Yorkhill - Supreme or Neptune?

either didn't get home the last day or was slightly ungenuine to me...

Looks like we have been stitched up again , yorkhill 3 points shorter on the exchanges to go for the Neptune,hope im wrong but think PP offering 14s they had the inside info on this situation, even when mullins said yorkhill would be going for supreme on Monday in sporting life interview. think ive done my dough once again ive been blagged by the mullins/power bull.

If GW, the owner of Yorkhill is to be believed ie it represents his best chance of a victory at Cheltenham, and not run against Bellshill then it ought to run in the Supreme despite the presence of Min - the Neptune has an even more formidable opponent in Yanworth to contend with.

Not sure which exchange you're looking at Tony but this one has him much shorter for the supreme than the neptune.

Mar 3, 2016 -- 4:46AM, impossible123 wrote:

If GW, the owner of Yorkhill is to be believed ie it represents his best chance of a victory at Cheltenham, and not run against Bellshill then it ought to run in the Supreme despite the presence of Min - the Neptune has an even more formidable opponent in Yanworth to contend with.

Maybe they dont think so  (they should no they do train min) Maybe this is a nod to how good min is!?

Don't think this will be confirmed till the decs for Tuesday and will basically be determined by Min's wellbeing. If he turns up fit and well for the Supreme, then Ruby will ride. Yorkhill for the Neptune then, Yanworth or no as Ruby can ride it. Bet to nothing ew at 6/1 NRNB. Certain to hit the frame if he runs.

Graham Wylie did a piece with Emmet Kennedy last night, and he seemed to think that Yorkhill was more likely to be running in the Supreme, and Bellshill the Neptune.

Think you have it spot on there festivalfanatic

Just tweeted and got a response from Emmet Kennedy and he said nothing confirmed, however definitely leaning towards Supreme with Yorkhill and Neptune for BellsHill.  He said it's on the FinalFurlong Podcast. Link below.

http://www.attheraces.com/finalfurlongpodcast

I think they have consistently said Bellshill goes to Neptune. Line through last run and plan remains on track. Which does lead you to think Yorkhill goes to the Supreme.

Apologies here is the most recent (Yesterday) Wylie interview where he says still leaning towards Supreme with Yorkhill, but also discusses his other horses.

https://soundcloud.com/emmet-kennedy/graham-wylie-cheltenham-interview

Ricci says Long Dog for Neptune. Thomas Hobson for Bartlett.

Where is Bellshill running?

Lot of blue on oddschecker for Yorkhill in the Neptune. Cant help but think 7-2 or whatever he is now is touching a shade on the skinny side, even with NRNB. If this is his target and where he is intended to run, then I can't work out why 00 Seven is 8 times the price at 25-1.

He was 2 1/2 lengths back in second in the Tolworth, he's beaten the same Betfair winner than Yorkhill has. He's come out and won over 3 miles so you'd think 2m5 will not be an issue. His best form has been on a sounder surface.  Given he's got Tinkler booked you'd think this is where he will pitch up and run so could very feasibly be shorter than the prices your getting at the moment. Im not for one second saying that he's going to win, but if you fancy Yorkhill in the Neptune then surely his form line at 25s is nothing but value.

Market on here certainly suggesting it's the Neptune for Yorkhill.

6.0 out to 10.5 for Supreme, id defo run it in Neptune, cant see it beating Min

Can't see it beating Yanworth,but I do think Min is beatable by this horse.
Personally think the Supreme is perfect for Yorkhill.

Ante-post betting you pay your money you take your chance, but I feel the Mullins stable is taking the piss a bit, statements are being made about where a horse will participate then within days there sending them elsewhere, all the time certain bookies are ahead of the punters with this news, and no doubt using the info they have to affect the exchange, it's insider trading.

Completely agree Bankit. Really are taking the Pi55

Absolutely agree bankit. And principal owner made his money trading at Barclays. Say no more

PP were clearly happy to lay Yorkhill in the Supreme when the money came

PP, whose Paymaster is that? If this was the City connections could be done for the "Chinese Wall" compliance.

I think it's really poor, I totally understand the owner pays big money and has no obligation to the punter about where his horse is going, but it's as if they are going out there way to push money in a certain direction. I don't mind losing an ante-post voucher, it's part and parcel of getting involved, but this leaves a bad taste in the mouth.

Thank goodness for "nrnb": I've laid Yorkhill off completely here and back it on Sportsbook and elsewhere; I could understand if the non-participation was due to the welfare of the runner but not the whims of connections, especially not the pilot.

And it'll never be questioned by media. Wouldn't want upset them would we

The media representatives wouldn't esp the present Channel 4 team, for fear of upsetting the applecart ie their source of info could be snuffed out for good.

I've been following National Hunt for some time but it is only just last year that I became more involved, and slowly but surely, is getting to grips with the horse placing shenanigans of their connections especially the Irish ones.

looking like being horrible stuff...willie mullins should not be saying what he said about targets imo

i for one got it all wrong but am still to bet in the race but horrible all the same for those that have

yep looks like ive done my dough in the supreme, like most of you guys I agree ante post play is a dangerous game and yep we know the risks but this is takin the pXXs, mullins says a week a go yorkhill leaning towards supreme so pp push it out to 14s,yes I foolishly took the bait and backed but defo underhanded goins on here. So in the last 12 hrs it has dramatically drifted on here for the supreme and shortened significantly for the Neptune yet no official news on where it is to run !. So looks like the chosen few are being kept in the loop. Isnt walsh on pps payroll mmm !.

This is starting to get a bit obvious now to me.
Maybe it wont be long before the media start asking awkward questions.
Needs sorting imo.

PP were happy laying 2 points above the price on here for days

in any normal race, in that scenario, they slash the price immediately

Don't know why journalists should be worried about Mullins not speaking to them if they complain he misled them. He only gives them wrong information anyway.

People aren't going to like this and I honestly feel for anyone who took the 14s if he does go neptune.
But i actually find it very useful in getting a big price elsewhere,   since even from the very start of the season, PP have been a huge guide on targets on the mullins horses.  The only time iv seen them get it wrong is straight after a race at the weekend.  Then they seem to adjust accordingly on a Monday evening.

Scooby I'm not sure that's the point and anyway if 14/1 was with a bookmaker it'll have been NRNB.

If PP are to be seen as accurate guide, then Mullins was blatantly misleading people. That simply is wrong bordering on something worse

14s yorkhill supreme was not nrnb

Who was it with?

More a case of confirmation bias, imo

Paddy.
They pushed out  bleu et rouge supreme/neptune. Yorkhill supreme. Black hercules and rdf 4 miler.  Shaneshill jlt. Black hercules rsa. And more in the last week to 10 days All before nrnb
They cut bleu et rouge from 40s to 12s bartlett. Black hercules into 8/1 from 33s jlt. Shaneshill 16s from 50s rsa, all before mullins stable tour. If that's just luck. They have a hell of a trader.

Was with Paddies, Roo.

If they would have gone a point or two bigger than the others, I would have backed Yorkhill myself, but because they were a full 6 points bigger AND they push him out AND you know Ruby has a direct line to them, it definitely sent the alarm bells ringing in my head.

Unless you back in the "Any Race" market, or have massive exchange odds for the individual races, waiting for NRNB is defintiely the way to go next year.

When NRNB first came out, Yorkhill was about 12's for the Supreme and 10's for the Neptune, so at the time, even if you think you've missed the 14's that was available and you might be kicking yourself, you're still sitting pretty in whatever race he goes for compared to the likely SP, with no risk attached

One thing I will give pp credit.
When inspired poet died on thw gallops they took him out the market.
When karalee got injured they took her out the market,
same with fulham road.
All of this was atleast 3 weeks before comfirmation.

But when did they go 14s? Paddies have been NRNB for a while haven't they? But that isn't the point

In the last week Mullins and Wylie have both said Supreme and the vast majority of the market has reacted accordingly with one noticeable exception. If they are actually in the know, then Mulliins and/or Walsh have questions to answer imo  but those won't be asked

...but they did tweet a picture of Paul Daniels in his underpants on the day the news broke that he had an incurable brain tumour.

Horrible outfit.

The best way to second guess the Mullins team is to ask yourself what Ruby would want to ride if he had the choice. Although many on here seem to think he doesn't have a say, it invariably works out. Walsh made a big commitment to the Mullins operation when he left Nicholls and he gets pretty much what he wants, like it or not. That's why many of the horses are separated, why Faugheen didn't go over fences, why Douvan did go over fences, why Vautour wasn't aimed at the Champion Chase and why there's still the slightest chance that Vautour could yet end up in the Ryanair (very slight)

There is not any doubt that Ruby is marking PPs card. That is beyond question at this stage.  And I don't think Ruby gives the info free of charge!!!!!!! .....Whether Willie is messing punters around is debatable. In all the interviews he does say that such and such looks likely to go for such and such race.  I don't think he ever says such and such is a DEFINATE for such and such race.  He always seems to leave the door slightly ajar. I will never listen to a word out of his mouth in future about intended targets. It's all b0llox talk. In future if i'm backing one of his antepost i'll just stick to whatever race I think the horse should go for and stuff the consequences. You can see by him sometimes he gets frustrated having been asked about his horses targets. He doesn't enjoy discussing it with the media.

it's funny the way Paddy like to portray themselves as the "sound" bookie - but this shows their ruthless streak. also, interesting that they took a while to go NRNB - probably to milk opportunities like these. I would've expected them ordinarily to have been NRNB much earlier than they actually did.

I suppose at the end of the day it's the owners say as to which race a horse goes for, and no harm in keeping your options open

Id say most owners have virtually no say bloob. You pay a trainer to make those decisions and I don't know many who don't just leave it to them.

fair point, and it does seem to be all about suiting Mullins and Walsh as much as possible. Walsh would have hated missing out on riding Yorkhill so it ends up in the Neptune

According to Racing Post Willie still insisting that no decision has been made about his target - oddschecker and betfair would disagree strongly (though he has come in from 20/1 to 12/1 on here after that announcement!!!).

Seems clear to me that if everything is 100% with Min then Yorkhil will go to Neptune, but if they aren't 100% happy with Min he will be switched to Supreme.

IF people took a step back then they would realise 14/1 was far too big for him in the Supreme. It was fishier than a seals knickers.

All that glitters is not gold.

all is not lost! you can now lay off your 14/1 on here, it seems as though it's not a certainty it's Neptune bound

Personally i don't think anything sinister is going on. Like i've said before the last thing on the mind of a top trainer this close to one of the biggest meetings in the world of British and Irish national hunt horse racing is punters. I think the logistics of getting a horse fit and well to the racetrack over the period of 6 months is quite frankly remarkable to say the least. They are not machines!!!

My hunch is they are waiting to see how Min travels over, i reckon they haven't been happy with him in recent weeks, (hense why we have seen prices in the region of 3.35 3.4 with little money to back) will probably be on the ferry tomorrow and we will know better tomorrow night. I am also expecting to see Yorkhill get declared for the supreme on Monday morning and depending on what they think of Min will either be declared a non runner for the Supreme when declaration time looms for the Neptune on Tuesday morning or he will take his chance and not be declared for the Neptune.

This is a yard that likes to keep all options open right up till the last minute, we all know this, it's not a new thing!

As for this PP rumour, isn't it illegal for a jockey to have any dealings with a bookmaker

it was ruby comments on billy hills radio monday afternoon what sparked the supreme gamble, he was riding him, all over sudden a few hours later they had four figure sum then another one, cut him again.

rubys trying to get this horse shifted, nothing else, the supreme is the right race for him to follow min around, but ruby seems to winning the argument at the moment, hopefully my willy or whatever his name will see sense.

this horse is better tham min, and the best novice in the yard.

Well ive backed yorkhill 10s any race and 16s neptune and have laid him at 5 neptune now and at 8.58 and 14s supreme so im financially sound on the horse. Of course i would prefer neptune but i am happy with either. I've not a bean on Min.

Sorry got me numbers a bit wrong, laid Yorkhill in neptune at 7.22 average odds and 8.58 in supreme. Just laid him £3 @ 14 cos my hunch is he goes neptune.

Min travelled over today with the Tuesday horses

No problems hopefully delsie

money coming for yorkhill for supreme

yes i spotted this strong support for Yorkhill in the supreme again today, still don't think its at all clear which way its going, most of this money can't be that well informed. Very interesting back and forth none the less

market manipulation @ its finest

Still adamant he should go supreme. No doubt in my mind the best races for the horses are.

Supreme Yorkhill
Neptune Bellshill
AB up for review

I hope that's the way they go. But it's doubtful.
Very strange not knowing just 48 hours away.

If the applied logic above is to be believe. Paddy are 8-1 on Bellshill & 10s on Up For Review in the spud race.

Jesus this is getting stressful

No chance bellshill goes AB. It's nrnb now so I wouldn't read anything into that.
Might be saying different this time tomorrow though lol.

geoff m 13 Mar 16 09:19 Joined: 23 Feb 03 | Topic/replies: 8,094 | Blogger: geoff m's blog

market manipulation @ its finest


Yep, the odd £2-£25 gets matched here and there makes it market manipulation

Might it not be, depending on your pocket, people taking a view either way Maybe a layer punter(s) being able to at least try to sort out a bad traded market I know i've had a couple of bad ones this year where i've tried to claw it back on yoyo'ing selections, WDW in the triumph has been my selection for that one.

No one knows really do they? No one will know till tonight at the very earliest, declaration time for the Neptune at the very latest

Yorkhill is only 3 (was 12 or more just a few days ago) and 5 respectively for the Supreme and Neptune; if the presence of Min is a deterrent and Yorkhill ends up in the Neptune, and no two GW horses run in the same race I think probably rather than possibly Bellshill will be the sub for the Supreme considering the latter ran in the race won by Bleu Et Rouge (18f).

Picture on twitter of ruby on min and paul townend on yorkhill walking round the course, ever that means anything I'm not sure, good that there both there and sound anyway

Well he can't sit on both at the same time

Dec

He could stand on both at the same time......seen it at the circus.

More chance of him falling off

Well the clown of the forum has been exposed

Niall Hannity ‏@Niallhannity  1m1 minute ago
Yorkhill is NOT declared for @SkyBet Supreme @CheltenhamRaces tomorrow. 14 runners.

Yorkhill not declared for the Supreme.

But bellshill is
Looks like ruby going to get his dream line up.
Will be no suprise at all, Longdog going albert bartlett  now

Disappointment for Yorkhill backers, and money down the plug hole on here, but Min backers must be breathing a sigh of relieve a creditable opponent not in the line up. So, there is gravitas with PP after all.

Anyone prepared to trade Bellshill? Still a formidable opponent to others if last run was disregarded.

Surprise surprise!!
At least I got three figures for Bellshill the other day,needs to improve massively on last time,but some consolation for Yorkhill I guess.

Had a go on Bellshill for this at 50s on the machine when Min drifted the week after Faugheen came out. It was a complete fear based punt as I'm on Min, and was the only thing jumping out at a price based on 2m good ground bumper form. Quietly happy with this news

ruby has got his way, doesnt run tuesday

Last year WPM/GW "misplaced" Shaneshill, could it be a double this year eg Yorkhill (Neptune) and Shaneshill (RSA)?

Bit of a risk, but Wylie is the one who is easiest to manoevre. Hendo won't be displeased.

Anyone know when boyles went nrnb for supreme

This thread could now be renamed: Yorkhill - Hurdling or Chasing?

Even by Willie's standards it is remarkable that it is December next week and we still don't know what a horse of this class will be doing. Has two entries, one in the Hattons Grace and one in the Drinmore. Surely it would be a big ask to pitch him straight into the Drinmore. And if all is not well with Annie Power and Faugheen, he could well go for the HG. If he wins that impressively, what then?! Champion Hurdle horse?

It would be Champion Hurdle all day for me.

1. Faugheen has been injured and has a slight setback this year
2. Annie beat a 700+ day off the track MTOY last year by 4.5 lengths; I think Yorkhill would be a much tougher nut to crack than MTOY
3. The Neptune is a cracking Champion Hurdle trial
4. Mullins was talking about stepping Nichols Canyon up in trip next time, leaving Wylie with nothing for the RSA
5. The better novices from last year (Altior and Yanworth) won't be going for this, so it will be roughly the same Champion Hurdle field as last year, so he would be the up and coming unexposed one.  Last year's 4 yo have something to prove (Apple's Jade/Ivanovich doesn't look good enough...)
6. If he goes chasing, I can see it being JLT - what would you rather win, a JLT or Champion Hurdle?!?

I would be all over the 16's, but with Mullins' record of switching and Paddy being a standout price, you couldn't back with any confidence at all.

4. Mullins was talking about stepping Nichols Canyon up in trip next time, leaving Wylie with nothing for the Champion Hurdle

Don't know what made me type RSA!

Despite his win in the Neptune and the fact the Champion Hurdle is lacking strength in depth, Yorkhill is bred to be a chaser and I'd hope that is the route they go. You don't get many Presenting progeny running in the Champion Hurdle and all the very best offspring have been out and out chasers including 2 Gold Cup winners and other high profile chase winners. Yorkhill is in that mould and even if he goes to the JLT, it will just be the novice stepping stone to better things the year after.

Whilst it's  very hard to argue with your point about Presenting progeny Jackie, he has produced some crack hurdlers, like Dunguib.

I think Yorkhill shows an unusual amount of speed for a Presenting horse and the way he won the Neptune, I think it would be hard to argue that he couldn't compete in a CH. He was absolutely spring heeled.

It's a really tricky decision for sure. Especially when you consider Wylie has Shaneshill, Bellshill, Black Hercules and Nichols Canyon and will presumably want them all keeping apart.

Whilst it would be nice to see him in the CH I personally think it's very unlikely providing faughheen and AP remain sound, we know what the stable is like and having both faugheen and AP in it isn't even a given so adding another big gun and putting 3 stars in one race seems a non starter to me.

Walsh was already anticipating the logistical problems as soon as he got off Yorkhill last year with his Arkle Arkle Arkle!!! proclamations.

Completely with Wellchief here. Why do people want to waste a really good novice hurdler by sending it chasing? Same problem with Altior this year. Much more prestige in winning a CH than an Arkle or JLT. Yorkhill has bundles of pace and class and is CH material all over. The main problem is Mullins and Walsh being selfish jerks. Doing what's best for themselves and not what's best for the horse or the owner. Walsh is a genius in the saddle but by god he is an arrogant and insufferable pr1ck out of it. Mullins worse, suspect he has been stung by the Vautour incident but that was his own fault given he apparently can't bear to run his horses against each other. His deception is appalling and lack of openness with the press embarrassing. He and Walsh hate punters and seemingly deliberately mislead them so they can have a little chuckle to themselves. Awful human beings and it would be great to see someone really nail them and hold them to account. Instead we get this "no decision made" rubbish, or worse disinformation about their targets. PP in the know all along as above regarding last year's Supreme/Neptune betting - Walsh should be investigated.

Rant over!

I put him up as my novice to follow last October and he was electric at Cheltenham and the drop to 2m shouldn't be a massive problem, but are people not concerned about his last two runs - was massively below par at Aintree and Punchestown - was amazed they even ran at Punchestown.

The fact he still hasn't been out suggests there may still be an issue with him?

I think Yorkhill went to the well too often last season. I also think he is ready to run but connections are deliberating over what discipline eg fences or hurdles, and to find an appropriate slot in amongst all Mullins' other runners. The way the welfare of the front two in the Champion Hurdle (CH) are concern especially Annie Power, and the beating of VVM over the weekend Yorkhill could be used as the reserve for the CH, I think.

Assuming he comes back as good, or even nearly as good, as he was then surely Faugheen is still the stable No.1 for the CH.

Great post Workforce...couldn't agree more.just posted not quite as forceful an opinion bit imo you are bang on.
Seen your namesake win an Arc by way, top drawer too

YORKHILL entered in a beginners chase this weekend!

In the interest of some balance I think workforce post is 75% bollox. 25% I agree with is the glut of quality horses going novice chasing, Altior, Min, Yorkhill etc....why ? take out annie power and faugheen (getting injured and both now getting on a little) (and i suppose VVM) and there is primarily trash in the champion hurdle league. Any one of my aforementioned and indeed other novices could have the CH at their mercy for a couple of years. if you say 'well its to avoid ricci's horses then that doesnt stack as nothing will beat Douvan over 2 miles. cant disagree more about Mullins.....he leaves everything til last minute, so what ? he's not in it for your benefit he's the best cos he makes the right decisions for the benefit of his owners which often means leaving decisions late based on whose best at what. re nichols canyon why not step up to 3 miles as he wont beat a fit faugheen or AP....however if they do bomb out I bet he'll run it in the CH. Both ricci/wylie/supreme racing club etc ALWAYS report they are firmly happy with mullins modus operandi. If you say Wylie's interview on on the line this week that is patently clear. he also told the story of Mullins/Kirk buying two top dollar horses in the spring/whenever to goto wylie and Ricci. wylie was given first choice and chose his (Vent d'autumne) who then got a slight injury and Ricci got his reject....getabird. thats the way it goes as Mr Wylie rightly stated.

I'd agree entirely the Champion Hurdle (CH) is wide open if the Mullins' hotpots eg Faugheen and Annie Power are absent (older, injury prone and not progressing), and this (possible) scenario has not gone unnoticed because another owner and trainer ie JP/King have rerouted Yanworth this way.

So, who from the Mullins' juvenile/novice rank to fill this void to retain the CH crown for Mullins? VVM is exposed and may not be good enough and neither is Min; I think the best candidate is undoubtedly Yorkhill, the conqueror of Yanworth especially if Altior is still Arkle bound.

As for Nichols Canyon (potential fully exposed over 16f) steeping up in distance he's been withdrawn from the Long Walk this saturday; his performances in the 2015 Neptune and the Doom Bar last season over 20f did not inspire confidence either.

Comments understood. as it goes i think altior or min (unexposed) would blow yanworth or yorkhill to bits over 2m. Its a game of opinions !

PS same goes for the 3 mile division without thistlecrack - i think nichols canyon is no world beater over 3 but probably good enough to win world hurdle.

Take out Faugheen and Annie Power and it is a shocking Champion Hurdle line up; looking through the list on Oddschecker and I can't think of a poorer Champion Hurdle list recently.

I genuinely think it is there for the taking for Yorkhill.  I haven't written Yanworth off by any means, but I wasn't impressed by his last run, and needs to improve a lot imo; or does he against this field??

Last year's 5 year olds looking nothing special, and nothing has come from the Supreme or Neptune as they are mostly going chasing (Yanworth the exception).  Nichols Canyon will be stepping up, and while The New One was good a few weeks ago, he surely can't win one now.

Arctic Fire coming back from injury at 40's is one at a price at the minute, but so much revolves around the top two; either one of them turn up and they win.

Scooted up in the novice chase
Though jumping LEFT

Haven't seen Yorkhill's run yesterday but Beveur D'Air was very impressive at Haydock.  He was getting weight from his main rival but beat him convincingly enough on his first ever run, against a decent opponent.

Arkle and JLT are the two races I'm looking forward to most at this stage.

The first 3 in the Supreme have all won well over fences and will be running in the Arkle all being well. With Thistlecrack and Cole Harden also going chasing, the hurdling division is looking very thin.