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Cheltenham Festival

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Roger The Butler
28 Jan 16 22:48
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Date Joined: 20 Aug 02
| Topic/replies: 3,511 | Blogger: Roger The Butler's blog
Douvan, Faugheen, Annie Power (Mares) and Vautour (Gold Cup) to win £100,000

or

Min, Douvan, No More Heroes and Un De Sceaux to win £150,000

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Replies: 20
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 28 Jan 16 22:52
For me definitely Douvan, Faugheen, Annie Power (Mares) and Vautour (Gold Cup) to win £100,000
By:
slowerthanjohn
When: 28 Jan 16 22:53
The second one, first of all I'm greedy, Annie Power not 100% to run in the mares or Vautour in the GC. NMH only has MOT to be beat, UDS only has SS to worry about and the other two only have to worry about foot and mouth.
By:
duffy
When: 28 Jan 16 23:54
2nd one for me too, can't see vautour winning, but NMH might....even though I don't fancy himTongue Out
By:
timtin
When: 29 Jan 16 00:09
Winning chances based on my own assessment -at this time, not on their odds:

Faugheen 70%
Annie Power 60%
Un De Sceaux 45%
Douvan 35%
No More Heroes 30%
Vautour GC 20%
Min 10%


Each of the 2 4folds has a weak link, but I'll pick the first one as Vautour even at 20% has proven he has the class to mix it in the staying division but Min hasn't proven a thing.
By:
duffy
When: 29 Jan 16 00:18
you make min a 10/1 shotGrin
By:
timtin
When: 29 Jan 16 00:50
yes actually, course, adversaries, pulled too much LTO mid-race, unknowns unknowns. He should be 4/1 5/1 based on Mullins factor but not shorter than that especially as he won't race again before the festival so I think he'll drift on the day into 2/1 5/2.
By:
DECALEC
When: 29 Jan 16 02:46
is he defo not running b4 festival
By:
timtin
When: 29 Jan 16 02:52
Mullins said "he probably won't run before festival"... but you never know with him
By:
DECALEC
When: 29 Jan 16 02:57
have you no bed to go to
By:
timtin
When: 29 Jan 16 04:37
no sleep until the fez lol, apparently not the only one Laugh
By:
DECALEC
When: 29 Jan 16 06:45
AH BUT I'M AT WORKPlain
By:
buddeliea
When: 29 Jan 16 07:25
No brainier for me
1st one may have 2 non runners.
2nd one has 4 definite intended runners.
By:
Desmond Orchard
When: 29 Jan 16 14:52
Bud is correct.
However, if you knew they were all lining up, it would be the first one.
I don't make Min a 9/1 shot, but he's definitely the weakest link in that chain and by some margin.
By:
miltons sophie
When: 29 Jan 16 16:01
i take the nr aspect - despite that i would still take option 1 and what would swing it for me is the likelihood of getting to the last leg for that kind of money - cause thats when the real buzz would kick and i would look at option 1 and think if these run im getting to the last leg - i dont feel that way with option 2
By:
gutfeeling
When: 29 Jan 16 16:04
You trying to sell off those mug punts you had whilst drunk Roger Grin
By:
duffy
When: 29 Jan 16 16:17
Yeh but if it all goes t1ts up with option 2 you've still got more than a day left to chase.Silly
By:
miltons sophie
When: 29 Jan 16 16:30
yeh but im a foolish ideallist living in a dream world remember and we are always looking onthe bright side
By:
buddeliea
When: 29 Jan 16 17:53
If they all run I think 3 would win in each bet,and personally I think Min is more likely to win Supreme than Vautour Gold Cup.

Plus 2nd bet is more money
Laugh
By:
gutfeeling
When: 29 Jan 16 20:37
But of course Miltons, I'm just pulling RTB's chain on the subject of ante post betting as we've discussed it previously.

FWIW I like the 2nd bet more but I have my reservations about Min.
By:
Roger The Butler
When: 29 Jan 16 22:09
Not pulling my chain Gutfeeling, I am on both! Both done completely sober and of sane mind though, but I'm not massively happy with either of them. If I can get Min over the line in the 2nd one then that one becomes pretty interesting.
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