Cheltenham Festival

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18 Feb 16 19:42
Date Joined: 09 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 22,695 | Blogger: FOYLESWAR's blog
after yesterdays shenanigans the race has opened up and now has  an attractive shape to it imo with questions to be answered by just about every horse in the line up  ,with the fav sidelined its up for grabs and almost anything can win it  , last years 2nd arctic fire has an obvious chance but does not look invincible annie power has questions to answer regarding trip and a lack of runs this season just the egg and spoon race yesterday has not told us much  and if she lines up will be overbet ,nicholls canyon has his chance and could go close but he is a skinny price . peace and co has disappointed and the triumph form looks very suspect imo .
looking at the others one who appeals to me at a price is camping ground  right before you burst out laughing take a look back at his relkeel win its on youtube he absolutely hacked up on bad ground can he do it on better ground ? we don't know but he is a big price and I have paid to find out 25s nrnb  and over 33s on here  ,he is a big price for what he has achieved imo and he may be vulnerable at 2 miles but" plenty of good judges say you need a horse who stays 2m plus to win a champion hurdle ,ok he is handled by an "unfashionable " trainer in Robert walford and many will say this horse needs it heavy after pishing up in the relkeel over 2.4 miles . he patently did not stay in the cleeve when trying 3 miles for the 1st time but I have put a line through that .
he absolutely hacked up in the relkeel and had top notch well behind and there are  lines of form involving top notch peace and co, hargam and identity thief , that put camping ground in front of that quartet ,this horse jumps hurdles slickly and he absolutely powered up the hill in the relkeel and won in the manner of a decent horse  .he has been running on mainly very soft ground but he is flat bred and good to soft may not be a problem . he should be ridden prominently  near the front to let his stamina come into play and he could put it up to a fair few of these . at 25s with the bald one nrnb and a bigger price on here he looks a value call for me . selection CAMPING GROUND 1 PT EACH WAY CHAMPION HURDLE . ever opinions and input welcolme and don't hold back I love an argument !
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Report kevinglass February 29, 2016 7:21 PM GMT
All Jockeys are selfish, they need to be I guess to get the best spread of rides.

So as I said quite a lot of posts back on here, I reckon Ruby will be trying to persuade Mullins/Wylie to give NC a crack at the World Hurdle.

He might not get his wish, but it was worth a few quid to see if he does!
Report stevo1 February 29, 2016 9:42 PM GMT
Been waiting to back Nichols Canyon, but been weak on here for weeks now. Think will wait how can Mullins now think about WH, just the greedy jockey i presume?
Report Can't Catch Me February 29, 2016 9:46 PM GMT
Wylie is bonkers if he agrees to this. And weak.
Report stevo1 February 29, 2016 10:07 PM GMT
Agree start of season Champion Hurdle was the plan. Have also backed him big odds for WH, but wont be beating Thistlecrack.
So must go to rather weak Champ Hurdle.
Report Eeternaloptimist February 29, 2016 11:09 PM GMT
It would be rather funny if Townend nutted Ruby and Annie on the line.
Report timtin February 29, 2016 11:18 PM GMT
a weak CH? Send your donkey then and win it.. Jesus.. with a mare capable of running to mid 160s and receiving 7lb allowance, it'll need a horse running to 170 mark to win it, thats above average CH on paper. Depending on what happens it could be a good renewal or just average, but not weak.

WH field however looks average at best, probably the reason Ruby wants to sacrifice a non-stayer in Canyon for it, like they did with Arctic at Christmas. Last year winner has been running awful on the winter ground and who knows if he comes back to his best, while Thistlecrack has been giving beatings to 10yo Reve de Sivola and a failed experiment in Ptit Zig. If Mullins camp had any clues to NC staying he would go straight for that but they know he doesn't stay and thats most likely why he lost the Neptune last year. The only thing pushing for it is Ruby who doesn't wants Annie to get beat with him on her back, go figure.
Report scooby91 February 29, 2016 11:34 PM GMT
Last year was an average world hurdle this year is anything but. All about 1 horse and I'll be using that quote about him only beating a 10 year old and an experiment when he's bounding clear up the hill.
Would be crazy to send nc there and I'm sure they won't.  I have a cover bet but Just willie and ruby trying there luck as nothing for the race.
Report Angela Rebecchi March 1, 2016 12:33 AM GMT
Ruby just wants NC out of the CH to make sure he doesn't look silly if it beats him on AP.
Report harry callaghan March 1, 2016 12:42 AM GMT
really am struggling to find pace in this trappy champion hurdle myself which could lead to a messy race and won't help all the hold up types...

camping ground is quite a free runner but that has been over staying trips, i can see him prominent and maybe nicholls canyon but neither are quick or all out front runners so no guarantees of pure pace...much to ponder as not sure which horse it will suit in all fairness, as most of them all want pace to run at
Report harry callaghan March 1, 2016 12:51 AM GMT
bit off the cuff but if i had anything to do with the new one i'd slam a visor on him and bounce him out in front...just a thought
Report stevo1 March 1, 2016 3:14 AM GMT
Timtin rather weak is what it is imo, top 2 rated hurdlers are not running but makes it more interesting.
Report blackballed1 March 1, 2016 7:53 AM GMT
Well I kept the faith with nichols after his below par run in January! And now after the last 2 weeks my confidence is sky high in the little terrier! Can't see him being out the frame in 2 weeks and I can't see the owner changing the plan now when 2 weeks ago with faugheen and artic fire still in he was all go for the champion so can't see any chance of him going world now!
Report lewisham ranger March 1, 2016 9:37 AM GMT
I don't get the short price on annie power. she couldn't even win the mares hurdle.

nicholas canyon should be fav. already won five grade ones.

wouldn't be surprised either if hendo trained my tent or yours to come back and win. tough tough ask to win a race like this off such a break, but the trainer would love to achieve just that, would play to his inflated sense of self.
Report wellchief March 1, 2016 9:57 AM GMT
Timtin, this year's Champion Hurdle definitely looks a weak renewal, whether something has to run to 170 - I assume people are talking about the quality of the entire field, or at least the two or three market principles (an example is Douvan can run to a great mark in the Arkle, but it is still a weak Arkle).

We don't even know if Annie can run to a mid 160's in a 2m championship race yet after one canter in a year.

Looking at the field you have a mare who is not a 2 miler, TNO is exposed as not being CH winning class (so if he wins it is weak), MTOY first run in 2 years, NC comfortably beaten by the current Champ, the 5 yo's form not holding up too much etc.

Added to the fact that the first, second and fourth from the race last year are not in this renewal, neither are last years Supreme or Neptune winner.

If this isn't a weak renwal, I have no idea what is.
Report wellchief March 1, 2016 9:58 AM GMT
Sorry: 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th from last year.
Report lewisham ranger March 1, 2016 12:18 PM GMT
an example is Douvan can run to a great mark in the Arkle, but it is still a weak Arkle).

How do you qualify weak? Weak in terms of strength in depth? And how do you decide that?

So if the horse wins doing handsprings, it doesn't amount to much, because you already decided the race was weak going into it? surely you should hold fire until after the race, before calling it weak? daft.
Report wellchief March 1, 2016 12:58 PM GMT
Nothing wrong with making a judgement on what you think the strength in depth is like before a race, so it's not daft at all.

You can look back in a couple of years and see how many subsequent winners there are, and things might change, but the point of being on here is to put an opinion up before the race happens.

The Arkle has a potential superstar in Douvan, but who else is there behind him?  There are no top class hurdlers going chasing, Ar Mad is injured, L'Ami Serge getting beat at 1/6 in a 3 horse race etc.

The 2015 and 2013 Arkles are very similar to this one - one very good horse in the lineup in UDS and Simonsig, and nothing behind, and yes, I would have definitely called those weak Arkles, despite seeing a top horse in both of them.

If you think this is a strong Arkle field, I'd say you are the one who is daft.
Report Can't Catch Me March 1, 2016 1:02 PM GMT
Why do you need to wait until after a race to decide if its weak? We know enough about most of the protagonists don't we? Of course a race can sometimes go on to prove you wrong and end up better than you thought, but I'd be surprised if this does.

I think its a weak CH.
Report harry callaghan March 1, 2016 1:44 PM GMT
I wouldn't call it an exceptionally weak race class wise but with the introduction of the jlt chase now, the race is continuing a trend of lacking strength in depth... when you think about it garde le victoire, bristol de mai, shaneshill and even killutagh vic would of been in contention before going up in trip later in there careers but would of certainly been in contention to contest this, i wonder whether it would be called a weak renewal if all these were turning up
Report wellchief March 1, 2016 1:48 PM GMT
I think that would be a fantastic race Harry, and far from weak (although I think BDM would struggle over 2m).

You'd also have Outlander, Black Hercules, Bristol de Mai and More of That 100% confirmed for the RSA to put it up to No More Heroes, Blacklion, SYAM, Vyta du Roc.
Report harry callaghan March 1, 2016 2:04 PM GMT
yes they would certainly been good betting races and we wouldn't be ending up with odds on chances in the arkle which has long been a cracking betting heat and a very tight rsa betting heat... i done my nuts laying that don poli last year thinking the race had to turn up a decent novice but it wasn't to be because the race had no is a shame, for me they should of left the jewson as was! and just made it a 0-155 handicap
Report impossible123 March 1, 2016 4:19 PM GMT
I do not think Camping Ground would run if going is good/good to soft - he'd more likely be rerouted to the WH and given a 2nd chance after running too free in the Cleeve.
Report timtin March 3, 2016 7:04 PM GMT
This CH is still stronger than most renewals in the last 10 years. NC a top novice winner of 6-7 G1s just at the beginning of his career, AP so called wonder mare only lost 1 race when standing up, TNO winning everything in England and only failing against Faugheen and in the CH in the last 3 years, MTOY runner-up 2 years ago, IT a promising Fighting Fifth winner that only needs to improve his jumping to become top class, P&C disappointing but Top Notch improved from his juvenile season and is only at the beginning of his career like most of the others juveniles eg. Olg Guard.. In the 2011 renewal, Peddlers Cross was cut to 6/1 after beating Starluck by 1 length and eventually sent off as 9/2 after winning a class 2 event. That looks a much weaker field assembled than what we have here. The only good thing in that was HF who then struggled to beat Peddlers by 1 length. If this renewal looks weak then you need to take a better look back.
Report RBoyd86 March 3, 2016 11:31 PM GMT
maybe a slight over reaction calling it weak as we have lot the superstar and what many (myself included) would call his main danger. So now were left with a group of good horses who all have questions to answer. None would of held a candle to Faugheen but they are gd horses. Just none are cast iron.

Really considering laying annie power at the 7-4 mark due to her prep and fact she hasn't won over this distance since beating doyley cart, also has had a bad experience at cheltenham.

Identity thief hasn't seemed to catch everyones imagination, due probably mainly to the fact that he wasn't anything special as a novice. Also although beaten arguably looked the more talented 2miler vs NC.

Nichols canyon only horse to beat world beater Faugheen, so many would think he'd be short priced fav to win this. Wrong. Still seems to be calls by some for WH. He doesnt look an out and out speed 2miler, he has had a couple of gruelling races that might of just finished him for the year. Also looks vulnerable to a quicker horse. If fit and healthy though and given a positive ride, would be hard to kick out of the 3.

The New One is very interesting seems to off been written of pretty much on last years CH performance. His jumping has always been slightly chancy. However he should arguably already be a CH winner, the 4 who finished infront of him last year are not running and i think most would say he s better than that. He seemed to jump a lot better last time but once again made hard work of it on the ground. He is the dark one that has a bigger performance in him for me, just not sure if we'll see it. Looks like now or never.

My Tent or Yours seems ridiculously priced  8-1 after 2 years off and no prep, he is talented but has always had a huge achillies heel with his tendency to pull. On his form a few years ago he arguably would be favourite as he seems the most natural 2miler out of all of these with his pure abSility but cant be having him at this kind of price on my mind. Would be looking at place laying if around this price.

Top Notch seems another blue collar battler who adds substance to form, is a gd form measuring stick. Like the horse but wouldn't seem to have the class to win a C hurdle but in a year with doubts surrounding every runner could run into a place.

Hargam- A very poor mans Harchibald got ability but isn't ever going to have enough of the bridle to go past a horse to win a championship race. Flt track bully.

Old Guard- HHHmmm another likeable horse who would not seem to have the class to win a champion but loves decent ground and cheltenham. Very reliable and seems very likely to run his race. STD seems to of chosen TNO over him!

Peace and Co- How the mighty have fallen, a year ago and at the start of this year many where talking of this horse as the second coming. Wheels have fallen off majorly yet some seem to cling to hope that the WIND OP will change all that around, couldn't back this with counterfeit horse screams physical problems to me.

Camping Ground- People thought this was a danger to thistlecrack in WH. Turnedout he couldn't stay and didn't jump paticularly great. 2miles on quick ground with jumping under pressure and with no real form that would give him a chance in a chance in a champion hurdle. Looks like a stab in the dark to me after failed WH idea.

Sempre Medici is interesting, he is classy and has gone under the radar, ties in nicely with old guard. He looks like a classy individual, and his thrashing of IT looks good. Comes across as a bit of a flat track bully but is unexposed, would prefer him at aintree as stiff finish isn't ideal.

So my point is theres question marks against the horses that we consider champion hurdle horses AP, NC, TNO and MTOY. SO this brings horses that we'd maybe not consider champion hurdle class but seem much more reliable and likely to run there race. TN, OG and SM.

This is not to say i consider these better horses just when you take there prep into consideration there more likely to run there race. Prep would be a major worry for me on NC who arguably would be my selection otherwise.

So I'm left with IT, TNO, TN, OG and SM. IT would be the most likely winner with the right profile, seems to have been campaigned with this race in mind. TNO is a fav but I'm not sure is reliable jumper at CH pace and he may of missed his chance (regrettably out). TN ties in nicely with IT, so he is and so is OG and SM. So thats my book IT, TN, OG and SM. I no i havent exactly narrowed it down to one. Just get the feeling this race out of them all could turn out to be a massive shocker.
Report timtin March 4, 2016 2:29 AM GMT
I will call it a weak renewal if Camping Ground, Sempre, Hargam or Old Guard come within 5 lengths of the winner. I know OG is a very good horse but in a field with NC, IT, TN, TNO, AP he'll be left wanting. Otherwise as I said if AP is what we thought of her 2 years ago when many thought she would've beat TNO, MTOY and HF(Jezki wasn't thought of as much at the time.. well until he won it) then she'll take all the beating.

I have faith in IT as he is a different horse this season and having escaped the Irish CH trap and on better ground he could reverse form with NC and why not even improve into 170 to beat AP. MTOY as I said I can't have but Hendo knows how to bring horses back after long breaks and listening to how Barry talked of him, more improved and not pulling so hard, then he'll also be a threat but for my money I can't touch him. TNO a high class horse but just short of absolute top class, he could've won many renewals in the last 10 years but has been unlucky last 2 years and this year he'll meet the same high level of opponents, good chances of placing but not winning. Lets hope they all jump safely and we can get a clear result. Good luck everyone
Report duffy March 4, 2016 3:14 PM GMT
If Identity Thief is good enough to win the CH, You can safely assume it was a truly desperate raceCry
Report timtin March 4, 2016 5:28 PM GMT
How much do you know about IT @duffy? Was he around for years or is he just a novice from last term who just found his way this season winning the Fighting Fifth by 10 lengths from a 160 horse, that was on an unsuiting ground and jumping a bit awry. I don't know if he can improve past NC or AP but it'll be only his 9th race, he won 50% of the rest, of which Fighting Fifth the most important hurdle race after Christmas Hurdle and the CH.

Why not say the GC is an truly desperate race having Cue Card 2nd-3rd favourite who's been around for ages and his ability is well exposed plus the age factor he won't put a better performance than he would've few years ago if he had been good enough for the GC. But horses do improve in a different season and CC proved now he's more relaxed and stays the trip better, the ability is still there so you can't say its an awful race. Same with unexposed horses who had only few races. We'll learn how much IT has improved based on how far he finishes in front of Sempre Medici who last year was ahead of him in a G2.
Report duffy March 4, 2016 5:36 PM GMT
Apologies, I thought he beat Top Notch a head in the FF.
Report duffy March 4, 2016 5:41 PM GMT
I disagree with you that the GC is a desperate race, I think it is a very good renewal this year....I'm not a CC fan as such but I do appreciate that the treatment he has had may very well enable him to run a very big race in the GC, his performances this year give weight "somewhat" to that theory and in the process discounting what we all think we know about him from the past.
Report johnoo1 March 4, 2016 5:46 PM GMT
I would not be so sure that it is going to finish in front of sempre
Report tomdeane March 4, 2016 5:47 PM GMT
timtin - I think I've read before on this thread that you have said Identity Thief won the Fighting Fifth by 10l from a 160 horse - do you mean he was 10l in front of Wicklow Brave? Seems like you are cherry picking form lines to support your case if that is what you meant. If Wicklow Brave ran to 160 that day and was 10l behind Top Notch, then what does that make Top Notch? And that is the same Top Notch who was 21l behind Camping Ground the next time...
Report timtin March 4, 2016 7:07 PM GMT
WB couldn't ran to 160 that day, he was outclassed by TN and IT, similar to what Irving experiences every time he faces a fast pace throughout as he can't cope with it and finishes his races well beaten. Outclassing a 160 horses means they're near top class but IT in particular with better ground and improved jumping its not a great leap of imagination to see him running into 170 and having AP's measure. Thats only my theory, on paper NC is still ahead of him and we know thats a top class horse already winning every G1 over hurdle bar 2 when facing Faugheen and in Neptune where he didn't had any more stamina to move past inferior(over 2 miles) horses.

@duffy I didn't said its a desperate race, I applied your principle of horses not being good enough one season then improving massively the next and benefit of doubt always go towards novices who didn't had enough races to reach their potential. A horse like CC is exposed, we know its ability and the only difference this year is he was helped by operations to relax and not choke, resulting in better results over further. IT hasn't been given the chance to show how good he is, just like most other novices that are in the CH so calling the race a weak one is an opinion that I can't accept until we actually see what happens in the race. The race on paper looks average, but it looks that way because the talented youngsters that come into it haven't got the chances to prove their worth and from where I'm standing I've given examples in last 5 years where ~160 rated horses that came into the race finished close runner-ups(Peddlers 162, Countrywide 158) or even winning it(Rock on Ruby 158, Jezki 165, 2011 HF 167) and they didn't faced as many as talented horses all at once like this year, one of them has to rise above them.
Report ACStafford March 4, 2016 7:36 PM GMT
Wicklow Brave clearly didn't run to form at Newcastle, which wasn't surprising given his long racing year. He may prove to be a 170+ horse and is open to improvement, but he didn't run to that figure then. I'm struggling to form an opinion of who is value here; a lot of questions to answer. MTOY would be interesting if we had a good idea that he was near his best and is fit enough to perform to that level, but that requires a lot of faith. Top Notch seems a fair enough price and I think he has a fair chance of placing.
Report maelduin March 4, 2016 7:53 PM GMT
@timtin there is no way in hell the winner of this CH runs to a rating of 170. You're probably looking at around 163 or so which is the reason why i think AP is fav. Seriously though all it will take is one of the oldies putting in a stellar performance or one of the newbies like IT putting in a career best performance.

Boy do i miss Faugheen. Sad
Report scooby91 March 4, 2016 8:05 PM GMT
If annie runs to her rating and receiving 7 1b then you would have to run to 170 to beat her .
Report timtin March 4, 2016 8:09 PM GMT
AP stood a massive shot 2 years ago, what changed? She was about to destroy the marees last year and she looked as good on reappearance, whatever beats her will need to put a career best performance and run around 170. I don't think they'll send her CH and Ruby riding if they don't think the world of her. Not many first season out of novices come with big ratings in the race @maelduin, we have a majority of 160 horses in this, to say the winner will have to run to 163 is assuming that 6-7 ~160 rated horses will finish 1-2 lengths apart, surely a horse will split from them and win by a some margin and depending how far he'll put a performance of at least 165. If a horse finishes just a nose ahead of AP and everything in behind suggest she ran to her current 162 rating then the winner is 169 rated which is average. If she runs to 162 and a horse like IT or NC beats her by 3-4 lengths then the 170 is reached. Everything depends on how they finish and thats why I keep mentioning that without seeing the race we have no idea what kind of renewal this will be, but with so many quality horses in it its surely going to be competitive which some confuse with weak. Not all competitive races are weak.
Report maelduin March 4, 2016 8:27 PM GMT
Sure if AP she runs to her rating then it could be a 170 performance but i honestly don't think she has run anywhere near 160 since the WH. She was in the process of running to about 155 or so in the Mares before she fell. It's a huge ask to think she can put in a 163 performance off a injured riddled season with 1 run. If she does then she wins but she won't be carrying my money or anything else for that matter. The most open CH in years with a serious lack of quality. imo.
Report timtin March 4, 2016 9:01 PM GMT
so you think that Polly Peachum who was rated 155 and Glens Melody 150, beating them 10+ lengths thats 155 performance? I'd say it would've been easily around 165 performance. Bitofapuzzle back in third won in style the Fairyhouse mares G1 a month later. AP would've beat these 3 by at least 10 lengths.
Report stevo1 March 4, 2016 9:06 PM GMT
But she didnt she fell
Report buddeliea March 4, 2016 9:12 PM GMT
Well she's not a 2 miler.
What she doing at the head of the market with the prep she's had......God only knows!!
Maybe she can get away with it against this field.i seriously doubt it myself,but I guess some think she can.
Report buddeliea March 4, 2016 9:12 PM GMT
Well she's not a 2 miler.
What she doing at the head of the market with the prep she's had......God only knows!!
Maybe she can get away with it against this field.i seriously doubt it myself,but I guess some think she can.
Report BornToWin March 4, 2016 9:39 PM GMT
Not for me Annie my dear.

I think the ground cost IT, when NC fought back after being passed. That to me reeked of having the speed to burn off NC but not being able to sustain it on the ground.

Pretty keen on his chance now, OK using NC as a shaky yardstick but connections are keen on him as well and he is one of the least exposed.
Report impossible123 March 4, 2016 10:07 PM GMT
The going looks likely to be no worse than good/good to soft: which ones will be more suited, and will Camping Ground run if so?
Report maelduin March 5, 2016 3:57 PM GMT
"so you think that Polly Peachum who was rated 155 and Glens Melody 150, beating them 10+ lengths thats 155 performance? I'd say it would've been easily around 165 performance"

How could that have been a 155 performance when the horse in 3rd got raised 1lb to 145 for a less then short head beating? More like 147 or so. Also if you thought AP ran to 165 (highest ever mark) on her first run of the season then you must think she is a certainty in the CH (with a prep) as the newbies would need to improve over a stone to get near her and the oldies have never ran to 172. Don't think we'll see anywhere near that mark myself. GL
Report timtin March 5, 2016 4:38 PM GMT
The horse in third, Bitofapuzzle, was clearly underestimated and proved it in her subsequent run when getting an 148 official mark. Those 3 finishers ran to about 150 in the Mares hurdle, absolutely no doubt. AP was going to beat them 10 lengths at least, more like 15-20, so putting a performance around 165 was a given if she had not fallen at the last. Now, I never said she ran to that mark on her reappearance, honestly who expects a horse putting his best on his return after a long break? It might happen but it usually doesn't. Of course, the CH is a different test than the 2 and half miles last year when she would've put easily an 165 performance or when she did ran to 165 2 years ago, over 2 and half miles as well.

2 years ago most thought she would've beaten MYOY, TNO HF and Jezki, but was never allowed to, now you're saying she can't beat the same type of horses? I mean the 7lb allowance makes all the difference she only has to put an 162, her current rating, for others to have to run at 169 to deadheat her and she's capable of 165 at her best. Her biggest test but also a big chance of passing it.
Report Ming_the_Merciless March 5, 2016 4:59 PM GMT
AP was going to beat them 10 lengths at least

This would have been the bestest of best case scenarios having watched it again today.

Worse case scenario she wins by a length.  Puts her on what 151?

Lets put it in the middle and say 5 lengths, this makes it 156. With a 7lb allowance in the CH it gives her a rating of 163 over her optimum trip of 2m 4f..... lets take off the 7 again (v kindly) for the 2 miles trip and we are back to 156 (best case!!!). In fact this figure is proven over 2 miles on her form, she runs between 145-155 against mares.

She will be unplaced in the CH, wrong track, jumping will be tested, wrong distance and she is a mare.

The prosection rests!! lolTongue Out
Report maelduin March 5, 2016 5:07 PM GMT
"I never said she ran to that mark on her reappearance, honestly who expects a horse putting his best on his return after a long break?"

I never said you did. When she ran in the Mares Hurdle it was her first run of the season which is what i meant. You then said you wouldn't expect her best after a long break but then tell me it was. As far as winning 15-20l well i think you're just making up numbers now to help your argument.

No where have i said she can't beat these horses, i've just laid out my argument that she hasn't run anywhere near her best in years and that expecting the winner to post 170's in this CH is a massive ask. I believe a mid 160's performance will do it which leaves this race wide open due to a lack of quality. GL
Report Graeme83 March 5, 2016 5:15 PM GMT
Alot of horses not had ideal prep. I think AP should go CH, and i think she won't be easy to pass at all. Price is shady though, and some of the jokers are 6/4. I think it should be 3/1 the field. E/W value elsewhere.
Report Mooono March 6, 2016 7:31 PM GMT
More chance of John McCririck winning Britain's sexiest male than Annie Power winning the Champion Hurdle. moral, victor and fred 6/4??? shame on you!!!! shame on you!!!!!!
Report Pg25 March 6, 2016 7:39 PM GMT
Annie power has very strong claims! 6/4 is too short but would you want to lay the 11/4 currently on betfair?? She is getting 7 lbs, should have gone for the race 2 years ago, she travels so strongly, bar that fall last year she jumps well. What horse is going to put up the 165-170 rated performance to beat her then??
Report Mooono March 6, 2016 8:00 PM GMT
If somebody said you've got to bet your house on Annie Power or have Top Notch, Old Guard, Hargam, Peace & Co and Camping Ground as a whole rag outside package, i would choose the rag package everyday of the week. I just think one of these outsiders puts in a huge performance and wins it, who knows which one, but would much rather have the rags than Miss Annie Power.
Report scooby91 March 6, 2016 8:06 PM GMT
I'd have to have annie in that scenario. As thats that's 4 out of the five iv completely ruled out imo. Top notch would have a possibility of a place.
Report buddeliea March 6, 2016 8:45 PM GMT
I just hope we have a horse winning the race that was actually entered.Plus a horse that is a 2 miler.
Be nice that.
Report jasey March 6, 2016 8:59 PM GMT
I would rather have the rags also,the only good thing about Annie for me is the mares allowance.
Report denman85 March 6, 2016 9:01 PM GMT
I think the new one could surprise this year, although it isn't a great renewal of the race
Report buddeliea March 6, 2016 9:06 PM GMT
Tent would be the perfect winner for the race imo.
Proper classy 2 miler. Just perfect.
Report denman85 March 6, 2016 9:11 PM GMT
Budd it's not always 2 milers that win the champion hurdle , there's often a strong form line from the Neptune
Report buddeliea March 6, 2016 9:21 PM GMT
Yeh I know mate,what I am saying is I want a proper 2 miler who has been intended runner,not a horse that was an afterthought and has been campaigned away from CHurdle type races for over two years.
Would never have a problem with Neptune winners......Istabraq is my fav CH horse. Hardy a real fav as well.
Report denman85 March 6, 2016 9:31 PM GMT
Only 3 mares ever won champion hurdle since 1927 I won't be touching Annie p
Report timtin March 6, 2016 11:03 PM GMT
not many tried and not many had the class of AP. She has to put her previous best over 2 and half when beating Zarkandar by a street to have a chance against these types but her allowance will make the difference and if she'll work well at home this week I see no reason for Ruby not to ride her.
Report roobuck March 6, 2016 11:19 PM GMT
AP may very well win.

But she has no open graded wins at 2M, raced mainly against her own sex. When raced in open company it has been I extended distances.

Her price even in a weak renewal is poor value in my eyes, would need to be at least  4-5/1 to be of any interest
Report lewisham ranger March 6, 2016 11:44 PM GMT
Mooono 06 Mar 16 20:00 Joined: 03 Aug 10 | Topic/replies: 3,177 | Blogger: Mooono's blog
If somebody said you've got to bet your house on Annie Power or have Top Notch, Old Guard, Hargam, Peace & Co and Camping Ground as a whole rag outside package, i would choose the rag package everyday of the week. I just think one of these outsiders puts in a huge performance and wins it, who knows which one, but would much rather have the rags than Miss Annie Power.

they can't all win though, once you start backing several horses in the same race it's a quick way to the poorhouse.
Report timtin March 6, 2016 11:54 PM GMT
can you not realise how contradictory you sound when you call it a weak renewal and say she doesn't deserve to be that price. I've heard this weak so many times, not once with strong arguments. I've given plenty for backing how this looks average, only because there are many G1s winners in it but some of them are first season out of novice company, so we don't know yet the heights of their abilities. It could look very good afterwards or like you say simply weak but I doubt any of the outsiders stand a winning chance, other than TN who will be a game player if the ground turns soft. I get that you have to form an opinion beforehand but in judging a race, you simply can't, never been done before successfully never will be. Whats worse there are many judges out there that even after the event they still get the wrong opinion of a race. You can form an opinion of a horse and his chances and you take a value price, but you don't know beforehand if your horse will win by 1 or lose by 5 lengths, you simply can't. On paper this looks average not worst, horses coming into the race rated similar won it only in the last 5 years and if you consider those weak, then what is really weak ??
Report DECALEC March 7, 2016 12:31 AM GMT
buddeliea 06 Mar 16 20:45 Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 12,609 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog
I just hope we have a horse winning the race that was actually entered.Plus a horse that is a 2 miler.
Be nice that.If They Pay The Supplementary She Will Have Been Entered.Your Hatred Off Mullins Knows No Bounds.
Report grumpyjim March 7, 2016 6:29 AM GMT
weak races most days 20/1    winner 5 runners   in Race ..? REALITY ......................
Report buddeliea March 7, 2016 6:31 AM GMT
I don't hate Mullins,just don't like the way they do certain things,thats my choice.
Tough if you don't like that,but there yer go,thats life.
Anyway,dont worry about it Dec,my opinion aint gonna bother Mr Mullins.
Report buddeliea March 7, 2016 6:32 AM GMT
And he does train my favourite horse in training.
Report buddeliea March 7, 2016 8:03 AM GMT
I can see Hargam running a  much better race with the ground drying up.
Out of all the ones at bigger prices hes the one who could surprise imo.
Love Top Notch,but he needs some soft in the going,if he got that hes in with a fair chance imo.
Cannot see any of the others figuring.
Report DECALEC March 7, 2016 8:04 AM GMT
It's not an opinion it's  sour grapes,get over UN de sceaux ffs and put the hanky awayCry
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 7, 2016 11:54 AM GMT
I is coming round to the idea that the vast majority of the festivals championship races are won by proven types at the top level, i.e have won one or more of the key trials with a good eye would seem impressively.

The hardest thing here is with faugheen out there is no horse in this field to have won a key trial this season impressively to the eye. Unless you count the trial TNO won, which wasn't impressive but was on deep ground, also a decent 2nd which was seasonal debut in the Xmas hdl behind faugheen.

The fighting fifth (IT) but to me wasn't impressive to the eye

5 years olds rarely win it,

AP hasn't ran over the distance for 2 years or been campaigned with this race in mine,

MTOY has been off for 2 years,

Camping Ground would have the speed and stamina but is he quite good enough?

Nichols Canyon, is he the same horse after last time out?

If i hadn't played in this race antepost it would be one of the rare ones i wouldn't touch with a bargepole at the festival and can see Annie Power being 4-5/1 Tuesday morning due to the above question marks around the field. This will be a compressed market for sure cos i don't think anyone really knows what will happen. Proper pin job!! May the best horse win this race, surely will be a Sublimity type year where we celebrate the winner, whoever it may be, but kind of only refer to it in future as the horse who won the Churdle 2016 and not as the next superstar!
Report buddeliea March 7, 2016 12:12 PM GMT
Okay Dec,you know best.

Lets get back to the race now,no time for squabbling...only a week to go.
Report ACStafford March 7, 2016 12:21 PM GMT
Just a point about TNO STS: That wasn't his reappearance in the Christmas Hurdle. He had previously beaten Stephanie Francis two lengths in unimpressive fashion.
Report mesi March 7, 2016 1:28 PM GMT
What's the closing date for supplementing Annie power.  Thanks
Report shockster March 7, 2016 1:36 PM GMT
TNO has always got the job done over the last 2 seasons no matter how unimpressive he has looked except when he has come up against Faugheen. 7 wins from 9 runs.  No Faugheen this time and that will do for me.
Report ACStafford March 7, 2016 4:03 PM GMT
6 day decs I believe mesi, so Wednesday.
Report mesi March 7, 2016 5:06 PM GMT
Report scooby91 March 12, 2016 5:32 PM GMT
Won't make a difference to the principles but....

On to the Champion Hurdle. Paul Nicholls says that Old Guard worked "absolutely dire" this morning. "For whatever reason, he didn't work very well. The girl who rides him was almost in tears. He usually works very well but for some reason he didn't today, so we'll just hope he is okay tomorrow and Monday."
Report scooby91 March 12, 2016 5:34 PM GMT
Jockey bookings confirmed by Hendo for his five runners - as previously stated. MTOY - BJG Hargam - M Walsh Top Notch - Jacob (probably) Peace & Co - Nico (probably) Sign Of A Victory - A Tinkler
Report scooby91 March 13, 2016 10:40 AM GMT
All 13 declared for Tuesday's #ChampionHurdle & Ruby Walsh rides favourite ANNIE POWER with Paul Townend on NICHOLS CANYON #Cheltenham
Report scooby91 March 13, 2016 10:56 AM GMT
I'll go with.
1st DH annie power/nichols canyon
3rd the new one.
Report buddeliea March 13, 2016 11:59 AM GMT
Henderson 1,2,3
Top Notch
Report scooby91 March 13, 2016 6:55 PM GMT
Old guard is out of the champion hurdle
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 13, 2016 7:37 PM GMT
My biggest green of the festival, backed it at massive odds :(

I know he had no chance but i have followed everyday since it won on its debut
Report DECALEC March 13, 2016 8:48 PM GMT
Top notch
Barham lmfao
Report DECALEC March 13, 2016 8:49 PM GMT
Hargam fps
Report buddeliea March 13, 2016 9:37 PM GMT
Peace and co 4th,and Sign of a victory just sneaking into 5th.
Report brassneck March 15, 2016 10:52 PM GMT
............................PHOTO OF CHAMPION HURDLE POSTERS 2016....................................................
Report timtin March 15, 2016 11:23 PM GMT
Timeform has a provisional figure of 166+ for first 3 finishers. They had NC on 161 or something before today and now they have him on 167. RP already had NC on 167 which says it all really, they overcame an organization that has done ratings for over 50 years, on jumps at least.

Anyway, based on this 166/7 figure it would've needed an 173/4 performance to be on terms with AP and probably only Faugheen in the last 20 years would've been capable of beating her. I think the 7lb allowance is too much, the former 5lb allowance which Flakey Dove won with was plenty enough. On flat they only give them 3lb. How much did Dawn Run get anyone knows?
Report firstimevisor March 15, 2016 11:48 PM GMT
Dawn Run had a 5lb allowance. Given that in the 30 years since then, only Flakey Dove has won the CH and no mare has won the GC,  so I'd say the 7lb allowance is justified. Hurricane Fly was rated 175, so was Binocular I think ( I bet the handicapper sill blushes when he's reminded of that). Personally I don't give much notice to ratings at grade 1 level at all
Report timtin March 16, 2016 12:05 AM GMT
thanks @firsttimevisor,but did many mares tried it ? HF 175 was a joke, after he received that he almost got beat by an 130 horse which downgraded him back into 171/2 which was really his highest but consistent ability. I don't think many mares tried to do it and even now we almost didn't had her without the injury of her stablemate. Don't get me wrong, I was happy that she won but it would've taken a Faugheen-like performance to get hold of her. Maybe they made it 7lb because they wanted to attract more owners to it and create a spectacle like today? Who knows, it worked.. but still.. too much allowance imho
Report timtin March 16, 2016 12:28 AM GMT
Racing Post just posted their ratings for the CH:

Annie Power (IRE) 5/2F    164   
My Tent Or Yours (IRE)     167
Nichols Canyon 15/2    168

They raised NC with 1 pound probably for making the blunder out of the last, he would've finished second. Curious if Timeform will keep their provisional 166+ ratings for the first three and not take a view one way or the other.

Race looks average but winning it would've taken something special due to Annie's allowance.
Report firstimevisor March 16, 2016 10:07 AM GMT
Some have tried but not many have the ability to have a realistic chance which is why the 7 lb allowance is justified. Annie Power is exceptional. Now Timtin, nothing hurts me more than someone trying to downgrade The Fly - the best hurdler I've seen!! He was still running to 170 as a 10 -11 yo. He was an Italian type, always happy to win 1-0 and always capable of a higher rating due to his style of racing. He was truly exceptional
Report timtin March 16, 2016 10:46 AM GMT
I wasn't aware you can downgrade a horse by saying he was an 172/3 horse at his best(which is what RP and Timeform have him at), that not common you know that right? Its like an 180+ chaser because over fences the margins are slightly exaggerated hence bigger ratings. Saying he was an 175 animal its like saying he was almost at the level of Faugheen and I can't have that. I know that the official handicappers have him at 175 but thats more an afterthought after winning his second CH, almost a recognition not an actual performance he put forward.

But how many mares have tried in the last 10 years? How many would've placed/win with that type of allowance? isn't it unfair for the mares in the past for receiving only 5lb while nowadays they get 7lb? Why are the fillies on flat only getting 3lb? At that young age they're more physically inferior to the males counterparts vs the ones running over jumps. I think there's a case for going down back to 5lb. Look at how many fillies have won the Arc in recent years. Once a flaw appears trainers will take advantage and there will be more trying to win the CH with that type of allowance, if they'll ever get a mare good enough which is probably what the BHA wants and why they introduced the big allowance in the first place but that doesn't mean its justified.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan December 2, 2018 9:25 PM GMT
The APPLE'S JADE comparison with ANNIE POWER debate will continue right up to March as APPLES will obviously get a Champion Hurdle entry. Devil

That 7lbs Mares allowance will be handy against Buveur D'air Wink
Report sageform December 15, 2018 3:35 PM GMT
If they ran it next week, Buveur would be 1/3.
Report duffy December 15, 2018 6:31 PM GMT
Not with Laurina remaining an unknown quantity he wouldn't.
Report buddeliea February 3, 2019 6:55 AM GMT
"We'll go to the Champion Hurdle if you will allow us to run a gelding in the mares' race,” he quipped. “Did she win the Mares' Hurdle last year? No.
“There’s always a possibility she could run in the Champion, but it’s only a possibility. Her ideal trip is two and a half miles, and Cheltenham is the wrong way round for her. You’d be taking on a serious horse in Buveur D’Air, and she would be giving him a length at every hurdle – that makes up for the 7lb she’d be getting.
“The plan has always been the mares’ race and I don’t see why we’d change it.”
O’Leary might be talking down her Champion Hurdle prospects, but he was also keen to acknowledge this latest stunning feat.
After watching Apple’s Jade secure a tenth Grade 1, and achieve something not even the mighty Kauto Star managed by winning a Grade 1 over two, two and a half and three miles in the same season, he said: “She's a fantastic mare, and she’s getting better with age. That was awesome.”  
Rider Jack Kennedy, like Elliott winning the race for a first time, could barely contain his adoration for a horse that bossed the field from the front as they plundered a fifth top-level success together.
“Oh wow,” he gushed. “It doesn't matter what trip, she's just unreal. She’s the best hurdler I’ve sat on and she makes good horses look ordinary.”
Unsurprisingly, Elliott inferred that Michael O'Leary will make the final call as to which race Apple's Jade will tackle at Cheltenham.
As of now, O'Leary's updated view was the only one not on the record, and his campaigning of Apple’s Jade has in general been sporting and ambitious.
Remember, though, he once stated that Apple's Jade would get a nose bleed in a Champion Hurdle. If her performance in the Irish version is anything to go by, she is at least entitled to a chance to defy that theory.

So what do we reckon then??
Report geoff m February 3, 2019 3:10 PM GMT
Elliott and Michael O Leary confirm they would rather get beat in a champion than a mares .Which makes sense.

Eddie oleary clearly stiking wiv original plan straight after race as hed not spoke to Michael who was @ the Rugby.

Who in their right mind would own a star like Apples then go and watch the Rugby??
Report buddeliea February 3, 2019 3:19 PM GMT
Of course she should be in the CH after yesterday.
Great news for the race.
BD the current champ against two mares,one of which we now is very good the other could be very good.
Exciting stuff.
Report buddeliea February 3, 2019 3:42 PM GMT
Sorry....3 mares,Verdana Blue a contender after her last performance.
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