cheltenham and I just dont think they will go any other route than this next year. Try and teach him to settle better right from the word go this season and campaign him as a GC horse.

The only problem with the price, is that he will invariably run way below his best at some point in the season and probably be not much shorter.... but he's the one that stands out to me as certain to go off alot shorter than his current price.
Report Jb23 March 30, 2016 11:54 AM BST
Had a free £5 bet on Vautour (GC), Alpha Des Obeaux (RSA), Douvain (Champion Chase) and Battleford (Neptune)

Already booked the week following cheltenham off. Im off to the Bahamas. Mojito time!!!
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y March 30, 2016 12:26 PM BST
Alpha Des Obeaux goes chasing next season
Report houseofpain March 30, 2016 2:20 PM BST
Douvan KG.
Report trigger3 March 30, 2016 2:47 PM BST
Alpha des Obeaux @ 8/1 for the RSA is the only price that appeals to me at the minute. I'd be interested in Vautour @ 8/1 for the GC but I've learned the lesson with Mullins horses and he may not aim him at the GC. It could be one of 3 races for Vautour which has to be factored into his price. Similar with Douvan, so unless your in the know you are really backing blindly. Douvan is generally around 4/5 - 6/4 for the champion chase which is absolutely crackers considering that it is not confirmed he will definitely even go down that route.
Report wellchief March 30, 2016 3:08 PM BST
I'd say 6/4 on Douvan was bonkers even if he was 100% going for the race.
Report trigger3 March 30, 2016 3:21 PM BST
I agree totally, a lot of the hype around Douvan is based on Mullins own comments in the press. He seems to have a real soft spot for Douvan similar to the way he used talk about Hurricane Fly. To my eye Douvan has been no more impressive than either Vautour or Faugheen at the same stage of their careers with the added caveat that he has achieved nothing outside of novice company. He is potentially a great horse but for the time being that is all it is, potential.
Report stan246 March 30, 2016 4:30 PM BST
Douvan 16/20 GC, NMH 20 GC (RIP). Lay Faugheen & Douvan short
Report gutfeeling March 30, 2016 4:33 PM BST
Altior - Champion Hurdle 8/1 PP.
Champers On Ice EW - RSA 33/1 SkyBet.

Main AP currently is Tea For Two ew @ 25/1 for the KG although that's this year.
Report GI MAC March 30, 2016 7:33 PM BST
Killultagh Vic Gold Cup @ 33/1
Report .Fidway. March 30, 2016 7:53 PM BST
Fagan -- 4 miler 16/1 Sky bet
Yorkhill - Arkle 5/1 Skybet
Report deepingfox March 30, 2016 10:34 PM BST
Game of opinions, and happy for anyone to be sceptical on DOUVAN for 2017 Gold Cup, vs me being happy with my 20/1 betting slip.

Looking at stats for Gold Cup winners, the main ones are:

# Ran in KG, Lexus or Hennessy in current season
# 1st or 2nd LTO
# 1st or 2nd prior festivals.
# Grade 1 Chase win
# 7 to 9 years of age
# 1st run in Gold Cup
# Won over 3 miles or more.

Douvan has 4 of these stats in the bag already, and if WM wants to test he is the real deal in the KG, and he wins, then all stats covered. I am really keen to see his first race next season, and if he steps up in trip.

I believe VAUTOUR could easily be placed to win the Champion Chase, if Douvan tested and successful over 2M4F and then 3M.

All guesswork and opinion, but get it right and you end up with an edge, that's all AP betting is.
Report traveltips March 31, 2016 3:17 PM BST
Don Poli 33/1 GC
Report Mr Eboue March 31, 2016 3:21 PM BST
In my opinion Alpha des Obeax's performance was good enough to have won many a Stayers hurdle.

If he jumps a fence as well as a hurdle he could go right to the very top of the chasing tree.
Report Howdi March 31, 2016 4:31 PM BST
^^^ not if Thistlecrack's goes chasing he won't :)
Report Mr Eboue March 31, 2016 5:54 PM BST
Alpha in the RSA

Thistlecrack in the Gold Cup

LaughCool
Report Howdi March 31, 2016 5:58 PM BST
^^^ NICELY SWERVED, i'D EXPECT NO LESS.
Report kavvie April 4, 2016 3:38 PM BST
anyone having a bet now for 2017 with the way wp changes his mind is absolutely  cracked and has no respect for money!!
Report Eeternaloptimist April 4, 2016 6:45 PM BST
I'd be wary of having any ante post bet but agreed on Mullins. I'd no more back one of his than throw it down the drain. I note Vautour has been odds on for the 3 miler at Aintree with all except Paddy Power who have him at 3-1. Some Gold Cup horse. Laugh
Report impossible123 April 4, 2016 6:58 PM BST
If the ground is good to soft/soft at Aintree Vautour will most likely to stay in his box than tackling the "Bowl" or the "Melling Chase" - coming from me has more credence than from his owner, trust me!
Report trigger3 April 5, 2016 12:17 PM BST
So is Vautour still only 90% fit given that he has avoided another tilt at a prize over 3m+ at Aintree? Or was Willie simply being economical with the truth and in fact has decided that he won't stay?
Report rogerthebutler April 5, 2016 2:15 PM BST
I think we'd all sleep easier in our beds if we ignored everything Willie Mullins says
Report ReaseHeath April 5, 2016 3:07 PM BST
think it's pretty straightforward re Aintree - Mullins is trying to win UK trainers championship and Vautour may well have been saved until Punchestown otherwise.

He already has two potential winners of the Bowl and would have to take on a horse who has already beaten Vautour this season whereas in the Melling Chase he gets the chance to beat up some of the same horses he annihilated at Aintree once more.

Hopefully Vibrato Valtat will stay on his feet and Clarcam can reproduce the form of his effort in the novices chase last year to give Vautour a bit more of a race but I would n't bet on it.
Report ReaseHeath April 5, 2016 3:34 PM BST
^annihilated at Cheltenham
Report trigger3 April 5, 2016 6:28 PM BST
Oh I know his logic behind it, but it merely confirms that he puts his own personal targets, and prize money ahead of the horses/owners best interests. If he doesn't then run him over 3m at Puchestown he effectively be none the wiser as to what route he should map out for next season. Ricci is a bigger patsy for going along with it. He could simply drop Djakadam back in distance and move Vautour up in distance and have roughly the same chance of winning both races.
Report Eeternaloptimist April 5, 2016 7:16 PM BST
Exactly that plus he doesn't give a monkeys for the racing public who are the ones who keep the show on the road. He's just a farmer seeking to milk as much as he can.
Report impossible123 April 5, 2016 8:08 PM BST
I'm sorry to say RR is a typical banker ie someone who is part of a herd hence possesses a herd mentality and cannot think for himself; one backs RR horses at one's peril, beware!
Report firstimevisor April 5, 2016 9:33 PM BST
RR seems like a nice enough guy but what would he know? He's just an owner.He gets to write the cheques, walk his horses into the winner's enclosure, stand in for photos, invite  his friends or bankers to his corporate box and stuff like that. But put him in an identity parade of his own 50 odd horses and how many would he pick out?
The reason he is such a successful owner is because his trainer makes all the decisions - where to buy, who to buy, how to train them, who rides them and where to run them - and five winners and a couple of seconds at Cheltenham for RR ,is proof positive that these decisions are best left to the professionals.
Report rogerthebutler April 6, 2016 5:20 PM BST
Which is fine all the while he keeps his trap shut and himself out of the limelight - but he does seem fond of gobbing off and getting in front of the cameras at the drop of a hat.
Report Howdi April 9, 2016 11:51 PM BST
^^^ to be fair Roger, Richie never drops his hat, its stuck to his head.
Report rl91 April 10, 2016 12:04 AM BST
Put a small stake in Faugheen at 2/1

Nothing is really sticking out to me but there's no way he will rerouted IMO and simply means withdrawing 1 unit less of my national winnings
Will probably keep doing it on any big winners over the summer until something sticks out as value as atm there's nothing catching my eye
Report Can't Catch Me May 26, 2016 7:02 PM BST
Rich Ricci interviewed at Sandown before Max Dynamite ran, and when asked how his National Hunt stars were, he mentioned Senewalk about second. Ahead of the likes of Vautour! Said he worked very well at the Curragh today.

The dogs have started barking early on this one.
Report impossible123 May 29, 2016 7:31 PM BST
Yes, Vroum Vroum Mag and Killutagh Vic for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Report foolsgold123 May 29, 2016 9:25 PM BST
Thistlerack @ 10/1 Gold Cup - Yorkhill @ 4/1 Arkle - Djakadam @ 20/1 Ryanair - Moon Racer @ 18/1 Supreme - Un De Sceaux@ 16/1 World Hurdle. All e/w and small stakes really, little and often with what I think is value.
Report Paterson92 June 2, 2016 11:02 PM BST
Glens Harmony 20/1 for the Mares Novice Hurdle and Invitation Only 16/1 for the Neptune Novices Hurdle.
Report Orsoncart June 28, 2016 11:56 AM BST
Spurs to finish above Arsenal next season
Report sageform July 3, 2016 7:52 PM BST
Not sure I want to tie up money for 9 months and certainly not win bets on horses that might not even be in training next season. I would consider laying anything priced below 3 though.
Report Paterson92 July 3, 2016 9:45 PM BST
Which is fair enough but personally I don't mind throwing a fiver here or there at Cheltenham ante post, especially when 90% of the flat season is depressing.
Report Quevega06 July 10, 2016 11:22 PM BST
What do we make of Let's Dance for,the Mares Novice ?
Report Paterson92 July 12, 2016 8:17 AM BST
Personally think she's overrated and current odds of 3/1 are despicable. Would much rather have my few quid on Augusta Kate or Glens Harmony at this point. Mullins recently acquired another called Redhotfillypeppers, one to keep an eye on.
Report barnesey July 14, 2016 9:39 PM BST
I quite like the nipper at 20/1 for the mares novice, think she's a bit of a loon but if they can sort her head out the bumper she won at sandown was quite something considering the way she drifted across the track!!!
Report impossible123 July 17, 2016 7:24 PM BST
A bet on Vroum Vroum Mag and Killultagh Vic at 33/1 each for the Cheltenham Gold Cup could be rewarding I think.
Report impossible123 October 18, 2016 12:20 PM BST
With the unexpected and sad demise of No More Heroes and injury sustained by Don Cossack post the Gold Cup the 2017 Cheltenham antepost bets are nothing but a 'shot in the dark' for me; the only advantage is Willie Mullins can no longer multi-entered his 'star' horses in big races to take the 'michael' out of racegoers and/or punters.

Does anyone know for sure which race in the Cheltenham Festival Shantou Village is aimed at eg JLT or RSA?
Report Jb23 October 18, 2016 12:29 PM BST
Entered over 2m3 on Saturday at Cheltenham Impossible. Pretty sure i've read somewhere they regret going AB instead of the Neptune last year. Putting 2+2 together id say he is probably JLT atm, however a lot can happen between now & then!
Report impossible123 October 18, 2016 12:41 PM BST
Jb23,

Thanks, Shantou Village is about 27/1 for both the JLT and RSA (here); the JLT is a hot race with Buveur D'air and possibly Barters Hill in at the moment; the RSA is no less competitive either with Bellshill, Alpha Des Obeaux, Unowhatimeanhairy, etc.
Report shockster October 18, 2016 3:03 PM BST
I've backed 3 speculatively on here for the Gold Cup at huge prices and they needed to be.

The Last Samuri as he's rated 159 and starts off in the JN Wine chase. A win in any graded race and they'll be more or less forced to go Gold Cup.
Gilgamboa also rated 159 and 3m2f no issue after Grand National 4th. Only 10 lengths behind Vautour in Ryanair last year and I reckon will improve for step up in trip from that.
Puffin Billy cos I like the horse and his form with the Last Samuri now reads very well.

All big prices and small stakes for a bit of fun to start my Ante Post off.
Report Can't Catch Me October 18, 2016 3:26 PM BST
Just the four for me so far:

Supreme - Senewalk 16/1
Arkle - Old Guard 33/1
World Hurdle - Yanworth 14/1
Ryanair - Djakadam 20/1
Report impossible123 October 19, 2016 11:45 AM BST
Djakadam and Yanworth at 20/1 and 14/1 for the Ryanair and World Hurdle are tremendous value even if Vautour runs in the former. However, Old Guard ought to be 33/1 just to get round over 16f at Cheltenham let alone to win on given jumping ability over fences.

I've done 'Landofhopeandglory' at 20/1 for the Triumph, on flat form and same trainer as last year's winner, Ivanovich Gorbatov, but not the resolution, according to some.
Report barnesey October 19, 2016 11:50 AM BST
Impossible if vautour runs in the former then surely it doesn't matter what price djackadam is as he wont be running in the same race???
Report Can't Catch Me October 19, 2016 2:38 PM BST
Agreed barnesy. If Vautour runs in the Ryanair, my money will be done!

Clearly 33/1 Old Guard looks a dreadful price now, but I took the risk before we saw him jump.
Report impossible123 October 19, 2016 5:08 PM BST
barnesey

Indeed, one would probably stay in his barn!

But will Ricci have two for the Gold Cup eg Vautour and Vroum Vroum Mag? I do not think he'll have Vautour (penalty kick for the Ryanair) and Djakadam in the  Blue Riband race though but Vroum Vroum Mag and Djakadam, a possibility.

Today Mullins has been reported to say Vroum Vroum Mag dual purpose - no definitive race as yet - will play super-sub; Limini is going for the Mares race; Yorkhill still unsure whether hurdle or chase.

Musical chairs all over again but less so that last year with 60 horses removed by Gigginstown.
Report sageform October 20, 2016 12:00 PM BST
I still haven't placed a bet for 2017 but isn't it about time that this thread was retitled Cheltenham 2017 or a new one opened?
Report irishone October 21, 2016 11:55 PM BST
Havent missed many days at galway this year and have been impressed by three horses each of whom have shown a distinct change of pace when the chips were down. CLONDAW WARRIOR , PENHILL, AND DIAMOND KING (not a change of pace more the quick jumping with the latter).. I have been lumping on Penhill and DK and will continue to do so with the aim of covering the cost of the annual trip.
Report Mister T October 25, 2016 1:41 AM BST
irishone Willie's comments on Penhill - “He is improving with every run and is getting braver with his jumping all the time. He could stay further than two miles, but the ground is a question mark for him, as I don’t necessarily think he will be one for winter heavy ground. He is very much in the picture for the Royal Bond.”
Report TEN2FOLLOWER November 6, 2016 9:44 PM GMT
Let's Dance - Mares Novices  7/1
It came to pass - Foxhunters  16/1
Landofhopeandglory  Triumph  20/1
Report shockster November 8, 2016 9:11 AM GMT
TEN2FOLLOWER reminded me to put this up.  It's a free to enter 10 to follow competition.  Follow the link below must be done before Cheltenham this week.  Monthly prizes etc.

http://thefinalflightpublications.co.uk/nh10tfcompetition/


Good luck
Report Satrus_Froot November 11, 2016 11:04 AM GMT
So come on then you miserable old men, it's the first day of the Open meeting. That means it's completely acceptable to start dreaming about March and for those in any kind of doubt National Hunt racing is back for real today. Don't be shy Grin

The flat lot are already discussing the 2033 Epsom Derby!
Report Joist November 12, 2016 4:50 PM GMT
I've had two bets for 2017.

Douvan: King George & Gold Cup double, 33/1
Barters Hill: JLT, 25/1 and 20/1 Cry But at least he's okay to fight another day Happy
Report Can't Catch Me November 14, 2016 5:13 PM GMT
Ive just backed O O Seven for the JLT at 20/1.

He looks like a horse who has improved immeasurably for a fence, and I thought that was a pretty decent display at the weekend. Suppose there is the risk he might step up for the RSA, but from what NJH said after the race, I think JLT looks the race for him.
Report Fabulous November 14, 2016 5:31 PM GMT
CCM, I bet It'safreebee for The JLT few weeks back, was very keen on him, but 007 fair stuffed him the other day. 20's looks a good price on what we seen on Friday, so good luck.
Report impossible123 November 14, 2016 7:40 PM GMT
I've backed Thistlecrack at 26/1 here for the RSA because I believe he is unlikely to be risked against the seasoned fencers in the Gold Cup; I cannot see him not making a bad mistake against the big boys/girls even if he has 5 races between now and March 2017. It is also telling connections are leaning towards the Kauto Star Chase (Feltham) at Kempton x'mas meeting. If RSA bound next year, I think he will be no bigger than 3/1 for the 2018 Gold Cup post winning the RSA, I'd imagine.
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