Cheltenham Festival
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Vatour even money favourite in the antepost markets and avaialble at 8,s for Gold Cup. Surely will go for the GC?
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It will be a crying shame if one of the best horses in training ends up in the ****g Ryanair.
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agreed
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His next race will tell us more. If it's anything less than 3m you'd think he'd be Ryanair bound.
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I'd go ryanair. If ricci has both available he would want one for each race i'd guess. If need be they could go down the gold cup route some other time, like don cossack and cue card.
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If no Vautour or Road to Riches then it looks a poor renewal. If Vautour lines up, he wins, if RTR lines up and Vautour doesn't, be wins.
Outside of those, Smad Place and Al Ferof are poor second and third favourites. Vroum Vroum Mag has nothing in her form to suggest she should be 12/1. I'd have to go for Sound Investment or Village Vic if he runs. Both solid Cheltenham form at the distance, and both open to improvement. Both would be a long way behind Vautour and RTR though imo |
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Vibrato Valtat will go for this if we get good ground. A good run by Sire De Grugy at the weekend would put him bang there in this, considering he ran well against SDG and Sprinter at Kempton over a trip too short for him.
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You wouldn't back VV on good ground though would you chief? Definitely think he needs it soft.
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I think Good to Soft would be fine for him mate, but no quicker than that. I thought he ran quite well in the Arkle and was punished for trying to go with Un De Sceaux. I think he would have finished second if they rode him more conservatively, and just out of his depth this year in open company.
Hsven't had a bet in this race by the way, but this is usually a good one to get involved in early because of how much it will cut up, like the JLT; although if Vautour turns up and you've backed something else, then good luck! As I said above, Vautour and RTR are a class apart from everything else in the field, but if they don't run, some nice prices around. |
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Is it now the time that we start to think of taking the 12's on Road to Riches, which would be the bet of the week if he runs.
Djakadam's fall will push Vautour nearer the Gold Cup imo, and Paddies now go 5/2 on Vautour for the Ryanair. I think they'll end up sending Smad Place to the Gold Cup after that too. Couple that with Meade saying O'Leary wants RTR left in the Ryanair, and his drift in the Gold Cup market, are things starting to point to RTR in the Ryanair at a knocking price? I don't want to get into a debate of "he should be in the Gold Cup etc etc", we need to start to think of where we think he will run using our heads, not where we want him to run with our hearts. |
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Took my own advice anyway and just backed at 12's.
Hills the only ones who are 12's, the price on oddschecker for BF Sportsbook is incorrect; they are 7's. |
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You know it makes sense Well Chief.
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365 have gone 5's for RTR.
12's with Will Hills is looking big now since everywhere else it's been cut. Looking very thin on quality this race is should Vautour and Smad Place go to the Gold Cup. |
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That 365 is NRNB onoffer.
The 12's comes with all the risks attached unfortunately. |
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Ah right fair enough, I just scanned odds checker without looking at NRNB.
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How significant is Don Poli's defection from the Irish Gold Cup? What is the implication regards the Cheltenham Gold Cup? Who is the number one creditable candidate to represent Gigginstown in the Ryanair?
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I don't think it really matter because I don't think Don was ever an intended runner.
Even if RTR wins by 10 lengths at the weekend, it will be a last minute decision as to where he runs imo. Noel Meade clearly wants him in the Gold Cup but you get the feeling O'Leary wants him in the Ryanair. If anything happened to either Don in the mean time, it will be 100% Gold Cup for sure. |
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wellchief,
Yep, I'd agree. If both the Dons are sound RTR will be Ryanair bound; I believe the Gigginstown did ask its trainer to enter RTR in the Ryanair, did they not? I believe Vautour is a very unlikely runner here now given the unfortunate incident with Djakadam over the weekend, maybe VVM, but who knows for sure with WPM? |
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One that I have backed today is Traffic Fluide in this at 14/1 NRNB.
Still probably more likely to go to QMCC, but just in case Gary Moore wants to seperate him and SDG, he has already said SDG would never stay more than 2m. Does look like a poor renewal and looks like a race that will cut up hugely, so any decent NRNB prices, I'll be taking them now. |
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Iv backed a few this week in total I have.
Smashing ew 33/1 nrnb bog Valseur lido ew 12/1 nrnb bog Vroum vroum mag 14/1 win bog nrnb Sir des champs ew 16/1 nrnb bog Felix yonger ew 16/1 nrnb bog Obviously wont all run but Who runs absolutely no idea. Paddies make me think wroum vroum won't however. Will be keeping a close eye on Vroum vroum price Huge value with smad place and vautour going gold cup and rtr most likely joining them. |
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fav for both races now
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Did any one see willies interview yesterday at the end on atr, gave me the impression without saying it that vroum vroum likely goes ryanair. Saying she's only entitled in ratings to go for the mares but he thinks she could be better than her mark and go for a grade 1.
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not seen the interview but would love VVM to go Ryanair, I tend to bet in multiples for Cheltenham ante post and got this 1 with min n yanworth all at 12/14s.... fingers crossed.
If she goes there would only be concerned about RTR but looked a long hard slog yesterday, might have took its toll on most runners. |
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So which piece of chase form gives VVM that sort of chance in the Ryanair?
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Think that was scooby's point, budd. Mullins said that the bare form only entitled her to go for the Mares race. But Willie implied that they think she is a fair bit better than her form suggests - so WH and Ryanair still possibilities. To be fair, he also said that there had been no conversation about the Ryanair. I'm as keen as scoob for her to have a crack at the Ryanair, but I think it's 50-50 with the World Hurdle to be honest.
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Im all for trying to find nice prices for horses that I might think a better than the rating they have,in particular young improvers,but VVM is not a nice price for any race she's being touted for.seems to me she's priced up on connections quotes and people jumping on the bandwagon.
I saw Her at Ascot and she's a nice looking horse,and she won easily,but against other mares that are a fair way below the class of horse she will be up,against in any of these races at Cheltenham,particularly the Ryanair and WH. |
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Nothing learned from Annie Power saga,run the horse in its correct race or don't run in any.If VVM is better than her mark then run in an hcap.
Layers dream in Ryanair or WH. |
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I suppose she is rated higher over fences than hurdles. If RTR went Ryanair, she's 10lbs behind him (or 3lbs with the mares allowance) or she's 19lbs behind Thistlecrack in World Hurdle (or 12lbs with the mares allowance), so from a handicapping point of view, she is probably better in the Ryanair.
It would worry me going from chasing to hurdling and then back to chasing again, especially in an open company G1 chase. |
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strongest indicator yet that rtr could be ryanair bound from tonights rp
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o'leary saying 'not sure about the gc trip.... three miles might be as far as he really wants. we'll certainly be considering the ryanair bt we're in no rush to decide.
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Meade still saying Gold Cup publically, but at the end of every interview he says "...but it's up to the owners".
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always dangerous to read between the lines but how i interpret is trainer has said gc - owners think unless its good ground it wont stay - dont want to disrespect/contradict trainer publicly so word it how they have to allow trainer to save face and at same time run him in ryanair - which gutfeel is the race i think they want to run him in. i suspect yesterdays run was the clincher - a race he should have won in owners opinion and in their eyes would have if he truly stayed.
For me if DC and DP stay sound rtr 90/10 now in favour of ryanair - now watch him sluice up in gc  |
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So if it's good ground he should run in Gold Cup then I imagine.
Not good enough ground then Ryanair,that makes sense. Be interesting what actually happens if the forecast is good ground on the Friday. |
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You'd think Ryanair is the obvious target with their two for the GC already toward the head of the market and the Ryanair being a race they obviously target and looking a particularly weak renewal
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I'm going on owner and trainer comments and visual impressions etc etc, talk was that she could have improved to be a 2016 gold cup contender toward the back end of last season and WM has publicly said her 153 rating seems very workable. nothings got her off the bridle yet.
To to me I think she could be capable of a 160+ performance in the Ryanair, which this year would go very close! on ante post at 14s, if she lines up she will be no bigger than 5/1 on the day in what seems a weak renewal. talk at the start of the season was hennessy then onto Ryanair, only AP not being fit made them look at the hurdling options. The Ryanair seems weaker than the WH IMO |
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so being a grade 1 they have to declare him a runner on tuesday for the ryanair - is that right so for them not to declare him they would have to be very confident on tuesday that it would be a good ground gc - if they declare him tuesday , can they also declare him wednesday for the gc? and if so can they decalre him a non runner for the ryanair on the thursday and run him in the gc ??? what reason would they give??? does it matter - what are the rules with these things?
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Pretty sure they can declare him for both because the new declaration rules only apply to the handicaps which are always going to be oversubscribed.
Looking at last year's results - they double declared Don Cossack last year, ran him in the Ryanair - and then he was a non runner in the Gold Cup. Interesting also that DC was their only runner in the Ryanair last year. |
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Not 100 per cent on this,but I believe once you have declared a horse to run in a Grade 1, you cannot then enter another Grade 1 next day.
Maybe someone can clarify/ confirm? |
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So they declared DC in Ryanair,then next day declared him in GC......you sure Rease?
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Just checked,and DC was a non runner in the gold cup, so you are correct Rease.
Apologies. You learn something all the time in this game!! |