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Howdi
17 Feb 16 15:34
Joined:
Date Joined: 13 Oct 04
| Topic/replies: 516 | Blogger: Howdi's blog
Never again. Too many races, dominance of hugely powerful trainer, books skinned. #Thanks for the Memories.
Pause Switch to Standard View RIP Ante Post Beeting
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Report shockster February 17, 2016 3:39 PM GMT
I love AP betting, but this has left a nasty taste.
Report maelduin February 17, 2016 3:46 PM GMT
There is no better feeling then backing a horse at big odds pre-Christmas then watching it progress over the months until it finally runs in Cheltenham. Of course it can all go horribly wrong like Faugheen today. Cry
Report ronnie rails February 17, 2016 4:04 PM GMT
I work for joes  in a busy shop  yesterday had a look at this years festival
a post bets the total stakes would not  get a decent bottle of wine
no intrest  from the punter and getting less year on year
Report Howdi February 17, 2016 4:07 PM GMT
INTERESTING CHEERS RON
Report baNjackst February 17, 2016 4:20 PM GMT
I totally agree Ante Post is dead and buried. The connection between the powerful stable and Paddies and now Paddies and B/fair ain't going to improve things for the future. If what I'm led to believe is true and persons were laying Faugheen in the last few days why did it take till today to make an announcement. Why was there a change in plan with AP suddenly over the weekend. It all smells of rats them dead ones that have been lying round in the sewers for days.
Report Mr Eboue February 17, 2016 4:23 PM GMT
Paddy Power's Champion Hurdle market:

Annie Power 2/1

Arctic Fire 3/1

Nichols Canyon 7/2

Identity Thief 7/2

My Tent or Yours 6/1

The New One 8/1

Peace&Co 9/1

CryShockedLaugh
Report delsie777 February 17, 2016 4:41 PM GMT
How can Peace & Co be 9-1 ? That's a joke, surely? I know that it's a sub standard renewal without the Champ, but really? I wouldn't back it at 39-1.
Report HaylingBilly February 17, 2016 4:57 PM GMT
I am ruined. In the last week the loss of both Killultagh Vic and Faugheen plus the now directly linked likely defection of Annie Power from Mares race has left my Ante Post Acca position decimated. The first two were the absolute cornerstone of my AP Acca's going back to April-November 2015 period. Fancied Killultagh Vic way before he became the popular favourite for JLT. Had really tasty prices. When will I ever learn. Total train wreck of a book now. The knock on effect of Faugheen's injury on both Annie Power and VVM will hurt a lot of people I am guessing. T'is the bottle for me tonight. 10 months work and money p1ssed down the drain. I daren't tell the Mrs !!!! Maldives is off this year !!!!

Recovery mission starts 0800 tomorrow morning.
Report wellchief February 17, 2016 4:57 PM GMT
No more antepost for next year for me.  I think that this tipped me over the edge.

People will have done their money on Faugheen (hopefully people went NRNB, but I didn't have that), then they'll do their money on Annie for the Mares or the World, and in all likelihood whoever backed VVM for the Ryanair or World Hurdle, you've done your money too.

The flip flopping between the Supreme and Neptune for Yorkhill and Bellshill (Paddies have cut him for this, but now they pushed him out for that....but wait, they've cut him again!).

Just add that to L'Ami Serge going back and forth between Arkle and JLT, Barters Hill between Neptune and Albert Bartlett, Vautour/RTR Ryanair and Gold Cup etc.  It's an absolute minefield.
Report wellchief February 17, 2016 5:01 PM GMT
32% of my book is now non runners - that's the worst I've ever had, and there's still four weeks to go.

That doesn't even include Peace and Co who has no hope or Bellshill who I've probably backed in the wrong race.

I know a lot of you want Road to Riches in the Gold Cup, but I ask you to show mercy, and let him run in the Ryanair for me Scared
Report impossible123 February 17, 2016 5:03 PM GMT
Completely messed up my doubles and trebles with the 'banker' gone - the others were at decent prices which no longer available now; the irony is the weakness in Faugheen here yesterday has again been proven correct.
Report Ming_the_Merciless February 17, 2016 5:07 PM GMT
agree WellChief, thing is I am sure the prices used to be so much better in the 'old' days (or its my aged mind playing tricks) therefore to lose a bet wasn't that bad as the stake was proportional to the big odds.

The market now seems to assume the race is taking place tomorrow! It is ridiculous.

I have had 4 antepost bets this year when I used to have approx 15.

That said I havent had my kick in the teeth just yet..... can't wait!
Report sageform February 17, 2016 5:28 PM GMT
What I thought was one of my best bets, Garde La Victoire, looks likely to run in the JLT instead of the Arkle. I had also backed him for the Supreme but that was the only really bad run of his career.
Report tomdeane February 17, 2016 5:59 PM GMT
I completely understand how big a nightmare today's news has been for so many people, especially given the knock-on effect re-routing Annie Power and Vroum Vroum Mag etc...

But... I can't help feeling there are some very melodramatic statements flying around. This is the nature of the game and it has happened to us all before and will almost certainly happen again. Ante-post betting is less attractive now than it used to be given the dominance of certain trainers/owners but there are still stacks of decent opportunities.

For people to say they are giving up ante-post betting on the back of one horse being ruled out due to injury is over the top. It's really tough to take but it isn't personal!
Report HaylingBilly February 17, 2016 6:08 PM GMT
tom - I agree 100% and I have been hugely impacted by todays news and the knock on impact. Ante Post is what it is. High risk. But we all get tempted every year as we follow the dream and I dare say I will do exactly the same again for 2017 Festival. The temptation is too great. Cant help myself getting involved.
Report FOYLESWAR February 17, 2016 6:12 PM GMT
we will all be back for more ! all those who have said its the end ! a few weeks after the fes and away we go again ,its in the blood !
Report HaylingBilly February 17, 2016 6:13 PM GMT
Too many complaining on here tonight. My message to those complaining about the impact and knock-on effect of todays news is "dry your eyes and get back on the horse". Of course the odds are stacked high in favour of the bookies. T'was ever thus. Thats how they continue to operate and allows us to keep dreaming. Move on.
Report FOYLESWAR February 17, 2016 6:16 PM GMT
lets look on the bright side ,the race has opened up and from what was for me a watching race now becomes a betting proposition ! theres value out there now !
Report THE LEGEND February 17, 2016 6:16 PM GMT
Tears aplenty so what was the best price Faugheen I can only remember it being 7/4 maybe I am wrong but if plying antepost 7/4 people must need their barnacles tested
Report scooby91 February 17, 2016 6:17 PM GMT
Sage form phillip hobbs just said on atr
"everyone is saying douvan's a cert for the arkle so realistically  we will just be running for place money, anything can happen in a novice chase"
I haven't backed garde le victoir at all so no bias.
Sounds like the arkle
Report THE LEGEND February 17, 2016 6:22 PM GMT
Appreciate when antepost change races ...... That's the chance you take however the pric should reflect the chance taken last year IRish Cavalier entered in 2 handicaps luckily I picked right one .....my reward wasn't that great on reflection 8pts more it won but was it worth the risk probably no but yeas only because I called it right ..... That's what betting is all about playing at the correct price

I am sitting with buttons on Smashing 150/1 for RyanAir & few coins at 75/80s not for a fortune of a return but that is what I call antepost value at its best
Report Eeternaloptimist February 17, 2016 6:26 PM GMT
My mind may be playing tricks on me but I remember backing a defending champion like Hardy Eustace even after it beat Rooster Booster a second time at Punchestown at 16-1 ante post. I also remember backing Brave Inca at the same price when he finished close up in the previous years race. There's so little juice there now in my view. No wonder the bookies take peanuts.
Report wellchief February 17, 2016 6:29 PM GMT
It's not so much Faugheen being out that is annoying me, that can happen to any one, it is the re-routing of Annie Power and Vroum Vroum Mag that has annoyed me.

It's been said lots of times, but I think because one owner, with one trainer can just reshuffle their pack without thinking of the consequences is wrong.

Also, the too many complaining, this has been coming for a long time.  Yes, the bookies have the odds in their favour, but with so many horses being entered in two or even three races, what hope do we stand.  Why not just leave it til the day of the race is the question I ask myself?

Nowadays you are not only hoping for a good run of one you've backed, but now you need to factor in who else the owner has and hope they win or lose, depending on how you need it to go.  For example, I've spent more time worrying about how Bristol de Mai has been running, as he has a huge impact on L'Ami Serge will run, when all I should be thinking of is "Is L'ami Serge good enough to win the Arkle?" - this is before he got stuffed by the way.

When horses are seperated based on their owner/trainer having one already in the race, when something like this does happen, the ripple effect is huge.

I have really good prices on Black Hercules, No More Heroes and Un De Sceaux, but they all need to win just to get me level now, and Black Hercules could easily take No More Heroes on in the RSA.
Report wellchief February 17, 2016 6:31 PM GMT
Faugheen is 5/2 for the 2017 Champion Hurdle - fill your boots - antepost is alive and well Crazy
Report slowerthanjohn February 17, 2016 6:33 PM GMT
Ante post betting 20 odd years ago was worthwhile and you could get some great prices, remember backing Salsabil at 14s for the 1000 guineas after she'd won the Prix Marcel Boussac, what price would the bookies go nowadays? 4s maybe 6s. It's great excuse to squeeze all the prices and say they've massive ante post liabilities Crazy I said on another thread I wanted to back Gallant Oscar for the 2014 Troytown Chase at 10s with PP the max bet was 39p!!!!!!!!!!!! Told them to close my account and the horse was a non runner! Last night I tried to place £100 EW on Holywell for the National at 25s wouldn't accept anything and I've never placed a bet with them?
Report slowerthanjohn February 17, 2016 6:34 PM GMT
The Holywell bet was with Bet****Laugh Mr Ricci wtf?????
Report maelduin February 17, 2016 6:48 PM GMT
I despise pocket-takers but the ones that really get my goat are the ones that come on a forum AFTER a horse is injured and they tell everyone they were idiots for taking 7/4 on a 1/3 shot. Angry
Report THE LEGEND February 17, 2016 6:56 PM GMT
Horses for courses this gambling game 7/4 3/4/5 months before is not for me personally hence not a pro punter that's my opinion I ain't critiquing anyone who does get value 7/4 about a 1/3 but personally not for me
Report tomdeane February 17, 2016 7:04 PM GMT
Also, the too many complaining, this has been coming for a long time.  Yes, the bookies have the odds in their favour, but with so many horses being entered in two or even three races, what hope do we stand.  Why not just leave it til the day of the race is the question I ask myself?

In fairness, wellchief, you could just wait until the day of the race - it is your choice whether or not to play at the odds offered for a given race!

Nowadays you are not only hoping for a good run of one you've backed, but now you need to factor in who else the owner has and hope they win or lose, depending on how you need it to go.  For example, I've spent more time worrying about how Bristol de Mai has been running, as he has a huge impact on L'Ami Serge will run, when all I should be thinking of is "Is L'ami Serge good enough to win the Arkle?" - this is before he got stuffed by the way.

I would argue that in days gone by, when there was less of stranglehold from one owner (or a few), you would then need to factor in how other more evenly-spaced horses would run instead. I don't think it's a different situation really. I also think that nine times out of 10 people worry too much about owners shuffling their decks - in reality, the horses tend to go for the races they are most likely to win more often than not. Take your Bristol De Mai / L'ami Serge example -> Bristol has always been more likely to run in the JLT and L'ami Serge the Arkle, and that seems to be what is going to happen (if Serge runs anywhere).

Of course I know there are examples when horses are running in the races that probably suit them less than others to accommodate others, but this is virtually always because the owners/trainers involved feel they have a better chance with the other one. And I wouldn't be mad keen on backing one in a race when his own trainer thinks he has a better one for the race in his yard alone... Also, there are plenty of examples of trainers/owners getting it wrong without doing so by avoiding a stablemate - mistakes happen in choosing suitable targets, so it's not as though the problem goes away if a few owners/trainers didn't have this stranglehold.

When horses are seperated based on their owner/trainer having one already in the race, when something like this does happen, the ripple effect is huge.

Today's news has probably instigated an unprecedented ripple effect, and I do understand why so many people are so frustrated by what has happened. But again, that is the risk we all take by playing in ante-post markets, and Willie Mullins and Rich Ricci have every right to shuffle their pack as they see fit. To be fair to them, they will no doubt be gutted by this news far more than any of us, and, additionally, from a neutral perspective, surely a scenario where Annie Power runs in the Champion and Vroum Vroum Mag runs in the Mares Hurdle is the best, most sporting plan of attack from here. If I was in their shoes, this is what I would be doing.

One last thing about ante-post betting nowadays - the value seems to be more and more in taking a punt on one you like at really big prices, often for a few quid. The Legend's post where he outlines his coins on Smashing at 150-1 and at 75/80 for the Ryanair outlines how much value there is to be had. We are becoming increasingly aware that bookies don't want to be taking ante-post bets at silly prices, so we should try not to fall into the trap they set us. The majority of fancied horses (single-figure prices) for the big races at Cheltenham will be on offer at bigger prices on the day, so there really is no need to be getting money on them at this stage. Backing something at 100+ in the handicaps as soon as the entries come out is still well worth a few bob though...
Report Swardean February 17, 2016 7:08 PM GMT
The AP game has changed.

Years ago, I genuinely believe there was more juice in the prices.   Someone stated that that they are now priced up like the race is tomorrow.  Like allowance for the imponderables that will happen between now and the race.   Also, antepost markets are still traditional place terms, so do not reflect the 1st 5 places or boosted odds that will likely occur on the day.

More recently we have the extended festival which provides trainers more options in terms of race options and gives more uncertainty to punters.

And then finally the coup de grace, single powerful owners who "rightly" want to keep their horses apart.   But when one goes AWOL, the whole pack is shuffled and the punter has no chance.   

I guess there will be some winners, those who missed the big prices on the favs and backed outsiders in those races may have slightly better position.   But overall a cruel blow.
Report maelduin February 17, 2016 7:09 PM GMT
@The_Legend Don't mind me i'm just pizzed off. Apart from my obvious AP bet i really thought we were going to see a very special 180+ performance by Faugheen this year. Ah well.
Report roobuck February 17, 2016 7:11 PM GMT
Everyone has a different betting DNA. Ain't going to criticise taking a short price if you feel that is value. But like @the legend, that's not my style

But these injuries happen year after year and we all have a choice these days if we have 'beaten' the market.

Personally I'd be gutted if something happened to Yanworth, inc being re-routed. Still want him to win as it will be decent payday, But esp given today's news, I have taken insurance to ensure profit regardless. In that sense, we have that in our favour
Report kevinglass February 17, 2016 7:13 PM GMT
Obviously bad news for Faugheen backers.... but a non runner like that means just about any bet, still in contention is now fantastic value for punters, and a liability for the bookies.

I can't see there'd be loads of big hitters on Faugheen at 1/3 etc, as you'd have that on the day, but plenty of nice ew bets some of us must have on that have now nearly halved in price.

Of course the fly in the oinment is the supplementary entry stage....shame about that from my viewpoint, but if Annie Power runs in the CHurdle, then, there may be no Rich Ricci runner in the WHurdle, so for me it's swings and roundabouts.

Plenty of Antepost value on the exchange still in my view, but not with the bookies, who if you are trying to keep accounts open, aren't worth risking anything more than 20 quid.
Report wellchief February 17, 2016 7:38 PM GMT
In fairness, wellchief, you could just wait until the day of the race - it is your choice whether or not to play at the odds offered for a given race!

Exactly Tom, which is why I have said I won't really be anteposting in the future.  I'd rather wait until the day of the race, rather than starting the festival on the back foot before the Supreme has gone off - that's my personal choice, and everyone is different.

The Bristol de Mai / L'Ami Serge example, I get the BDM was more likely to go the JLT, but then L'Ami gets entered into a 2.5 miler and wins in second gear at 1/6, and then connections are saying that the JLT is now definitely an option on the back of that run?  It was only put to bed after BDM had won well last time out.

I completely get the risks with antepost bets - I've been doing it for years, and about 90% of my bets tend to be antepost.  But I've had a right good kicking the last few weeks, so I've now decided to change my strategy and no longer think it's for me.  Bookies offer good concessions on the day of the race, so I'd rather go with them.

The reshuffling of Annie Power is not money related, as I haven't backed her.  I just don't like the idea of firstly Faugheen's backers taking a kick in the nuts, then Annie Mares backers taking a ticking and then VVM backers also taking a kicking.
Report roobuck February 17, 2016 7:52 PM GMT
Wellchief, aren't those last points relevant to Mullins rather than AP betting per se? And the new races don't help
Report wellchief February 17, 2016 8:04 PM GMT
Yeah, the last one is about Mullins, but it closely relates to antepost betting.  Without bringing up old arguments, I just don't feel comfortable with one trainer having all the ammo, that he can almost completely reshuffle multiple markets with the click of a finger, when thousands of pounds are being backed and layed in these markets.

If they were all in different ownership, I don't think we'd have this ripple effect.

I feel sorry for people who've done their money on VVM.  Ricci said she is likely to go for the World Hurdle after her last run at Ascot, then Mullins says she might get switched to the Ryanair, and now she is clear favourite for the Mares.

I think Mullins needs to acknowledge that he needs to be clearer with the media on running plans and providing updates - he now has the responsibility considering he has so much talent at his disposal imo.  I know he doesn't HAVE to do it, as he's busy enough, but it would be nice if he would (even a regular phone call on ATR or RUK would be helpful, a twitter Q&A like Paul Nicholls; it's only an hour of your time).
Report Eeternaloptimist February 17, 2016 8:16 PM GMT
Or just say nothing and stop putting people away.
Report tomdeane February 17, 2016 8:16 PM GMT
I get what you're saying and I certainly sympathise with anyone staring down the barrel after today's news, but I guess my devils advocate-type response to the VVM point is that running plans for her only changed when other things happened (Thistlecrack bolted up over the World Hurdle C&D, and then Annie Power looks like diverting to the Champion).

It isn't easy for trainers these days - interviewers and punters are more interested in where a horse runs next, or in the future, in the seconds after it has won, so trainers either say what is likely at that point in time (and leave themselves open to stick when plans later evolve), or they give a non-answer and get stick for not divulging the answers.

I think the truth is that very few plans are set in stone (even behind closed doors) until a few days before Cheltenham.
Report Eeternaloptimist February 17, 2016 8:18 PM GMT
They could say, "I don't know. Every victory is something to be celebrated and we'll worry about future targets nearer the time."
Report slowerthanjohn February 17, 2016 8:21 PM GMT
I'm sorry but when you back VVM for any race at Cheltenham you know the potential risk and I've backed for the Ryanair and my moneys probably done but that's only one persons fault! Mine! no one forced me to and I knew the risks and I'll have to deal with it. A lot of people want someone else to blame when a bet goes wrong but at the end of the day it all comes back to you. If you don't know the potential risks of backing a WPM or RR horse then you are ill informed and should consider not betting ante post. WPM is doing what is best for him and his owners and nothing is going to change that and I for one don't have problem with that. Whatever he does he will anger some people, its like the saying you can please some of the people some of the time.

Like AP McCoy WPM momentary dominance won't last forever and he has to take advantage of his current position. Running plans change due to circumstances as today with what has happened to Faugheen. WPM didn't get into the position he is today by worrying about pleasing ante post punters and say he slightly changed tact? he could upset some of his owners and I think they are slightly more important to him! We can argue forever and a day but the reality is RR has a lot of good horses at the moment but if you were truly in his position would you think about the average punter? We will have those peoples champions who say they would but I think that's just because they have to back up their argument and the reality is a very high percentage od people would do exactly as RR is doing but we aren't lucky enough to be in his shoes!
Report roobuck February 17, 2016 8:22 PM GMT
Agree WC. And if you don't feel comfortable AP then that must be your choice and bet accordingly.

Personally enjoy the Mullins factor and if you 2nd guess correctly, value is there. As an example have Valseur Lido on her at 13, best price 8s on books. If makes line up could be 3/1 on day, part of fun for me.

And regardless, injuries as trainers step up their work will always take place. Perhaps the value to take this into account has been lost
Report tomdeane February 17, 2016 8:23 PM GMT
But they often do say that and then people kick off about them not telling the public. The news goes cold, then a decision is made and those in the know start backing a horse, people notice the horse contracting in price for one race, journalists phone up and write the story, and people again kick off because they haven't been informed before the market has adjusted!

It is literally a no-win from a trainer's perspective. It'd be an interesting experiment if trainers, owners and jockeys said absolutely nothing to the press about future targets for a season, and we could see whether people preferred that or the current state of affairs.
Report tomdeane February 17, 2016 8:24 PM GMT
That last post in response to Eeternaloptimist...
Report Eeternaloptimist February 17, 2016 8:32 PM GMT
I can see some merit in what you're saying Tom. In particular the obsession with Cheltenham does drive the issue. I return to this specific issue though. She isn't entered for the Champion Hurdle.
Report maelduin February 17, 2016 8:33 PM GMT
I think the truth is that very few plans are set in stone (even behind closed doors) until a few days before Cheltenham.

Exactly the point yet the media still feels the need to hound connections until they finally say something so they can quote them in their papers or blogs. Then you have these eejits having podcasts every other week to discuss Cheltenham targets. It's totally ridiculous and speaks to the new age where peoples hunger for information is insatiable. I really pity some of these trainers.
Report shockster February 17, 2016 8:33 PM GMT
The bit that's P***ing me off is not that horses have multiple targets, we can all see that and that's our call.

The fact that Annie Power has entries in the Mares and The World Hurdle and no other race is what is winding me.  I've not backed her for either and it improves my World hurdle if she misses it.  However, the fact that they can just change to The Champion with no entry has to be wrong and rules need addressing.

Horses should be entered at the correct dates for the festival or miss the event.
Report Eeternaloptimist February 17, 2016 8:41 PM GMT
That's the smoking gun. They bent us over two years ago when Annie should have taken her chance and now they may do it again.
Report ReaseHeath February 17, 2016 8:43 PM GMT
The problem with Ricci (not Mullins) is that he does like to play the role of the people's champion. All that garbage on the Morning Line the other week with the 'faux' apology to Mullins for revealing the name of next year's Min - the cultivation of an image which revolves around him being 'open and honest' with punters.

You don't see JP McManus hamming it up on the Morning Line do you?
Report slowerthanjohn February 17, 2016 8:48 PM GMT
I don't disagree RR is an attention seeker.
Report impossible123 February 17, 2016 8:55 PM GMT
RR is a banker, what would you expect?
Report eric_morris February 17, 2016 8:56 PM GMT
The year the Festival went to 4 days was the first nail in the coffin for jumps antepost punters. Before that the choices for connections of Arkle or RSA, Pertemps Hurdle or Stayers Hurdle were not causing too many problems for antepost enthusiasts. Obviously this is now far worse.

The next nail in the coffin was this forum. Unfortunately bookies hang out here and as soon as it was evident the new breed of antepost punters were keeping books, meaning they were losing less, the bookies proceeded to open their books with far worse prices than in past years and also slash antepost prices beyond reason after just reasonable performances.

So where has this left us? Well far too often now bookies will make far better offers day of race, especially on the tuesday, than antepost and you can find yourself holding a point or so shorter than the price on the day for a horse you have risked injury holding a position on for months beforehand. Not good.

In past years the top horses had an uncanny knack of making the Festival but in more recent years there has been some decimating injuries on horses that are bankers bar injury.. Big Bucks injury cost me well into 5 figures linked with other bankers such as Sprinter Sacre.

Coneygree had everything and out he goes when a massive career was ahead of him (in my opinion). Faugheen who is the best since Istabraq for me should be a triple Champion Hurdle winner but now this is unlikely.

Only when the bookies get it wrong, which is less likely as their antepost books open shorter for most horses now, such as with Coneygree for a repeat Gold Cup win at a bargain 6/1 can you get stuck in. Trouble is injury is not compensated for in the shortened prices available now.
Report ReaseHeath February 17, 2016 9:00 PM GMT

Feb 17, 2016 -- 8:55PM, impossible123 wrote:


RR is a banker, what would you expect?


Incorrect. Was a banker, now Chairman of Betbright - though I don't doubt the required skill set is similsr.

Report impossible123 February 17, 2016 9:23 PM GMT
My apology.

I remember RR from his days with Bob Diamond, who was instructed to resign as CEO of Barclays Bank by the Governor of the Bank of England following the LIBOR scandal.
Report Pleasegivemeanailedontip February 17, 2016 9:28 PM GMT
Would agree with Swardean and Roobucks points that powerful owners and the increase in races dont help the situation.

In particular i'm not a fan at all of 2.5m races and dont think they are good for the sport. Probably not so much now that targets are hardening but a few months ago when i was looking at the top 15 in the betting for the ryanair, about 12 of them were in the top 15 for the Champion chase or the gold cup.

There are occassionally horses who cant seem to cut it at top grade over 2 or 3 miles but imo that should be tough luck. Train them to stay further or do some speedwork and/or drop them in grade. For every one of these 2.5 milers in the last few years there seems to horses like Annie Power who can run over either 2 or 3 miles. Not having the 2.5m option wouldnt have stopped the potential reroute situation for Annie Power this year but would have made the situation much simpler.

Obviously 2.5m races are here to stay now so for punters its a case of pricing it all in if you have an antepost bet. And you cant blame the trainers and owners for playing the game and you cant blame the bookies. Its just a shame for the sport though imo.
Report The Headmaster February 17, 2016 9:42 PM GMT
Fair bit of teeth grinding on this thread.  One or two of you may have caught a cold lately.  It happens lads.  Regroup, never bet what you can't afford to lose...and move on.  To say ante-post betting is dead because your 2016 books aren't as peachy as you'd like is a bit of a leap though, maybe?
Report quantize February 17, 2016 9:50 PM GMT
Ricci pays the bills, Mullins trains the horses, they can do what they want.

If you want to bet wait until March.

End of discussion.
Report maelduin February 21, 2016 8:38 PM GMT
Ruby Walsh -

"Faugheen incident highlights the pitfalls of ante-post betting

The disappointment of Faugheen’s injury is still raw in the memory but this is sport at the highest level and we have to accept these things will happen.

I suppose it’s no different to a soccer player pulling their hamstring, or a rugby player picking up a muscle injury, and it’s just unfortunate that he and Killultagh Vic are the ones from our team that will miss Cheltenham.

It also reiterated the issues of ante-post betting. Punters must really ask whether or not they were getting value in backing these sort of horses – short-priced ones – so far in advance of the Festival.

There may have been some non-runner no-bet concessions on the singles but Faugheen, in particular, I suspect was a cornerstone of many multiples.

I really don’t understand ante-post betting, unless you’re getting very big prices. At these short odds, many of the horses will likely be the same price or even longer on the day.

And then there’s the fact it’s another three weeks before the Festival. So much can still happen between now and then.

Think back to last year’s Rugby World Cup.

If you backed Ireland before the tournament, the one you backed was not the same one beaten in the quarter-final by Argentina – there were an awful lot of injuries.

That may be the unfortunate vagaries of sport, but it highlights the need for punters to get real value when placing an ante-post bet."

It's bad enough losing my money now i have to read where jockeys are telling me how stupid i am for AP betting. I think Ruby fails to understand that short odds horses can still get much shorter although if he meant right now (as in February) then he is dead right. If he is talking in general then he is dead wrong. imo.
Report Eeternaloptimist February 21, 2016 9:06 PM GMT
For a jockey to me he's making a remarkable degree of sense. If you've got specific information about a novices target or you've seen something most others haven't picked up (which is increasingly rare) then you may get the value. Outside of that eric_morris explains it clearly and succinctly.
Report wellchief March 15, 2016 9:51 AM GMT
It was nice knowing you antepost.  We've had some fun times, some bad, but in the whole we got on well together.

Maybe I'll see you again some time in the future, but for now, I think we'll have to go our seperate ways.
Report eric_morris March 15, 2016 3:28 PM GMT
Really delighted to have missed this years Festival antepost shennanigans due to the poor poor value for multi-target races offered by bookies antepost.

Would have had a big amount on Faugheen for the Champion Hurdle at 7/4 but lost interest early doors due to the rubbish markets and it has paid off. Have saved four figures on Faugheen and also on Vautour for the Gold Cup. Thanks again to the bookies for putting me off antepost Festival betting and saving me enough for a good holiday instead.
Report eric_morris March 15, 2016 3:31 PM GMT
Now it is obvious after Vautour that Mullins puts Ruby's wants before anything else and Ricci owning most of the top animals is looking for big publicity for his bookmaking company there seems to be no upside predicting antepost national hunt results months in advance.
Report FOYLESWAR March 16, 2016 8:59 AM GMT
didn't think I would be typing this but for me also ante post betting on the festival is now dead ,only long dog has cost me as been lucky to have laid off on most of the others ,tbh if mullins horses are involved (and lets face it they are in every fookin race )its a lottery as to which race  they run in  let alone win .............................will wait to day of rce in future ,
Report eric_morris March 19, 2016 5:09 AM GMT
Add to all the factors that after the Vautour debacle it appears that Walsh chooses a horses target (so he can ride a good horse in each Festival race) and Mullins listens.

Late switches to suit Walsh are going to be commonplace now and the pack of favourites are going to be shuffled accordingly. Not a great outlook for antepost Cheltenham backers considering they had just about all of the novice winners (those you might normally be able to get a double figure price antepost for).

Festival antepost is all but dead now.
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