Cheltenham Festival
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Un De Sceaux - Question Marks?
Un De Sceaux - Question Marks?
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Replies: 92
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Douvan ain't won the Arkle yet.
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Be interesting to see the record shorties have,I would imagine odds on shots have a very good record.
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ods in recent years have a woeful record, where have you been :)
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Trying to think of them.
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 his form at the end is going to be 111F11F111F1F or something to those effects and if Douvan don't race him down the line. shouldn't one of those f's be in front of the 1 |
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There was a point in the Weekender this week that since 2009 WPM has had a near 60% strike rate with horses at 3-1 or shorter at the Festival, so it would appear that Willie's short priced horses at least have a good record.
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I find the top two milers exciting to watch because of their assured jumping at speed. I don't get that vibe with Un De Sceaux. I'm more impressed by his galloping. It seemed as though Ruby was cautious at every fence on Saturday. Understandably so as another fall would have been a disaster. If Sprinter Sacre has a chance it's in getting into the lead round the bend after the stands and pouring it on down the back straight if he's still capable. I don't see any way he can out-gallop UDS up the hill.
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it was a real pleasure to be at Ascot to watch UDS on Saturday, thought he controlled the race very well throughout and always looked to have plenty in hand. On the collateral form with SS it will be very difficult for anyone to beat him at Cheltenham as he seems perfectly well equipped on good ground in the Arkle last year, Douvan 1/14 against UDS, just a comical statement, we don't even know how good UDS is, he has hardly been put under pressure.
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Odds-on front runner with jumping frailties in a Grade 1 at the Festival. Ring any bells? Not really cricket but I'd imagine one or two trainers may be tempted to take a leaf out of Jenny Pitman's book.
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Thanks for reminding us
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I don't really think he has jumping frailties though - he is so good that they just have to let him pop away and be safe in the knowledge that he'll run away from them up the hill... He was almost foot perfect in the Arkle last year, and I expect the likely better ground will again see him jump more cleanly in March this time round.
I can see why people don't want to back him at odds-on but 10/11 looks very fair to me given his ability and last year's performance at Cheltenham. There are so many opportunities at Cheltenham, too - you don't have to bet in every race so I wouldn't be in any hurry to take him on... |
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Has UDS ever run against a proper Chaser who's served it up from flag fall?
What do we think would happen if he bumped into the 2014 Desert Orchid version of Special Tiara for instance? That would make for compelling viewing. Let's hope ST brings his a-game. A gimme from the front for UDS would be exasperating. |
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"I can see why people don't want to back him at odds-on"
Too right. Maybe I'm looking back through rose tinted specs but my recollection is that when there were proper bookmakers at Cheltenham, odds on in championship races was reserved for the likes of Arkle on the day, and even then they usually had to have won the race already. |
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There's not a proper champion chaser around that can serve it up to UDS from the start.
Even if ST tries to get to the front it will not succeed. I also wonder how hard they will be on Sprinter during the race......will they try and take UDS on earlyish? not sure they will. I don't think UDS will get the credit until he comes up against a horse that's good enough to give him a race. That won't be this season on any form we have. If Douvan lives up to his owners claim that he's the best he's had,then I hope he faces UDS next season. That would be the time we can finally give UDS the credit he deserves,that's of course if he managed to beat the owners best ever horse!! |
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The only thing that can stop UDS is if SS can come back to what we saw first time out this season at Chelteham, that day he travelled with the same power as he did in his pomp, that was missing 2nd time around, if he can improve again on the first run back and carry himself through the race in the same manner, then he could do it...he'll track UDS and we'll be able to tell what SS we've got long before the business end of the race comes.
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Absolutely Duffy. thats exactly what I think SS will do, and one would hope that he can travel well until the run in.
Personally I think he will be struggling before then as will the others, but for the sake of the race I hope I'm wrong. |
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Sprinter's best chance is to start eyeballing him from 4 out and put him on the floor imo. Not many horses can go toe to toe with SS over a fence, least of all Un De Sceaux.
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He wont get to him to do that, Walsh will make sure of that.
But it probably would be his best chance. |
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Ideally you want to look at Sprinter before the race. If he's on song it will be obvious in his appearance, as it was first time out with his gleaming coat, arched neck etc. There's no point in them holding back with Sprinter this time and I expect him to try and take on Un De Sceaux during the middle third of the race. To win I think he needs 4 lengths on Un De Sceaux at the top of the hill as the latter will prove better of the two in the final third, assuming he stays upright. I feel sure that Nico will be more confident in letting rip with his horse at a fence than Ruby.
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sprinter sacre overrated - of course
Bt Lightening Rod 24l (6 ran) Bt Peddlers Cross 16l (3 ran) Bt French Opera 6l (6 ran) Bt Cue Card 6l (7 ran) - OK decent run Bt Toubab 13l (4 ran) Bt Kumbeshwar 15l (7 ran) Bt Mad Moose 14l (7 ran) Bt Sizing Europe 19l (7 ran) - a master minded type run, never repeated Bt Cue Card 4.5l (6 ran) - was this an improvement on earlier defeat of cue card? probably not but was over 20f which would have suited cc more Bt Sizing Europe 5.5l (5 ran) - margin much less than in QM and probably an indicator of things to come if anyone believes above is representative of a 'superstar' then give yourself a shake and look back at the likes of badsworth boy, moscow flyer and even pearlyman and viking flagship who won 2 x QM sprinter sacre undoubtedly good but rating a product of the current generation and their need for superstars and hype lots on here complain about WPM not racing his best vs best and who knows what UDS could have achieved as a hurdler, but after march he's have an arkle and a QM in the bag and potentially/hopefully more to come which certainly won't be the case with sprinter sacre |
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so are you saying sprinter sacre is overated but uds isnt
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yes and probably - but if only way for UDS doubters to be persuaded otherwise is for UDS to beat SS in QM, then only 8 weeks to wait
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UDS beating an out of date SS won't convince me he's a better horse than SS in his pomp.
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and thats the thing - his pomp wasn't much as below shows
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and thats the thing - his pomp wasn't much as below shows
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I think that it is perhaps fair to say that UDS has lot a little of his X factor, he now has a concern over his jumping and there is also the very real issue that even if he won the CC this year he'd be doing so due to the absence of Vautour, plenty will argue against that but it is at least a valid argument, one that I subscribe to.
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I may be wrong but there seems to be an air of the" mike Tyson in his pomp " factor in that opponents are beaten before they start with some of the mullins horses ,in last weekends race gary moore said we are not" putting it up" to the fav i.e( taking him on up front) ,well he had 2 in the race in sire de grugy and traffic fluide and may be they are waiting till the big one and try different tactics then , but letting un de scaux have the race run to suit is asking for trouble, a bit like giving the ball to lionel messi and saying here lad we will sit back lets see what you can do ................
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Gordon, his pomp = 188 whether you like it or not. At the moment that equates to a good deal better than being off the bridle to get the better of Gods Own and beating an ageing Sire de Grugy.
Like you say, only 8 weeks to wait. If he's the superstar you think he is he'll obviously be rated 188 or higher after Cheltenham, whether that rating is "a product of the current generation and their need for superstars and hype" or not. |
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Gordon, you may yet be proved right about UDS - but crabbing SS to prove your point is doing yourself few favours.
It's not just the winning margins of those victories (there's multiple G1 winners in those races btw), it was the manner of them. Just imperious, from the way he winged the fences to his habit of drawing clear without seeming to be under any pressure at all. In 30 years of watching the game, he had a 12 month period where I can't think of another horse that would've got him out of his comfort zone. If UDS puts in a performance within 10lbs of what SS consistently acheived, he will win and be a very decent horse. So far we've a beating of Gods Own and the, nowadays, inconsistent SDG to go on for evidence. |
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cDammit! Crossed post Head, I look like a shameless plagiarist!
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What he did to CC and a very decent Flemenstar at Aintree
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Yeah, his best performance for me Duffy. Cue Card is one of the classiest intermediate horses there has been in the last 20 years and he just crushed him. In hindsight it probably contributed to SS's demise as I think the extra half mile meant him digging deeper than he ever had before - even if it looked effortless.
He certainly wasn't the same horse at Punchy the next day, despite winning. It was downhill thereafter. |
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Just watched it again. Incredible race. That was probably Cue Cards best ever performance too. They have run Flemenstar and Finians Rainbow absolutely ragged and they were no mugs.
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Me too, say what you like about Hendo, love that emotion you get from him....he marmalized CC.....came past the line like he was going down to the start.
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Anyone who crabs Sprinter's ability before his heart problems knows nothing about horses.
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autocue - no crabbing, but the rating of 188 was too high for what he achieved, IMO the defeats of CC were probably his best and I suspect CC (late 2015 vintage) is better than he was at that time so even then can't take too literally
desmond - running against CC at a trip more in his favour was a very good run and coupled with the (diminished) defeat of SE could have been a factor in subsequent problems but all credit to trainer for letting him take his chance desmond - also 30y plus of race watching and there were several others who took the breath away in same manner (dessie, kauto, badsworth boy to name but three - tingle creek, crisp a bit before my time) over a longer period of time and over a greater variety of distances than SS headmaster - 188 and IMO not merited but as they say, all about opinions. Personally I have been impressed with the enthusiasm and power which UDS races from his early hurdle runs and like most of us who are fans of NH racing, once one gets in your heart/head it's hard to let go..i hope he proves himself a great champion but he has a few years to get into my all time list like those above |
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I meant over 2 miles Gordon. As the name suggests, I stand behind no man in adoration of Dessie
 I also absolutely adore Cue Card, he's my favourite horse since Dessie, and I wouldn't swap him winning this years CGC for a 10" c0ck. I want it so much I've not even backed him, if that makes any sense But I suspect he was at his peak that year and couldn't get near SS - who was perhaps too good to truly love. |
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and I wouldn't swap him winning this years CGC for a 10" c0ck
you'd be right not too, it's no fun  . |
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It's the thought of taking 2" off the tip...... |
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DO - my heart wants CC, my head wants a V / Djak 1-2 for reasons mentioned on other thread and my pocket wants DC or RTR - you think youre mixed up - anyway back to the thread
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