Zabana - JLT Chase

good write up cheers

Good reasoned case for backing Zabana especially considering his price. He's certain not one I could see shortening in the weeks ahead and is a d cent price.

Well the shortening of the price didn't take long. Blue on Oddschecker and now only Hills holding 25's.  Had a bit more before it's all gone.

Was tipped up by the Irish Bloke on ATR last week as best value outsider from Ireland. That would explain the price going.

JLT NOVICES' CHASE - Cheltenham, Thursday March 17

With half the jumps season done and dusted, January is usually a good time to delve into the markets for the Cheltenham Festival in a bid to eke out some value on races that have yet to capture the betting public’s imagination as well as others. One such race that needs addressing is the JLT Novices’ Chase, as it’s one of the few championship races where there’s no definitive pecking order established by the bookmakers, or confirmed running plans by many trainers.

The connections of BRISTOL DE MAI (best price 16/1), however, have intimated that this race is very much on the agenda for their charge, and as such, he has to be a huge consideration in the ante-post market with this Grade 1 event as the likely target.

A Grade 1 winner already over hurdles, the son of Saddler Maker has transferred that sort of class to the larger obstacles, winning twice and finishing runner-up to arguably the two best British-trained novices in the shape of Garde Le Victoire and Ar Mad. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ inmate had the misfortune to bump into the former on his first start over fences, but then made no mistake at the second time of asking when routing the similarly useful Karezak by a wide margin at Warwick.

Although beaten fair and square by Ar Mad when upped in grade in the Henry VIII Novices Chase at Sandown on his next outing, it’s this form-line which makes him such an interesting contender away from the 2m category for future engagements. As we all know, the time of that Grade 1 contest at the Esher venue was over five seconds faster than the Tingle Creek run an hour later on the same card, so even accounting for the fact he finishing 10 lengths behind the winner, Bristol De Mai still would have beaten the likes of Sire De Grugy and Special Tiara using the stopwatch as a guide. The form has not only been boosted by Ar Mad himself - who beat Vaniteux at Kempton subsequently - but by fifth-placed Bouvreuil, who lowered the colours of hot-pot Vyta Du Roc at Doncaster next time.

All-in-all, everything looks totally believable about the race and that is why Bristol De Mai looks overpriced for the JLT when you analyse his accomplishments that day. On top of that, we know he stays the trip well courtesy of a resounding success over 2m 4f at Leicester last time out and that he handles pretty much most types of ground. Furthermore, he appears to be a really sound jumper and that solid technique should stand him good stead when the pressure cooker is switched on at championship level.

With his old rivals Ar Mad and Garde Le Victoire likely to stay down the two-mile route, there’s no question that the free-going grey has the best form on offer of the home contingent at this stage and that is why his price of 16/1 currently looks so appealing.

Clearly, Willie Mullins is likely to have a huge say in the argument with the likes of Shaneshill and Killultagh Vic waiting in the wings, but with doubts about so many others in the ante-post lists at time of writing, it makes sense to get involved with the selection before many punters cotton-on to his obvious-looking claims.

Bristol De Mai
JLT Novices Chase
1pt E/W

I agree with Mr Holding.

JLT Novice Chase – Bristol De Mai
1pt EW @16/1 Various.

Nigel Twiston – Davies has ran 3 horses in the JLT with 2 of those reaching the places & neither were as classy as Bristol De Mai who looks a near certain runner with connections likely to split up their two best novice chasers with L’ami Serge Arkle bound so at 16/1 I’d like to get BDM into the ante-post book. I’ll not dwell on his juvenile hurdling career but any horse who can take a Grade 1 on it’s Uk debut is obviously talented and so far his chasing career has shown he has transferred this ability to the larger obstacles.
First start at Uttoxeter he faced his old adversary Garde la Victorie & gave him a real target to aim at as he went off hard in front, Possibly too hard as coming to 2 out he was running on empty and barely picked up at the last so while he lost he came 21 lengths clear of the field so we can take a positive from the race along with his jumping which was spot on throughout.

Turned out at Warwick which is a good course for front runners he never see another rival as he sauntered to his first chase win from another old rival and former Grade 1 winning hurdler Karezak which set him up for a tilt at the Henry VIII novice chase at Sandown. One of the stiffest jumping tests for novices he handled the course admirably but I think it took a real leap of faith for anyone to envisage Ar Mad taking this prize although for me it showed Bristol De Mai might struggle against the top 2 milers as he jumps & travels through his races beautifully he just lacks that change of gear that you need for 2m racing so a step up in trip looked the next logical step although in his defence the form has been well advertised with Ar Mad since accounting for Vaniteux & Bouvreuil who finished last having won a nice race at Doncaster beating Vyta Du Roc on his next outing.

Took in a nothing race at Leicester over 2m4f on heavy ground which seems to suit him more than most and really he was never out of second gear in winning by 7 lengths so we know the trip is no concern so it’s now a matter of where he goes next as it would be nice to see a win at Graded class before March although this wouldn’t overly be a concern if he went straight to the Festival as we know his jumping is sound, The trip is what he requires & although he has never been to Cheltenham his record going left handed is 2 wins & 3 places from 5 starts and undulating courses he is 2 wins from 2 starts.

French breds have taken 3 of these from only 5 runnings so while he is a little young they do tend to be more forward than our Irish or British bred stock so I can’t see a lack of experience getting the better of him as he has already had 4 chase starts which is ample pre Cheltenham and given his running style he’ll not get caught up in any traffic problems.

Tell Us More who ran 3rd to ZABANA at Leopardstown over Xmas runs in the 3.45 Gowran tomorrow. A boost to the form would be nice before ZABANAs run in the G1 Flogas Novice chase at Leopardstown on 6th February.

Tell us More doing nothing other than boost the Zabana form there

Backed him at the start of the season at 25s remembering the hype from his hurdling days lol, encouraging looking, but obviously a lot more excited with Kill vic 14s and Zabana 20s so far

If there had been a decent novice in there I doubt Tell Us More would have won jumping like that.  However, he was still good enough to win easily and it didn't let the Zabana form down. TUM jumped much better going the other way around Leopardstown.

As if by magic!!!

PUNTERS are clearly expecting a big run from the Andrew Lynch-trained Zabana in Saturday's Flogas Novice Chase at Leopardstown, with William Hill reporting a major move for the seven-year-old in their market for the JLT Novices' Chase on the third day of the Cheltenham Festival.

Zabana certainly has form for the spring festivals as he was beaten just a quarter of a length by World Hurdle fancy Aux Ptits Soins in last year's Coral Cup, giving the winner 5lb, and was third behind Jezki in Grade 1 company at Punchestown.

He began his chasing campaign with a cosy win at Punchestown in December and has been heavily supported for the JLT ahead of his step up to Grade 1 company this weekend.

"There's a proper punt on Zabana, with some serious cash suggesting many like his chances for the Cheltenham Festival," said William Hill spokesman Jon Ivan-Duke.

William Hill have reacted by going 10-1 (from 16) for the the first race on day three and he has been cut across the board into joint second favourite at a best-priced 12-1 behind 5-2 market leader Killultagh Vic.

They all tipped Zabana on the Final Furlong podcast.

Good work Shockster. Sitting rather smugly on 25s! Ha!

Well Zabana now down to 10/1 and clear 2nd Fav behind Kilultagh Vic. Tomorrow is a real test in the Flogas at Leopardstown so fingers crossed.

This brings me on to another Value selection that I have backed as a second string to my JLT bow.

OUTLANDER 25/1 looks great value also. Last season as a novice he ran 3 times before the festival winning twice at 2.5 miles and beaten at 3m.  The 2nd win at Leopardstown, he beat amongst others Kilultagh Vic (Fav for the JLT), Windsor Park (Neptune Winner), Martello Tower(Albert Bartlett Winner) & No More Heros(current Fav for RSA). At the festival a 6L 6th is not as bad as it seems. He was wide throughout and fiddled/Iffy jumps when the sprint was on. 

This season his jumping has looked good and he is 2 from 2 so has to be respected.  At 25/1 he is also the shortest price of Gigginstown horses in the race so looks their main hope and this 2m5f is his trip. He must be odds on to go for this race and as such 25/1 to me looks far too big.  He's also Fav tomorrow to beat Zabana which makes his 25/1 quote seem crazy compared to the 10/1 Zabana.

Anyway thats my thoughts and on both now at 25/1 for the JLT.

Also agree, had a few bob on

Just watched the replay of Zabana's debut over fences and bar from fiddling one he jumped beautifully and travelled like a dream. Only just beginning to sort out my Cheltenham bets and picked up this thread which is great work!!

Interestingly there is a form line between Outlander and Zabana. Mr Diablo was 7.25l behind Zabana. Outlander had just taken Mr Diablo's measure at the 2nd last at Punchestown when that horse came to grief when beginning to tire so i would say Outlander would have finished a similar if not more distance ahead. So a saver on Outlander is a shrewd move.

I found Zabana visually more impressive but there is not much between them. Outlander is 2-2 and Zabana 2-3 at the course and with the classy Pont Alexandre and Monksland (Gr1 form tie-ins with other novices) tomorrows race looks very interesting! This race historically throws up some Cheltenham pointers and i am going to join Shockster ante post advice

Think it would be JLT if running well tomorrow, as owners have No More Heroes in RSA.

I would say JLT because Gigginstown & Brian Cooper don't have a viable alternative and also all Outlanders best form is at 2.5 miles.

Obviously more will be known after Today's race, but should he win then 25/1 will be just a dream as winner likely to be 2nd fav IMO.

I have to admit as much as a fan i am of Killultagh Vic i was not overly impressed with his jumping in his 2 chases so far. Felt he bunny hopped a few of the fences and obviously he made that huge error at the last in his most recent start. Cheltenham could find him out in a race run at Championship pace and with him taking a large portion of the market i think it is ripe for an ew bet. We will know more later today!!!

BDM looks a machine.