Cheltenham Ante-Post Post-Mortem

Absolutely dead on its feet Cheltenham Antepost while that stable in position they are...No value anywhere either.never mind second guessing races.

Would agree that antepost is all but dead in the water these days. I wasn't heavily involved at all this year and luckily almost all of my antepost selections got a run for their money. However next year I'm going to change tactics though and sack antepost off for all races bar the Supreme. I won't be doing it the old fashioned way of letting a bet ride either, I'll be looking to build a book just for that race with the aim to make good profit on all of the runners by trading in and out. In play running on here for prep races can be used to good effect for building a book up. I did that a couple of times this season and got a couple of nice prices.

By focusing on one race I won't have to go overboard and tie up big amounts of money for months on end. Also the Supreme I think is a good choice as it's the first race of the week so potential to have a nice bit of profit to get stuck into the other races, as well as the Neptune being the only other realistic option for novice hurdlers.

Novice hurdlers seems the only possible antepost play nowadays. Ok you have three races to get right, but as they're largely unknown quantities getting on at double figure prices is easy enough. You've got no chance with chasers or the likes of Faugheen and Annie Power.


Come wednesday night things looked pretty bleak for me. Confidence shot so decided to lump on Vautour and Thistlecrack who dug me out of a big hole. Friday was an average day so although it was a losing festival it wasn't anywhere near as serious as it could have been. A big big lesson has been learnt this year and I most definitely shan't be making the mistakes next time. At the same time and not wanting to make excuses my luck was nothing but truly rotten this week. Zabana just about sums it up.

Roll on Aintree, big time.

Min Supreme - lost
Long Dog - Lost (RIP)
Min/Faugheen/Douvan (doubles and trebles) - lost
More of that - Lost

Shocker of a year AP betting wise for me.

I agree the only real value is the novice races, e.g everyone knew MOT was going chasing this time last year and he was at 10s for quite a long time for the RSA.

Worst result was Killutagh Vic being injured. But thank goodness I backed Yanworth, Thistlecrack, Limini, Faugheen and VVM (both nrnb) in trebles and acca - the JLT and RSA were disasters for me but got some back thro' trading L'Ami Serge here.

i agree with jedi not just because of the mullins /WALSH situation but also because of the choice of races horses now have,i was lucky as i bet thistlecrack the minute he crossed the line at newbury in november.there was no other race he could go for and he was handled very well by a very capable trainer.throughout the season it was impossible to bet on the jlt ,ryanair ,arkle and sun alliance chase,it isnt just mullins/WALSH jonjo had 3 races in mind for more of that ,we had lami serge and garde le victoire who would certainly have ran in the arkle if the jlt wasnt around,one of the most memorable races in festival history the 89 gold cup would we have witnessed that race if the ryanair was around back then ?

Do not get Involved until weekend before,even then its a minefield.

Would imagine for the chosen few it must be like winning the lottery/rollover in certain races.

Some of the stuff you see on here is laughable,bigging up horses not knowing the ground,opposition,jockey bookings etc, months in advance.

The handicaps are becoming a joke,trainers are taking the p*ss,multiple entries for some horses that have no chance on their current ratings,over 100 entries for most of them,at this rate they might have to follow the pertemps route,and have qualifiers.

The final thing I have long suspected,just who are some of the people multiple posting on here, re targets etc,are they completely in the dark,or do they have other motives?

Where ever you have money involved,you will get villains,cynics could suggest the biggest culprits already mentioned.

Steer well clear unless you are connected.

for sure plenty on here tryin to put rest away,but no question of the biggest culprits..the aforementioned connections in pink with spots on...only interested in there own glory hunting,trophy cabinet and bank balances...entirely up to them but just dont expect respect others may get!
Dilluted festival big issue to foxy yes!

Yanworth was my only ante-post bet this year; a loser, of course. I'd vowed to stay out after getting my fingers burned last year. It is just too hard to predict who will run where (unless it is blindingly obvious but then you've missed the price).

There are three main problems. First, most of the best horses are in the hands of Willie Mullins, who will continually shuffle the pack until the meeting starts. This has a ripple effect as other trainers build their plans around Mullins. It was not just Vautour who was transferred late to the Ryanair.

Second, there are so many races, it is tempting for trainers to do just that. I can't blame them for it.

Third, in the handicaps, precisely the same thing happens, and now that Phil Smith has tightened things up, any notably well-handicapped horse might not get into its ideal race -- or any race at all.

all but dead in water for me after 55 years .. moving on   new breed of punters and loads of bookies ready to stuff us . really had enough .promised myself not to take part this season but  had enough now .. goes from strength to strength numbers going ..so must be doing something right .. only hope is a new breed of young  trainers can  conjure up good horses to play with shortly .....and progress quickly ............

Have had notable ante-post success in 2003 and 2013, but this year I had an absolute shocker. Two accumulators:

Douvan - won
Faugheen - n/r
Annie Power mares (switched)
Vautour Gold Cup (switched)

Douvan - won
Min - lost
No More Heroes - lost (RIP)
Un De Sceaux - lost

Did have a reasonably lumpy treble on Vautour/Thistlecrack/Limini on Thursday and then put a massive bet from that on a Don Cossack/On The Fringe double for Friday both at 3/1 which gave me my biggest ever win, but in terms of pre-Festival planned betting I don't think I have ever been so ineffective. It won't stop me trying again next year, but I think it is getting harder and harder with all the multiple entries, pack shuffling and trainers only ruling out any races in advance that their horses are officially ineligible for.

Massive after-timing here.....

Vroum vroum mag - won 12/1
Ballyandy - won 12/1
My tent or yours e/w - 2nd 20/1

Not so good
All yours e/w  - county hurdle 25/1 not placed
Vibrato valtat e/w Ryanair 12/1 not placed ( placed before vautour confirmed for race )
Yanworth - Neptune -  11/4 - 5/2 - 2/1 - lost ( thought this would win easing down, most disappointing race of week for me )

If Ante Post backing has become too difficult then, by definition, Ante Post laying must become really attractive. Just lay those Mullins horses for all you're worth and cash in when they switch.

Would require a strong nerve.

I would put a line through soft ground horses for next year.

All horses that have shown a propensity for soft ground have struggled, like don poli etc. those who like the mud are pretty much dead in the water at the spring festivals and might as well not bother turning up.

In fact I doubt we'll see any soft ground festivals for years to come as global warming continues to have an effect.

I haven't checked the exact going reports last time out for all the winners, but exactly half the Festival winners also won last time out, 3 came second and 1 came third - and I'd guess most of those were on ground with 'soft' pretty well represented in the going.

Whilst the Festival ground is important, I don't think it's as critical as some make out, providing it's not at extremes which it is never likely to be whether by natural or human intervention.

The drainage has made a massive difference but if you look back at the April meeting it's often run on soft ground. Had it been a week earlier it would have been soft as it was for the Gold Cup day last year.

Ante post has become a massive risk which is rarely worth the squeeze unless you can say with some degree of confidence which race a horse is likely to go for.

Mullins is in my view not good for the sport.

Agree Ee

I have tried to weigh up my antipathy to backing short-priced favourites and the knock on effect it has on my otherwise happy-go-lucky disposition (hmmm!) to hear the 'Rubee! Rubee!' chant go up as another Mullins hotpot goes in, with later tales of how easy this all is - 'just back Rubee / Mullins right?'

There's all that which I absolutely acknowledge about myself. Just suck it up - other people are having a good time even if you're not. I can accept that.

But the naked wielding of monopoly power, backed by the riches of Croesus and a total disregard for punters is not good for the sport and the argument that the bar is being raised is a facile one for me. In what possible sense is the (training) bar being raised? Not in the sense that Martin Pipe moved the game on with his training methods and everyone else played catch up.

Day of the races offers are so good now, there is no point risking AP bets.  Without after timing, I made £260 profit on £600 stakes (not my best week but far from my worst), but then £160 had to come out of those profits due to non runners, so wiped out a huge chunk.

Killultagh Vic, Faugheen and Annie switching cost me big.

Day of the race like 5 (and sometimes 6) places, some horses drifting in the morning, how many people were refunded for Min, UDS and Djakadam coming second with Hills, Betfairs back a winner at 3/1+ offer etc etc. What is the incentive to tie up money for months when these are available. Plus you get the bonuses on Lucky 15/31 that you don't get antepost.

It'll take one at a big price to get me involved now.

It still takes a huge degree of skill backing winners in the handicaps (that's why I never bet in them), but the Grade 1's are becoming predictable now, where you can usually narrow it down to one or two (usually the ones Walsh and Cooper are on, plus the best of either Henderson or Nicholls). Where there any double figure prices in any of the main races?

I cant agree that there is no point backing antepost anymore. Its just harder to get it right imo, mostly because of the dominance of the WPM yard. But I do think they got it right, so it proves that most of the time the horses will run in the right races, the tough bit, is just choosing what they are!

Without sounding like an aftertimer at best, and a smart @rse at worst, I had a few hard luck stories, but plenty of really good ones this year, and actually had my most successful antepost book in my all years at Cheltenham. Limini at 7/1 down, Black Hercules at 12/1 down, Diego du Charmil at 16/1 down. Vautour any race at 7/2 and 3/1. Thistlecrack at 4/1 and 3/1. Even Yanworth at 20/1 down and More of That 16/1 down were e/w so made a profit on the horses.

I will definitely be looking at the any race markets more closely though as think these will be a great help.

Excluding a couple of little returns in one the day Lucky 15's, I only had 4 winners all week:

Yorkhill @ 7's as soon as NRNB came out, VVM @ 5/4 as soon as NRNB came out, Thistlecrack @ 2/1 when Betfair did their price boost at their filmed preview night, and Black Hercules @ 14's was win any race bet before he won his first chase.

What I'm taking from this year is either use the win any race, or just wait until NRNB first comes out where there is still some value.  Even if you have to back the same horse in multiple races, you get your money back any way.

I did have some very tasty prices compared to the SP: UDS @ 5/2, Long Dog was 16's when he went off at 5's, I had NMH @ 14's, Cue Card at 14's etc, but none of those won.  I'm at a conundrum though because I would have backed all of those on the day of the race anyway, so I admit that it's not antepost that cost them; they just didn't win.

That said though, if I didn't have an antepost bet this year, I would have been more up than I was.  Thankfully I didn't lose a penny on Vautour or Yorkhill for backing in the wrong race, so I probably got away relatively lightly.

Had multiple runners in most races, but 13 winners.
Altior 8/1
Douvan 3/1
Annie power 5/2 (made more from places)
Yorkhill 16/1
Blaklion 14/1
Ballyandy 15/2 on the day with 25 free bet. (Battleford  ew)
Black hercules jlt 9/1
Thistlecrack 25/1 and 2/1
Empire of dirt 16/1 on the day 25 free bet.
Limini 8/1
Ivanovich gorbatov 14/1 (only won money back).
Don cossack 8/1
On the fringe 9/2
A few injuries  near misses and a couple of places on ew bets but all in all very happy.
My worst race by far was the albert bartlett, I backed 6 and nothing in return.

Total outlay for all bets, my share of the hotel hotel, tickets and expenses £4350.
Return £8920.
To be fair would have won just as much if I only backed thistlecrack but, wouldn't have been as fun.

Does anyone have a trumpet going spare.

Haha just being honest.

No need to rub it in Scooby!

Chief, That wasn't the intention,  just copying others above and writing the honest truth.  I spent a hell of alot of time and got a level back that I'm happy with.
Also agree about the to win any race markets,

Only joking mate You put all those up well before the races, so well done!

At first glance thats a seriously impressive ante-post book but your last comment has me baffled. You claim you would have won just as much if you only backed Thistlecrack which amounts to £4,570 net profit on Thistlecrack alone. Therefore you must have had a seriously long list of losers as well given the fact that you had 13 winners and all at hefty prices relative to their SP.

There is nothing wrong with punting ante-post providing you are "even more" philosophical about it than ever before, you could even argue that the mullins mery-go-round makes it all the more interesting, perhaps not for large stakes mind you

No I meant if I just put the whole lot all on Thistlecrack at 5/4 .
Anyway I actually think there's value to be had in the antepost market already.
Was tempted by yorkhill jlt at 8/1 but id be happy with any race 4/1.
the one I may go in on shortly is identity thief in the arkle at 16s.

I think I made more on Vautour not running in the GC than had it run - I laid off here and bet it nrnb on Sportsbook and other bookies - the same with DP and other principals in the field except DC.

Impossible that's a good point and something I wanted to do as had backed same horses in multiple races and incase of injury. The exchange market and nrnb was very closely matched  But I diddnt have the funds this year.

scooby91

I was just sick of the shenanigans of his connections, and I had to because of the liability. I even had an acca up @ 43/1 with Vautour (Ryanair), Limini (Mares), Thistlecrack and DC (all nrnb) for £1, just a bit of fun. I've learned to play the connections at their own "fun and game" using the Exchange as barometer - cannot really complain after KV and Faugheen (nrnb) and NMH misfortunes.

I've got my eyes on Yorkhill for next year too. And you'd have to think 16/1 Senewalk is worth a few quid.

Ccm if you want to back senewalk go ahead. As when he wins a maiden hurdle he will shorten drastically. 
However, One thing I would bare in mind is he was bought by pierre to go juvenile hurdling and hasn't made it to the track as yet. The same situation as RIVEN LIGHT  who has been gelded.
Will be interesting to see if/how fulham road gets on at punchestown, he could be the one. But just as likely to get injured.
I will personally be keeping an eye on what pierre buys from france
As thats the only 2 novices hes bought so far.

I think Ante Post is dead for what appears to be the fecking obvious 2 to 3 months out .
By the same token there is value still to be had if you think outside the box.
At the risk of gross after timing for example Sizing John a really good hoss and great jumper with an impeccable record if you take out the monster Douvan was available @ 25s e/w 3 places  1/4 odds ante post.Also available @ 100s plus on here

I'm not keen on e/w because it means I'd lose twice the amount if a non-runner.

I only bet in Handicaps.lots of multiple entries. So now I wait for NRNB.

I gave up as don't follow closely enough and was fed up with getting non-runners or runners switched.

I really think these days for almost everybody, day of race, BOG, extra places, free bet if second and so on makes a lot more sense.

scooby

at what stage did you back thistlecrack at 25 ?

26 Sep 15 / 19:51Single1 World Hurdle - 17th Mar 2016  –  OutrightThistlecrack @ 25/1Won£30.00£780.00O/6678768/0

Nice bet scooby

I agree it's all but dead, the last remaining hint of value is the "to win at the festival" markets. The whole year is based around Cheltenham now so bookies are far more switched on and as soon as any novice hurdler/chaser wins a small race it's cut for Cheltenham
The only fancy price I got was 8/1 on Mags winning the Mares hurdle but like an idiot I'd doubled it with Bellshill on the Neptune and Josies Order in the Cross Country......singles the way forward

good morning scooby

i wasnt doubting you i was just wandering when and who would want to lay 25/1 thistlecrack ,i was very pleased with 10/1 after newbury well done he is a really good horse, i hope he stays to hurdles but this trainer likes to have a go so i should think we will see him over fences in the autumn.

Timeform put Thistlecrack up at 33s very early in the season IIRC.

best i seen douvan all year since last march was 5/2  getting 3s somewhere was nice..

Douvan was 4's with PPower last April Kavvie, sadly I wasn't on

Yep was on Douvan at 4s in double with Don Poli at 6s ffs.

fair play.it was some price(obv with risk of a switch from wp!!)

I shall continue my policy of laying anything at 3 or shorter on here until the end of November.

Personally think you'd have to be on some form of strong drug to view Senewalk as worth a few quid at 16/1 for the Supreme this far away.

Min was available at 50/1 up until July/August time last year, 25/1 up until late October and 14/1 on the 9th of December, the day before his maiden hurdle run at Punchestown. I also very clearly remember Douvan being freely available at 12/1 in early January 2015, in the close build up to his Moscow Flyer win.

The fact the bookies are already quoting Senewalk at 16/1 a good 51 weeks out shows they are getting tighter on it yet again, they know they're going to have far smaller liabilities next time round as they aren't laying anyone 50's and 25's like they were with Min - and we all thought they couldn't have been a bigger joke than they were last year antepost.

One week down and no antepost bets. Better than last year already and a philosophy I shall be sticking to with the scandalous prices the bookies are dishing out.

OP is an out and out mug favourite backer. Every selection was on the shorties. Backing them all blind AP is the quickest way to the workhouse.

The days of value betting AP without valuable inside info is very tricky.

The one easy one for everybody was backing Vatour NRNB for the Ryanair.

I placed about 10 AP bets. 5 never turned up and only one won. Barely wiped my face. Going to simply wait for NRNB next year as the bookies make several tempting offers near the off. Even Sportsbook offered 3 free bets to the same value up to £25 on Day 1 for a winner above 3/1.

Altior @ 9/2 obliged handsomely very first race so then playing up 3 x £25 bets as well as the winnings.

So lesson is work smarter and not harder for myself.

Charwell, you misunderstood.  I did not back those horses I was just pointing out the pitfalls of many long term fancied horses for this years festival.