valseur lido

Wouldn't argue with that. WM suggested Gold Cup a couple of weeks ago so he had obviously seen the improvement at home. Looked like being a big step up on his form until he came down.

do you think he is gold cup bound?

WM said he thought the run booked his ticket for GC but it will be up to connections who we know can be a little unpredictable

VL, on the KG running, has little or no chance in the CGC, however, in the Ryanair along with RTR, a formidable partnership for the owner to win their own race I'd think.

couldn't agree more, if they both line up i'll be on the one coopers not riding! providing vvm doesn't show up.

Cooper is an alright pilot but seems panicky at times (to me) when his mount takes a while to respond to an injection of pace eg the race yesterday despite 'on His Own' is a front runner and RTR barely stays 24f and paid the price, and DC in the KG.

exactly, just isn't top class!

it shows when some other jocks ride the same horses when he's injured or suspended, I mean how he judged the pace in that race yesterday on a suspect stayer was poor.

Really? So how come RTR came very close to. Winning the gold Cup over an extra 2 furlongs ?

It's interesting that Valseur Lidos best performances have both been with Walsh in the saddle. Having said that I'm certainly treating yesterday's form at Leopardstown with a degree of caution.

Me too!!

I've said it before on another thread and for the life of me cannot remember where but i do not rate Ruby Walsh one bit on producing horses at fences and it was clearly evident on VL yesterday!

Ok the horse obviously knuckled on landing and one could argue that it wasn't the pilots fault, but i beg to differ. How many other jockeys would let their mounts just pop the last fence given the amount he reckoned he had left under the locker more on that later. (Matt Chapman and texts)

It did look like he was absolutely tanking didn't it? I am of the opinion any other jockey would have got that horse over that fence, now whether it would have won is another matter entirely though i have read and watched reviews on both sides and i am inclined to think that both any other professional jockey would have raced VL into that last fence putting daylight between him and RTR at the last and would have got over it with no problems. I am obviously in the would have won camp.

This mornings Sunday forum was very interesting as Matt Chapman apparently texted RW and got an answer during one of the commercial breaks (how true it actually happened you decide lol) saying that RW thought that he had loads left, this was after the biggest most ridiculous statement to ever come out of a jockeys mouth (Andrew Thornton) that only tired horses fall! Jeez, seriously? So horses don't fall at first second or the third? LOL to that! But seriously, if MC really did txt RW and who's to say that he didn't as it was after that ridiculous statement from AH, i think the answer that was given answers everything imo, in that had he raced VL into the fence as i think 90% of professionals would do in a grade one to quickly put daylight between the horse to my left who was clearly tiring and the horse further away that eventually won therefore giving the horse momentum to get over the fence and land appropriately.

I think he would therefore have won and won well. I underestimated VL and have backed him for the CGC nrnb and believe me it wont be the only bet i place on this horse! Ok not many horses win a fez race after a fall, but i seriously wouldn't put it past this beast. Especially if they go off too fast in the CGC as they did yesterdays RGC, as for the winner, im not clock watcher but my opinion is he didn't quicken at all, ran past tiring horses at the same pace as he was running at jumping 4 from home. I am interested in him for the Grand National though!

Sorry about the above essay boys

You better hope its goes Ryanair STS, when was last horse to win Gold Cup off the back of 2 consective falls? At least you will get free bet.

Consecutive ffs

sts - you are right AT did say only tired horse fall - as he is one of the brightest and most articulate jockeys i think you have to assume he realises that horses that fall at the first are not tired - i suspect he assumed MC was bright enough to realise that he of course meant at the end of a race. If anybody else had heard what AT said other than MC they would have given him the benefit of doubt and sought clarification, because it was MC then he wanted to get a cheap laugh instead. The bloke spends his life in the school playground, looks like nobody came to pick him up.

! sure val lido looked to be tanking and he hadn't been really been  asked for anything but how many times have we seen a horse cruising going to the last and for all the world looking like its going to pish up, then on clearing the last suddenly when push comes to shove starts floundering like a drunken sailor ! impossible to say who would have won! .

i think the point AT made re rw was very valid - it is very hard with ruby to know what his horses have under the bonnet - and he is right imo that very often they find a lot less than expected - also different jockeys have different strengths and weaknesses - i would be fascinated to see falls/unseats/mistakes to rides ratio for jockeys - i think rw is a brilliant judge of pace and tactically shrewd,i might be wrong but i wouldnt expect him to figure strongly on a falls to rides table especially when taking into consideration the calibre of horses he is riding - that said i would imagine his ratio would look better for PN than wpm - but again may be wrong.

It's just a gut feeling miltons sophie for me, i use no stats to back up my hunch. I agree, RW is the best jockey around at judging pace in a race but only from the front. Ok might be pocket talking a little bit but i have lost count at the number of times a horse ridden by RW at the head of the market, (clearly the name ruby walsh means that some get overbacked i get that) that are clearly expected to run very well have come from the clouds and failed, or all them ones that go under the radar because hes out the back only for to finish 4th-5th! Not the best tactician in them regards either!

I was a huge fan of RW when he was with Nichols, but since hes moved across the irish sea, am honestly not so sure anymore. Defo much rather back RW on a front runner or an up with the pace type than a held up and also am praying that when i do the horse he is riding (especially over fences) don't get too close to any and have to think and fiddle

sts - i know and you have no choice but to use gut feeling as to the best of my knowledge the stats dont exist - shame  james willoughby isnt a jumps fan - considering getting a horse over a hurdle or fence is of paramount importance it is really quite incredible that we have no way of knowing (at least i dont think we do???) how effective each jockey is at doing this.

sts - you have no choice but to use gut feel as to the best of my knowledge the stats arent available - recognising how fundamental and paramount jumping hurdles and fences is it is incredible to me that we have no (maybe wrong???) information that tells us how effective each jockey is at this.

It's a game of opinions and mine is RW did nothing wrong on VL he sat still and didn't ask for a big leap at the last, then knuckled on landing, pure bad luck. I'm all so of the opinion in jumps racing it's very game thinking what would have happened? VL jumps the last would he have won??? God only knows, a cope out I admit but how many times have you seen a horse going so well get beaten.

It makes me laugh I hear people say Don Cossack would have won the KG if he'd stood up? No one knows, he may have, he may not. If Vautour had fell at the second last how many people would have thought he would have won? But like I say it's all opinions and everyone's entitled to theirs and in mine RW has no peer as a jockey, we all have jockeys that we don't like for one reason or another but honestly if PN could have anyone as stable jockey who do you think he'd have?

RW did absolutely nothing wrong on VL. Going to the last he did exactly what he had been doing throughout the race, sat and let him pop it. He jumped the last fence perfectly then knuckled on landing. The ground was horrible tacky so you will always have incidents like this because of that.

Can't believe AT said "only tired horses fall". Ridiculous statement from him but probably was trying to pissss someone off on the panel. Haven't seen it so just speculating. GL

I can think quite a few last hurdle/fence falls/mistakes with Ruby on.  Annie Power when tanking in the Mares, Kauto smacked the last fence a few times earlier in his career (the L'Ami race springs to mind), Faugheen smacked the last the other day, thr famous Killultagh Vic race a couple of weeks ago, Master Minded did a really bad one in the Game Spirit in 2010 etc.

The thing is though, I can only remember all these because he was on high profile horses, mostly in high profile races.  Other jockeys may have a much worse record, but because they don't get as much media attention and are not usually on odds on favs like Ruby, they go under the radar.

No denying though, some of Rubys have been prone to the odd last fence mistake.  Whether that was down to him or the horse, I haven't got a scooby.

RW won the Grand National when a twenty year old and followed up with another win five years later. As far as I am aware he has never fallen in the race but was hampered/brought down twice. Doesnt sound like the record of poor horseman. Compare with Gifford Francome Dicky and Johnjo records. AP eventually did win it but he had the choice of about 20 possibles every year.

No-one compares to deckie when it comes to last fence dithering, more times than not he sits and waits for his horse to make its own mind up.

Would never worry about Walsh on a horse I'd backed myself.

odds on for a last fence faller at the festival

Oh i do duffy, when its grade one material not so much but when its run of the mill Monday afternoon maiden hdl that just so happens to be filthy each way (cos those types of markets are the only times i ever play in those low grade affairs) i defo look twice, especially if it might be a hold up performer.

Just like wellchief says also though, he aint the best horseman at producing horses to fences when they meet them on the wrong stride, or get in too close. Not by a long chalk!

I am certain there are stats out there somewhere. My hunch is pocket talking of course i've backed a fair few of RW's horses down the years, as a huge Kauto fan i used to love him but recently over last couple years since hes moved over the pond, av started to question him just a little bit more. The amount of times hes on a hold up and not got them into the race (but tried to but all too late)

No have to say, not my biggest fan of a jockey no more anyways! In a grade one i want to see a horse that is supposedly motoring being fired into the last couple to put daylight between him and opponents. After all if they are truly motoring then they don't do much if any damage and if they are truly tired it is then we find out just as much as the pilot.

My idea of abled horsemen are the likes of Daryl Jacob, Dicky johnson, Paddy Brennan, i no hes injured and will miss the fez but one of the most coolest you will ever see on a horse through a race stand up P.Carberry!

Which jockey has the dubious honour of having the most last hurdle/fence faller in the big races? I wonder if one can bet on it at the Festival?

Barry G, he should be champ imo! I like quite a few in fact! Dont think mr BG DJ PB or PC would have got UDS on the deck personally! (note i left out Dicky can't believe i included him tbh)

My idea of abled horsemen are the likes of Daryl Jacob, Dicky johnson, Paddy Brennan, i no hes injured and will miss the fez but one of the most coolest you will ever see on a horse through a race stand up P.Carberry!

As said, he's the worst at sitting still at the last and losing momentum or worse!! where did the term deckie come from? it's certainly not a term of endearment!

wellchief you are right i think its because they are high profile perhaps they stick in your mind - just off the top of my head last obstaclers i can think of fatcatinthehat, briar hil,  boston bob, champagne fever, and that one in the triumph that cost me a fortune in place money , obviously other high profile ones not last fencers like uds x2, mikael d, djakadam, twist magic. arctic fire, abbyssial  - if i can think of these just off the top of my head others can and more i suspect - reality is he may have less falls per ride and less last fence falls than most or nearly all - who knows - i think he is a special jockey but i can see why people may think this is where he is a little less special.

Ms Boston Bob in the Sun Alliance was Paul Townend so RW is even getting the blame for that

Milton I can see how you made the mistake wrt Boston Bob but thats why this thread exists because their is a perception out there. Boston Bobs fall cost me an awful lot of money and I feel he would have won with Ruby in the saddle but of course we can never be certain of that.

Its amazing that the two most successful trainers on both sides of the pond entrusts/entrusted RW with their horses. I'd imagine they know more about horse-riding than most/all on here!

... ffs there

Oh Arklearkle they wouldn't

Know would have to agree with stj there, perfect example, McCoy on kauto star

Ffs nichols lol

And Lord Windermere would have caught BB anyhow, and I was on BB too, windy had been hampered turning in but picked up again and was almost at BB by the time he got to the last.

arkle - he can be the best overall jockey without being the best at all aspects - and with complete respect to everyone - i would rather have independent data helping me decide than anecdotal evidence from either fans or detractors - and that absolutely includes my own anecdotal data - which my RSA mistake evidences. The fact there are very knowledgeable people on here that see this completely differently proves to me that there is room for more data to tell us either way. My guess is if you are a big fan of RW you will defend his faller record even though you dont know what it is or how on a rate basis it stacks up against others and if you are either not a fan or are but think this is his weakish point, you will criticise it without knowing how it stacks up.

Everyone makes mistakes, I would love a poll of the top jockeys and trainers who they would rate as the best horseman, it would be very interesting. I'm a big fan of RW because I regard him as the best jockey and horseman around at the moment by some way. Just my opinion and like I say everyone's entitled to theirs it just doesn't make it right.

I do find it laughable that anyone would blame RW for VL on Saturday, apart from superglue don't see a lot more anyone could have done.

Ms Arctic Fire was a last hurdle faller as well.

Milton I am a fan and I do well backing his mounts and I would be always be happy if he rather than any other jockey is on my one. Independent data is yes ok but it has to tell the whole story.

slower - you are proving my point - you are talking about polling people - thats anecdotal - i am not having a go nor am i saying RW is not the best - i think anecdotes play their part and certainly add emotion and interest but measuring effectiveness is becoming more scientific and data driven in many sports and imagine its only a matter of time before it starts playing a much bigger role in measuring a jockeys effectiveness.

And thank you for correcting me on arctic fire - i couldnt remember if it was last or second last so didnt want to unnecessarily upset anyone by putting it in the last fence list i know how sensitive this stuff is

arkle - yes it does and at the moment it doesnt get anywhere close - so we dont actually know  much about a jockey other than at a macro level - but fwiw if i had to trust my financial future to one jockey rw would be second in my list - but mine is a completely meaningless opinion

Don't worry like RW we all make mistakes, so as matter of interest MS who's you no.1?

By the way it's not at all sensitive to me but Paul Townend and Arctic Fire aren't opinions just facts like the data you'd like.

- P Carb

I think P Carberry is top jockey, someone who if was as driven as AP or RW could have been possibly better than either.

slower -  it was just a list off the top of my head - wow you are some hard marker

Veryif you are making a case against someone the facts have to be right, otherwise you are only adding fuel to an already uncontrollable fire. I'll forgive you MS

slower - just to show i can match you for pedantry - many would say that more drive wouldnt have made him better just more successful

wasnt aware i was making a case against anyone - think thats what i mean by sensitivity

P.Carberry is one of the if not the coolest jock ive ever witnessed imo! Top jockey, completely agree there!

I personally think PC could have been better and not just more successful and that's not trying to save my remark. I was lucky enough to a few years ago have shares in horses and was with a certain Irish trainer who was based in the North who for a short time had PC riding almost as stable jockey. PC was an amazing judge of a horse who had a brilliant ability to tell the trainer where to run his horses. Around this time we all enjoyed a great time betting wise 99% thanks to PCs judgement. But lets just say PC enjoyed himself too much to reach the heights his undoubted talents could have. A top man and top jockey, who in my opinion could been a better and more successful jockey but who am I to say, he enjoyed himself and fair play to him.

Sorry MS case was probably the wrong term and you can say whatever you like because I'm too thick to be sensitive

But can't forgive you blaming poor old side lined Ruby for Boston Bob

slower 100% agree he could have been better than he was - my comment was in reference to your comparison to rw and ap not to himself -  if that makes sense

fair point - wasnt after he had a bad fall was it

somehow suspect oyu would quite like to be underestimated - not happening here im afraid

Ok I honestly think PC has more natural talent than either AP or RW and just feel is he was as driven as those two are could have been the best but that's just me.

Milton it would appear PFN convinced Ruby that a handicapper of his had stones of improvement in him and Ruby deserted BB. Its no wonder Ruby left him.

just about definition of better - who was better gazza or p nev - p nev would win on nearly every tangible measure of success - but for me gazza was better

Yes I do understand that MS but I'm saying if PC had been as single minded in his career as the other two he could have been regarded as the best. Gazza was obviously more talented but had a Timeform sguiggle or 2

think timeform would have to have come up with a whole new category for gazza - a nipper reed on steroids - i agree that beacuse pc is pc it is up for debate debate whereas imo if he had the application of rw or ap there would be no debate

We often here people stating that the trainer knows more than us and that statement is usually used in the context of a put down to others questioning what race to run a horse in.

The question of which jockey is being entrusted with these precious commodities is the most fundamental aspect of the whole game, so with that in mind, if Mullins/Ricci and Co are happy to let Walsh ride, then so am I.

Carberry may be an idiot who wasted most of his talent, but he has more natural ability than any of his contemporaries imo.

Oh, and I backed Valseur Lido for the Gold Cup months ago. Had almost consigned the slips to the bin. Still don't see him threatening tbh.

20/1 now