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FWIW Bellshill scoped dirty after that race.
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Hope its Neptune,and I have a feeling it will be now after thinking for some time it would be Supreme.
Recent events and form suggest hes Wylies best novice and his best chance of a winner,but he does have a tough nut to crack in Yanworth. |
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I would still assume Bellshill will run in the Neptune. I don't know if that impacts Yorkhill running or not. Willie stated straight after the race that he clearly expected to find something wrong with Bellshill and he had plenty of time to get him right for Cheltenham. 48 hours later the news came out he scoped badly. I expect Bellshill to line up and we all know Willie likes the horse a lot because he rarely comes out and states what race a horse, especially a novice, will run in this far ahead of The Festival.
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Who knows re impact on Yorkhill.In an ideal world they would probably split them,but recent events have thrown a spanner into that it seems, but at least the price for the Supreme is such that one can cover now, if like me you have him for Neptune.
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Looks like neptune according to betting. But seams kind of crazy. If min and babbling stream go supreme.
And long dog, a toi phil. Bachasson bellshill yorkhill all go neptune. If that's the case they must think min is some horse. |
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You are forgetting Bleu Et Rouge Scooby91. Surely he's as good as most of those.
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The Neptune could be the value race arm . Yanworth looks a machine but bound to be value elsewhere or w/o . What's the fancies ?
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I am mega keen to take on Yanworth in the Neptune. There's no depth to his form that makes him an odds on shot imo. Would love Yorkhill to run in Neptune.
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Well looking at the form of his likely rivals,he's head and shoulders above what anything else has achieved. Shantou had looked a likely threat till he demolished him. The hyped up Bellshill did as well but he ran like a lump of**** last time.
Agree Yorkhill is an interesting opponent though....if he runs in the race,at least his firm is standing up even if it is 2m form. |
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Actually that's not totally accurate,there's form that gives him chances at the Neptune distance also.
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Apologies syt blue et rouge I think will go supreme on the basis of yanworth being in neptune and barry riding, more than fair price on exchanges 44.0 for either atm, probably because uncertainty of target rather than ability
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Bellshill wasn't right last time, so not going to rate him on that run. Long Dog will improve when he steps up in trip for the Neptune.
Shantou Village hated the ground lto and the form of his win back in Nov is weak imo. Yanworth is a deserving fav but he is far too short and only became that price when Bellshill got beaten. He was 9/4 best priced before that race and was evens by the end of the day. I think he should be 5/2 so when I see evens or odds on about I think he's a terrible fav and want to take him on. |
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Fair enough,personally think Yanworth is the best novice around....certainly the one I've been most impressed with anyway. His form stacks up everywhere,but Yorkhills does as well.
His price is short enough though i do agree mate. |
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Will say though, after that run which was mighty impressive,it's no wonder people backed him.
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There's been quiet a few favs beat in this CV so see were your coming from . Odds on for a novice race is insane because form doesn't stack up naturally . Will wait for a week or two then evaluate , do think a few didn't run there race against Yanworth and Shantou is by no means top class . Yanworth will be a monster chaser next year
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Big turn about today Paddies 16/1 into 10/1 for Supreme and 6/1 out to 10/1 for Neptune. As it flip flopped the opposite way some days ago I'd be far more encouraged it might be Supreme.
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I done a bunch of small accys with yorkhill for the neptune. If ruby wants a horse for each race it would make sense. I'll have another small bet for the supreme then leave it. Month before Cheltenham is a tough one for punters.
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Think your right there Graeme , plenty of movement in the last month . I'll hold fire on the Neptune atm. Yorkhill would be interesting though at a price
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Had to back him now for Supreme as well.
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Could be one to take on Min . Hendos horse looks decent also , can't remember it's name beuveir d or or something
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Yep Quevega, Buveur Dair is main bet, and without Min. Been given rating of 154,think will run big race hopefully.
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That's the one Stevo . Anyone heard any stable talk on this one doesn't seem to be getting talked up the way Alitor is .
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look through BD form Quev, that says enough for me.
finished in front of Ailtor on its debut last year when going down a couple lengths to Barters Hill. Then ran a screamer from a dreadful position in the Aintree Bumper, uses its potent turn of foot to come from pretty much last to challenge for the lead a couple furlongs out then gets tired. Beats 6 subsequent winners on its hurdling debut inc Chelt Bumper 3rd wait for me doing hand stands. A nice run out last time where he seemed to settle a lot better as well. For me this horse has the potential to be real top drawer and the 154 rating seems to confirm this! still think the 8's available e/w is massive. I think he'll power up the hill to at least give Min something to think about. |
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Buvair D'air was one of the first antepost plays i did start of October last year when i first started looking at this years fez. Couldn't believe my eyes when i seen 20/1 with hills any race and 25/1 Sprinter Sacre for QMCC. My very first two antepost bets struck on the 2016 fez.
Must say, starting to get excited now |
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Mullins - Yorkhill is leaning towards the Supreme.
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Strange that Paddies have pushed him out to 14's for that - that's a great price, considering his form is stacking up really well.
It'd make my Tombstone bet harder, but I think the Supreme is definitely his race, rather than the Neptune. |
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I've had a bit on at 9 on here without MIN.
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where did he say he was leaning towards the supreme?
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All over twitter as part of his press day
Yorkhill - 'leaning towards the Supreme as he has plenty of speed' |
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Check out @Billesdaile and @fillyonform lots of info on their twitter accounts.
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thanks appreciated, wasn't really involved in the racing yesterday
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not that i've had a bet in either race but felt sure he was more a neptune type and with min likely to be ridden by walsh i'm surprised he is throwing his best 2 novices at the same race
just no point in putting yourself through the headache until you know who is running, bellshill been very weak in the betting for neptune so i wouldn't say this is a done deal just yet but know knows the 4 mile favorite is now being considered for jlt |
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who knows even
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Why has Paddy pushed Yorkhill out to 14/1 for the Supreme yet shortened him for the Neptune after those comments from WOM - makes no sense?
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^WPM
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ive had to take some of the 14s , according to WPM in interview with Ben Lightfoot the supreme is where it will run. however it makes me suspicious that PP Are still 14s mmmmmm !!!!!
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Mullins pretty much said it's going for the Supreme, very suspicious that PP still have it at 14/1, the betfair market really suggests that the Supreme is more likely, but nothing conclusive
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Yorkhill been my main fancy for supreme all year so hope it goes, I would win slightly more in neptune, But deffinately think the supreme should be his race, will improve a bundle for the very likely better ground, and wouldn't need to imo on the tolworth form the way he cruised effortlessly into the lead on ground he would hate.
However, agree with the suspicious odds. Hope pp are wrong for once. |
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Novice hurdles according to mullins.
Supreme Min Yorkhill Petit mouchoir Poss babbling stream/bleu et rouge Neptune Longdog Bellshill Open eagle A toi phil Albert bartlett Up for review Gangster Thomas hobson Likely Bachasson Likely bleu et rouge Most interesting thing for me is he said giggi already have a lot of runners in the race and that's why a toi phil goes neptune. I can't see many giggi runners else where, unless he forgot about nambour. |