Vatour - if Rich Ricci is right

baNjackst - Lots of us have used our heads and determined the KG was inconclusive in showing us whether he stayed or not. This has been discussed ad nauseam in other threads. I suggest you check them out for reference if you haven't already.

As far as him being the next One Man, sure isn't hindsight wonderful. Imagine if they never tried One Man in the GC we would all be left wondering. I can't imagine how you felt when they ran him again in the most prestigious NH race in the world. You make things sound so black and white when they clearly aren't, especially in Vautour's case. No two horses are identical. GL

I agree with the sentiment of the above post - that people are assessing Vautour's chances with their hearts and not their heads.

Staying is all relative really. If Cue Card wasn't in the race, then the conclusion would be Vautour stayed. The reality is he was outstayed by a horse who himself was a suspect stayer in the eyes of many before the start of the season.

With that in mind, it's hard to see how Vautour can win when opposed by even stronger stayers - Don Cossack, Don Poli, Road To Riches and Djakadam over 2.5 furlongs further at Cheltenham. The chances must be very high given that at least one, if not more, will finish too strongly for him.

You're so right Gazo. So many horses are lauded to the sky yet you can look at their form and ask that question.
No question that Mullins has some brilliant performers but let's wait until they've beaten top class animals before proclaiming their greatness.
Not one performance from UDS or Vautour over fences has yet involved beating a top class opponent.
I have nothing against Vautour or Un Des Sceaux but if you ask the question "who is the best horse they have ever beaten?" the cupboard is, so far, bare in terms of formidable opponents. Partly as a result of Mullins' domination, partly his placing, and partly the opposition running scared, but they do seem to be able to glide through the Irish season with ease.
Even Douvan has beaten very little although, again, he may well do so in time.
The acid tests are to come (though Douvan and UDS don't seem to have a lot to beat at this stage).

I am of the complete opposite opinion. I think Vautour will stay and will be right there at the end of the Gold Cup. He will be fitter, lighter, going left handed, good/soft going and has been trained for the race. It's a game of opinions and my opinion is he will get the GC distance and be right there. Good luck to all.

and does cue card really stay,he looks like he does this season but his two runs before the king george he beat dynaste who's stable has been pretty much out of form all season and doesnt stay 3 miles in his dreams and silviniaco conti which looked good at the time but not so now with dynaste again in 3rd,could be vautour was outstayed by a non stayer

This... Vautour was in front 10m after the line....is total straw clutching by Ricci and Ruby.
To try and cling on to something like that is nonsense. Beaten fare & square on the day, and to try and prove he stays based on after the line is laughable.

Hold on a minute, saying Vautour beat the 156 rated valseur lido in itself doesn't make him great, but saying he beat the 156 rated valseur lido by 15 lengths head in chest tells a different story.

He's not yet great but that's just a time thing IMO, at the end of his career we'll see where he stands. I just hope he doesn't get too messed about by connections too much, trying to turn him into a GC horse this year and next year the juggling of UDS/Douvan and Vautour.

A horse doesn't need to be a top class horse for an individual watching to be able to spot something special, vautour produced it in the JLT and Douvan produced that wow moment last week.

Theres a reason why connections want to run vautour in the Gold Cup cause he's the best horse in a stable full of superstars. Getting beaten a head in a KG makes him great with multipal graded horses either on the ground or tailed off behind. Vautour would win the Champion Chase with his head in his chest, he'd be winning last years and this years champion hurdle only he was a better and safer jumper than Faugheen. Now for anyone who watches and talks horse racing to suggest he's not Great I suggest you take up golf or some other past
time.

doesn't need to have beaten a top class horse I should have said.

you can see a stunning performance in a seller doesnt mean its a great horse,you need to do it against the best to be classed as a great and as yet he has been in one top race and got beat

In 35 years of watching horse racing I've yet to witness a stunning performance in a seller.

Gazo, take my word for it, both Vautour and Douvan are great horses.

take mullins word for it.

probally but as yet he has took on two top horses and got beat by one and quite possibly would have got beat by the other,still a bit to prove before he can be claimed a great

There might be a chance before Cheltenham to put the $64k question of whether Vautour will stay the CGC trip or not is if WPM/RR run him in the Irish Gold Cup against RTR and possibly DP; if Vautour runs I'm almost 100% certain Gigginstown will run DP as well even if WPM says not a good idea!

Vautour is a very good horse up to 20f but I do not put Vautour in the same bracket as Wayward Lad, Boroughhill Lad or Forgive 'N' Forget.

Why don't you wait until he shows what he can do first! He's been beaten a neck in a KG in his only run over 3m, and is being written off already. Crazy stuff to my eyes.

One question if Vautour runs in the GC would RW ride? I'd be shocked if he got off for Djakadam and no offence but I wouldn't be over keen with P.Townend as a replacement.

Vaotour is a superb horse but I just picture standing at the Festival last year watching Coneygree beat them in a brutal, attritional last mile from the front and I ask myself "Is that a race that would suit Vaotour?" The answer would seem to me to be "no."

If Vautour runs, Ruby will ride barring injury. That's the only certain thing about this Gold Cup. Townend is really good anyway.

We'll see,....only time will tell, nonetheless I'd like to see Vautour runs in the CGC. Let's hope Vautour runs in the Irish Gold Cup prior.

Two of Vautours worst perfomances were with Townend on, he's decent but I don't think he's come on as well as expected.

Anyone that thinks a horse that was outstayed over 3 miles at Kempton by Cue Card has an earthly chance of winning a decent Gold Cup against thorough stayers should give up the game.

No it just means you were wrong in one race.

If that's the standard of their race reading,they're getting destroyed.

He will run (win) in the Ryanair but no chance he stays well enough to win a decent gold cup.

To get outstayed over 3 miles at Kempton by Cue Card to beating Don Pol, Djackadam, Don Cossack,Road to Riches over 3m 2f up the hill at Cheltenham.

Combine that with the speed he has shown in the supreme and the JLT, no chance of winning a good Gold Cup.

If DJakadam is impressive this weekend,don't be surprised if Vautour does not run in the Gold Cup.
Ruby will want to ride both horses,and connections will want to win two races.
Plus they know DJakadam is a Gold Cup horse and they know Vautour is bloody good at the Ryanair distance.
Guess the crunch would be if they think Vautour has a better chance in a Gold Cup than DJakadam.
IF not I don't think they would run Vautour,would be pretty pointless when they can win another race with him...as is their normal strategy.

"Vautour will come on for the King George," Ricci added. "He was 20 kilos too heavy there. He's got 10-15 more to lose."

In that case he'll still be 5-10 kilos too heavy on Gold Cup day then, won't he? Although we know maths ain't Ricci's strong point because he was an investment banker.

It's not particularly meaningful information unless we know Vautour's optimum weight (likely at the Festival last year plus x for maturity) plus his racing weight in all his other races and the racing weights of his rivals on Gold Cup day and in all their other races.

It surprises me that the racing journalists don't replay some of Ricci's comments to Mullins just to see what his reaction is.
Ricci's PR is great but the most interesting piece of information he divulged to Lydia Hislop at the weekend was that he is chairman of Betbright!

Anyway, although the visual impression (to me at least) on King George day was that Vautour was a short runner, his pedigree suggests he has every chance of staying - personally think the King George form is stronger than anything else on offer and, although I've no bet in the race yet, I'd be keen to have both Vautour and Cue Card onside on the day.

The fact is - if he runs, Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins will have apparently read the race differently to you, dj876. Paul Nicholls nominated Vautour as the Mullins horse that he would most like to have in his yard - and immediately said he would run him in the Gold Cup because (in his opinion) 'it's the right race.' Fair enough if that's your opinion - no need to ridicule what others think.

I think he's the most talented horse in the race but there is the question to prove over stamina. The thing that's in my thinking is a lot of folk don't think he stays 3 miles but he finished about 17 lengths in front of the Hennessy winner on going that surely favoured Smad Place more than Vautour.

It's not 3 miles, it's over 3 miles 2 furlongs with a stiff finish versus three miles on a flat track.

He's in a different league to a handicapper like Smad Place and would always finish in front of him.

There are degrees of staying a trip, many placed horses in Gold Cups didn't truly stay the trip. Florida Pearl wasn't suited to the Gold Cup but his class allowed him to be in the mix (was able to win over 3 miles at Kempton though and elsewhere)

Look at the thorough stayers in this years Gold Cup, you would have to thrive on the challenge not just maybe get home.

In the last 3 furlongs will it be class that is the deciding factor or the deepest reserves of stamina? Only one answer to that for me and this is an above average renewal, you have proven classy stayers.

ReaseHeath   
28 Jan 16 21:08 
"Vautour will come on for the King George," Ricci added. "He was 20 kilos too heavy there. He's got 10-15 more to lose."

In that case he'll still be 5-10 kilos too heavy on Gold Cup day then, won't he? Although we know maths ain't Ricci's strong point because he was an investment banker.

Think Ricci's maths is better than your comprehension. What that means is that he has already lost 5-10 kilos since the King George, so is already part of the way to his ideal weight.

Yeah, probably. Do you know what his ideal weight is? Thought not.

Not the point. I neither know nor care. But I do know that if he says that he was 20kg too heavy then and is still 10-15kg too heavy now, it means he has probably lost a bit in the interim.

He'd probably lose 5-10kg during the race and travelling back would n't he?

Yes quite feasibly I expect. Still means he's going the right way in terms of being where they want him to be for Cheltenham and would expect him to be spot on what they want him to be on 18th March.

There is almost 200K for winning the Ryanair. I wonder if this will influence Mullins decision on where Vautour runs? A win in the Ryanair would go a long way in his pursuit of the trainers title.

Good point but think WM would rather win the GC than the trainers title.

dj876

Agree 100% with all that you put above, good post that.

How people can be categorical based on that one race at Kempton is beyond me. If Ricci is right and there are 20kgs to come off that is a significant amount of weight. He's better in the spring. He's proven at Cheltenham. Ruby would almost certainly not look to take it up as early as he did at Kempton. He's better left handed. That's an awful lot stacking up against an extra two furlongs. The jury remains out for me and if I've backed anything else on the day it would concern me to see Vautour coming down the hill with the leaders.

I don't know for sure, no-one does, but on what I've seen I have an opinion that he won't stay the trip.

There are a lot of ifs and buts in Vautour's defence, you don't hear too much of the if DC had stood up argument, I think the general consensus is that he'd have won and as the race had panned out he'd have done it running away from the other two. I think with that visual in peoples minds there would be less of a pro Vautour GC push going on.

@duffy no offence but what you about DC and @dj are saying, we've been discussing for a long time now. Nothing new but rehashed arguments. The only thing deciding if Vautour goes GC or not is the type of performance Djak puts tomorrow because it'll give Ruby a clear choice and V will be sent Ryanair. If not then Mullins will drop a near certain Festival win, has he ever been that type of dreamer? Out of character I'd say so unless Djak puts up a stinker things will be clear.

Also no offence to RR, but he's talking non-sense about 10-20 15 kilos that his horses still have to lose. I can believe him when he says a horse has lost x weight from that time but he should be ignored when he says that horse will lose another 500 grams or 100 kilos. Funny thing with Mullins the other day: "everybody keeps telling me that my horses improve come March" Well some of his horses do but most are already fit by end of December and they only need constant work to maintain it which they're getting by default in a training facility.

It's going to be re-hashed over and over again by anyone and everyone for another 6/7 weeks too

He thinks Djakadam has more chance than Vautour in the Gold Cup,then V goes in the Ryanair.
It's as simple as that imo.
If they are unsure,it's possible they may stick both in the GC,but that does go against what they normally do.

He is strong in the market, and has moved in a point this week.
It will be interesting to see how Djakadam gets on against a fully fit Many Clouds tomorrow.
I backed Djakadam last year, he is a good horse, but I believe Vautour is on another level.
Ricci must be be thinking that if Djakadam lines up alone, he goes there with a good chance, he may win, he may not.
If Vautour lines up. fully fit, the correct weight, (if he stays), he will win, no if's or buts.
Prize money doesn't mean anything to Ricci, so he won't be swayed by an easy Ryanair victory.
Unfortunately the Ryanair is a bit like the Europa League is to football, teams fall into it by default, and everyone would rather be in the Champions League.

Prize money may not mean anything to RR, but Cheltenham winners, of any description, mean everything.

Ricci is not going to be short of winners.
The question is, would he a swap nailed on Ryan Air for a Gold Cup run with huge possibilities.
If Vautour runs in the Gold Cup, with Ruby on board, what price would he go off ?
My guess, 3/1 maybe 5/2.

Heard a bookie say the other day they think he would go off about 5/2 and see they are going to run him again before the festival now and it's still the gold cup they are going for! He would need to run a shocker for that to change and looks like all go for gold.

It's getting a bit boring now, but I can't for the life of me understand why on earth anyone would want Vautour to run in the Ryanair, well unless you've backed him in it I suppose.

We've got enough short price Mullins horses as it is. We don't want to ruin yet another grade one. From both a racing and punting perspective it will be a poorer festival for it, it'll kill the Ryanair as a betting heat, makes it generally an uninteresting race to watch as we pretty much know what he'd do to a Ryanair field and if I look at another without the favourite market I might scream. Also, we'll lose a fair chunk of quality and intrigue from the Gold Cup. A few people have stated that if Vautour doesn't run in the Gold Cup it will be a poorer one for it which I totally agree with, and we've already lost Coneygree. People have moaned about Mullins not sticking his big guns up against each other, yet the one time he may well do that in Vautour vs Djakadam we've still got people questioning it.

We obviously don't know Vautour will stay the trip. But no-one knows he won't either, they can only have a hunch he won't. The thing is if he does manage to stay he has all the other characteristics that could send him down as a great.

Only thing that sends him for the Ryanair is soft ground IMO. I think what Djakadam does tommorow plays absolutely no bearing on where Vautour runs. Djakadam has a good chance in the Gold Cup but if it came up good ground I'd be starting to get worried for him. No harm having a horse in there who's proven on good and one who's proven on soft. Djakadam may go ok on better going but that's as big a question mark at this stage as asking will Vautour get the trip, they're both unproven. At least we know Vautour excels on the firmer spring ground, we won't until race day with Djakadam.

rich richi says  vautour may  well have another run before chelt either denman chase at newbury ,red mills at gowran ,also in irish hennesy but that is a very tough race .

red mills is only 2.4 miles irish Hennessey not ideal ,so denman chase looks the one imo

I reckon it should all depend on opposition for where he has a prep, if it's a weak looking Denman Chase I'd send him there, if he might bump into a good one head to Gowran for the Red Mills. There's pros and cons to both those preps, the Denman you're likely to get better ground and a week extra to prepare for Cheltenham, the Red Mills you have a week less and likely softer ground but a shorter trip and don't have to travel over the water. Probably use the Denman as first choice and the Red Mills as a back up.

The Irish Hennessy wont happen, you don't want him bumping into Don Poli or Road to Riches over 3 miles in testing ground for a prep. They'll love the mud and Vautour won't so there's no chance he goes there.

Vautour definitely needs a prep though. I couldn't have him going fresh from Kempton to Cheltenham, he's the sort who can pull early on. He did that at the start in the JLT last year even with a prep. A prep isn't about finding out if he gets 3 miles, it's about keeping him on his toes whilst mooting any tendency to be keen, but also striking the balance of not over exerting him. If he's going to win the Gold Cup he needs to be prepped to perfection as it will take some winning.

yeah denman looks the one especially as the red mills is right handed and over 2.4 miles

rr also said he takes a lot of work and another race will do him the world of good

Ricci quote on RP web site,

“I think Vautour on his day is something very special.”

Sounds like a man who can't wait to see him in the premier race at the festival, (I expect that the majority of NH racing fans feel the same).

satrus - agree with the main thrusts of your posts - though cant have RTR loving the mud - not sure we are talking about the same horse - would have gone very close to winning last year if rain hadnt come imo.

Maybe I was talking rubbish on RTR. To be honest I think the only times I've ever seen him run was last year's Cheltenham and Punchestown gold cups, and maybe I wrongly assumed he loved the mud, although that was down to him running a very brave race in the gold cup on soft. Could well have won it if it was good then!


Forgot Gowran was right handed. It's likely to be a weak field though and he'd still hack up, but Denman Chase probably first choice.

O/T

Is anyone else's racing channels running ok? The link seem not to be working. TIA.

not important - thought your 10.31 post was excellent

Yes, their only decision is whether he stays or not, they've been telling us he will, in that case he's a runner, he's the best horse in training and if he stays properly then he will win, Djakadam shouldn't come into it, because if he stays Djak can't beat him .

If he doesn't run then it is either bad ground or they actually don't think he'll stay regardless of what they've been saying....or, they actually don't think he's as good as many of us think he is (unlikely).

So let's see if they go through with it, if they think he stays, he runs.

Duffy - correct me if i am wrong - i think you are a big fan of V and i know what you thought of his jlt run - he is very special as far as you are concerened - i get your opinion re ryanair - but i sense that your admiration for the horse is making you nervous for the horses future and that is fuelling your opinion perhaps a little than a rational interpretation of the KG running (i am not saying your interpretation is not rational - i am saying if it were another horse then maybe you'd be a little more on the fence and you'd be a little bit more relaxed about him running to find out) My question to you would be if you knew that his future would not be impacted by running in the GC would you then support him running?

It's funny watching all the naysayers regurgitating the same 2 horses, as examples from decades gone past, as if to reinforce their opinion that Vautour doesn't stay. I can remember one horse that never won over 3m, got beaten in a few KG's, was lambasted by the pundits as a non-stayer, before he went on to win a decent GC i.e. Imperial Commander. And just like Vautour he had issues with fitness. 


dj876 - Fair enough if that's your opinion - no need to ridicule what others think.

Well said. TY

miltons

Yes, regardless of me thinking that he won't stay, I would like to see him run in the GC just to see if he does, simply because, if, as many of us think he is a superstar in the making, we have to find out for sure otherwise we're in danger of letting slip by something that doesn't come along very very often.

I think that you could also go as far to say that even if ultimately connections have grave doubts they still should run him, you've got to find out for sure...he's too good not to.

Anyway, he won't stay.

this forum just tells me how little i know about racing as most seem so adamant about so many things that i am unsure about

Excellent point Maelduin, regarding Imperial Commander - surely he would be found out against those two tried and tested stayers Kauto & Denman...... "Oh, but he had proven he stayed when getting narrowly beaten by Kauto in the Betfair"........ Hmmm, beaten a boll0ck hair by the best 3 mile chaser in the land, who does that sound like?

the gold cup podcast on the racing post site is well worth a listen, 30 mins of chaton the gold cup  with tom segal and a few others ,interesting views !

They can all take a tumble but after djakadam coming down today and with vautours run in the king George being boosted by the 4th smad winning easy il now be amazed if vautour isn't a stone cold cert to go for it now! On a side note I bet king is kicking himself for not making more use of smad in the king geo!

I wouldn't link smad place's two runs, Kempton would have been all too quick for him, totally different today and was out in front....it's been a sobering day so far for Mullins.

Cue more blue on oddschecker for Vautour after Djakadam's mishap. If Mullins/Walsh were hoping that Djakadam would win emphatically so that they could re-route Vautour to the Ryaniar they were left disappointed and scratching their heads.  I take the point that Smad Place was not trained for the KG but he was still well beaten which doesn't do any harm to the form of the race. It merely confirms that the race is between the 6 big protaganists (DC, CC, DP & RTR, Vautour & SP). GC is definitely the most intriguing race of the festival by a long shot.

King George form looking good now. Cue Card has come good this season, and proved himself a high class chaser.
The clues are all falling into place.

I really don't think their intention is to re-route Vautour to the Ryanair.

How is the King George form looking good now.
Two Grade 2 horses came 1st and 2nd after the only grade 1 horse fell.

In reality whatever happened with Djak today should have had no bearing on Vautour, if they think he'll stay he'll have to run because staying means winning IMO and it should mean that to them also, if he doesn't run it will mean that they have big big doubts.

very well said duffy.
The move in price on vautour is ridiculous. A fall is a fall, doesn't suggest a potential non stayer is now going to stay ?!?!

It's 2 falls at the same track.

Two fancied runners falling at the big races ie Don Cossack and Djakadam, principal runners nd market leaders in the CGC; however, one must not read too much in the KG form as I do not personally see the winner today taking a hand in the forthcoming CGC, at best a place.

A very good performance by Many Clouds that should auger well for the Grand National backers.

Mullins has a dilemma on his hands now because presumably we will see Vautour and Djakadam before the Festival. Question is where? Could Djakadam run in the Irish Gold Cup next weekend? It wouldn't exactly be an ideal prep to go to Cheltenham off the back of a fall and it was long way out.

If not then one to Gowran Park for the Red Mills Chase (2m 4f) and one to Newbury for the Denman Chase (3m)?

Yep, your last sentence makes sense to me.
Reckon Djakadam  at Gowran  Vautour at Newbury.

Ruby would then have to choose between staying at home or going to Newbury. I think there's a chance Djakadam may run next week but we'll see.

Now going 2/5 he runs in the gold cup! From 2/1 last weekend lol

If they approach it logically they could turn it into a virtue. Ruby to Newbury aboard Vautour giving them another look at 3 miles. Djakadam staying at home with Townsend riding. If Vautour goes well Ruby rides in the Gold Cup and Townsend has had a spin round in Djakadam's final race before the Gold Cup. If they aren't convinced by Vautour he goes Ryanair with Ruby riding both in their big races.

Job done.

If not then one to Gowran Park for the Red Mills Chase (2m 4f) and one to Newbury for the Denman Chase (3m)?

Sounds perfect. Can't see Djakadam out next week. GL.

I can't see either Vautour or Djak out again before the festival.

Looking at the Gold Cup market, the Denman Chase desperately needs Vautour (or Djakadam), difficult to see which other live contender is likely to turn up there - unless someone knows differently?

Connections of one or two of the novices might be tempted to have a go at Denman Chase otherwise - More Of That, Seeyouatmidnight - it was won by a novice last year not sure he turned out to be any good though.

Mullins knows more than me, but that would be a big mistake, Trigger.

Fully expect to see both out again. As others others have said, Vautour for the Denman, Djak to the Red Mills.

And yeah, Ruby's not getting off Vautour for anything.

Completely agree with EO... I think you've set this out perfectly.

Definitely agree that there ain't a doubt that ruby will be on vautour if it comes to it!

Djak not running before Cheltenham, thats from Mullins.
He may not make Cheltenham if stitches become infected.

All goes well he goes straight to the Gold Cup.
Let's hope they look after him well then.
Don't want any more withdrawals.

Has Mullins said he may not make Cheltenham if the stitches become infected or is that what you think, Cuthbert?

Ah just read the whole article and seen Mullins said that

Willie Mullins will consider letting Vautour line up in next Saturday's Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown.

When asked if it was a race against time, mullins repled yes, but providing nothing untoward happens ie stitches become infected, then it will be ok....without hitches the time allowed will be fine.

If Vautour lines up with DonPoli and RTR,that will be fascinating to watch.
Reckon you will find out how well he stays three miles!!

Would be some race but I think he will give it  swerve with it being the chance of a quite hard race. But you never know with mullins look at him with artic fire at Xmas so he might just see on Saturday morning the ground ain't to bad and let him have a go!

Mullins says earlier on today he is sure vautour is a gold cup horse. I have thought all along the way they have spoken that that's where he is going! Racing post app in the news tab for anyone who is interested under the headline vroom vroom might go Ryanair! Bit surprised to see them mention gold cup a possible for valsour lido! I know gigginstown will throw everything at winning the gold cup but thought the 2 dons and roads to riches would have done them and sent lido to there own race as you would imagine they would want least 1 runner in the race they sponsor! Surly they won't have lido in the gold cup over roads to riches? And send riches Ryanair??!

Why run VVM in a hurdle race if Ryanair is a possibility? Has it come about because of Djakadam over the weekend? By the way, I'd give up horse racing if Valseur Lido ends up in the CGC if DC, DP and RTR run; if so, an ulterior motive springs to my mind I'm afraid.

They will if they want a class horse in the Ryanair and the way that race is shaping RTR destroys whoever runs in it.

Maybe Giggis will only run Sir Don and Poli in the GC.
DC is their number one and a smaller field enhances his chances,i have heard a few experts say this is going to be a smallish field of around 10 or so.

If so, the number one aim of connections is still to win as many races at the Festival as possible even if it means 'messing about' with the horse or racegoers/punters now that the WH has a near cast iron 'fav'.

The Ryanair without Vautour but with RTR does not make it easy for VVM either - I'd side with RTR any time, if so.