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I'm sorry but when you back VVM for any race at Cheltenham you know the potential risk and I've backed for the Ryanair and my moneys probably done but that's only one persons fault! Mine! no one forced me to and I knew the risks and I'll have to deal with it. A lot of people want someone else to blame when a bet goes wrong but at the end of the day it all comes back to you. If you don't know the potential risks of backing a WPM or RR horse then you are ill informed and should consider not betting ante post. WPM is doing what is best for him and his owners and nothing is going to change that and I for one don't have problem with that. Whatever he does he will anger some people, its like the saying you can please some of the people some of the time.
Like AP McCoy WPM momentary dominance won't last forever and he has to take advantage of his current position. Running plans change due to circumstances as today with what has happened to Faugheen. WPM didn't get into the position he is today by worrying about pleasing ante post punters and say he slightly changed tact? he could upset some of his owners and I think they are slightly more important to him! We can argue forever and a day but the reality is RR has a lot of good horses at the moment but if you were truly in his position would you think about the average punter? We will have those peoples champions who say they would but I think that's just because they have to back up their argument and the reality is a very high percentage od people would do exactly as RR is doing but we aren't lucky enough to be in his shoes! |
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Agree WC. And if you don't feel comfortable AP then that must be your choice and bet accordingly.
Personally enjoy the Mullins factor and if you 2nd guess correctly, value is there. As an example have Valseur Lido on her at 13, best price 8s on books. If makes line up could be 3/1 on day, part of fun for me. And regardless, injuries as trainers step up their work will always take place. Perhaps the value to take this into account has been lost |
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But they often do say that and then people kick off about them not telling the public. The news goes cold, then a decision is made and those in the know start backing a horse, people notice the horse contracting in price for one race, journalists phone up and write the story, and people again kick off because they haven't been informed before the market has adjusted!
It is literally a no-win from a trainer's perspective. It'd be an interesting experiment if trainers, owners and jockeys said absolutely nothing to the press about future targets for a season, and we could see whether people preferred that or the current state of affairs. |
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That last post in response to Eeternaloptimist...
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I can see some merit in what you're saying Tom. In particular the obsession with Cheltenham does drive the issue. I return to this specific issue though. She isn't entered for the Champion Hurdle.
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I think the truth is that very few plans are set in stone (even behind closed doors) until a few days before Cheltenham.
Exactly the point yet the media still feels the need to hound connections until they finally say something so they can quote them in their papers or blogs. Then you have these eejits having podcasts every other week to discuss Cheltenham targets. It's totally ridiculous and speaks to the new age where peoples hunger for information is insatiable. I really pity some of these trainers. |
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The bit that's P***ing me off is not that horses have multiple targets, we can all see that and that's our call.
The fact that Annie Power has entries in the Mares and The World Hurdle and no other race is what is winding me. I've not backed her for either and it improves my World hurdle if she misses it. However, the fact that they can just change to The Champion with no entry has to be wrong and rules need addressing. Horses should be entered at the correct dates for the festival or miss the event. |
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That's the smoking gun. They bent us over two years ago when Annie should have taken her chance and now they may do it again.
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The problem with Ricci (not Mullins) is that he does like to play the role of the people's champion. All that garbage on the Morning Line the other week with the 'faux' apology to Mullins for revealing the name of next year's Min - the cultivation of an image which revolves around him being 'open and honest' with punters.
You don't see JP McManus hamming it up on the Morning Line do you? |
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I don't disagree RR is an attention seeker.
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RR is a banker, what would you expect?
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The year the Festival went to 4 days was the first nail in the coffin for jumps antepost punters. Before that the choices for connections of Arkle or RSA, Pertemps Hurdle or Stayers Hurdle were not causing too many problems for antepost enthusiasts. Obviously this is now far worse.
The next nail in the coffin was this forum. Unfortunately bookies hang out here and as soon as it was evident the new breed of antepost punters were keeping books, meaning they were losing less, the bookies proceeded to open their books with far worse prices than in past years and also slash antepost prices beyond reason after just reasonable performances. So where has this left us? Well far too often now bookies will make far better offers day of race, especially on the tuesday, than antepost and you can find yourself holding a point or so shorter than the price on the day for a horse you have risked injury holding a position on for months beforehand. Not good. In past years the top horses had an uncanny knack of making the Festival but in more recent years there has been some decimating injuries on horses that are bankers bar injury.. Big Bucks injury cost me well into 5 figures linked with other bankers such as Sprinter Sacre. Coneygree had everything and out he goes when a massive career was ahead of him (in my opinion). Faugheen who is the best since Istabraq for me should be a triple Champion Hurdle winner but now this is unlikely. Only when the bookies get it wrong, which is less likely as their antepost books open shorter for most horses now, such as with Coneygree for a repeat Gold Cup win at a bargain 6/1 can you get stuck in. Trouble is injury is not compensated for in the shortened prices available now. |
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My apology.
I remember RR from his days with Bob Diamond, who was instructed to resign as CEO of Barclays Bank by the Governor of the Bank of England following the LIBOR scandal. |
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Would agree with Swardean and Roobucks points that powerful owners and the increase in races dont help the situation.
In particular i'm not a fan at all of 2.5m races and dont think they are good for the sport. Probably not so much now that targets are hardening but a few months ago when i was looking at the top 15 in the betting for the ryanair, about 12 of them were in the top 15 for the Champion chase or the gold cup. There are occassionally horses who cant seem to cut it at top grade over 2 or 3 miles but imo that should be tough luck. Train them to stay further or do some speedwork and/or drop them in grade. For every one of these 2.5 milers in the last few years there seems to horses like Annie Power who can run over either 2 or 3 miles. Not having the 2.5m option wouldnt have stopped the potential reroute situation for Annie Power this year but would have made the situation much simpler. Obviously 2.5m races are here to stay now so for punters its a case of pricing it all in if you have an antepost bet. And you cant blame the trainers and owners for playing the game and you cant blame the bookies. Its just a shame for the sport though imo. |
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Fair bit of teeth grinding on this thread. One or two of you may have caught a cold lately. It happens lads. Regroup, never bet what you can't afford to lose...and move on. To say ante-post betting is dead because your 2016 books aren't as peachy as you'd like is a bit of a leap though, maybe?
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Ricci pays the bills, Mullins trains the horses, they can do what they want.
If you want to bet wait until March. End of discussion. |
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Ruby Walsh -
"Faugheen incident highlights the pitfalls of ante-post betting The disappointment of Faugheen’s injury is still raw in the memory but this is sport at the highest level and we have to accept these things will happen. I suppose it’s no different to a soccer player pulling their hamstring, or a rugby player picking up a muscle injury, and it’s just unfortunate that he and Killultagh Vic are the ones from our team that will miss Cheltenham. It also reiterated the issues of ante-post betting. Punters must really ask whether or not they were getting value in backing these sort of horses – short-priced ones – so far in advance of the Festival. There may have been some non-runner no-bet concessions on the singles but Faugheen, in particular, I suspect was a cornerstone of many multiples. I really don’t understand ante-post betting, unless you’re getting very big prices. At these short odds, many of the horses will likely be the same price or even longer on the day. And then there’s the fact it’s another three weeks before the Festival. So much can still happen between now and then. Think back to last year’s Rugby World Cup. If you backed Ireland before the tournament, the one you backed was not the same one beaten in the quarter-final by Argentina – there were an awful lot of injuries. That may be the unfortunate vagaries of sport, but it highlights the need for punters to get real value when placing an ante-post bet." It's bad enough losing my money now i have to read where jockeys are telling me how stupid i am for AP betting. I think Ruby fails to understand that short odds horses can still get much shorter although if he meant right now (as in February) then he is dead right. If he is talking in general then he is dead wrong. imo. |
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For a jockey to me he's making a remarkable degree of sense. If you've got specific information about a novices target or you've seen something most others haven't picked up (which is increasingly rare) then you may get the value. Outside of that eric_morris explains it clearly and succinctly.
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It was nice knowing you antepost. We've had some fun times, some bad, but in the whole we got on well together.
Maybe I'll see you again some time in the future, but for now, I think we'll have to go our seperate ways. |
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Really delighted to have missed this years Festival antepost shennanigans due to the poor poor value for multi-target races offered by bookies antepost.
Would have had a big amount on Faugheen for the Champion Hurdle at 7/4 but lost interest early doors due to the rubbish markets and it has paid off. Have saved four figures on Faugheen and also on Vautour for the Gold Cup. Thanks again to the bookies for putting me off antepost Festival betting and saving me enough for a good holiday instead. |
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Now it is obvious after Vautour that Mullins puts Ruby's wants before anything else and Ricci owning most of the top animals is looking for big publicity for his bookmaking company there seems to be no upside predicting antepost national hunt results months in advance.
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didn't think I would be typing this but for me also ante post betting on the festival is now dead ,only long dog has cost me as been lucky to have laid off on most of the others ,tbh if mullins horses are involved (and lets face it they are in every fookin race )its a lottery as to which race they run in let alone win .............................will wait to day of rce in future ,
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Add to all the factors that after the Vautour debacle it appears that Walsh chooses a horses target (so he can ride a good horse in each Festival race) and Mullins listens.
Late switches to suit Walsh are going to be commonplace now and the pack of favourites are going to be shuffled accordingly. Not a great outlook for antepost Cheltenham backers considering they had just about all of the novice winners (those you might normally be able to get a double figure price antepost for). Festival antepost is all but dead now. |