Cheltenham Festival
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Forum Plunge 2016
Forum Plunge 2016
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Replies: 147
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Looks like the plunge has started already ... John Constable sea of blue on odds checker, shortening on the exchanges and that 33/1 on bet365 is now 20/1 .... best price 25/1 now on Paddy!
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Desoto County in whatever handicap it runs in. I get a good feeling about horses that get touted up through the season for each big handicap they run in but for what ever reason don't put it in in respect to the odds they go off for them races, then come fez time, their trying for all their worth, not saying that they weren't trying in them previous races but you know what i mean.
To lesser extents i also like for this Campeador and Jetstream jack |
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This sort of childishness is right up my street! Count me in
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A plunge you say?
All we really need to do is back Cue Card to be favourite at 14/1. Then, then! We create the tidal wave of support for the horse in a million. Then, then! The sting in the tail. We go and collect again after he wins. The DC brigade might take a bit of turning I suppose  |
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Im in. Just a time and place and il be there !
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Looks like we've got a bit of interest as usual
 So.... what are we going to do? Trixie? L15? A single also? Should the single go into the multiple too? When to place the bet: Sunday evening or Monday evening would seem logical-ish to me? Depending on what races are selected. Might be wise to avoid stuff that's got multiple entries and connections haven't committed to one race or another... As for selections, there's been a couple of lively looking outsiders posted already which we could go with. Alternatively, if people wan't to volunteer to make a selection, then stick your name down? I'm quite happy to chip in with one, preferably something in the RSA or X-Country. |
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I would avoid the handicaps for the multi hard enough solving 1 let alone 4, rsa,world hurdle ,chmp chase champ hurdle ,jlt, gold cup look tempting, handicap for the single ?
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Lil Rockerfella. Won't be 25/1 in half an hour
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Great field goes in easily. Been withing 10 months for that. Min must be some horse
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Still 20s with the sponsors. Half that elsewhere
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needs to be under 145 for the mp conditional, cant see that! id run him in the coral cup, get him leading.... tighter course will help him see out the trip!
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Mullins says he's one for the future, so will either miss the festival or surely it's the Coral Cup? Jockey needs a kick up the arse for winning 'easily' by 4l against a 135 rated horse as that will probably discount him from the RP and The County is probably too short a distance at 17f. The skill of the jockey is to make it look hard work!
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He won't be going coral cup. If he dosent get 145 will go for the county
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I can still see him getting 145 for that racing post rating is 148 and they're always a few pounds over. Depends also the difference between his irish and English mark
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Phil Smith will make sure he doesn't get a run in the MP - just like Diamond King. He'll overrate that performance in my opinion - but WPM will have darker ones than that for his benefit race, I reckon.
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I can't see him being rated less than 146, and therefore too high for the County. He does well in the Martin Pipe but may have Townshend as his main contender for that (entered in the Supreme and Neptune which is different to his 8 other contenders, hinting at a touch of class, but not quite good enough yet to rival the better horses).
Therefore, I think it will be the Coral Cup and a chance to lift three big handicaps. The last two winners of the CC have been weighted above 145 I think? |
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Shrews I think you've got mixed up. Irving is in the count official 160. And is an open handicap.
The Martin pipe has a limit of 145. Townshend isn't entered in the Martin pipe, and I know the horse great field already before today's race iv followed his french career where his last 2 wins over 17f on gd soft were very impressive making all with a high cruising speed and pulling away at the end, hes always been a very keen horse and he was the lead horse who finished 2nd to min in a schooling hurdle at thurles after racing last year. I'd be shocked if he went to coral cup he's far too keen on my eye. |
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Are we talking about Lil Rockerfella here guys? Or Great Field
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Sts
Great field. Anyway think we have gone off topic for the plunge and I apologise. |
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should be the plunge horse imo soon as race is decided, probs agree Scooby and will go county looking at todays race race again.... long run in would be only concern as they get racing further out in the county.
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I think it'll be generally backed whatever so should look elsewhere for our pick. In spirit of the thread, we want to try and move market so perhaps be less obvious?
Happy to row in whatever. My choice at this stage FWIW would be Art Mauresque if turns up in Plate. 2-3 people max to be panel for final decision |
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Agreed thats why iv already backed GF before today.
I'm happy to back whatever as part of the plunge when people decide who's going to make the picks. |
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yeah good shout, i'm just getting a bit carried away. looked super impressive today! had it a few nrnb ew doubles and trebs yesterday so happy days!
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@Scooby
Yeah, wrong way round sorry. He may go for the County, but I just feel Mullins has Townshend for that (surely won't go Supreme or Neptune and his mark looks very winnable). Won't get in the Fred Winter, which just leaves the Coral Cup or two main contenders in the County. |
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Fred Winter? Shrews you're having a shocker mate! I think Great Field will probably join 5 or 6 of JP's others in the County. Although the Coral Cup is a possibility if they want to try to settle him
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As for having 2 contenders - Willie will also 5 or 6 in each race, I expect.
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@Delsie - Lol re: Fred Winter. My brain is getting frazzled with all these races
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Personally i think we should have the racecselectors in place by this weekend and then let rip the sunday before the fez....maybe around six pm on a quiet sunday that way im sure we would see more reaction.
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Agreed!
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Shrews! You're alive. I'm glad to hear it. When are you going to update this thread....
http://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30461863/epsom-derby-2016---475-entries---1001-winner There are people waiting for you. |
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I'd like to nominate Johns Spirit in the Brown Advisory Plate.
I genuinely can't believe they've managed to get his mark down so much. Ran a pretty solid race to finish 5th in the Ryanair off 160 a year ago and is now off 145. His last two runs were pretty decent imo, in competitive races and on the softer ground he doesn't appear to like. His record at Chelts when good is in the description is excellent. The negatives are that he doesn't fit the trends for the race very well and Jonjo has been in poor form, but he's turned it round in time before and at 14/1, I'm willing to give him the chance. Cheers |
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I agree with 180 re getting selectors in place by weekend. My choice would be 180, marychain and one other.
Weights come out on Thursday I believe, give us a week to make our nominations, couple days for selectors to make decision and then charge. |
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Johns Spirit does indeed look very well handicapped and could bounce back on spring ground. The market obviously agrees as he's favourite, which tempers enthusiasm a little, but the 14s isn't too stingy. Certainly one to consider I think providing he doesn't end up single figures by the time we come to bet.
Agree that selectors should be in place by this weekend and bet placed probably the Sunday evening to give folk who are travelling down chance to get on. Any volunteers...? My personal suggestion at this stage would be Vyta Du Roc for the RSA (providing they don't go NH Chase). He looks a very strong stayer to me and a good jumper. He's got very good previous festival form (would have been 2nd in Neptune but for belting the last), should enjoy the ground (though proven on soft if it comes up that way too). With question marks surrounding the market leaders for this (No More Heroes: No recent run, spring ground would be a question mark) and More of That (very inexperienced, no recent run, far from a typical RSA profile), I think there is plenty of reason to take them on with something e/w. What's more, the RSA is one of the strongest trends races of the festival, and VDR hits them all perfectly (all of the other principles "fail" the trends in many ways). I'm aware that some may be quick to crab the form of his Reynoldstown win, but I like the way he's been brought along pretty quietly by Henderson this season, and to me, his hurdles form alone entitles him to go fairly close here. |
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And dare I make another suggestion? If we land winner, we give a % of winnings to charity, Say Marie Curie that is gaultstats charity? Just a thought, nothing more
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Fantastic idea roo.
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Anyone know if 145 is rock the world's official uk handicap mark? Or is that his irish mark
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Without looking scooby if taking it from RP and last run was in Ireland, fairly sure it's the Irish mark
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Thanks roobuck, Last run was in england, but might still be the case as Looks lenient to me.
Anyway I'll keep an eye on the thread for the chosen selections. And have a small play |
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Like VYTA DU ROCK for RSA, but even more keen on SOLSTICE STAR (NRNB) at 20/1 for the Martin Pipe.
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Somebodys charged before me on Vyta Du Rock :( , gonna try to snaffle a little bit of 14/1 with as many 888 accounts as I can lay my hands on
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