Cheltenham Festival
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30 Mar 16
10:05
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01 Mar 03
Traffic Fluide for the Champion Chase 33/1 - so far
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Only The Don to retain his CGC title at 7 here.
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The only one that would interest me would be Alpha Des Obeaux at 10's for the World Hurdle, but no idea if he stays over hurdles, so none for me
It'll take something extraordinary for me to have an AP bet this year. I'll keep my eye on the any race markets though when they crop up. |
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Barters Hill at 20's for the RSA is a decent price too, but again not backed.
Thistlecrack is fav but he'll be Gold Cup or World Hurdle, and Yorkhill won't run in this. |
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I havent yet, but am very tempted by the 8/1 Vautour for the GC.
With Djakadam having had his two go's I think they will look elsewhere with him now, and Vautour will be RR's main contender. He's now annihilated every horse he has faced at Cheltenham and I just dont think they will go any other route than this next year. Try and teach him to settle better right from the word go this season and campaign him as a GC horse. The only problem with the price, is that he will invariably run way below his best at some point in the season and probably be not much shorter.... but he's the one that stands out to me as certain to go off alot shorter than his current price. |
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Had a free £5 bet on Vautour (GC), Alpha Des Obeaux (RSA), Douvain (Champion Chase) and Battleford (Neptune)
Already booked the week following cheltenham off. Im off to the Bahamas. Mojito time!!! |
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Alpha Des Obeaux goes chasing next season
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Douvan KG.
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Alpha des Obeaux @ 8/1 for the RSA is the only price that appeals to me at the minute. I'd be interested in Vautour @ 8/1 for the GC but I've learned the lesson with Mullins horses and he may not aim him at the GC. It could be one of 3 races for Vautour which has to be factored into his price. Similar with Douvan, so unless your in the know you are really backing blindly. Douvan is generally around 4/5 - 6/4 for the champion chase which is absolutely crackers considering that it is not confirmed he will definitely even go down that route.
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I'd say 6/4 on Douvan was bonkers even if he was 100% going for the race.
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I agree totally, a lot of the hype around Douvan is based on Mullins own comments in the press. He seems to have a real soft spot for Douvan similar to the way he used talk about Hurricane Fly. To my eye Douvan has been no more impressive than either Vautour or Faugheen at the same stage of their careers with the added caveat that he has achieved nothing outside of novice company. He is potentially a great horse but for the time being that is all it is, potential.
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Douvan 16/20 GC, NMH 20 GC (RIP). Lay Faugheen & Douvan short
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Altior - Champion Hurdle 8/1 PP.
Champers On Ice EW - RSA 33/1 SkyBet. Main AP currently is Tea For Two ew @ 25/1 for the KG although that's this year. |
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Killultagh Vic Gold Cup @ 33/1
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Fagan -- 4 miler 16/1 Sky bet
Yorkhill - Arkle 5/1 Skybet |
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Game of opinions, and happy for anyone to be sceptical on DOUVAN for 2017 Gold Cup, vs me being happy with my 20/1 betting slip.
Looking at stats for Gold Cup winners, the main ones are: # Ran in KG, Lexus or Hennessy in current season # 1st or 2nd LTO # 1st or 2nd prior festivals. # Grade 1 Chase win # 7 to 9 years of age # 1st run in Gold Cup # Won over 3 miles or more. Douvan has 4 of these stats in the bag already, and if WM wants to test he is the real deal in the KG, and he wins, then all stats covered. I am really keen to see his first race next season, and if he steps up in trip. I believe VAUTOUR could easily be placed to win the Champion Chase, if Douvan tested and successful over 2M4F and then 3M. All guesswork and opinion, but get it right and you end up with an edge, that's all AP betting is. |
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Don Poli 33/1 GC
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In my opinion Alpha des Obeax's performance was good enough to have won many a Stayers hurdle.
If he jumps a fence as well as a hurdle he could go right to the very top of the chasing tree. |
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^^^ not if Thistlecrack's goes chasing he won't :)
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Alpha in the RSA
Thistlecrack in the Gold Cup   |
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^^^ NICELY SWERVED, i'D EXPECT NO LESS.
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anyone having a bet now for 2017 with the way wp changes his mind is absolutely cracked and has no respect for money!!
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I'd be wary of having any ante post bet but agreed on Mullins. I'd no more back one of his than throw it down the drain. I note Vautour has been odds on for the 3 miler at Aintree with all except Paddy Power who have him at 3-1. Some Gold Cup horse.
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If the ground is good to soft/soft at Aintree Vautour will most likely to stay in his box than tackling the "Bowl" or the "Melling Chase" - coming from me has more credence than from his owner, trust me!
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So is Vautour still only 90% fit given that he has avoided another tilt at a prize over 3m+ at Aintree? Or was Willie simply being economical with the truth and in fact has decided that he won't stay?
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I think we'd all sleep easier in our beds if we ignored everything Willie Mullins says
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think it's pretty straightforward re Aintree - Mullins is trying to win UK trainers championship and Vautour may well have been saved until Punchestown otherwise.
He already has two potential winners of the Bowl and would have to take on a horse who has already beaten Vautour this season whereas in the Melling Chase he gets the chance to beat up some of the same horses he annihilated at Aintree once more. Hopefully Vibrato Valtat will stay on his feet and Clarcam can reproduce the form of his effort in the novices chase last year to give Vautour a bit more of a race but I would n't bet on it. |
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^annihilated at Cheltenham
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Oh I know his logic behind it, but it merely confirms that he puts his own personal targets, and prize money ahead of the horses/owners best interests. If he doesn't then run him over 3m at Puchestown he effectively be none the wiser as to what route he should map out for next season. Ricci is a bigger patsy for going along with it. He could simply drop Djakadam back in distance and move Vautour up in distance and have roughly the same chance of winning both races.
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Exactly that plus he doesn't give a monkeys for the racing public who are the ones who keep the show on the road. He's just a farmer seeking to milk as much as he can.
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I'm sorry to say RR is a typical banker ie someone who is part of a herd hence possesses a herd mentality and cannot think for himself; one backs RR horses at one's peril, beware!
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RR seems like a nice enough guy but what would he know? He's just an owner.He gets to write the cheques, walk his horses into the winner's enclosure, stand in for photos, invite his friends or bankers to his corporate box and stuff like that. But put him in an identity parade of his own 50 odd horses and how many would he pick out?
The reason he is such a successful owner is because his trainer makes all the decisions - where to buy, who to buy, how to train them, who rides them and where to run them - and five winners and a couple of seconds at Cheltenham for RR ,is proof positive that these decisions are best left to the professionals. |
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Which is fine all the while he keeps his trap shut and himself out of the limelight - but he does seem fond of gobbing off and getting in front of the cameras at the drop of a hat.
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^^^ to be fair Roger, Richie never drops his hat, its stuck to his head.
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Put a small stake in Faugheen at 2/1
Nothing is really sticking out to me but there's no way he will rerouted IMO and simply means withdrawing 1 unit less of my national winnings Will probably keep doing it on any big winners over the summer until something sticks out as value as atm there's nothing catching my eye |
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Rich Ricci interviewed at Sandown before Max Dynamite ran, and when asked how his National Hunt stars were, he mentioned Senewalk about second. Ahead of the likes of Vautour! Said he worked very well at the Curragh today.
The dogs have started barking early on this one. |
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Yes, Vroum Vroum Mag and Killutagh Vic for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
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Thistlerack @ 10/1 Gold Cup - Yorkhill @ 4/1 Arkle - Djakadam @ 20/1 Ryanair - Moon Racer @ 18/1 Supreme - Un De Sceaux@ 16/1 World Hurdle. All e/w and small stakes really, little and often with what I think is value.
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Glens Harmony 20/1 for the Mares Novice Hurdle and Invitation Only 16/1 for the Neptune Novices Hurdle.
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Spurs to finish above Arsenal next season
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