Cheltenham Festival
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Connetable
Connetable
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I got on at 33/1 coral as he jumped the last. People are knocking the form based on Blanco being so close but that is what happens in that ground, like the crabs who ended up quite close to barter's hill (and thistlecrack to an extent). They're switched off in behind and save enough for an effort that is short-lived. When it went side on 2 out I was expecting Blanco to come and win but the difference is the better horses can go again or sustain their finish and it flatters the ones in behind.
rather than say how close Blanco got there's more substance to argue how consistent RB his past few races when he's had the likes of TNO in trouble by running like that. There's nothing to say he hasn't ran to mark, if not higher so easily feasible to say C has ran better than his mark which you would expect anyway after coming on for debut this season. bare in mind that mid 140 was next best bar peace and co last season and it's looks a certainty that the race this year is a whole lot weaker with nothing showing the type of form P&C had this time last year. I was really surprised by the 16s and 14s left afterwards. |
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Maybe I'm biased by my antepost vouchers but I'm a bit surprised the horse hasn't had more plaudits as well. And I can't believe he isn't favourite. Even taking the form literally and talking about what kind of mark he has run to, I think it's much more impressive that he's won and battled in that ground against battle hardened older horses on his second run here. Massive pluses for his chances in a Championship race at the Festival. Thought he was very athletic at his fences as well.
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I also thought he had blown it at the last which hasn't been mentioned. Could have been worth a few more lbs when he's assessed.
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It's quite unusual to see such disparity between the bookmakers as well isn't it. Still priced as low as 7/1 and as high as 14/1... Expected Corals to move in line a bit quicker than they have.
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conetables French form stacks up well he was beaten a sh-neck and 1 and a 1/2 lengths into 3rd by punch nantais and footpad giving the 2nd 5pound and footpad won the grade 1 in Ireland today , connectable probably has more scope than footpad having had less racing ,the mere fact that nicholls pitched him in against higher rated more expierirnced rivals speaks volumes to me he would know what he has got on his hands better than any of us . and hard to say to say peace and co has not run to near his best as he didn't pull like last time and had every chance . rayvin black loves sandown and he also looks to have run to somewhere close to his best ,throw in the fact that connectable should progress then it was a very good performance ....imo of course .
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Think they are as confused as I am Catch!!
It's a very muddling market and not helped by the Irish form going t!ts up today,and a lot of the preps being run on sh!t going. Strange goings on today. If we get decent ground in the TRiumph it could all look so different. |
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Yes couldn't agree more mate. One of about 20 could win! Feel a bit sorry for those who have loaded up on IG at 3/1 and less.
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Well he could still win of course,and his performance last time is for me the most impressive,although I was really taken with Sceau Royal last time.
But yes,he's now a lot bigger than 3. |
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I cant see him as a 10/1 shot on todays form. I dont think he'd have been in the first 3 in the irish race today thats for sure! The only thing going for him i can think is that Nicholls said he would need it badly 2 weeks ago, so maybe he can improve plenty before march.
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It was a good run, don't get me wrong, but I'm in the cautious camp at the minute.
Some have highlighted that they think he was pitched in today that Paul Nicholls sees him as a really good one. I'd take the opposite view, where if he thought he was a really good one, why not wait until the Adonis, which is a proper Triumph prep, like he did with Zarkandar? In his Betfair column, it sounded like it was more hope than expectation. "I gave him an entry in this as I sensed there would be only a handful of runners.....We might be flying too high but he is fresh and well so why not have a go as the other three all have questions to answer?" Rayvin Black is a decent yardstick, and nothing to suggest he didn't run his race, but he did have a very hard race against TNO ina bog in Haydock two weeks ago, and it was his fourth run since mid/late December. Not crabbing Connetable at all, and well done to those on him, but I think the likeliest Triumph winner was probably in Ireland today, or was in the Triumph trial last week. |
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"Not crabbing Connetable at all, and well done to those on him, but I think the likeliest Triumph winner was probably in Ireland today, or was in the Triumph trial last week."
I hope no one has forgotten Leoncavallo - he's being rested for the a race later this month after a fall before the Triumph at Cheltenham. |
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paul nicholls said conetable will go straight to the triumph ,some bookmakers had priced him up for the champion hurdle but nicholls ruled him out of that and said he will be in staying races next year ,he will be always workmanlike as he is not a flashy traveller , he belives he has the profile of a triumph winner on breeding and was bhoyed by the performance of footpad who finished in front of him receiving weight and fixe le kap who was 3 lengths back in 4th .from racing post .
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Nice bit form boosting
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certainly did the form no harm and Nichols starting to get into top gear at the right time !
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I wouldn't get too carried away. Rayvin Black seems much more at home in a slog like he got today. It probably wasn't quite soft enough for him at Sandown. And Kayf Blanco was giving Connetable 10lbs for a 4 length beating. It's looking a very tough race to figure out though, so he'd certainly have a chance.
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Sam is booked to ride, has to be a good sign after all the talk by PN which is his best juvenile.
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clearly NS was always riding Zubayr
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Unless they just decided that he rode him last time and Schofield rode Zubayr so just stick with the same arrangements?
Hope you are right and he had the choice though! |
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Sam had the choice of the other 3
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Ok cheers
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Sod it, had a few more bob on at 12's!
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