Cheltenham Festival
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From my blog - richardmooreracingblog.wordpress.com
Every year the main horses running in the big races in Cheltenham get analysed to the point of exhaustion. Their suitability to the track, race distance, going, their relative abilities all get broken down and poured over during an inordinate amount of previews, both written and spoken. As such, trying to cover new ground when analysing this meeting is an ever-trickier task. One thing did strike me during last year’s meeting however that wasn’t covered to the same extent in the aftermath. One of the things that Cheltenham prides itself on as the showpiece of the jumping calendar is that the best horse almost always comes out on top in any given race. The track is a test of jumping, stamina and cruising speed like no other, and horses are rightly crowned as the champions of their respective divisions following a win in a big race here. It goes without saying that to suggest that their may be a track bias of any kind would go against everything that Cheltenham stands for. I decided to look back through last year’s festival races to see was there any discernible advantage regarding what position the horses took up during the race.
Cheltenham is actually made up of two very distinct courses, the Old course, which is used on the Tuesday and Wednesday of the festival, and the New course, which is used on the Thursday and the Friday. While both courses are testing, galloping, undulating tracks, the New course is undoubtedly the stiffer test of stamina, with a longer home straight. On the hurdles track, the New course only has two flights in the last seven furlongs, with a huge gap between the second last and the last. In my review, I found that the results on the first two days (Old course) gave a reasonable mix of racing positions for the winners. Un De Sceaux and Faugheen may have made all, but Irish Cavalier and Cause of Causes won their respective races after racing towards the rear in the early stages.
The Thursday however was a totally different story. The ground had been drying through the week, and with rain forecast, very little water was applied on the Wednesday night. The rain never materialised however, and by Thursday the ground had dried out to ‘good’ all over. These were probably the fastest going conditions for a few years at the festival, and that was borne out by some of the times on the day. Uxizandre broke the course record in winning the Ryanair, and Vautour ran a time almost 5 seconds faster than the standard. There were six races on the Thursday, three graded (JLT, Ryanair and World Hurdle) and three handicaps (Pertemps, Festival Plate and Kim Muir). The three graded races were won by horses who led from start to finish (Vautour, Uxizandre and Cole Harden). The first two home in the Pertemps (Call the Cops and Unique de Cotte) were in the first group of horses the whole way around. Darna took the festival plate at 33/1, having been in the leading group and hitting the front after the third last. He beat the heavily fancied Monetaire, who raced towards the rear and couldn’t close the gap the whole way to the line. 25/1 shot Rawnaq came in third having raced prominently, with the more fancied Buywise (15/2) staying on from the back to claim fourth. Finally in the Kim Muir, The Package was always tracking the pace and stayed on well having gone for home after the third last. That so many big-priced horses out ran their odds, apparently by racing prominently, I am led to suggest that their may have been a serious advantage to be racing towards up with the pace on the day.
Undoubtedly the ground was the key factor here. The fast going meant that the front runners didn’t get as tired as they normally would from expending such energy early in the race, with the result that horses trying to close from hold-up positions were fighting a losing battle. This theory was borne out further by the results on the same course on the Friday. The difference here was that it rained heavily all throughout the night before racing, changing the official going to ‘soft’. The Friday then saw winners from a more balanced variation of racing positions. Next Sensation and Coneygree made most of the running in their wins, while On The Fringe and Wicklow Brave came from a long way back. The rain had equalised the playing field once more.
As an aside, the fastest going I can personally remember on the New course at Cheltenham was in 2000, when Looks Like Trouble won the Gold Cup (officially ‘good-firm’). Out of interest I had a quick scan though the day’s results. That day he raced in the leading group the whole way, as did Bacchanal in winning the Stayers Hurdle, while Stormyfairweather made all to win the Cathcart Chase.
I would be the first to admit that this was not an extensive scientific review of all races on fast ground at the festival, but from an admittedly limited sample size, it appears that when the ground is officially classed as ‘good’ or faster on the New course, it is an advantage to race prominently in the early stages of the race. This information is obviously to be used as an accompaniment to all the other data you need to analyse when looking for a winner, but if the ground comes up fast this year, I know which type of horses I will be looking out for.
Every year the main horses running in the big races in Cheltenham get analysed to the point of exhaustion. Their suitability to the track, race distance, going, their relative abilities all get broken down and poured over during an inordinate amount of previews, both written and spoken. As such, trying to cover new ground when analysing this meeting is an ever-trickier task. One thing did strike me during last year’s meeting however that wasn’t covered to the same extent in the aftermath. One of the things that Cheltenham prides itself on as the showpiece of the jumping calendar is that the best horse almost always comes out on top in any given race. The track is a test of jumping, stamina and cruising speed like no other, and horses are rightly crowned as the champions of their respective divisions following a win in a big race here. It goes without saying that to suggest that their may be a track bias of any kind would go against everything that Cheltenham stands for. I decided to look back through last year’s festival races to see was there any discernible advantage regarding what position the horses took up during the race.
Cheltenham is actually made up of two very distinct courses, the Old course, which is used on the Tuesday and Wednesday of the festival, and the New course, which is used on the Thursday and the Friday. While both courses are testing, galloping, undulating tracks, the New course is undoubtedly the stiffer test of stamina, with a longer home straight. On the hurdles track, the New course only has two flights in the last seven furlongs, with a huge gap between the second last and the last. In my review, I found that the results on the first two days (Old course) gave a reasonable mix of racing positions for the winners. Un De Sceaux and Faugheen may have made all, but Irish Cavalier and Cause of Causes won their respective races after racing towards the rear in the early stages.
The Thursday however was a totally different story. The ground had been drying through the week, and with rain forecast, very little water was applied on the Wednesday night. The rain never materialised however, and by Thursday the ground had dried out to ‘good’ all over. These were probably the fastest going conditions for a few years at the festival, and that was borne out by some of the times on the day. Uxizandre broke the course record in winning the Ryanair, and Vautour ran a time almost 5 seconds faster than the standard. There were six races on the Thursday, three graded (JLT, Ryanair and World Hurdle) and three handicaps (Pertemps, Festival Plate and Kim Muir). The three graded races were won by horses who led from start to finish (Vautour, Uxizandre and Cole Harden). The first two home in the Pertemps (Call the Cops and Unique de Cotte) were in the first group of horses the whole way around. Darna took the festival plate at 33/1, having been in the leading group and hitting the front after the third last. He beat the heavily fancied Monetaire, who raced towards the rear and couldn’t close the gap the whole way to the line. 25/1 shot Rawnaq came in third having raced prominently, with the more fancied Buywise (15/2) staying on from the back to claim fourth. Finally in the Kim Muir, The Package was always tracking the pace and stayed on well having gone for home after the third last. That so many big-priced horses out ran their odds, apparently by racing prominently, I am led to suggest that their may have been a serious advantage to be racing towards up with the pace on the day.
Undoubtedly the ground was the key factor here. The fast going meant that the front runners didn’t get as tired as they normally would from expending such energy early in the race, with the result that horses trying to close from hold-up positions were fighting a losing battle. This theory was borne out further by the results on the same course on the Friday. The difference here was that it rained heavily all throughout the night before racing, changing the official going to ‘soft’. The Friday then saw winners from a more balanced variation of racing positions. Next Sensation and Coneygree made most of the running in their wins, while On The Fringe and Wicklow Brave came from a long way back. The rain had equalised the playing field once more.
As an aside, the fastest going I can personally remember on the New course at Cheltenham was in 2000, when Looks Like Trouble won the Gold Cup (officially ‘good-firm’). Out of interest I had a quick scan though the day’s results. That day he raced in the leading group the whole way, as did Bacchanal in winning the Stayers Hurdle, while Stormyfairweather made all to win the Cathcart Chase.
I would be the first to admit that this was not an extensive scientific review of all races on fast ground at the festival, but from an admittedly limited sample size, it appears that when the ground is officially classed as ‘good’ or faster on the New course, it is an advantage to race prominently in the early stages of the race. This information is obviously to be used as an accompaniment to all the other data you need to analyse when looking for a winner, but if the ground comes up fast this year, I know which type of horses I will be looking out for.
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Very interesting Richard. Conventional wisdom is that it's hard to come from the back on very soft or worse ground, I'd never thought it a problem on faster ground. I suppose horses can only run so fast and if the ones in front ain't stopping........
Wind direction is often an overlooked factor as well, a headwind down the straight doesn't suit front runners at all, I suppose that would be more true of the New than the Old.
Wind direction is often an overlooked factor as well, a headwind down the straight doesn't suit front runners at all, I suppose that would be more true of the New than the Old.
Very good read Richard. Enjoy reading your posts on here a lot.
Thanks for the feedback guys, it was just something that struck me on the day, been meaning to write about it for a while! Mightn't be wise to read too much into it, but backing an extreme hold up horse on fast ground would be a concern I think
Realise this thread is about pace bias rather than topography of the track; but a couple of lines in the ot reminded me that the wise guy trend these days is to say that Cheltenham isn't stiff or galloping at all. You want nippy sorts that trap and rail like the 1 dog, apparently.
I think Roobs might have started it, but it's certainly caught on....
I think Roobs might have started it, but it's certainly caught on....
Whilst without doubt an interesting OP, confused by title of thread? Expecting analysis of on inner or out wide but clearly. not about that at all. Up with pace or out back biding time will be same for all courses and yes will be different according to goi g
Man years ago I was struck by a comment from Mick Fizgerald that you always seem to be turning at Cheltenham and that the perception that it is a galloping track is a little misleading. This would seem more an issue on the old course but at least on that course I think you need a horse which is a balanced sort.
Feb 16, 2016 -- 8:44PM, roobuck wrote:
Whilst without doubt an interesting OP, confused by title of thread? Expecting analysis of on inner or out wide but clearly. not about that at all. Up with pace or out back biding time will be same for all courses and yes will be different according to goi g
fair point about the title of the thread!
I couldn't agree with the up with the pace angle being the same for all courses though - if you have ever been to Kilbeggan you would see it is a waste of time being in the second half of the field at any stage of the race!
The 4 miler a few years back with Hot Weld and Beantown is another example of front runners railing well and never looking like being caught on fast ground.
On the old course one is turning practically all the time. A horse jumping to the right is really at a disadvantage. To win at Cheltenham and especially on the old a horse needs to have all the attributes. PFN told all and sundry over a period of about two years that Silviniaco Conti would not be suited to Cheltenham and how right he was. I dont remember him giving a reason for his thinking though.
Please don't ever mention Beantown again 
Anyway, he was ridden by a sack of spuds and flew up the hill when finally given the go, having sat out of his ground. I wish he had been leading throughout.
Even the exacta was an effing disaster. Convinced it was cos they were racecard nos 7 and 14 and some fruitcakes were doing multiples of 'lucky 7'.
£735.30 for 33/1 beats 40/1 in a non-handicap 22 runner chase at Cheltenham??? I was on the floor when they went past the post....and got the final kicking when that rancid dividend came through.
You've stirred bad memories there, GT!
Anyway, he was ridden by a sack of spuds and flew up the hill when finally given the go, having sat out of his ground. I wish he had been leading throughout.
Even the exacta was an effing disaster. Convinced it was cos they were racecard nos 7 and 14 and some fruitcakes were doing multiples of 'lucky 7'.
£735.30 for 33/1 beats 40/1 in a non-handicap 22 runner chase at Cheltenham??? I was on the floor when they went past the post....and got the final kicking when that rancid dividend came through.
You've stirred bad memories there, GT!
It was a very good race for me yes - thanks. All the form's over 3 miles so with some liberal interpretation of what might happen in that final mile you can definitely pull out a wild one 
"Beangate" rather signaled a reversal in fortunes however!
"Beangate" rather signaled a reversal in fortunes however!
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