Cheltenham Festival
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Vatour - if Rich Ricci is right
Vatour - if Rich Ricci is right
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Replies: 121
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One question if Vautour runs in the GC would RW ride? I'd be shocked if he got off for Djakadam and no offence but I wouldn't be over keen with P.Townend as a replacement.
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Vaotour is a superb horse but I just picture standing at the Festival last year watching Coneygree beat them in a brutal, attritional last mile from the front and I ask myself "Is that a race that would suit Vaotour?" The answer would seem to me to be "no."
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If Vautour runs, Ruby will ride barring injury. That's the only certain thing about this Gold Cup. Townend is really good anyway.
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We'll see,....only time will tell, nonetheless I'd like to see Vautour runs in the CGC. Let's hope Vautour runs in the Irish Gold Cup prior.
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Two of Vautours worst perfomances were with Townend on, he's decent but I don't think he's come on as well as expected.
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Anyone that thinks a horse that was outstayed over 3 miles at Kempton by Cue Card has an earthly chance of winning a decent Gold Cup against thorough stayers should give up the game.
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No it just means you were wrong in one race.
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If that's the standard of their race reading,they're getting destroyed.
He will run (win) in the Ryanair but no chance he stays well enough to win a decent gold cup. To get outstayed over 3 miles at Kempton by Cue Card to beating Don Pol, Djackadam, Don Cossack,Road to Riches over 3m 2f up the hill at Cheltenham. Combine that with the speed he has shown in the supreme and the JLT, no chance of winning a good Gold Cup. |
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If DJakadam is impressive this weekend,don't be surprised if Vautour does not run in the Gold Cup.
Ruby will want to ride both horses,and connections will want to win two races. Plus they know DJakadam is a Gold Cup horse and they know Vautour is bloody good at the Ryanair distance. Guess the crunch would be if they think Vautour has a better chance in a Gold Cup than DJakadam. IF not I don't think they would run Vautour,would be pretty pointless when they can win another race with him...as is their normal strategy. |
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"Vautour will come on for the King George," Ricci added. "He was 20 kilos too heavy there. He's got 10-15 more to lose."
In that case he'll still be 5-10 kilos too heavy on Gold Cup day then, won't he? Although we know maths ain't Ricci's strong point because he was an investment banker. It's not particularly meaningful information unless we know Vautour's optimum weight (likely at the Festival last year plus x for maturity) plus his racing weight in all his other races and the racing weights of his rivals on Gold Cup day and in all their other races. It surprises me that the racing journalists don't replay some of Ricci's comments to Mullins just to see what his reaction is. Ricci's PR is great but the most interesting piece of information he divulged to Lydia Hislop at the weekend was that he is chairman of Betbright! Anyway, although the visual impression (to me at least) on King George day was that Vautour was a short runner, his pedigree suggests he has every chance of staying - personally think the King George form is stronger than anything else on offer and, although I've no bet in the race yet, I'd be keen to have both Vautour and Cue Card onside on the day. |
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The fact is - if he runs, Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins will have apparently read the race differently to you, dj876. Paul Nicholls nominated Vautour as the Mullins horse that he would most like to have in his yard - and immediately said he would run him in the Gold Cup because (in his opinion) 'it's the right race.' Fair enough if that's your opinion - no need to ridicule what others think.
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I think he's the most talented horse in the race but there is the question to prove over stamina. The thing that's in my thinking is a lot of folk don't think he stays 3 miles but he finished about 17 lengths in front of the Hennessy winner on going that surely favoured Smad Place more than Vautour.
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It's not 3 miles, it's over 3 miles 2 furlongs with a stiff finish versus three miles on a flat track.
He's in a different league to a handicapper like Smad Place and would always finish in front of him. There are degrees of staying a trip, many placed horses in Gold Cups didn't truly stay the trip. Florida Pearl wasn't suited to the Gold Cup but his class allowed him to be in the mix (was able to win over 3 miles at Kempton though and elsewhere) Look at the thorough stayers in this years Gold Cup, you would have to thrive on the challenge not just maybe get home. In the last 3 furlongs will it be class that is the deciding factor or the deepest reserves of stamina? Only one answer to that for me and this is an above average renewal, you have proven classy stayers. |
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ReaseHeath
28 Jan 16 21:08 "Vautour will come on for the King George," Ricci added. "He was 20 kilos too heavy there. He's got 10-15 more to lose." In that case he'll still be 5-10 kilos too heavy on Gold Cup day then, won't he? Although we know maths ain't Ricci's strong point because he was an investment banker. Think Ricci's maths is better than your comprehension. What that means is that he has already lost 5-10 kilos since the King George, so is already part of the way to his ideal weight. |
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Yeah, probably. Do you know what his ideal weight is? Thought not.
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Not the point. I neither know nor care. But I do know that if he says that he was 20kg too heavy then and is still 10-15kg too heavy now, it means he has probably lost a bit in the interim.
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He'd probably lose 5-10kg during the race and travelling back would n't he?
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Yes quite feasibly I expect. Still means he's going the right way in terms of being where they want him to be for Cheltenham and would expect him to be spot on what they want him to be on 18th March.
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There is almost 200K for winning the Ryanair. I wonder if this will influence Mullins decision on where Vautour runs? A win in the Ryanair would go a long way in his pursuit of the trainers title.
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Good point but think WM would rather win the GC than the trainers title.
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dj876
Agree 100% with all that you put above, good post that. |
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How people can be categorical based on that one race at Kempton is beyond me. If Ricci is right and there are 20kgs to come off that is a significant amount of weight. He's better in the spring. He's proven at Cheltenham. Ruby would almost certainly not look to take it up as early as he did at Kempton. He's better left handed. That's an awful lot stacking up against an extra two furlongs. The jury remains out for me and if I've backed anything else on the day it would concern me to see Vautour coming down the hill with the leaders.
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I don't know for sure, no-one does, but on what I've seen I have an opinion that he won't stay the trip.
There are a lot of ifs and buts in Vautour's defence, you don't hear too much of the if DC had stood up argument, I think the general consensus is that he'd have won and as the race had panned out he'd have done it running away from the other two. I think with that visual in peoples minds there would be less of a pro Vautour GC push going on. |
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@duffy no offence but what you about DC and @dj are saying, we've been discussing for a long time now. Nothing new but rehashed arguments. The only thing deciding if Vautour goes GC or not is the type of performance Djak puts tomorrow because it'll give Ruby a clear choice and V will be sent Ryanair. If not then Mullins will drop a near certain Festival win, has he ever been that type of dreamer? Out of character I'd say so unless Djak puts up a stinker things will be clear.
Also no offence to RR, but he's talking non-sense about 10-20 15 kilos that his horses still have to lose. I can believe him when he says a horse has lost x weight from that time but he should be ignored when he says that horse will lose another 500 grams or 100 kilos. Funny thing with Mullins the other day: "everybody keeps telling me that my horses improve come March" Well some of his horses do but most are already fit by end of December and they only need constant work to maintain it which they're getting by default in a training facility. |
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It's going to be re-hashed over and over again by anyone and everyone for another 6/7 weeks too
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He thinks Djakadam has more chance than Vautour in the Gold Cup,then V goes in the Ryanair.
It's as simple as that imo. If they are unsure,it's possible they may stick both in the GC,but that does go against what they normally do. |
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He is strong in the market, and has moved in a point this week.
It will be interesting to see how Djakadam gets on against a fully fit Many Clouds tomorrow. I backed Djakadam last year, he is a good horse, but I believe Vautour is on another level. Ricci must be be thinking that if Djakadam lines up alone, he goes there with a good chance, he may win, he may not. If Vautour lines up. fully fit, the correct weight, (if he stays), he will win, no if's or buts. Prize money doesn't mean anything to Ricci, so he won't be swayed by an easy Ryanair victory. Unfortunately the Ryanair is a bit like the Europa League is to football, teams fall into it by default, and everyone would rather be in the Champions League. |
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Prize money may not mean anything to RR, but Cheltenham winners, of any description, mean everything.
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Ricci is not going to be short of winners.
The question is, would he a swap nailed on Ryan Air for a Gold Cup run with huge possibilities. If Vautour runs in the Gold Cup, with Ruby on board, what price would he go off ? My guess, 3/1 maybe 5/2. |
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Heard a bookie say the other day they think he would go off about 5/2 and see they are going to run him again before the festival now and it's still the gold cup they are going for! He would need to run a shocker for that to change and looks like all go for gold.
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It's getting a bit boring now, but I can't for the life of me understand why on earth anyone would want Vautour to run in the Ryanair, well unless you've backed him in it I suppose.
We've got enough short price Mullins horses as it is. We don't want to ruin yet another grade one. From both a racing and punting perspective it will be a poorer festival for it, it'll kill the Ryanair as a betting heat, makes it generally an uninteresting race to watch as we pretty much know what he'd do to a Ryanair field and if I look at another without the favourite market I might scream. Also, we'll lose a fair chunk of quality and intrigue from the Gold Cup. A few people have stated that if Vautour doesn't run in the Gold Cup it will be a poorer one for it which I totally agree with, and we've already lost Coneygree. People have moaned about Mullins not sticking his big guns up against each other, yet the one time he may well do that in Vautour vs Djakadam we've still got people questioning it. We obviously don't know Vautour will stay the trip. But no-one knows he won't either, they can only have a hunch he won't. The thing is if he does manage to stay he has all the other characteristics that could send him down as a great. Only thing that sends him for the Ryanair is soft ground IMO. I think what Djakadam does tommorow plays absolutely no bearing on where Vautour runs. Djakadam has a good chance in the Gold Cup but if it came up good ground I'd be starting to get worried for him. No harm having a horse in there who's proven on good and one who's proven on soft. Djakadam may go ok on better going but that's as big a question mark at this stage as asking will Vautour get the trip, they're both unproven. At least we know Vautour excels on the firmer spring ground, we won't until race day with Djakadam. |
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rich richi says vautour may well have another run before chelt either denman chase at newbury ,red mills at gowran ,also in irish hennesy but that is a very tough race .
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red mills is only 2.4 miles irish Hennessey not ideal ,so denman chase looks the one imo
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I reckon it should all depend on opposition for where he has a prep, if it's a weak looking Denman Chase I'd send him there, if he might bump into a good one head to Gowran for the Red Mills. There's pros and cons to both those preps, the Denman you're likely to get better ground and a week extra to prepare for Cheltenham, the Red Mills you have a week less and likely softer ground but a shorter trip and don't have to travel over the water. Probably use the Denman as first choice and the Red Mills as a back up.
The Irish Hennessy wont happen, you don't want him bumping into Don Poli or Road to Riches over 3 miles in testing ground for a prep. They'll love the mud and Vautour won't so there's no chance he goes there. Vautour definitely needs a prep though. I couldn't have him going fresh from Kempton to Cheltenham, he's the sort who can pull early on. He did that at the start in the JLT last year even with a prep. A prep isn't about finding out if he gets 3 miles, it's about keeping him on his toes whilst mooting any tendency to be keen, but also striking the balance of not over exerting him. If he's going to win the Gold Cup he needs to be prepped to perfection as it will take some winning. |
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yeah denman looks the one especially as the red mills is right handed and over 2.4 miles
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rr also said he takes a lot of work and another race will do him the world of good
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Ricci quote on RP web site,
“I think Vautour on his day is something very special.” Sounds like a man who can't wait to see him in the premier race at the festival, (I expect that the majority of NH racing fans feel the same). |
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satrus - agree with the main thrusts of your posts - though cant have RTR loving the mud - not sure we are talking about the same horse - would have gone very close to winning last year if rain hadnt come imo.
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Maybe I was talking rubbish on RTR. To be honest I think the only times I've ever seen him run was last year's Cheltenham and Punchestown gold cups, and maybe I wrongly assumed he loved the mud, although that was down to him running a very brave race in the gold cup on soft. Could well have won it if it was good then!
Forgot Gowran was right handed. It's likely to be a weak field though and he'd still hack up, but Denman Chase probably first choice. |
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O/T
Is anyone else's racing channels running ok? The link seem not to be working. TIA. |