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Roger The Butler
28 Jan 16 22:48
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Aug 02
| Topic/replies: 3,511 | Blogger: Roger The Butler's blog
Douvan, Faugheen, Annie Power (Mares) and Vautour (Gold Cup) to win £100,000

or

Min, Douvan, No More Heroes and Un De Sceaux to win £150,000
Pause Switch to Standard View Which of these two accumulators would...
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Report HaylingBilly January 28, 2016 10:52 PM GMT
For me definitely Douvan, Faugheen, Annie Power (Mares) and Vautour (Gold Cup) to win £100,000
Report slowerthanjohn January 28, 2016 10:53 PM GMT
The second one, first of all I'm greedy, Annie Power not 100% to run in the mares or Vautour in the GC. NMH only has MOT to be beat, UDS only has SS to worry about and the other two only have to worry about foot and mouth.
Report duffy January 28, 2016 11:54 PM GMT
2nd one for me too, can't see vautour winning, but NMH might....even though I don't fancy himTongue Out
Report timtin January 29, 2016 12:09 AM GMT
Winning chances based on my own assessment -at this time, not on their odds:

Faugheen 70%
Annie Power 60%
Un De Sceaux 45%
Douvan 35%
No More Heroes 30%
Vautour GC 20%
Min 10%


Each of the 2 4folds has a weak link, but I'll pick the first one as Vautour even at 20% has proven he has the class to mix it in the staying division but Min hasn't proven a thing.
Report duffy January 29, 2016 12:18 AM GMT
you make min a 10/1 shotGrin
Report timtin January 29, 2016 12:50 AM GMT
yes actually, course, adversaries, pulled too much LTO mid-race, unknowns unknowns. He should be 4/1 5/1 based on Mullins factor but not shorter than that especially as he won't race again before the festival so I think he'll drift on the day into 2/1 5/2.
Report DECALEC January 29, 2016 2:46 AM GMT
is he defo not running b4 festival
Report timtin January 29, 2016 2:52 AM GMT
Mullins said "he probably won't run before festival"... but you never know with him
Report DECALEC January 29, 2016 2:57 AM GMT
have you no bed to go to
Report timtin January 29, 2016 4:37 AM GMT
no sleep until the fez lol, apparently not the only one Laugh
Report DECALEC January 29, 2016 6:45 AM GMT
AH BUT I'M AT WORKPlain
Report buddeliea January 29, 2016 7:25 AM GMT
No brainier for me
1st one may have 2 non runners.
2nd one has 4 definite intended runners.
Report Desmond Orchard January 29, 2016 2:52 PM GMT
Bud is correct.
However, if you knew they were all lining up, it would be the first one.
I don't make Min a 9/1 shot, but he's definitely the weakest link in that chain and by some margin.
Report miltons sophie January 29, 2016 4:01 PM GMT
i take the nr aspect - despite that i would still take option 1 and what would swing it for me is the likelihood of getting to the last leg for that kind of money - cause thats when the real buzz would kick and i would look at option 1 and think if these run im getting to the last leg - i dont feel that way with option 2
Report gutfeeling January 29, 2016 4:04 PM GMT
You trying to sell off those mug punts you had whilst drunk Roger Grin
Report duffy January 29, 2016 4:17 PM GMT
Yeh but if it all goes t1ts up with option 2 you've still got more than a day left to chase.Silly
Report miltons sophie January 29, 2016 4:30 PM GMT
yeh but im a foolish ideallist living in a dream world remember and we are always looking onthe bright side
Report buddeliea January 29, 2016 5:53 PM GMT
If they all run I think 3 would win in each bet,and personally I think Min is more likely to win Supreme than Vautour Gold Cup.

Plus 2nd bet is more money
Laugh
Report gutfeeling January 29, 2016 8:37 PM GMT
But of course Miltons, I'm just pulling RTB's chain on the subject of ante post betting as we've discussed it previously.

FWIW I like the 2nd bet more but I have my reservations about Min.
Report Roger The Butler January 29, 2016 10:09 PM GMT
Not pulling my chain Gutfeeling, I am on both! Both done completely sober and of sane mind though, but I'm not massively happy with either of them. If I can get Min over the line in the 2nd one then that one becomes pretty interesting.
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