Cheltenham Festival
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champion hurdle 2016
champion hurdle 2016
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It's not that simple when a few of these are young improving horses,and are quiet possibly better than they have shown us?...TN,Hargam,IT......Then we have MTOY and TNO who we are not sure are as good as they once were,if they are they are huge players imo.
Fair enough go for the more solid type in NC,why not? But imo be wary of something surprising you if you do. |
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Peace and co is a bit of an enigma as well,he could all of a sudden produce a performance.
It's quiet intriguing race for me,with lots of possibilities and to be honest would not be totally shocked to see 6 or 7 different horses winning this!! |
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Bud I'm already on NC EW (nothing beats faugheen) since july. (Also backed faugheen to a big stake which is lost) just seen nothing to put me off, a couple of solid performances on soft ground, and the field looks 10x easier than when I backed him with the better spring ground 100% in mind.
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Yeh,he looks good for at least a place.
You done ok there I should think. GL. |
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Yeah, very wide open. I've narrowed it down to 5, but that's still 40% of the field
 People forget that Jezki would have been a big player in this too now, but I suspect he'd be dueling with Thistlecrack for World Hurdle favouritism if he'd stayed fit. |
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In my opinion very wide open race when you have identity thief at 9/2 for a champion hurdle. I am in favour of the TNO at the prices and with him not having to chase the pace with Faugheen out and better ground coming into play, this has to be his best chance.
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another TNO fan here, gotta go close.
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Why are they going to be behind pushing him
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I don't discount TNO I think he'll be thereabouts but if Annie shows her best which was around 165, then nothing in this field has shown the ability to produce a 170+ performance to beat her. Arctic was the only proven one being a good runner-up last year. How much improving can IT or NC make in order to compensate for Annie's allowance thats the main question for me. TNO just comes short of the very best and in any other weak renewals(`07-`09, `13) he might've had a big chance, and people thought he has a big chance in the last 2 ones as well but with the bad luck in `14 and trying to go with Faugheen from the top of the hill last year, it just seems he won't ever win one for whatever reason.
I'm not sure the ground IT has been running on at the start of the season favoured him but he still won the Fighting Fifth by 10 lengths from an 160 horse while making lots of mistakes, while he gave a good account in the Ryanair Hurdle against a top class one in NC who goes much better with cut in the ground. IT can improve on better ground and did well bypassing the Irish CH so he might have a big performance in him. If AP runs to her best in such a different test than she ever had against the best opposition she's ever faced, then IT will have some catching to do. If NC gets soft ground and if he's recovered from last month then he'll be the one that'll have the biggest shot against her. Top Notch gave IT a good challenge in the Fighting Fifth but my feeling is he had the run of the race that day and was flattered by the finishing margin to IT. Just like Nichols, he'll also need Soft to see him at his best. MTOY hasn't been seen for 2 years, even at his best I don't think he could've given AP 7lbs so now its even more doubtful he can do it. The rest, Old Guard, Camping Ground and others are good potential improving outsiders that will maybe pick up a distanced place if NC & AP take each other on too hard for the lead and IT fails to spark. |
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Why do people keep saying nicholls canyon goes much better with cut in the ground?
If I may ask. |
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I'm assuming that's people reading his flat form?
But I may be wrong |
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Perfectly simple explanation for that scooby ...
1. His only 2 wins on the flat came on soft ground 2. Over hurdles, his wins have came on yielding/soft, yielding, yielding, good, good/yielding, soft, soft/heavy |
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I don't think the ground is that important to Nichols Canyon, he blew them away at Aintree and that was real quick ground. Re the soft ground wins, that's just because Irish winter ground is always soft, so 90% of all the Irish runners will have more wins on soft that good, but doesn't necessarily mean they prefer it.
I would be more concerned about the track than the ground. He comprehensively reveresed the form with Parlour Games when ground conditions were similar at Cheltenham and Aintree. Was that Parlour Games being over the top, or Nichols much preferring a flat track? I don't know, but I think he had more than enough ability to win the Neptune and didn't. |
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Soft ground on the flat, is nothing like soft over hurdles. But look on his form on gd and yielding ground at aintree, punchestown and in the Deloite.
That's his 3 best runs imo. Would be hard to say he's a soft ground horse if you watch him in those 3 grade 1 race wins. |
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@chief, I don't think NC stays that well, he was flat at the end of the Neptune and seemed the uphill finish after 2 and half miles might've seen his last stamina reserves buh-bye, so I don't think his problem was Chelt but in large the lack of stamina and only a small fraction due to tactics.
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@scooby, I think Gosden and his connections knew more about this, its perhaps largely the reason he went jumping because he prefers soft ground. Like I've said above, his best ever performances have come on soft/heavy, be it flat or hurdles, Ire or Gb.
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or France for what is worth...
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Timtim In the neptune they were holding up to get the trip, he was pulling all the way round and they admitted many times since, they got it all wrong with tactics on the day.
He could only run on the ground he has this season, Much more to come imo on better ground. I backed him for this straight after punchestown, yielding. after he confirmed his aintree win on the bit on gd ground to be his true form. But I value other people have different views. |
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I get what you're saying but that's one race. Yes fair enough they admitted to getting tactics wrong at Cheltenham but do we know for certain that would have been the difference? I'm not fully convinced.
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Willie and ruby are adamant that's the case and I must say I was very suprised at the time to see the way he was ridden and he was pulling very strongly. Just assumed ruby knew exactly what he was doing. But obviously since then he's admitted the reasons why they rode that way to get the trip he was running over for the first time.
Since then he's been unbeaten ridden from the front in 4 grade 1s. Not long now. |
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when is pulling a sign for wanting up in the trip? Yes NC would've benefited from the front in hindsight as he would've managed to stay in that place despite his emptying stamina, and thats the reason he lost as he didn't had anything more to give up the hill after 2 and half miles. His best trip is over 2 miles. Beating mud lovers and/or average opponents at Aintree and P'town doesn't prove he loves good ground. The reason he got into jumps/winter racing was because his form on flat over soft was miles ahead and his connections & trainer knew that. The more cut in the ground the better his performance in the CH.
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Spot on. 1 win out of 9 (combined flat and jumps) on good ground and that's supposedly what he's crying out for? Come on.
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I think NC will be ok on good/soft as should most of them I would think.
That's if the clerk of course can achieve that. |
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This wouldn't have anything to do with the £200 each way at 20/1 you have on him as stated after he beat Faugheen? On soft ground I may add.
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Blimey,who had that bet?
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scooby I believe.
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Good luck Scooby!!
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Not a great bet after 2 hard races, but if he recovers from those and gets a bit easier ground conditions then he'll be the main threat to AP.
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Oops I meant its a great bet at 20/1 but it would've helped if he hadn't gone for the Irish CH. GL anyone who's on him!
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Good or good/soft ground will pose no problem to Nichols Canyon. Parlour Games is no mug, so I don't think it's right to say he is a mud lover or average; a Challow winner and ran a blinder in the Neptune. I also don't think Nichols is short of stamina at all; he'd have a much better chance of 3m than Arctic Fire ever would imo.
Paterson, yes 1 out of 9, but he's obviously a much better hurdler than flat horse, and as we are talking about hurdling, he is 2 from 3 with "Good" in the description, both of which are Grade 1's. |
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Yes Chief, always think it best to judge a hurdler on his hurdle form. Especially one that's had a fair few runs over hurdles.
He should certainly be finishing ok at 2m. |
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If AP is added to the field do you think Wylie could be persuaded to wait for the Aintree Hurdle with Nichols Canyon? Basically if she's added they're saying NC aint good enough aren't they? Gives him extra time to freshen up after the 2 hard races.
I appreciate it's opposite to what Wylie said! |
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Willie been saying NC is a CH horse since winning last years Deloitte and now missing it? No chance. He did wanted him to miss the Irish one as he thought he had a hard race with IT lto but Wylie wanted to mull NC's good form on that winter ground as long as he could and didn't listened. Plus there were lots of journalists who kept banging him how he's better than Faugheen etc so they did more harm than good, but at least he's still in the race..
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Different owners obviously, so both will run I think
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Yes I do have that bet but also had a large bet on faugheen that I lost. And obviously I fancy him. He beat an unfit faugheen on soft. Im still adamant hes better on better going and obviously he hasnt had a choice to run on better gtound this season obviously.
Goes there with a solid chance against these. Not long left |
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shockster
25 Feb 16 19:29 If AP is added to the field do you think Wylie could be persuaded to wait for the Aintree Hurdle with Nichols Canyon? Basically if she's added they're saying NC aint good enough aren't they? Gives him extra time to freshen up after the 2 hard races. No chance of that because Mullins would have told Wylie that Annie is going to need a pace-maker  |
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My biggest negative about Nichols Canyon is the price on BF about him.
I have been getting matched at 15/2ish for a while now, surely if he was working well he would be shorter.... or is my thinking wrong?.... or do we think Ruby rides AP? I am with you Scoob! and consider him the best bet of day one of the Fez! Top Notch for the forecast! |
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If Annie Power runs she is 1/50 to be ridden by Walsh. They aren't going to supplement her and Walsh choose N.Canyon. If he wants to ride Canyon then she won't be in the race.
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Ruby sounded doubtful of her claims in recent interviews, if he chooses her over NC that would get me worried tbh....& I'd probably lay it all back.
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