RYANAIR CHASE

Just checked,and DC was a non runner in the gold cup, so you are correct Rease.
Apologies.
You learn something all the time in this game!!

just looking at the results, Budd - he is recorded as a non runner so therefore I'm assuming he must have been declared at final declaration point i.e. declared on Wed for GC, ran in Ryanair on Thurs, declared as non runner in Gold Cup on Fri.

I've not looked up the rules just reaching a conclusion based on history.

but this is potentially the other way round so if they declare him for ryanair but run him in gc they would have to nr him for ryanair and presumably have to give a reason?? dont they have to have a good reason? the point i guess is that because the ryanir is first doesnt that increase the odds further of him running in ryanair - because it would be a big risk not to declare him and once decalred they have to have a good reason not to run him - my head hurts

Have a lie down miltons...

im having a lie down now.....hopefully in the morning someone will have solved this one!!

I think he'll be in the Ryanair regardless of the ground.  I'd say Valseur Lido is the one where the decision will be made last minute.

I know they can declare him a non runner if there is a going change from the time they declared him until the day of the race - beyond that I'm not coertain

Only in handicaps is there a rule where if a trainer has declared to run they have to have a good reason not to run. In any other class/type of race you can legally double declare then pull them out, though without reason i am sure they lose declaration moneys paid. The reason the rule is there for handicaps is that a trainer can declare a top weight to keep the weights down for another of their runners, thus not allowing more competition into the race. The after declaration just not run the top weight save it for another day their other runner off 10 stone then romps home cos theres little or no other competition, i am pretty sure a couple of trainers down the years have fallen foul to this rule and been fined by the BHA.

I have a nasty feeling you are right Chief,but I cling to the fact that his owner said he thinks he would have won last year on better ground.

The change was made to allow others that would otherwise have been balloted out to give them a chance of a run nothing to do with skullduggery sts

Vatour runs in the Ryanair and wins well.

No chance of that now he's going straight to Cheltenham.

Why not?

A non stayer just out of novice status who evidently looked like a non stayer in the KG. Would be a shoe in in the Ryanair. Also have GC hopeful aside from him.

I think they will play safe this year and attempt the GC next year when he can go for a treble of Chelt victories. Any rain will force their hand further.

Have a sneaky feeling they will bottle it and take the low hanging fruit. Will look a bit silly when he runs out of puff going into the business end of the GC.

Is Vautour definitely going straight there now? Right decision Imo, but I thought they were toying with running him in a prep?

Ricci wanted him to run in Denman but Mullins wants to send him Straight to Cheltenham.
Mullins makes the decisions so i take it he goes straight to Gold Cup.
Nowhere else to run him if he don't run in Denman.

I don't think you can say a horse is a non stayer after only one run at 3 mile.
I will be amazed if he runs in Ryanair(Grade 1 in name only this year the way it's looking).

Jesus. First run at 3 miles & is beaten in a photo yet is categorically a non stayer. Tough crowd.

In what looks a vintage KG too!

Yep, that KG form could hardly have been better franked this last two weeks, with Smad Place and Valseur Lido both putting in eye-catching performances.
By contrast the Lexus form has taken a bit of a knock.
By not prepping Vautour, he hasn't the opportunity to categorically prove he doesn't get 3 miles - I think he'll be fine by the way - and so straight to CGC it is.
What wins this race, I've no idea! My fancy for a while has been Champagne West, but he disappointed the last day. I think he could still run a big race and hope his mark isn't attractive enough to Hobbs to have a stab at a 'cap. I've taken small insurance for the Plate anyway, just in case.

All winter I was sure they would run Vautour in the Ryanair as Djakadam was so prominent in the betting for the GC.

But after his fall, and what you could only say is an uncertain prep, I think Ruby will find it easier to get off him, thus paving the way for him and Vautour to go for Gold. I can't believe anyone can suggest he doesnt stay. Its plain daft, on the basis of one run in a top class race where he was beaten a nose. He has always been a much better horse on spring ground in March. We know he loves the place and that must count for a lot. If he's 20 lengths clear coming over the last he might not even need to stay that well!

Vautour reminds me too much of One Man and Florida Pearl, ok two completely different horses, (one didn't even win outside of Ireland which is obviously surely just a coincidence) but neither one stayed in the CGC or looked like hosing up to the point of the hill.

Who didn't win outside of Ireland? One Man Florida Pearl won twice at Cheltenham, a King George and at Aintree.

Florida Pearl won a King George, a Martell Cup and at the Festival twice STS, plus he looked like winning a CGC before getting caught close home by Looks Like Trouble. His record over here was top notch.
You might be thinking of Beef or Salmon? But Vautour is nothing like him, nothing at all.
One Man was better over shorter, as he proved by winning a Champion Chase. I suppose one could see the similarities there, if he fails to stay at Cheltenham - but not yet.

LOL, I'm slowerthanslowerthanjohn

Ha ha I feel for you Desmond

I like the sound of my own voice too much. A punchy reply like yours and I'd've beaten you to it. But I had to prattle on for three lines!

At least your prattle is correctI was a little shocked when I read about hadn't won outside Ireland so I don't think you would

To be fair, I think STS picked up on another comment on a different thread that was talking about both Florida Pearl and Beef or Salmon, the poster stated that one of them had never won outside of Ireland - I just think STS got his wires crossed as he probably wasn't watching racing at the time.

Everyone makes mistakes and everyone is entitled to an opinion but if you try to back your opinion up with facts at least get your facts correct

STS on a lunch break,don't worry we can't see your redner

It's not the fact Vautour got beat a nose and how can you say he didn't stay on that basis, it was the manner of the defeat.

If you asked someone before the race to explain what you would expect to see in the race to heavily suggest that Vautour won't stay the Gold cup trip, you would describe precisely what actually happened in the race.

Travels powerfully into the straight with everyone wondering how far? somehow doesn't finish the race off to the extent he was travelling turning in.

Again, it's not the narrow defeat, he could have got beat a couple of lengths but had performed differently through the race and you could have come away thinking he does stay, but not in this case, he put on a performance of a stereo-typical non stayer IMO.

What would say about Smad Place's run duffy? Ran like even more of a non stayer?

No, you can't just look at finishing positions in isolation, smad place stays further but he was simply taken off of his feet through the race which hurt him, just because he stays and vautour finished in front of him means that vautour must stay, it's not black and white like that is it.

Plus it was the best race SP had ever run in and he was simply exposed, his run next time, as impressive as it was didn't in truth frank the form as with Djak out of the race it had no credible GC markers left in it to beat, the same as if SP had got beat out of sight it wouldn't have left a black mark against the KG either.

No. But it isnt black and white to say that a horse doesnt stay because he didnt quite get home either. The ground was testing, they went a real gallop, and he almost certainly wasnt at his peak. I think he blew up more than didnt stay myself. A bit like he did at Ascot coming to the last when he didnt finish far ahead of Ptit Zig.

Time will tell, and this debate has been done to death (!), but my view is that you cant call him a non stayer yet.

But Smad Place is further away at the line than when they turn in, you would expect he would be doing his best work at the end, surely?
Al Ferof was also closer and ended up miles back.
There's no doubt that the brutal pace of the race meant that even the horses at the front of the race finished leggy, but that doesn't mean they didn't stay either. Horses always slow down at the end of races. Cue Card probably outstayed Vautour to get up - but there's no shame in that as he's now a top notcher over 3m and as Paddy said, was all-out to do that. Doesn't mean either of them didn't stay.

Vautour may well stay, and I believe that if the Ryanair is the only alternative he should definitely run in the GC as he's too good a horse (the best in training) to not find out about.

IMO their class is such that they could hurt SP through the race and keep going even though they aren't at their most effective to not allow his stamina to come into play...SP was simply outclassed.

Spot on Des. Running the last few furlongs ever so slightly slower than Cue Card, one of the best about, doesn't mean you 'haven't stayed'. Its all relative.

Yeah, with Brennan getting off and stating that the horse doesn't want to go another yard (or words to that effect)

Of course he didn't Duffy (though he would've if asked ). They'd just done 3 miles at a suicidal pace, they all finished knackered. Well, those that finished and didn't brush through the top of one and crumple tiredly on landing

But that kind of backs it up even more duffy! The horse hade given every single ounce he had, to get past the non stayer

What happens if DC stays on his feet, I reckon he wins a couple lengths and is strong at the finish, the fact that he fell doesn't really matter because we saw enough to suggest that what I've said was a "likely" scenario and it puts into context Vautour's relative position with regards to strength of stamina...how does Vautour look now, with of course another couple of furlongs and stiff finish to come.

You can argue that Vautour was only 75% fit, but I doubt that because although the race was the KG it was also a fact finding mission and if I wanted to find out if my horse stayed I would want him going into the race pretty much fit as possible in order to get an accurate assessment from the race, I certainly would not want any tiring due to fitness muddying the waters so you are left unsure whether it's fitness or stamina that is lacking.

What you saying, the speed merchant clung on before Vautour's stamina had kicked in

What happens if DC stays on his feet,
But he didn't and two out is far enough for me not to have your certainty over the outcome.
Even then, if DC does win a length, does that prove that Vautour doesn't stay? Or do you go for the CGC anyway, knowing that you've got a course specialist and the horse that beat him has failed the last two times he went to the Festival?

I did say I thought it "likely" he would have won, I think it's a common assumption, could be wrong of course.

Personally i think CC just didn't quicken, more plodded at the same pace from turning in to the line, Vautour however slowed giving the non staying argument some credence. The very fact that PB said he didn't want to go another yard (cc) is only due to the pace of that race. The CGC will be totally different pace wise, it always is. For a start they go round the first circuit just rolling along and trying to get into rhythms, gradually increasing the pace as they come round the stands the first time but not properly racing until they reach the top of the hill where we expect those jockeys with weaker nerves to push the button first. (well apart from Denmans CGC anyways)
If the race is run exactly like i described above and RW is riding Vautour up front, who's to say whether he will get home or not, no one knows till the day. But if he is hurried up front by another pace setter or the race is run just like the KG he has no chance. This is what i think will happen as more front runners etc. This is the reason for the above comment with One Man and Florida Pearl, i did get my facts mixed up. And when i referred to me thinking Vautour reminds me of One Man and/or Florida Pearl it is because i think the race will be brutal and he will stop at the bottom of the hill just as them two brilliant steeplechasers did in their year(s). I didn't or didn't at least intend to say that Vautour is just like them i said

SEATHESTARS....NO1 09 Feb 16 11:51 Joined: 04 Oct 09 | Topic/replies: 3,705 | Blogger: SEATHESTARS....NO1's blog
Vautour reminds me too much of One Man and Florida Pearl, ok two completely different horses

I would be saying the exact same about Vautour as above IF he won the King George

You've also got to throw into the mix the fact that he is naturally a keen going sort and with "maybe" stamina at a premium, that is something that could hurt him.

Sound investment out for season.

Why?
I currently fail to see any similarities at all with either horse - or Beef or Salmon for that matter - that would cause you to be reminded of them?
Can I ask you a question STS, were you watching racing during those horses careers?

Me neither, Vautour aint won no KG

Erm yeah, I put up a cry because I was one man's biggest fans!! And I backed both in cgc too!

LOL Duffy, no. And he may never do so, these French Breds only have so long at the top - another reason to strike while the iron is hot.
I wondered STS, because I don't see the similarities with Vautour, or even with each other at all. Florida Pearl probably left his Gold Cups in the Leopardstown mud and One Man, despite winning a Hennessey, was clearly more effective over shorter - it just took them a long time to work that out. That may still be true of Vautour, but you don't 'know' that and neither does anyone else yet.

I have explained before jeez this is hard work. Vautour slowed in the KG therefore imo he is a non stayer, i think he got the 2miles 7.5 furlongs at kempton going at that pace but not the final few yards thus allowing CC who to my eye did not quicken merely stayed far better than at a much steadier pace.

I see similarities especially with One Man when his KG was run at Sandown, he took it up a long way out and 'lasted' then went to that seasons CGC and looked for all the world like he was going to dot up at the last for him to meet the hill and stop as if shot. In fact he did that twice!
I seen that in Vautour during the final 50-100 yards of the KG.
Florida Pearl just didn't get the 3m 2f trip at Cheltenham but in a fair few races looked for all the world as a world beater, i remember the Irish being all over him for it on the lead up, similarities with Vautour are everywhere.

Don't get me wrong i maybe wrong Vautour might out last them in the CGC but given his style of racing i very much doubt it. Think he will be labouring either just before the last or just after it. Hence another similarity.

over the longer distances One Man was so easy through his races, the power was sort of disguised where as Vautour noticeably powers along, one man was the equine version of Fred Couples, easy going effortless and when it got tough...fook it shrugs shoulders.

One thing for certain if nothing else Vautour is a much better horse left handed and most of his best form is in the Spring. I backed him in the KG straight after he'd won the JLT and was gutted when CC chinned him. Top class chasers are around forever and like Desmond says strike while iron is hot, he may not but I'm prepared to keep faith with the best horse in the race that may not stay

Aren't around forever

I have a share in Sound Investment. Devastated to say the least in the widest open Ryanair in years. He's had a great season and two excellent runs off top weight at Cheltenham (in two of the fiercest handicaps) and won an Old Roan.

Couldn't have asked for more and he'll be back next year to fight another day.

Gutted.

Bad luck WC, that's NH racing I'm afraid a brutally tough game and you should just cherish the good times.

Sorry to hear that WC, they're fragile creatures.
Agree, he would've had a knocking chance this year, what a day out that would've been! I hope you have many more.

Cheers fellas. I was in the winners enclosure when he won the Old Roan, something I'll never forget.

Just shows you have to make the most of them when they are fit and things are going well. Another reason why Vautour should go Gold Cup now because no idea what's round the corner.

Grand horse though he was, Florida Pearl was no world beater, he was just the best staying chaser from that side of the water at the time. He got beaten far too often to be considered a superstar and although he did put up some terrific performances it might be that off the back of a slog round at Leop in early Feb, those Gold Cups were as good as he was. It's noticable that WPM doesn't run his CGC horses in it any more - I'm far from convinced that he was a non-stayer.
Should Vautour fail to stay and then go on and win a Champion Chase, I will concede your One Man point

They all slowed at the end of the KG this year, it was run at a suicidal pace, were they all non-stayers imo?

No, but a stayer that hasn't got the tactical speed through the race to keep up will be so knackered through trying to keep up earlier on he won't be able to deploy the stamina side of his game because it would have been so beat up through the race...he's got to be able to go at his own pace, SP was outclassed.

One Man was greatly aided in his CC victory by the fact he had Ask Tom as fav. and KD and VF who were both past their best, even though KD was a year younger than OM

It wasn't a vintage CC Duffy, you're right there.
I tell you what though, I was there that day and have rarely seen such an outpouring of joy from the spectators as he drew clear. Incredible scenes.

I think this is ripe for a bet. I've had a lump on Road to Riches at 5s and 9/2 NRNB, and then about half that stake on Ballynagour and Annacotty NRNB. Vautour not entered at either Gowran or Newbury, so I'd think he'll definitely go for the Gold Cup now. I think this'll be a shocking race

Yeah, I wasn't there and as you say, it doesn't matter what the opposition was really, it was One Man coming up the hill first and we all loved him.

Just one name to reply to that first comment duffy mate

No, but a stayer that hasn't got the tactical speed through the race to keep up will be so knackered through trying to keep up earlier on he won't be able to deploy the stamina side of his game because it would have been so beat up through the race...he's got to be able to go at his own pace, SP was outclassed.

Carlingford Lough Not saying he will win a CGC but he will be a mighty player in a fast run Grand National! Suicidal early, same pace plodder who just kept going, possibly gifted by Vaseaur Lido falling, possibly not but thats a debate for another thread.

As for the SP was outclassed point, am not sure, may well have been but there is the argument that this horse maybe happier dictating the pace or at least up front with the leaders. The pace in the KG wasn't that bad early on but he was being held up.

Desmond Orchard 09 Feb 16 16:26 Joined: 28 Jun 04 | Topic/replies: 2,737 | Blogger: Desmond Orchard's blog
It wasn't a vintage CC Duffy, you're right there.
I tell you what though, I was there that day and have rarely seen such an outpouring of joy from the spectators as he drew clear. Incredible scenes.

I was a grown man weaping prefusely in my local Gus Carters turf accountants in Monkseaton mate

I'm on Ballynagour at 100 on here for the Ryanair, ignore winter soft ground 3 miles with this horse, spring good ground and he's a player for this race preferably fresh (not happy with him running this Saturday really. He wants 2.5 on good ground around Cheltenham, have a look at him at punchy before he fell and before any stamina issue came into play and he travels as well as anything, he's got good form with the very best during the spring and he's forgotten all about because of how he goes through bad winter ground over 3 miles.

My concern there would be Pipe's form Duffy. I'm a supporter of the barn and it was well documented that they had a slow start, but they've barely picked up at all since.
Nichols gets some flak over his form, but Pipey doesn't seem to be able to buy a decent winner these days.
Still at 100......

It was an amazing day in many ways STS, made even more poignant by the events of a few weeks later on.

That's true I have to say, I actually e-mailed them and got a reply (they're good for that) even got a phone call once!! they sad that he's targeted at the Ryanair but will have to show some form first to earn his place there.

Bearing that in mind I'm not sure how he's supposed to show that in bad ground at newbury, I was hoping that they'd just go straight there as he's best really fresh.

STS,

CL isn't really the same thing as although he was out the back, walsh never really asked him to do anything he wasn't capable of, in effect he was going his own pace and therefore his stamina came into play when it was naturally able to and he picked up the pieces, SP was in the heat of battle and it hurt him.

Even if Vautour had another run we still would not know if he stays.
He would have had a prep over 3m,and we all know staying 3m does not mean you stay just over 3m 2f.

I am completely with Duffy,in that he ran the absolute classic non stayers race in the KG.
Hes the one out of the top fancies that I have dismissed, his price is too short for the doubts that surround him anyway.

Think he would win the Ryanair pretty easily though.

Let's put it another way: Vautour stayed the KG distance, but Cue Card stayed further and outstayed Vautour; if Vautour, Cue Card, Don Cossack and Don Poli jump the last in the CGC with just a length or two between them Vautour and Cue Card will not carry my money - it will be either of the two Dons I can assure you.

By the way, Vautour beat Valseur Lido - a stayer that needed the full 24f at the weekend on soft ground - over 20f (JLT) on good ground at Cheltenham last year.

In that scenario,i want to be with DP.
He jumps the last that close its all over imo.

I'd not be as confident as you because DC has a turn of foot that has yet to be surpassed by any!

A turn of foot Don Cossacks yet to show at Cheltenham.

Put it this way I expect DP at some stage to be further back than that,so if hes got that close hes winning in my book. There aint going to be big turns of foot at the end of this race imo.

Correct bud

Has DC ever been passed when in front after the last fence? I hope not by DP at Cheltenham, here's hoping!

That's 2 hope's  the only 1 ye didn't mention was no hope

came back from being out all day saw 59 new posts on the ryanair thought something dramatic had happened only to realise someone had cut and pasted a half a dozen of the other threads   btw wc - hard lines sir

Before anyone says he will...JH is not going to win the Ryanair so there.

After today could Top Gamble be a lively outsider, especially if it came up soft.

I was onto the Ryanair market as TDS serenely cruised around the home turn today at warwick only to discover he doesn't even have an entry

I'd agree with top gamble, I'd also add smashing who iv previously backed for this and won well today, i wouldn't be expecting him to win but it's an extremely open contest without vautour and I expect he will be in the mix

If you look at the Ryanair without Vautour and RTR then it's wide open,and I can think of worse bets than Josses Hill at his current price.

just looked thru the list as you say if the big ones there go to gold cup like expected its so open, id be very interested in felix younger if they didn't run and he did here instead of CC

Dynaste 20/1 anyone ? Entered on Saturday

After you're comments on ruby thread you'll be interested in 1 that he would probably be on

dynaste wouldnt be the worst looking bet at 20-1 but the worry with this race is if it is soft vautour might still end up running in it

Vatour will run in it if:

1) The ground is soft or;
2) Connections come to their senses and realise he is a non stayer for the GC and a penalty kick for the Ryanair.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Vautour will definitely be going Gold Cup though . RTR will go off fav with Al ferof close second .

Vautour on good Cheltenham ground will be hard to beat in the gold cup

Latest defectors.
Sound Investment, Smad Place, Simonsig, Ptit Zig, Traffic Fluide, Salubrious, Un Beau Roman, Bishops Road

Something I really like at a price is Clarclam. Currently 33s NRNB (Bet every day of the year) and 66's (Powers). Personally believe that his horse is completely mispriced based around its winter form where its run in absolute bogs, on the wrong tracks and over the wrong trip. I think this is potentially a real 'improver' once the spring ground comes, if it ever does.

Going purely on numbers and looking at its history,
10 runs going left handed (Won- 4 times, placed 3 times, unplaced 3).
11 runs going right handed runs (2- wins, 1 place, unplaced 8 times).
Left handed - 70% place rate
Right handed- 27% place rate

I can't believe that for one second, given how this horse ran at Aintree over 2 and a half at the National meeting last year, that he doesn't prefer a sounder surface & that he probably really wants good ground. I personally think that all his winter form is on ground he hates, going the right handed and a trip he doesn't really appreciate. A final point would also be that I think he will run and could potentially have Cooper on him. Its easy to make a case where Gigginstown have 4 runners in the Gold Cup (Don x2, Road to Riches & Valseur Lido) leaving Clarclam as the only Giggs candidate for their own race (From memory!)

All of this said, his mark of 152 could be perfect for something like the Plate!