Mullins and the Gold Cup

Its a proper tribute to any trainer when people start listing off the races he hasn't won yet!
The Stayer's Hurdle should not be lumped in with the Gold Cup or Champ Chase in terms of prestige ..along with the Ryanair chase it was given centre stage to facilitate the extra day of the Cheltenham festival, prior to that it was on the support card for Gold Cup day.
Willie Mullins started from scratch,buying a yard and building up from having 6 horses in training in his first year(21 years ago I think it was). Compare that with Henderson( took over from Fred Winter), Pipe (from his father), Nicholls( serious Paul Barber backing) or Aiden O Brien(wife/father-in-law was champion trainer at that time). It's really only in the last 5 years that he has become dominant but his graph has being going gradually skywards since he started training.
Looking at your list above, Missed That was killed as a novice chaser, Mikael couldn't jump fences, Fiveforthree had glass legs and missed years through injury.Davenport was never top class was he? The likes of Briar Hill and Cousin Vinny were top bumper horses who were nothing special after that, as most top bumper horses turn out to be. Alexander Banquet was top class- he won Ireland's biggest chase, the Hennessy. Don Poli has just finished 3rd in a GC so how can you say he's not a potential GC horse?
I could give you a list as long as my arm of horses he's trained who have held their form into old age.The Fly was absolute top drawer as an 11yo when most top 2m hurdlers are gone at 9. Thousand Stars won a French grade 1 worth 233k only a few months ago at 12.Florida Pearl won 4 Irish Hennessy's including as a 12yo. Hedgehunter was second in a GC as a 10yo, the year after he won the Grand National. On His Own was beaten a whisker in a Gold Cup as a 10yo. The list is endless.
He may not have won a Gold Cup yet but his record in it is bloody good.Apart from that, what about what he's doing on the flat these days with his jumpers - so close to winning both a Melbourne Cup and Ascot Gold Cup in the last few years and 4 Royal Ascot winners from a handful of runners. The best trainer of a racehorse since Vincent O Brien.

Not knocking him, firstime, and agree he's a fine trainer. Just wondering why he's come up short so far in the two biggest races (allowing that the Stayers may not belong in the list).
Can't agree about Alexander Banquet - four chase wins from 22, only two RPR's above 160 - and I don't think many would say Don Poli's progressed much from his novice days, plus Pipe's dad was a bookie not a trainer, and Henderson was Winter's assistant but didn't take over his yard. However, semantics aside, there still seems to me to be an issue with how few of his aspiring superstars over fences actually reach the top, or near the top, of the tree.
Could be that Vautour and Douvan quash that accusation but, with Mullins nearing the veteran stage, I think it holds water at present, particularly if you compare his record in that respect with that of Paul Nicholls.

Pipe's grandfather was a bookie. His father is Martin.Don Poli has won a listed and a Grade 1 this year and was third in a GC, from 3 runs. That's not bad and yes it is progress from what he did as a novice.

But my point is that you are not comparing like with like. Henderson and Nicholls are really good trainers but their circumstances were much different in that they started off with serious investment behind them.The landscape was much different on both sides of the pond. Irish racing was very much the poor relation back then. They had the trainers and jockeys but not the owners with money in the numbers that Henderson and Nicholls had. Henderson was champion trainer 30 years ago yet didn't win a Gold Cup until 5 years ago and then won another.By "coming up short" for all those was it just circumstance or did he not really know how to train a GC horse until he reached 60? WPM has had 7 GC runner runner ups and a few 3rds thrown in for good measure. The fact he hasn't won one yet is hardly down to something he's doing wrong. He could win 5 before he retires, who knows.

Nicholls has won 4 Gold Cups, WPM has won 4 Champion Hurdles. Two great trainers.

Since there is only one each of those races every year one does not have sufficient numbers to come to any conclusions. By the first of March 2011 neither Paul Nicolls or Willie Mullins had won a Ch Hurdle and using the logic here and on other threads one could just as easily have then said that they were lousy trainers of hurdlers. They then won 5 of the next 6 renewals. It is crazy to draw conclusion from such small numbers/statistics.

Totally agree AA

Mullins isn't always the best at placing his horses. Who knows whether Vautour would have been his first Gold Cup winner? Who knows if Annie would have been completing the hat trick this year?

Eet he knows a bit more about placing horses than most. He even plundered a half a million pound race in Japan and only he got an idiot to ride another he would have won a Melbourne Cup with a handicap hurdler.

I think a trainer must have the appropriate horses for the appropriate races eg stayers for races like the CGC or Nationals.

He is the best at placing horses, the very best. Vautour wouldn't stay the GC trip if he started now. Annie is a good mare but this was her Champion Hurdle.She wouldn't have bothered Faugheen. She wasn't in the Fly's league either although he did under-perform in the 2014 CH so she may have gone close,though she couldn't get passed More Of That.

Think Vautour might if he started now stupid comment ffs!

Sorry Stevo1, didn't realise you were taking that statement at face value.Just to clarify then, yes he would win if he started now. Hope that clears this up

"He is the best at placing horses"

It only took WPM 11 weeks post the King George to decide the Gold Cup (GC) was not for Vautour despite repeatedly insisting that was the race Vautour had been trained for whilst most racing enthusiasts had that notion the Cheltenham hill might be a hill too far for Vautour to hike; the switching of Black Hercules (BH) from the 4 miler to the JLT was another puzzling one despite BH winning that race courtesy of misfortunes of the main principles and L'Ami Serge despite jumping into the lead 2 fences out but evidently not staying 20f. The switching of a proven non stayer (Shaneshill) at 24f to a 30f RSA was another very puzzling decision by WPM!

Cheers my mind is at rest.

Right, Vautour runs over his ideal distance and wins. Black Hercules shows enough pace to win the JLT. Shaneshill is held up and stays on past all bar the terrier Blacklion to be a good second in the RSA. Now I'm confused Impossible123. Are you saying he ran these three in the wrong races?

Yes, WPM ran these two horses in the wrong race.

BH won because he outstayed L'Ami Serge (a non stayer over 20f) and misfortunes with Outlander and Garde La Victoire (both fell) and Bristol De Mai (BDM), the good ground was against BDM - BH will not beat Killutagh Vic or BDM on soft going.

As for Shaneshill, he was beaten and outstayed by No More Heroes and Killultagh Vic over 21f and 24f respectively despite looking the winner 2f out; Shaneshill took it up in the RSA but was outstayed by Blaklion despite misfortunes to No More Heroes (tendon injury after jumping to the front 2 fences out) and More Of That (broke blood vessels).

Yeah, not sure how you could say Mullins put them in the wrong race, with 2 wins and a half length defeat.  He was also bang on about Yorkhill too.

My only criticism would be Felix Yonger was ran off his feet on good ground in the QMCC and Bellshill was never fast enough to win a Supreme.  Even with that though, neither would have been good enough to even place in the Ryanair or Neptune, but I do think those two races would have suited better than the ones they went for.

Valseur Lido was definitely in the wrong race, but that was a Giggi call, and Mullins desperately wanted him in the Gold Cup, so he can't take the blame over that one.

Also, Impossible, the JLT wasn't merely handed to Black Hercules; the only luck he had was Zabana missing the start.  He outstayed L'Ami Serge fair and square (there is no luck in that), he was always holding Bristol de Mai and Garde/Outlander falling, well that's the name of the game.

Yes, WPM ran these two horses in the wrong race.

That's a very bold statement Impossible (you must be very hard to pleasE), considering one won well, and one was beaten half a length.  You could argue that through Definitely Red, Blaklion had Black Hercules held, as he beat him much more easily.

I believe Yorkhill was rerouted solely due to the presence of Min; I also believe Yorkhill won with the aid of of Barry Geraghty plotting a wide course.

Bellshill had no credential to be pitted against Min, Altior and others in the Supreme - he was the sacrificial "lamb"!

Vautour in the Ryanair was a penalty "kick" - stayed up and win - no two ways about it!

Valseur Lido (VL) ran in the JLT because of the ground and to minimise the GC field. If ground had been soft/heavy VL would have had a good chance but would still finish behind Don Poli and Djakadam in the GC.

BH - very possibly, but Outlander was going well, and had LS stayed BH would not have caught him. Very unlucky with Zabana!

BH and BDM could do battle again in the Manifesto Chase at Aintree, and the ground most likely be soft given the forecast.

Impossible, you went out on a limb prior to Cheltenham saying Shaneshill couldn't possibly stay 3m. Why - because you said he was "outstayed" by Killultagh Vic and Thistlecrack over 3m in Punchestown last when he was third,with No More Heros and Roi De Francs behind. Now we know that he was beaten by 2 top class horses, outclassed rather than outstayed, they are simply better than him. But even now you are clinging to your confirmation bias that he doesn't stay 3m ,despite the evidence that he does.

Sweet Jesus Impossible you need to clear your mind out. Do you think every horse who fell, unseated, broke down, burst blood vessels, raced wide, got interfered with, didn't stay etc etc, should be considered a rightful winner and all those who did win shouldn't really get the credit for it.Its starting to sound like you are justifying every horse you backed with the argument " well I was right, It's just that the results were wrong"

No More Heroes was not right in the race hence the below par performance. However, Shaneshill looked the likely winner in that race two out but faded, and he did the same against No More Heroes in the Navan Novice Hurdle ie took it up but again outstayed.

BH is a better horse over 24f than 20f as I believe time will prove. As for Shaneshill the Mildmay Novice Chase at Aintree (if he turns up) will prove me right or wrong; regards Thistlecrack, he had improved beyond recognition!

Yorkhill is a good horse but I know which one I'll back should Yanworth and Yorkhill do battle again over the same trip and weight because I was not overly impressed by Yorkhill's win over 007 at Sandown.

Mar 29, 2016 -- 10:51PM, firstimevisor wrote:

Sweet Jesus Impossible you need to clear your mind out. Do you think every horse who fell, unseated, broke down, burst blood vessels, raced wide, got interfered with, didn't stay etc etc, should be considered a rightful winner and all those who did win shouldn't really get the credit for it.Its starting to sound like you are justifying every horse you backed with the argument " well I was right, It's just that the results were wrong"

Not aimed at impossible but I think the last sentence is one we should all bear in mind - you have to be prepared to change even the most strident opinion on the basis of new evidence.

I thought - and still think - that the Yorkhill win over 007 was the best single piece of novice hurdle form either side of the Irish Sea pre Cheltenham - not so much through 007 (who nevertheless won well at Musselburgh subsequently) but through Agrapart who absolutely hacked up in the Betfair Hurdle and whose shrewd trainer stated afterwards that he had ran well in the Tolworth.

I also thought Ballyalton and Minella Rocco did n't jump well enough to win Festival races but clearly I need to revise that opinion.

Impossible, I fear you may be fighting a losing battle.

Shaneshill stayed on well up the hill and fully justified Mullins' decision to run him in the race.  It was the best race of his career, and the combination of good ground and the step up in trip was the key to it.  The hurdle race at Punchestown had no bearing on the RSA.  He didn't fade away in the RSA, there were about 4 in a line jumping the last and he only went down half a length.

Black Hercules may well be a 3 miler in the future, but at the moment he is a top draw 2.5 miler.  Over 3m he was rated 147 when he beat Definitily Red, and over 2.5 he is 158 having beat a good Grade 1 field.  I have no doubt L'Ami Serge and Brisol De Mai have big futures ahead of them, and BH beat them with a bit in hand.

I had the 4 miler blinkers on all year, but when Mullins chose the JLT, and I watched his races again, you could see why they chose it.  He didn't scoot away from Definitely Red like he should have done over 3m, and he blew away Sambremont in Ireland this year over 20f.  He clearly has lots of pace.

I genuinely find it hard to understand how they were in the wrong race.

wellchief

I do have a clinical view as far as horse racing and betting are concerned I'm afraid, and sometimes I do get it wrong big time nonetheless I always back my opinions with money.

Shaneshill produced his best jumping in the RSA hence the result. I firmly believe he'd have won the JLT too on that performance given his form over hurdles. But Black Hercules is definitely a better horse over 20f+ in my opinion - he does not have the pace for 20f - and WPM think so too hence that 4 miler entry. The reason given by WPM for the switch back was BH was a bit "fresh" in his previous race (24f), the cause of the fall.

I'd like to see L'Ami Serge back over 16f (Douvan free just yet), and if he could jump as well as he did in the JLT he could beat the likes Vaniteux, Sizing John, Garde La Victoire and others I'd think - he just did not stay 20f.

Horse racing is a wonderful game - that's all it is - with vastly genuine, rational and differing opinions, and the vindication with a win bet is the icing on the cake usually - the only exception is the demise of a horse eg No More Heroes, despite winning a bundle in that race.

Impossible I had to re-read your posts as I cannot believe anybody can be that blinkered (putting it politely).

I would say 8 festival winners shows WPM placed his horses in exactly the right races. To suggest otherwise is utter folly and smacks of supreme pocket talk.

Here we go again, forgive me if I'm nitpicking but its just that I can't ignore that sentence in the middle of that post -" he does not have the pace for 20f - and WPM think so too hence that 4 miler entry". But he has shown he has the pace for 20f. He's just won the JLT. How much more proof do you need? He probably stays 4m too but nobody knows if he'd have won the 4 miler yet he has shown definitively that he has the pace for 20f, whether you agree or not.And the decision to run in the JLT has been 100% vindicated.

Annie is a good mare but this was her Champion Hurdle. She wouldn't have bothered Faugheen. She wasn't in the Fly's league either although he did under-perform in the 2014 CH so she may have gone close,though she couldn't get passed More Of That.

Faugheen's performance in the Champion last year was good but not out of this world. Artic Fire was closing him down quickly. Annie won just as easily. The Fly was never as good at Cheltenham which shows how good a champion he was to win two races there. What happened over 3 miles is irrelevant. Like I said. Who knows?

impossible123
     29 Mar 16 21:57 

Yorkhill is a good horse but I know which one I'll back should Yanworth and Yorkhill do battle again over the same trip and weight because I was not overly impressed by Yorkhill's win over 007 at Sandown.


Forget the wide route, Yorkhill gagged up that day and won with stacks in hand, absolutely 100% outclassed Yanworth, simple as that.

No worries Impossible, as you say everyone is entitled to their own opinions.

I think L'Ami is over his perfect trip now and no need to go back to 16f, I just think he was beaten by a better horse on the day.

I'd actually back him to reverse the form with Black Hercules if they metbat Aintree because I think the sharper track will suit him. I'd also fancy Shaneshill to turn the form round with Blaklion over 3m at Aintree for the same reason.

Good Morning

My apology if my recent posts offended other posters and racing enthusiasts here. I know I can be fairly forthright in my views and opinions on certain things but I can also be receptive to new ones too post the event.

wellchief
I hope you are right about Shaneshill at Aintree because the horse has run its guts out without being recompensed accordingly - I'm still seething with WPM not running him in the Neptune last year; I backed him at 80 here (only £2) when money came for BH in the JLT somehow I knew he was not going to win despite travelling the better of the two 2 out.

duffy
I shall give Yanworth another chance should it meet Yorkhill again on equal terms and the same distance; I believe the wide route contributed to his defeat because BG underestimated the ability of the latter. Hopefully time will prove one way or the other for certain.

charwell
A trainer can win any race if he/she has enough depths in reserve for that race eg WPM in the Champion Hurdle; WPM could have won the Champion Chase if Vautour had run there I believe, and probably the Ryanair with Valseur Lido - 3 wins in 3 races instead of 2.

firstimevisor
We'll have to agree to disagree on that. But I hope BH will prove me wrong when he runs against the likes of Outlander, BDM (soft), Shaneshill, Killultagh Vic over 20f.

Hopefully Aintree could shed more light on the above, if so, humble pie from me in advance.

Yorkhill and Yanworth are 5/4 and 6/4 respectively with PP for the Mersey Novices Hurdle at Aintree next week, with Sportsbook 1/1 and 7/4 - looks like a rematch is looking a strong probability.

Another interesting race could be upon us next week at Aintree: Shaneshill could be taking on Kylemore Lough, Outlander, Seeyouatmidnight, RDF, Monksland, etc in the Growise Novice Chase (25f) - Shaneshill is 6/4 with PP and Skybet, only 5/4 with
Sportsbook.

I shall donate £10 each to a charity of 'duffy' and 'wellchief' choice if I'm proven incorrect.

^ race has 5 times in 11 years by horses who contested RSA, so 6 out of 11 did n't plus only just over 3 weeks between the two races this year and with the two RSA favs probably underperforming, I'd be inclined to think outside the box for this race.

I am hoping Alan King's mare L'Unique turns up fresh with the mares allowance and hopefully on goodish ground - her course record is 11 including a Grade 1 - albeit over hurdles and a few years ago now.

She'd also have the option of the Manifesto Novices Chase on Day One - but that looks a deeper race to me - there must be some doubt Kylemore Lough and Outlander will turn up at Aintree so soon after Fairyhouse.

Having lost a few quid on Shaneshill antepost in the JLT, I was pretty annoyed that they switched him to the RSA, as I felt he wouldnt get the trip. But I feel that once again WPM was right, and I was wrong.

Impossible, you said it yourself... he produced his best jumping performance in the RSA. Thats because they went a slower gallop and that suited him. I very much doubt he would have jumped as well in the pace of the JLT.

I can't see how any racing could criticise WPM after the way he each horse ran.

I agree with CCM re the reason for Shaneshill running in the RSA and said so on another thread about 10 days back.

Over 21f and on a course like Cheltenham Yorkhill would beat Yanwoth all day every day.

Impossible everyone is entitled to an opinion but come on its your opinion v WM's. But of course and I repeat you are entitled to your opinion and it would be even duller here if we all agreed all of the time.

With regards to Shaneshill, did WPM not say Shaneshill would be rerouted to the Arkle should something untoward had happened to Douvan? I found that statement difficult to fathom given Shaneshill inconsistent jumping ability. But I do not disagree the step up in trip in the RSA might/could have brought upon an improvement in his jumping nevertheless, despite looking the likely winner two out in the RSA Shaneshill was once again outstayed just as he was in the Navan (2014) and Daily Mirror (2015) - that is my unwavering opinion.

I respect WPM as a trainer but do not always agree with his placing of his runners eg Shaneshill (Supreme 2015/RSA 2016), Bellshill (Supreme 2016) and Black Hercules (JLT 2016), irrespective of outcome.

We shall see about Yanworth and Yorkhill when/if they meet at Aintree - the jury is still out, I believe.

Impossible

I think that you are  correct to say that shaneshill was ultimately outstayed, but it is all relative, he ran away from the others but yes he showed a vulnerability to a real strong stayer in the end.

I put the performance in the same bracket as AP in the World hurdle where it would be wrong to say she didn't get home but you'd have to have a reservation against a real "thorough" stayer that runs its race against it.

duffy

You are correct - it is all relative - unlike me, there is no grey area ie either a horse stays or it does not - no ifs, no buts - that is me I'm afraid!

I also detest individual/s from any profession - lauded or not by the public/admirers - particularly this one eg WPM/RW/RR, for being indecisive, disrespectful, deceitful and disingenuous resulting in a financial loss to the majority but gain to a select few and/or their "friends".

Got to go with Duffy on this one sorry impossible.

By your logic it sounds like every horse that doesn't win doesn't stay.

Did Djakadam fail to stay the Gold Cup trip? The Don powered away up the hill away from Djakadam much more than Blaklion did over Shaneshill, so that means Djakadam didn't stay, when we all know he does?

@Arkle, I'd rather have Yanworth all day in a re-match against Yorkhill, the way I saw it Ruby gave him the best possible ride while in a very rare occasion Barry gave his horse an extra mile to travel by going the widest route for no reason. Yanworth was closing him down and with a cleaner jump 3rd last that might've been the difference. Yanworth is all class, Yorkhill looks a stayer but over 2 and half and shorter Yanworth will take all the beating even from the this quality crop of novices - except Altior who is a monster in the making.

Despite Djakadam finishing runner-up two years running in the CGC he definitely stays the trip - it was evident last year in the soft - but not only does DC stay the CGC distance DC is also a better horse. However, with regards to Shaneshill, he was beaten over 21f in the Navan by NMH having cruised up to take the lead after the last, looked the likely winner 2 out in the Daily Mirror (24f) won by Killultagh Vic, and led after the last in this year's RSA (24) but again headed before the line.

I can accept to not win after taking the lead at the last in the Navan (21f) was inconclusive, going well but tanking with 2f to run in the Daily Mirror (24f) was revealing, and leading but not winning against Blaklion - inferior hurdle form and rating - after the last in the RSA (24f again) to me was evidently clear Shaneshill does not stay 24f in a truly run race.

At Cheltenham I'm sure the horse just runs out of fuel enough to make him vulnerable to a superior stayer. I'll be interested to see how he gets on if he goes 3 miles at Aintree.

timtin

Have to disagree, Yorkhill wasn't doing a tap on the run to the line and won with loads in hand, he also has stacks of pace IMO, personally I'd back him before Altior over 2 miles. I know we haven't seen him over 2 miles against the best novices but as good as Altior looked, I got an even better impression from Yorkhill's performance and have a hunch he's just a better horse and reckon he'd find the 2 miles no problem.

duffy

Sorry to butt in, but I'd back Altior against Yorkhill over 2 miles on good going in a truly run race anywhere any day because the former has done it impressively thrashing Min, Beveur D'air and company in the Supreme and Open Eagle in the William Hill but the latter's win over 007 in the Tolworth did not overly impress me; the BHA has given a rating of 155 to Altior and 151 to Yorkhill.

I've been dying to take 5's on Shaneshill at Aintree, but have resisted. Good ground and a flat, speed based 3m will be perfect for him, but Aintree antepost is probably a quicker way to the poorhouse than Cheltenham antepost!  Same with L'ami Serge too, really want to take the 4's but don't know if he's running.

Next year, I do think Shaneshill would struggle with the extra 2f in a Gold Cup, so I don't know what they'd do. They have huge talent in the Ryanair now, so I'd keep Shane for Aintree and Punchestown if he were mine.

On the other debate, I'd take Yorkhill over Yanworth every day of the week on good ground, and I'd take Yanworth on soft.

Yorkhill over 2m vs Altior? I'd have no idea, but possibly side with Altior. Both are strong stayers but once Altior gets his head in front I get the impression he'd be bloody tough to get past; proper battler with class to spare - I massivley underrated him before the Supreme.

Sorry Cyclops, this thread has gone very off topic from Mullins and the Gold Cup!

Wouldn't say that, Yorkhill could be a GC winner in a couple of years time

I was wondering, wellchief, but these things happen!
I was interested in people's response to the question posed but, other than firstimevisor's views, things have veered away.
Maybe it's not of interest but to me it's fascinating that he's now so dominant yet three of the big four prizes at Cheltenham elude him, particularly the Gold Cup.

With Mullins and the Gold Cup it's a tough one. We've recently had a golden era of staying chasers like Kauto, Denman, Imperial Commander, Long Run etc and Mullins had nothing in his yard to trouble them.

In recent years he has only really had Djakadam and Vautour imo that were/could be genuine contenders.

He did manage to get On His Own to a shorthead, which was some acheivement and they may regret not appealing the result afterwards.

Because he wins some "soft" grade 1's in Ireland, people expect those horses to take on the best of them English in recent years, when they were never good enough in the first place.

Not having a go at Irish racing, but he won Grade 1's over 3m with Quel Esprit and Kempes, and they were never Gold Cup class.

I think he will win it sooner or later, as he will the QMCC. For years he was a bumper and hurdler specialist with very few festival Chase winners. However recently with Cooldine, Sir Des Champs, Don Poli, Vautour,  Douvan, UDS etc, his chase record is improving fast.

Also, should say that for all the years that Ruby had the pick of Mullins and Nicholls horses, I can't ever remember him picking a Mullins one once (although I may be wrong).

Just shows that it is really only in the last year or two that he has had the ammunition to have a proper go at it.

Killultagh Vic, Yorkhill, Nichols Canyon and Artic Fire to name four would be my future prospective candidates for the GC if WPM needs help in this department, and they all are serious contenders I'd think.

hows cyrus darius doing these days, back next year is he?

Its true to say that Mullins has only really concentrated on producing chasers in recent years and most of his best novice hurdlers are now being sent down the chasing route and therefore you would think that he is bound to win a GC (and a CC for that matter) sooner rather than later. That said, he could have a lot of very good chasers in any given season but if he doesn't have the best one (which he obviously didn't this season) then the wait will go on. Next season he could feasibly have 5 or 6 darts to throw at the gold cup with not one definite candidate but with all of the following potential candidates:

Vautour: Either drops back down CC or goes GC (him and Douvan interchangeable)
Douvan: See above
Don Poli: Most likely of the Mullins to definitely line up in the GC at this stage unless he concentrates on national success which seems unlikely at this stage
Djakadam: Two good rums in the last 2 gold cups but is he good enough to win it? Still think he will go for gold again for one last time if he shapes up well in advance.
Valseur Lido: Very likely to go for gold cup, not sure he is good enough to win a GC but may have place claims
Black Hercules: Goes either Ryanair or GC, at a guess I'd say GC if Mullins has an outstanding candidtae for the Ryanair
Killultagh Vic: I imagine this will be Mullins outstanding candidate for the Ryanair which will free up Vautour and Douvan to split races and take a CC and GC bid between them.
Outlander: Ryanair most likely
Shaneshill: Ryanair most likely, with KV giving Mullins a strong hand in the race

So at this stage I'd guess:
Gold Cup: Vautour, Don Poli, Djakadam, Valseur Lido, Black Hercules
Ryanair: Killultagh Vic, Shaneshill, Outlander
CC: UDS, Douvan

Nichols Canyon?
When was the last Gold Cup winner a former flat racer?
Alverton in the eighties? (May have forgotten one).

I don't get the theory of vautour going for the GC, in my eyes he's got less chance than this year. At the end of the day they decided he wouldn't stay the trip, they didn't decide he would stay but wouldn't beat Djak because if they thought he'd stay they'd have to think he'd win.

Deciding to run in it just because they now know Djak isn't good enough wouldn't be a valid reason to run and they'll still think he won't stay.

I think that Douvan will be sent in search of the GC and vautour the CC.

Depends if you think they are a bunch of liars or straight dealers? If you think they're pretty honest they said they rerouted Vautour because his work was poor in the run up and that the horse was only at around 90% of what they wanted to see. So according to them they went for the easier option. Presumably if the horse sparkles next year and is 100% they will go for the race they desperately wanted to all along.

I cannot understand why so many assume Djakadam somehow isn't up to winning a Gold Cup. He's been second in two above average GCs yet is still only a 7 yo. I thought he ran an absolute cracker again this year after the fall before that. He is 2 years younger than Don Cossack and Coneygree and these are the 3 horses which, right now ,are the benchmarks for next years race. If I had to pick one of these 3 today it would be Djakadam.

Thistlecrack will surely go the novice route and I'd safely say Vautour will go Ryanair again.Don Poli will have another crack. Killultagh Vic would be the only one of this year's novices that I'd rate as a contender, at this stage.There's every chance Douvan is going to become a serious contender. If not then I don't think next year's Gold Cup will be any better than the previous two runnings and I would think anything that can beat Djakadam will win it.

Thistlecrack will be 9 next year, if he takes to fences he'll be running in the GC next year, coneygree will have paved the way for novices and thistlecrack has time against him.

agree about thistlecrack,its gold cup or world hurdle

Thistlecrack is one hell of a horse for sure but he'll have to jump fences like a pro to win the GC as a novice. They don't all jump like Coneygree.

Agreed, and if he doesn't I think they'll abandon the chase route and revert back to hurdles.

wont take much for him to go back to hurdles,thats if he even goes over jumps

I think Djakadam is an excellent benchmark for Mullins to use in assessing his gold cup horses. He would have been good enough to win some previous gold cups but it would be ludicrous to drop him to the Ryanair as some have suggested simply because he hasn't won the race in 2 attempts. Second in 2 very good gold cup races is no mean feat in itself and he deserves another shot next season where he may get the softer ground he needs. For now he remains Mullins best chance unless either one of Douvan or Vautour can prove they can see out a trip past what many would see as their optimum distance.

Could anyone remember if WPM ever had a novice fencer only over 16f going for the KG and/or the GC the following season? If not, I doubt very much Douvan would be aimed at the GC but instead tasked with recovering the CC throne for WPM. Hence, my two most credible new candidates would be Killultagh Vic and Outlander, alongside Don Poli (Giggistown, and too young for the GN) plus possibly Djakadam, again playing 2nd fiddle to either Coneygree, Cue Card, Don Cossack or More Of That even if the ground is soft.

As for Thistlecrack if connections are serious about the GC they must put him over fences asap to give him the best chance possible.

I was thinking that impossible. Must be tempting for the owners to mop up at Aintree and Punchestown over hurdles seeing as he hasn't hard anything like a hard race this season but I'd be very tempted to give him at least one and possibly two low key novice chase outings instead and then stick him away.

firstimevisor

Djakadam is an admirable horse but how many horses have run twice finishing second both times or even placed and then gone on to win the race? As well as the returning victors there are usually strong new challengers every year. No reason why the horse can't be placed again but you'd have to think that camp Mullins must think their chance of winning with him has significantly receded.

I think Djakadam will struggle to win a Gold Cup too, especially as he's had a chance on both soft and good now.

Whilst I don't think this year's novices will pose too much threat, add Thistlecrack, Vautour, Coneygree and Valseur Lido to Don Cossack and Cue Card, I can see at least one of them finishing in front of Jack.

In terms of the novices, I highly rate Black Hercules and Killultagh Vic, but I think they'll be Ryanair bound.

Either way, I think we had a golden age with Kauto, Denman, Imperial Commander etc, and after a few years of poor renewals, I think we're right in the middle of a golden age again.

The vast majority of national hunt horses stay 3 miles. By their very nature they are stayers. 2 miles is not a sprint.Sprints are for speed horses at Royal Ascot in June. At the top of the food chain the best horses choose their own races while those of lesser ability avoid them as much as possible by going up or down in distance. There are plenty of races around to create many happy outcomes.It is not wise to put national hunt horses into a box as to having a specific distance. Faugheen began life as a point-to-pointer and 3m hurdler.He would be a group standard horse on the flat if they went down that road with him. Kauto Star, after winning a Gold Cup, went on to slaughter the best 2 milers around in the Tingle Creek the following year.Of course there are some that don't stay, but the vast majority do stay 3m. It gets trickier after 3 miles but ,again, I'd say most do.
The fact that Douvan has been kept to 2m thus far is of no significance...its a case of 6 of one, half a dozen of the other as to what distance he runs for this season.

Eternal, The Fellow is one I can think of off hand. He was second as a 6yo, second as a 7yo, 4th to Jodami at 8 and won, beating Jodami, at 9. Desert Orchid ran in loads before he won as a veteran.
Next year Jack will still be a young horse by GC standards. Of course he can win it, there may be something to beat him, but he has a better chance of winning than any other.

I can't agree with that firstimer. 2 milers given the right circumstances can eke out their stamina to longer distances but it depends on a variety of factors with class being the most important. A horse which is best at 2 miles which gets two and a half will often win a champion hurdle as has been shown in recent years. Put them in a low enough grade and most would also win at three. Doesn't mean they truly stay three miles. Just that they can lob along at a pace which is way below their ability level and thus appear to stay the distance. Until they do stay the jury is out in top class over 3 miles and especially over the gold cup distance. What Faugheen and Douvan would do over the distance in top class is conjecture.

Occasionally you do get a special one like Kauto but don't stick the rose coloured specs on about him. He wasn't up and down in distance like a yo yo and from memory didn't win a Tingle Creek after winning a Gold Cup. In that season I seem to remember him winning the two and a half miler at Aintree followed by a weak renewal of the Betfair before taking the Tingle Creek. After whch he went up in distance permanently.

Yes your right about Kauto Star..he won the Tingle Creek before the GC, not after. I got the seasons wrong but my point remains the same. When he went up in distance, ie to 3m+,there was no need to drop him back in trip ever again. He was the best around over any trip but Gold Cups are the holy grail.
I cant think of too many champion hurdlers who didn't stay 3m. To compare horses with human athletes, would you think many 3000 meter runners wouldnt stay 5000m?

I'd give a hand if we can relocate to a parallel universe and Douvan wouldn't be owned by RR. The mention of him in the same breath of Faugheen is becoming obnoxious. As for top class racing over 3 miles I'd give my other hand to see Faugheen in the GC and see his versatility, if he truly has it or not at the top level of Chase stayers.. Unfortunately he's owned by a clueless banker and trained by a pragmatic man who listens to a jockey that wants to ride all the good horses in different races. These trio couldn't care less what racing needs in order to raise its profile. All they want is win another race so they can claim the Britain trainers title, which no one cares about outside of Mullins family. Hell of an operation.

Back to the topic, Mullins won't win GC, at least for couple of years, because he will keep Faugheen over hurdles. His background of a pointer indicates he'll relish the trip, of course he needs to be trained to relax early as in recent times he's been used of going hurdling pace so he'll need to settle down when tackling larger obstacles. Vautour did a far better job of what I anticipated in almost winning the KG and like we've seen Ruby doing with Kauto, he can win the GC with non-stayers in years when the strength in stayers depth is lacking but this is the era of Coneygree and Don Cossack who are not only out and out stayers but top class horses, so that won't work even with the best ride that Ruby can give..

firstimer

I cant think of too many champion hurdlers who didn't stay 3m.


At the highest level which is what we are talking about I can't think of too many certainly in recent times who even ran over 3 miles.

To compare horses with human athletes, would you think many 3000 meter runners wouldn't stay 5000m?

That's an interesting question. I was probably marginally more talented but gravitated towards boxing and paradoxically academia but my brother was a grafter and he was on his day an international class age group distance runner until the Africans took over. It's so difficult to compare between disciplines. Between species it becomes that much more difficult. 3000 metres isn't really an event as such and for illustrative purposes I'd say that 1500 to 5000 is so much more informative. Occasionally you'll get a Moorcroft who sets the 5000 world alight having been a very good 1500 man. Maybe he was your Kauto. Most of the rest a la Ovett make a decent fist of it but can't quite make the leap to top class at the longer distance. Given the speed needed to run 1500 well but stamina requirements for rounds in championship events someone like Mo Farah who specialises in 5000 and 10000 would probably have had a very good stab at a championship 1500 given his one off ability.

Even so even your great 800 metres men would often train over very long distances for their long runs. I remember Coe's Sunday run would be a long steady 15-20 miler.

His background of a pointer indicates he'll relish the trip,

I've seen a pointing effort of his on you tube and he seemed to finish full of running but the same question raises its head. What did he beat? If he beat horses which went on to be rated in the 150's under rules then it seems reasonable to assert that he'd have a fine chance of getting home over 3 miles. If they were closer to 100 types then the jury remains out until he actually does it on the course over the distance. Sure the Gold Cup is the pinnacle but the Champion Hurdle isn't chump change in terms of kudos.

Off topic again sorry, but if I owned a horse my holy grail races would be a QMCC or a Champion Hurdle.

Just love seeing the best 2 milers ping fences at speed.

I love the Gold Cup, but I'd love a Champion Chaser more.

On Mullins and the Gold Cup, because most of his are French breds, I'm recent years, outside of Kauto and Long Run, I can't think of too many Gold Cup winners that raced in France.

That could be another reason because alot race at a young age over there and are often knackered when they reach about 10 over here.

* in recent years (auto correct!)

@EO, personally I think the CH is the pinnacle, its been around for much longer than the official Cheltenham 1927 have you believe and that test of speed and the class it takes to win any one of those its just far more exciting than the GC who has been won by proper donkeys in the past. I'm only saying that Faugheen already won it, the questions is whether he can achieve a greater feat in staying the GC trip in such a powerful era of stayers that has probably been in our lifetime. Thistlecrack will go that route but he's already a stayer and if he can accomplish the double it'll be a great achievement but for me, the question of whether Faugheen can conquer it is much more interesting and would give the sport alot of publicity and would be great to talk these things like we do in other sports where there are more ambitious trainers/managers/players than we have in racing where its all about cherry picking the targets and never having any resolution for the fans that don't watch it necessarily to bet on it but for the pleasure to see what a horse is capable of, especially since there are no downsides for geldings as that make it somewhat understandable(Frankel 1/half mile which he never took so that he attracts breeders that want more speed than stamina, as Galileo already had that need covered, etc.)

Yes, there have been disappointing Gold Cup winners but also Champion Hurdlers. Flakey Dove, Hors de Loi, For Auction, Collier Bay, Make a Stand, Sublimity. None of those scream top class.

And, as for the 2 mile Champion, while it's a great race and, this year, an epic one, the strength in depth has been, and will always be, desperate. As Ruby Walsh says, no-one goes out to breed a 2 mile chaser and so few excel at the trip.

I think, timtim, your Faugheen dream is just that; never heard anyone discussing him going over fences since he reverted to 2 miles. And, if not the coming season, then it won't happen. But then, to my knowledge, only Dawn Run has ever turned to chasing as a reigning Champion Hurdler which, in effect, Faugheen is.

At the highest level which is what we are talking about I can't think of too many certainly in recent times who even ran over 3 miles.

Jezki and The Fly absolutely laughed at them in a Punchestown grade 1 last season.
Annie Power would have won a Stayers Hurdle by 5 lengths if More Of That hadn't spoiled the party.
Faugheen has shown a few times that 3m is no problem (I wouldn't think 4m would bother him either).

Thats the last 4 CH winners. Any number of them came back to 2m after proving themselves over much further - Istabraq, Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca, Rock On Ruby etc. Dawn Run could beat everything from 2m to 3m 2,hurdles or fences.
Not many have the pace to beat the best over 2m but most of the top 2 milers have the stamina for 3m

I'm with Timtim on the Faugheen issue. This animal looked the more likely to go chasing of he and Vautour after they both won at Cheltenham as novices. Since then their paths have taken what many see as unnatural directions for both. Faugheen won a neptune at 2m5f and Vautour a supreme at 2m. At that point the natural progression you would have thought was going to be Vautour for the champion and Faugheen to go chasing with a gold cup being his long term aim (particularly given his history as a p2p and having previously won at Limerick over 3m in heavy). Even Mullins comments after those races had you believe he though more of Vautour and that he would be going the champion route. However Punchestown changed everything when I think Faugheen must have confirmed his superiority to Mullins for them to effectively switch targets for the next season.

Faugheen would be a fascinating project for the public to watch over fences and the public love nothing better than to see multi talented horses excel in different disciplines over different distances. Beating up the same horses over the same distance, at the same tracks year in year out might keep Walsh and Mullins happy, but for Joe Public it becomes monotonous after a while. I honestly don't see what else Faugheen can prove over 2m hurdle races that will elevate his status any more and I too would love to see Mullins throwing caution to the wind for once and sending him chasing next season. He probably has 2 seasons left at the top level so it's now or never.

In reality it is not going to happen as Mullins is a risk averse character and it was this same fear of looking silly that prevented him from running Vautour in the gold cup this year. He either initially made a poor judgement call on Vautours staying ability all season or he simply bottled it and went with winning a soft Ryanair. I would be leaning towards the latter. He will always do what is right by Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh first and foremost and that means hoovering up grade 1 races no matter their prestige or status. If he hasn't popped Faugheen over a few fences to at least explore the possibility of going this route then he is not doing what is best by the horse. The apple of Mullins eye was always Hurrican Fly and Douvan seems to have taken over this mantle. Him placing both of these horses above Faugheen and Vautour for example may seem slightly illogical to a lot of people based on racecourse performance alone, but I reckon they must be easier animals to work at home for Mullins to speak so affectionately about them.

This is what Mullins said directly after Faugheen won the Neptune:

Mullins is already looking forward to seeing his charge over the larger obstacles next season, saying: "He looks a fair sort. We always thought he was a chaser in the making and I'd prefer to go chasing with him next year.

"We'll just see what next season brings. When he blundered at the third-last, I thought maybe that was it.

"But he picked up and went away. He looks a bit above average.

"We weren't sure which race to go for as we had a good one for the two-mile race and a good one for the three-mile, so he just slotted in here really."

Asked to compare Faugheen with his Supreme victor Vautour, Mullins added: "Vautour is a different level."



And yet he is lauded for his judgement! Mullins changes his mind more than the weather itself changes so expect more of the same between now and next Cheltenham.

I thought Faugheen had an historic issue with his back that counted against his jumping fences??

he doesn't acts as if this is a sport like any other where the fans and random watchers matter, where there is a competition and a resolution at the end of season. He acts as if its Mullins sport and does what he and Ruby wants, at least with RR horses, which because of their strong late partnership means most of his good ones in the yard. Yes its your job as a horse racing trainer to go for races that your horses can win, but once a champion accomplished that and ou know from his background that he could do even more then its time to be ambitious. However, money are the only thing that matter in horse racing, no one in the business cares one iota about the lovers of this sport, the ones that don't want to see horses avoid targets but put two of them against each other even if you own them both, even if you train them both. Its a shame really but I think BHA and IE turf club made this possible by creating so many G1s, instead of just raising the prize money for lower level racing that are at about the same value as 20 years ago..

Jezki and The Fly absolutely laughed at them in a Punchestown grade 1 last season.
Annie Power would have won a Stayers Hurdle by 5 lengths if More Of That hadn't spoiled the party.
Faugheen has shown a few times that 3m is no problem (I wouldn't think 4m would bother him either).

Thats the last 4 CH winners. Any number of them came back to 2m after proving themselves over much further - Istabraq, Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca, Rock On Ruby etc. Dawn Run could beat everything from 2m to 3m 2,hurdles or fences.
Not many have the pace to beat the best over 2m but most of the top 2 milers have the stamina for 3m


Point conceded about them running over 3 miles. Very illustrative with the ones you cite. Like I said of course they will stay the distance if they are clearly better. Jezki and The Fly did laugh at them but then the third was rated mid 140's and the fourth was kicked off the track in the stayers. Similarly most of the others you list either didn't run over 3 miles (Istabraq) didn't ever win over 3 miles or were clearly diminished.

Vautour did win well over 3 miles but it wasn't a great race. If pushed though I'd rather have him over the distance than Douvan. I find it hard to think he'd have beaten Thistlecrack though.

I can't agree with that firstimer. 2 milers given the right circumstances can eke out their stamina to longer distances but it depends on a variety of factors with class being the most important. A horse which is best at 2 miles which gets two and a half will often win a champion hurdle as has been shown in recent years. Put them in a low enough grade and most would also win at three. Doesn't mean they truly stay three miles. Just that they can lob along at a pace which is way below their ability level and thus appear to stay the distance.

EO,isn't it just the same then as when they run over 2m. Whether its over 2m or 3m the good ones race within their comfort zone and produce a superior turn of foot at the end.

Trigger and Timtin, what are you expecting with Faugheen? It will be a challenge in itself to get the horse back to regain his crown next year. Champion Hurdles are hard won. There are thousands of hurdlers in training so to be the best of those is a great achievement. It might tickle Joe Public's imagination if he started chasing as a 9 yo but is it really, as you think, in the horses best interests or is it your own interests?

in our interest? what do you mean? I just want to see the horse do what he was meant from the start, what his breeders intended, what his trainers, even Mullins, intended in the beginning. I want Mullins to win a GC, I think he can do it with Faugheen. Lots of people that know this horse history will say the same. He already jumped fences over p2p, he's not a natural hurdler, only in his last race he started to jump them like a proper one but only until the last where he did what Mullins described as "disregard for hurdles, sticking him over fences will make him respect things more".

He won't gain speed with age, the GC at a slower pace and if he settles will suit him much better. Its in the horse best interest, if he stays racing lets say till 12yo to race at longer trips at that veteran age and the 9yo is better late than never, unless its in your interest to see him go WH which Mullins hinted at after his defeat. The WH is not the GC and thats why Tizzard will send Thistlecrack for it because its the most prestigious stayers race, sorry but the WH isn't. Besides, Mullins already has Annie for the CH, what would he do with her? Sending Faugheen the staying chase route is a win-win for both the horse and Mullins,not so much for the fans of him because thats a more risky path and if he fails to deliver we would suffer more than Mullins who'd probably still win 6-7 races at the festival.

EO,isn't it just the same then as when they run over 2m. Whether its over 2m or 3m the good ones race within their comfort zone and produce a superior turn of foot at the end.

I can't remember who I was discussing that very issue with a few months back but my view is that the whole turn of foot thing is usually something of an optical illusion at that level. The ones who appear to have the turn of foot are usually the ones who are decelerating more slowly. Which is why in my view the Neptune has proven to be such a good trial for subsequent Champion Hurdles. In that discussion I used Coneygree as an example from last years Gold Cup. I can't remember exactly from where I timed him but it was something like in between the first and second which were also the second last and last and he was quicker at the start than when he was being hard ridden at the end of the race. Something I've often found to be the case in championship races which tend to be truly run affairs.

Using the running analogy again Usain Bolt runs a mean 400 relay leg but even giving his all he isn't the very best whereas over 100 and 200 he has at times been far above his competition. Nobody would say that he doesn't stay 400 metres. Just that his advantages are taken away and he returns to the pack.

100,200 and 400m are sprint distances. That's like comparing US 2 furlong quarter horses with 5 furlong sprinters( full tilt versus slight restraint)
We are talking about the extreme end of the sport, ie national hunt racing, where 95% of races are run between 2m and 3m so a better comparison would be 5000m and 10000m races, where the technique and pace are similar and the better athletes tend to win with a superior finishing kick. Its not a golden rule that each and every 5000m athlete is equally capable at 10000, or vice versa, but as a general rule there's not a great deal of difference. The common factor is they are all stayers essentially

i agree with most of what you're saying @firsttimevisor, except the vice-versa thing. The 5-10 mph faster pace that they're going in the Champion Hurdle where there's basically a flat contest, is not something a true stayer can ever achieve, not even a champion chaser, but a CH winner can decrease his pace and get the longer trips, IF he has the required stamina. Of course they are animals and they don't know what distance they're running, thats why they tend to stay over the trip/pace they're best at instead of going around from 2 to 3 miles like a human athlete would. A docile horse like Faugheen you can put in 4 milers and if you'll hold him up and put him in middle of pack with cover, he'll go the pace the others around him are going, thats basically how Ruby got him beat following a slow pace and being done at the end by the turn of foot from a small flat group horse in NC. However, a strong-headed horse like MTOY can never get the 3 miles because he'll waste his energy trying to get out of the pack and go faster, which he also did in this CH by taking BG right up on Annie arse after just couple of furlongs.

firsttimer

I also made the point about horses relative abilities in that the difference between 5000 and 10000 in male running is relatively small. For a horse it is significant. Many world and olympic events are won by the same person doing the double. As we have seen horses with the ability to transfer top class winning 2 mile ability to three miles isn't as common. I'd argue that's because they can be seen as quite distinct because of a horse scope for running longer distances at pace which can best be illustrated with reference to horse versus human races. Once a race goes above about 20 miles which is short of our own marathon distance humans are quite able to compete with horses. For comparison purposes I'd say that the difference for horses between 2 miles and three and a quarter for a gold cup are similar to that for humans between 5000 and marathon. It takes an exceptional competitor to have the speed to win championship 5000 metres events and marathons. People like Gebresalassie indicate it can be done and there are horses which have shown it can be done. So all is not lost in the debate in that respect. I just don't think it's nearly as common as you suggest for horses to be able to be the best over both distances.

I wonder if Mullins will be sending Vautour for the two and a hlaf or three miler at Aintree?

Logic would suggest he'll be going the longer trip surely?

Yep I'd agree with that timtin. Horses that won't drop the bit tend to be the ones who don't stay, MTOY being a good example. By and large a top so called "2 miler" who settles well in a race, such as Douvan, will stay much further. In the modern era there are big races every week so planning a schedule for top horses is easier and trainers tend to stick to specific distances purely because they can. There was a time when the top horses were chasing far fewer big money prizes and going up in trip was no big deal at all.

Apr 2, 2016 -- 1:48PM, Eeternaloptimist wrote:

I wonder if Mullins will be sending Vautour for the two and a hlaf or three miler at Aintree? Logic would suggest he'll be going the longer trip surely?

You would think so, as it presents a perfect opportunity for him to begin plotting his horses path's towards next seasons Cheltenham festival. If Vautour beats Cue Card and Don Poli then he clearly needs targetting at next years gold cup and he can plot accordingly. If he fails to stay and ends up a beaten horse then he can drop him back down to target the CC. All he has to do is drop Djakadam to the 2 1/2 mile race and he would probably win it anyway.

Sadly we all know it won't happen, Mullins will again take the easy option of the 2 1/2 mile race to win, after all his personal crusade on the English trainers championship will take precedence as he attempts to hoover up as many grade 1's as possible.

We'll have to agree to disagree EO. Athletes, no more than horses, cannot run in every event and have to narrow the options down. Cheltenham is the Olympics of NH racing so unless horses run twice that week they can't get the chance to be champion at various distances or codes.
I really think there's far too much rubbish analysis of stamina among the top notchers. Nobody blinks an eye when when the run of the mill handicappers run over 2m, 3m, or anything in between.

I'd imagine that may be because run of the ill handicappers operate at a much lower level so this allows more leeway. Plus having a few pounds in hand won't harm them.

trigger3

I wholly agreed: in my opinion one has more chance of winning the National Lottery 3 weeks running than WPM running Vautour in the 'Bowl' against Cue Card and Don Poli at Aintree next week; WPM's objective at Aintree is to secure the Trainers' Championship, nothing else matters!

Yeah, and also add in the fact that if Vautour did happen to run over 3m at Aintree and win the race in a manner that suggested that he could have won a gold cup, then Mullins will have more questions to answer over his previous decision. He absolutely WON'T run him in the 3m race. Therefore the conundrum over whether Vautour is best over 2m/3m will rumble on indefinitely due largely to Willie's indecisevness.

My own comment was tongue in cheek meant to stir echoes of Mullins and Ricci's comments re Cheltenham. He'd only been trained for the Gold Cup and if it wasn't the Gold Cup he was staying at home. Now we have an easy three instead of going up the hill three times we will see if their comment about that late switch due to him not working well and being 90% were the usual hot air or not.

Aintree maybe an easy 24f but the ground might be against Vautour. It is looking increasingly likely to be softish of good at best with rain very likely from wednesday evening onwards - Vautour is also friendless in either the Bowl or Melling market; could it play into the hand of 'I plod on'?