Cheltenham Festival
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It seems strange that Willie Mullins has won the Champion Hurdle virtually at will, yet has never won the Gold Cup, Stayers' Hurdle or Two Mile Champion Chase.
Are there reasons for those omissions or are they just coincidental?
Firstly, it would be folly to suggest Mullins won't win a Gold Cup. I believe his record reads seven runners up from 19 runners. But, given his enormous strength, it seems surprising that he hasn't achieved the ultimate prize.
Casting my eye back, but far from forensically, I can only remember Florida Pearl and Djakadam as as Mullins staying chasers that could be said to have achieved true top class status. There may well be others but why so few? Many of his horses seem to peak as novices but not then really progress. From memory, these horses looked potential Gold Cup horses, but none became such.
Alexander Banquet
Davenport Millenium
Missed That
Fiveforthree
Cooldine
Mikael D'Haguenet
Cousin Vinny
Boston Bob
Back in Focus
Briar Hill
Ballycasey
Don Poli
That list could, I'm sure be added to.
Could it be that, like another all-conquering trainer in Martin Pipe, Mullins works his horses harder as youngsters than is conducive to developing careers which allow horses to progress and peak at maturity? This might explain why he has, so far, failed to develop champions in the races cited.
I suspect that, had Don Cossack been in his care, we would have seen him competing in the bumper at Cheltenham (assuming the owners allowed it) and possibly the Neptune. Would he then have developed as he has?
Few would doubt that Mullins is the master of his craft but, in his hunger to farm as many Grade 1's as possible, does he sacrifice his best chances of the biggest prizes?
Are there reasons for those omissions or are they just coincidental?
Firstly, it would be folly to suggest Mullins won't win a Gold Cup. I believe his record reads seven runners up from 19 runners. But, given his enormous strength, it seems surprising that he hasn't achieved the ultimate prize.
Casting my eye back, but far from forensically, I can only remember Florida Pearl and Djakadam as as Mullins staying chasers that could be said to have achieved true top class status. There may well be others but why so few? Many of his horses seem to peak as novices but not then really progress. From memory, these horses looked potential Gold Cup horses, but none became such.
Alexander Banquet
Davenport Millenium
Missed That
Fiveforthree
Cooldine
Mikael D'Haguenet
Cousin Vinny
Boston Bob
Back in Focus
Briar Hill
Ballycasey
Don Poli
That list could, I'm sure be added to.
Could it be that, like another all-conquering trainer in Martin Pipe, Mullins works his horses harder as youngsters than is conducive to developing careers which allow horses to progress and peak at maturity? This might explain why he has, so far, failed to develop champions in the races cited.
I suspect that, had Don Cossack been in his care, we would have seen him competing in the bumper at Cheltenham (assuming the owners allowed it) and possibly the Neptune. Would he then have developed as he has?
Few would doubt that Mullins is the master of his craft but, in his hunger to farm as many Grade 1's as possible, does he sacrifice his best chances of the biggest prizes?
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Its a proper tribute to any trainer when people start listing off the races he hasn't won yet!
The Stayer's Hurdle should not be lumped in with the Gold Cup or Champ Chase in terms of prestige ..along with the Ryanair chase it was given centre stage to facilitate the extra day of the Cheltenham festival, prior to that it was on the support card for Gold Cup day. Willie Mullins started from scratch,buying a yard and building up from having 6 horses in training in his first year(21 years ago I think it was). Compare that with Henderson( took over from Fred Winter), Pipe (from his father), Nicholls( serious Paul Barber backing) or Aiden O Brien(wife/father-in-law was champion trainer at that time). It's really only in the last 5 years that he has become dominant but his graph has being going gradually skywards since he started training. Looking at your list above, Missed That was killed as a novice chaser, Mikael couldn't jump fences, Fiveforthree had glass legs and missed years through injury.Davenport was never top class was he? The likes of Briar Hill and Cousin Vinny were top bumper horses who were nothing special after that, as most top bumper horses turn out to be. Alexander Banquet was top class- he won Ireland's biggest chase, the Hennessy. Don Poli has just finished 3rd in a GC so how can you say he's not a potential GC horse? I could give you a list as long as my arm of horses he's trained who have held their form into old age.The Fly was absolute top drawer as an 11yo when most top 2m hurdlers are gone at 9. Thousand Stars won a French grade 1 worth 233k only a few months ago at 12.Florida Pearl won 4 Irish Hennessy's including as a 12yo. Hedgehunter was second in a GC as a 10yo, the year after he won the Grand National. On His Own was beaten a whisker in a Gold Cup as a 10yo. The list is endless. He may not have won a Gold Cup yet but his record in it is bloody good.Apart from that, what about what he's doing on the flat these days with his jumpers - so close to winning both a Melbourne Cup and Ascot Gold Cup in the last few years and 4 Royal Ascot winners from a handful of runners. The best trainer of a racehorse since Vincent O Brien. |
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Not knocking him, firstime, and agree he's a fine trainer. Just wondering why he's come up short so far in the two biggest races (allowing that the Stayers may not belong in the list).
Can't agree about Alexander Banquet - four chase wins from 22, only two RPR's above 160 - and I don't think many would say Don Poli's progressed much from his novice days, plus Pipe's dad was a bookie not a trainer, and Henderson was Winter's assistant but didn't take over his yard. However, semantics aside, there still seems to me to be an issue with how few of his aspiring superstars over fences actually reach the top, or near the top, of the tree. Could be that Vautour and Douvan quash that accusation but, with Mullins nearing the veteran stage, I think it holds water at present, particularly if you compare his record in that respect with that of Paul Nicholls. |
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Pipe's grandfather was a bookie. His father is Martin.Don Poli has won a listed and a Grade 1 this year and was third in a GC, from 3 runs. That's not bad and yes it is progress from what he did as a novice.
But my point is that you are not comparing like with like. Henderson and Nicholls are really good trainers but their circumstances were much different in that they started off with serious investment behind them.The landscape was much different on both sides of the pond. Irish racing was very much the poor relation back then. They had the trainers and jockeys but not the owners with money in the numbers that Henderson and Nicholls had. Henderson was champion trainer 30 years ago yet didn't win a Gold Cup until 5 years ago and then won another.By "coming up short" for all those was it just circumstance or did he not really know how to train a GC horse until he reached 60? WPM has had 7 GC runner runner ups and a few 3rds thrown in for good measure. The fact he hasn't won one yet is hardly down to something he's doing wrong. He could win 5 before he retires, who knows. Nicholls has won 4 Gold Cups, WPM has won 4 Champion Hurdles. Two great trainers. |
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Since there is only one each of those races every year one does not have sufficient numbers to come to any conclusions. By the first of March 2011 neither Paul Nicolls or Willie Mullins had won a Ch Hurdle and using the logic here and on other threads one could just as easily have then said that they were lousy trainers of hurdlers. They then won 5 of the next 6 renewals. It is crazy to draw conclusion from such small numbers/statistics.
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Totally agree AA
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Mullins isn't always the best at placing his horses. Who knows whether Vautour would have been his first Gold Cup winner? Who knows if Annie would have been completing the hat trick this year?
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Eet he knows a bit more about placing horses than most. He even plundered a half a million pound race in Japan and only he got an idiot to ride another he would have won a Melbourne Cup with a handicap hurdler.
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I think a trainer must have the appropriate horses for the appropriate races eg stayers for races like the CGC or Nationals.
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He is the best at placing horses, the very best. Vautour wouldn't stay the GC trip if he started now. Annie is a good mare but this was her Champion Hurdle.She wouldn't have bothered Faugheen. She wasn't in the Fly's league either although he did under-perform in the 2014 CH so she may have gone close,though she couldn't get passed More Of That.
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Think Vautour might if he started now stupid comment ffs!
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Sorry Stevo1, didn't realise you were taking that statement at face value.Just to clarify then, yes he would win if he started now. Hope that clears this up
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"He is the best at placing horses"
It only took WPM 11 weeks post the King George to decide the Gold Cup (GC) was not for Vautour despite repeatedly insisting that was the race Vautour had been trained for whilst most racing enthusiasts had that notion the Cheltenham hill might be a hill too far for Vautour to hike; the switching of Black Hercules (BH) from the 4 miler to the JLT was another puzzling one despite BH winning that race courtesy of misfortunes of the main principles and L'Ami Serge despite jumping into the lead 2 fences out but evidently not staying 20f. The switching of a proven non stayer (Shaneshill) at 24f to a 30f RSA was another very puzzling decision by WPM! |
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Cheers my mind is at rest.
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Right, Vautour runs over his ideal distance and wins. Black Hercules shows enough pace to win the JLT. Shaneshill is held up and stays on past all bar the terrier Blacklion to be a good second in the RSA. Now I'm confused Impossible123. Are you saying he ran these three in the wrong races?
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Yes, WPM ran these two horses in the wrong race.
BH won because he outstayed L'Ami Serge (a non stayer over 20f) and misfortunes with Outlander and Garde La Victoire (both fell) and Bristol De Mai (BDM), the good ground was against BDM - BH will not beat Killutagh Vic or BDM on soft going. As for Shaneshill, he was beaten and outstayed by No More Heroes and Killultagh Vic over 21f and 24f respectively despite looking the winner 2f out; Shaneshill took it up in the RSA but was outstayed by Blaklion despite misfortunes to No More Heroes (tendon injury after jumping to the front 2 fences out) and More Of That (broke blood vessels). |
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Yeah, not sure how you could say Mullins put them in the wrong race, with 2 wins and a half length defeat. He was also bang on about Yorkhill too.
My only criticism would be Felix Yonger was ran off his feet on good ground in the QMCC and Bellshill was never fast enough to win a Supreme. Even with that though, neither would have been good enough to even place in the Ryanair or Neptune, but I do think those two races would have suited better than the ones they went for. Valseur Lido was definitely in the wrong race, but that was a Giggi call, and Mullins desperately wanted him in the Gold Cup, so he can't take the blame over that one. Also, Impossible, the JLT wasn't merely handed to Black Hercules; the only luck he had was Zabana missing the start. He outstayed L'Ami Serge fair and square (there is no luck in that), he was always holding Bristol de Mai and Garde/Outlander falling, well that's the name of the game. |
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Yes, WPM ran these two horses in the wrong race.
That's a very bold statement Impossible (you must be very hard to pleasE), considering one won well, and one was beaten half a length. You could argue that through Definitely Red, Blaklion had Black Hercules held, as he beat him much more easily. |
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I believe Yorkhill was rerouted solely due to the presence of Min; I also believe Yorkhill won with the aid of of Barry Geraghty plotting a wide course.
Bellshill had no credential to be pitted against Min, Altior and others in the Supreme - he was the sacrificial "lamb"! Vautour in the Ryanair was a penalty "kick" - stayed up and win - no two ways about it! Valseur Lido (VL) ran in the JLT because of the ground and to minimise the GC field. If ground had been soft/heavy VL would have had a good chance but would still finish behind Don Poli and Djakadam in the GC. BH - very possibly, but Outlander was going well, and had LS stayed BH would not have caught him. Very unlucky with Zabana! BH and BDM could do battle again in the Manifesto Chase at Aintree, and the ground most likely be soft given the forecast. |
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Impossible, you went out on a limb prior to Cheltenham saying Shaneshill couldn't possibly stay 3m. Why - because you said he was "outstayed" by Killultagh Vic and Thistlecrack over 3m in Punchestown last when he was third,with No More Heros and Roi De Francs behind. Now we know that he was beaten by 2 top class horses, outclassed rather than outstayed, they are simply better than him. But even now you are clinging to your confirmation bias that he doesn't stay 3m ,despite the evidence that he does.
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Sweet Jesus Impossible you need to clear your mind out. Do you think every horse who fell, unseated, broke down, burst blood vessels, raced wide, got interfered with, didn't stay etc etc, should be considered a rightful winner and all those who did win shouldn't really get the credit for it.Its starting to sound like you are justifying every horse you backed with the argument " well I was right, It's just that the results were wrong"
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No More Heroes was not right in the race hence the below par performance. However, Shaneshill looked the likely winner in that race two out but faded, and he did the same against No More Heroes in the Navan Novice Hurdle ie took it up but again outstayed.
BH is a better horse over 24f than 20f as I believe time will prove. As for Shaneshill the Mildmay Novice Chase at Aintree (if he turns up) will prove me right or wrong; regards Thistlecrack, he had improved beyond recognition! |
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Yorkhill is a good horse but I know which one I'll back should Yanworth and Yorkhill do battle again over the same trip and weight because I was not overly impressed by Yorkhill's win over 007 at Sandown.
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Impossible, I fear you may be fighting a losing battle.
Shaneshill stayed on well up the hill and fully justified Mullins' decision to run him in the race. It was the best race of his career, and the combination of good ground and the step up in trip was the key to it. The hurdle race at Punchestown had no bearing on the RSA. He didn't fade away in the RSA, there were about 4 in a line jumping the last and he only went down half a length. Black Hercules may well be a 3 miler in the future, but at the moment he is a top draw 2.5 miler. Over 3m he was rated 147 when he beat Definitily Red, and over 2.5 he is 158 having beat a good Grade 1 field. I have no doubt L'Ami Serge and Brisol De Mai have big futures ahead of them, and BH beat them with a bit in hand. I had the 4 miler blinkers on all year, but when Mullins chose the JLT, and I watched his races again, you could see why they chose it. He didn't scoot away from Definitely Red like he should have done over 3m, and he blew away Sambremont in Ireland this year over 20f. He clearly has lots of pace. I genuinely find it hard to understand how they were in the wrong race. |
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wellchief
I do have a clinical view as far as horse racing and betting are concerned I'm afraid, and sometimes I do get it wrong big time nonetheless I always back my opinions with money. Shaneshill produced his best jumping in the RSA hence the result. I firmly believe he'd have won the JLT too on that performance given his form over hurdles. But Black Hercules is definitely a better horse over 20f+ in my opinion - he does not have the pace for 20f - and WPM think so too hence that 4 miler entry. The reason given by WPM for the switch back was BH was a bit "fresh" in his previous race (24f), the cause of the fall. I'd like to see L'Ami Serge back over 16f (Douvan free just yet), and if he could jump as well as he did in the JLT he could beat the likes Vaniteux, Sizing John, Garde La Victoire and others I'd think - he just did not stay 20f. Horse racing is a wonderful game - that's all it is - with vastly genuine, rational and differing opinions, and the vindication with a win bet is the icing on the cake usually - the only exception is the demise of a horse eg No More Heroes, despite winning a bundle in that race. |
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Impossible I had to re-read your posts as I cannot believe anybody can be that blinkered (putting it politely).
I would say 8 festival winners shows WPM placed his horses in exactly the right races. To suggest otherwise is utter folly and smacks of supreme pocket talk. |
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Here we go again, forgive me if I'm nitpicking but its just that I can't ignore that sentence in the middle of that post -" he does not have the pace for 20f - and WPM think so too hence that 4 miler entry". But he has shown he has the pace for 20f. He's just won the JLT. How much more proof do you need? He probably stays 4m too but nobody knows if he'd have won the 4 miler yet he has shown definitively that he has the pace for 20f, whether you agree or not.And the decision to run in the JLT has been 100% vindicated.
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Annie is a good mare but this was her Champion Hurdle. She wouldn't have bothered Faugheen. She wasn't in the Fly's league either although he did under-perform in the 2014 CH so she may have gone close,though she couldn't get passed More Of That.
Faugheen's performance in the Champion last year was good but not out of this world. Artic Fire was closing him down quickly. Annie won just as easily. The Fly was never as good at Cheltenham which shows how good a champion he was to win two races there. What happened over 3 miles is irrelevant. Like I said. Who knows? |
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impossible123
29 Mar 16 21:57 Yorkhill is a good horse but I know which one I'll back should Yanworth and Yorkhill do battle again over the same trip and weight because I was not overly impressed by Yorkhill's win over 007 at Sandown. Forget the wide route, Yorkhill gagged up that day and won with stacks in hand, absolutely 100% outclassed Yanworth, simple as that. |
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No worries Impossible, as you say everyone is entitled to their own opinions.
I think L'Ami is over his perfect trip now and no need to go back to 16f, I just think he was beaten by a better horse on the day. I'd actually back him to reverse the form with Black Hercules if they metbat Aintree because I think the sharper track will suit him. I'd also fancy Shaneshill to turn the form round with Blaklion over 3m at Aintree for the same reason. |
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Good Morning
My apology if my recent posts offended other posters and racing enthusiasts here. I know I can be fairly forthright in my views and opinions on certain things but I can also be receptive to new ones too post the event. wellchief I hope you are right about Shaneshill at Aintree because the horse has run its guts out without being recompensed accordingly - I'm still seething with WPM not running him in the Neptune last year; I backed him at 80 here (only £2) when money came for BH in the JLT somehow I knew he was not going to win despite travelling the better of the two 2 out. duffy I shall give Yanworth another chance should it meet Yorkhill again on equal terms and the same distance; I believe the wide route contributed to his defeat because BG underestimated the ability of the latter. Hopefully time will prove one way or the other for certain. charwell A trainer can win any race if he/she has enough depths in reserve for that race eg WPM in the Champion Hurdle; WPM could have won the Champion Chase if Vautour had run there I believe, and probably the Ryanair with Valseur Lido - 3 wins in 3 races instead of 2. firstimevisor We'll have to agree to disagree on that. But I hope BH will prove me wrong when he runs against the likes of Outlander, BDM (soft), Shaneshill, Killultagh Vic over 20f. Hopefully Aintree could shed more light on the above, if so, humble pie from me in advance. |
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Yorkhill and Yanworth are 5/4 and 6/4 respectively with PP for the Mersey Novices Hurdle at Aintree next week, with Sportsbook 1/1 and 7/4 - looks like a rematch is looking a strong probability.
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Another interesting race could be upon us next week at Aintree: Shaneshill could be taking on Kylemore Lough, Outlander, Seeyouatmidnight, RDF, Monksland, etc in the Growise Novice Chase (25f) - Shaneshill is 6/4 with PP and Skybet, only 5/4 with
Sportsbook. I shall donate £10 each to a charity of 'duffy' and 'wellchief' choice if I'm proven incorrect. |
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^ race has 5 times in 11 years by horses who contested RSA, so 6 out of 11 did n't plus only just over 3 weeks between the two races this year and with the two RSA favs probably underperforming, I'd be inclined to think outside the box for this race.
I am hoping Alan King's mare L'Unique turns up fresh with the mares allowance and hopefully on goodish ground - her course record is 11 including a Grade 1 - albeit over hurdles and a few years ago now. She'd also have the option of the Manifesto Novices Chase on Day One - but that looks a deeper race to me - there must be some doubt Kylemore Lough and Outlander will turn up at Aintree so soon after Fairyhouse. |
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Having lost a few quid on Shaneshill antepost in the JLT, I was pretty annoyed that they switched him to the RSA, as I felt he wouldnt get the trip. But I feel that once again WPM was right, and I was wrong.
Impossible, you said it yourself... he produced his best jumping performance in the RSA. Thats because they went a slower gallop and that suited him. I very much doubt he would have jumped as well in the pace of the JLT. I can't see how any racing could criticise WPM after the way he each horse ran. |
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I agree with CCM re the reason for Shaneshill running in the RSA and said so on another thread about 10 days back.
Over 21f and on a course like Cheltenham Yorkhill would beat Yanwoth all day every day. Impossible everyone is entitled to an opinion but come on its your opinion v WM's. But of course and I repeat you are entitled to your opinion and it would be even duller here if we all agreed all of the time. |
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With regards to Shaneshill, did WPM not say Shaneshill would be rerouted to the Arkle should something untoward had happened to Douvan? I found that statement difficult to fathom given Shaneshill inconsistent jumping ability. But I do not disagree the step up in trip in the RSA might/could have brought upon an improvement in his jumping nevertheless, despite looking the likely winner two out in the RSA Shaneshill was once again outstayed just as he was in the Navan (2014) and Daily Mirror (2015) - that is my unwavering opinion.
I respect WPM as a trainer but do not always agree with his placing of his runners eg Shaneshill (Supreme 2015/RSA 2016), Bellshill (Supreme 2016) and Black Hercules (JLT 2016), irrespective of outcome. We shall see about Yanworth and Yorkhill when/if they meet at Aintree - the jury is still out, I believe. |
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Impossible
I think that you are correct to say that shaneshill was ultimately outstayed, but it is all relative, he ran away from the others but yes he showed a vulnerability to a real strong stayer in the end. I put the performance in the same bracket as AP in the World hurdle where it would be wrong to say she didn't get home but you'd have to have a reservation against a real "thorough" stayer that runs its race against it. |
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duffy
You are correct - it is all relative - unlike me, there is no grey area ie either a horse stays or it does not - no ifs, no buts - that is me I'm afraid! I also detest individual/s from any profession - lauded or not by the public/admirers - particularly this one eg WPM/RW/RR, for being indecisive, disrespectful, deceitful and disingenuous resulting in a financial loss to the majority but gain to a select few and/or their "friends". |