Killultagh Vic

Yeah can't believe it's that.

Posted this on the RSA thread and it's a bit of a theory.

Lydia Hislop tipped him on her Sportinglife column, though I don't know if that's enough to cause a market move.

I have another theory, though the market doesn't quite back this up, and it revolves around giving jockeys as many rides as possible, and making sure races which are there to won be are won.

It may be that Willie has looked at the RSA and decided that NMH and MOT are going to be very hard to beat. Coupled with Shaneshill's less than perfect jumping in both his outings in my opinion, aim Killultough Vic at the JLT as well. It's looking quite a weak race with no star so why not go double barrelled and give yourself the maximum chance of winning it.

By moving KV to the JLT with Shaneshill, and then running Black Hercules and Pont Alexandre in the RSA, Ruby and Townsend would both have a decent ride in both races.

Aim Roi Des Francs at the 4 miler and let Patrick ride that. Gigginstown will probably also have Rule The World in the race, and can use a jockey of their own choosing, such as Nina Carberry, to ride that horse.

I went through the last few 4 Mile chases and apart from Back In Focus, who was split up from Boston Bob, Willie doesn't really run a 'stable star' in it - it tends to be a decent horse which will give Patrick a nice spin and a decent chance of winning if things go well.

Like I said, the market seriously goes against this theory, and it looks like BH is being aimed at the 4 Miler, but with Townsend really doing rather well over the past 12 months or so, I'm wondering whether keeping him sweet is more important than keeping Patrick happy.

Punters belatedly realising he was way overpriced and also looking more likely that he goes the JLT route I'd say has caused the price to get smashed. If he lines up in the JLT it wouldn't surprise me to see him start favourite in the day.

KV declared for the 2m 3f Leopardstown race on Sunday as expected

Suspected he'd be JLT bound for a while now, mentioned it way backw, anyway with regards to Lydia Hislop tipping him and why I would take heed of that more than any other info we have is this:

If I had been lucky enough to interview said trainer at Sandown a couple of weeks ago( she mentions that she's had it on her mind for a couple of weeks), even if I never had enough time to ask him about a horse that I was clearly interested in on camera, I'd make sure I asked him about it off camera so I could then decide what I wanted to do with regards backing him for a particular race!!

Yes very good point Duffy. And fair play, you've always thought this race so good shout!

duffy = completely agree - so often i have seen presenters start another conversation just as the cameras stop rolling - LH is ALWAYS doing this - incredibly frustrating considering how much we all pay for RUK - absolute rubbish about not having time - i think we all know the real motive - which i completely understand but it leaves a sour taste in my mouth

KV in my view is a better horse than Pont or Shaneshill.
Surely Ruby will ride KV wherever he ends up.

Miltons, RUK is £23 p/month or google "Cric Free TV" and there is the live stream on there for free. Just watch it in Firefox and install "Adblock Plus" to get rid of the popups. There are loads of YouTube videos on how to do this and save yourself almost £300 a year.

wellchief - ty sir youre a gent

As someone who is quite savvy about downloading films etc i never did know that chief, thanks a lot your a gent sir [:handshake:]

KV will out jump and out stay Shaneshill in the JLT and most likely be the 'fav' on the day I think provided L'Ami Serge (classy) runs in the Arkle.

It seems like people are maybe dismissing roi des francs too easily and writing PA off as he's not got past him. RDF has done very little wrong and it's only match fitness that would have stopped him being 3 from 3 chasing as Monksland had already ran this season when they met. Noble endavour has done that form no harm on boxing day and although it's 2nd tier novice form, RDF is improving and we know giggi are often ultra patient with these types. He's in a strong division and will have plenty from the same yard and ownership more fancied but he'll be overlooked and possibly big value come the day at whatever spring festival he goes to.

No worries STS, Miltons.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6kyM2vwJCg

The link above shows how you can simply remove all ads on the site, and Adblock Plus is just an extension in Firefox.  I've been using it for months without problems - I'm looking forward to watching RUK for the Festival as I've only ever seen CH4's.

Agree with you Benkneale; RDF is no mug and Mullins thinks PA will come on more for the run.  I'd say it's 50/50 over where Blercules or Ponte goes the 4 miler and RSA.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vXisGGOtbM

You'll need that one as well sorry

yay i got racing uk hehe cheers chief

Though i do have a line right across the screen saying to get a crisper picture and fullscreen to disable adblocker

The second Youtube clip shows how to get rid of that mate.  Just need something called "Easylist" within Adblocker.

select "don't run on this page" and there's only few x's you need to click to close those adds.

on Chrome the EasyList filter doesn't seem to work @wellchief, I don't know of any workaround unless manually closing the ads

I've only ever used Firefox sorry mate. 

Once Adblock Plus is installed and once "EasyList without element hiding" has been downloaded from here > https://easylist.adblockplus.org/en/ and activated in the preferences are of ABP, no ads ever appear on the site.

It does work mate, ive just sorted mine and i am on chrome, though the picture is a little fuzzy its crisper, but what you expect for free eh lol.



Disable EASYLIST

THEN

TICK ALLOW SOME NON INTRUSIVE ADVERTISING

Close browser completely then reopen, works a treat

My post is for chrome browser

Now back to working out how the feck to get trial of malwarebytes again and again, my method used to work but not no more

cheers STS I've tried that now but I still get "DISABLE ADS BLOCKER and REFRESH Page".. anyway I've been doing it manually for so long I know blindfolded where the x's are I would switch to FF but its so sloow vs Chrome..

15:30 Leopardstown
Sun 17 Jan 2m3f Grd3 Nov Chs runs today

KILLULTAGH VIC was impressive in making a winning chase debut at Fairyhouse last month, and with the prospect of better still highly-likely in this sphere, he gets the nod for his powerful yard. Lord Scoundrel can provide the chief threat for the forecast.

Got my Blinkers on over this horse for JLT hoping for a good run today hoping to have him and sizling running for me come march , did me favours last year the way im reading it connections probably betting it for this race considering Shaneshill in the same yard id say they were confident enough and that will do me

1,27 on bf

Ive never backed horses at them prices a fall , blood vessell , mistake at cruicial point brave punter to back at those prices im happy with the antepost

yes i agree moat

omgodnes what a ride from ruby gone at the last amazing  too much sing for the ground says fitzgerald

ruby likes him reckons the bookies have underestimated it

JLT all the way fill your boots

lol what a recovery...

You couldn't argue with that.

into 5/1

Joke of a race,did that at the last and still won!!

Hes a good horse though,just which race at the festival.

Sounds like JLT at the moment

not cut and dried though

All the 5's gone now. General 7-2 chance. Still 9-2 with Betnoway for anyone who can get on with them!

Unusual for Ruby and Willie to both say JLT so quickly after the race. I guess that ties in with the avalanche of money all this week

Just laid half my 23.5 off at 16.0 for rsa. I'll hold my hands up and say he's likely jlt now. Glad I went back in large a couple of weeks ago with 10s any race.  Wherever he goes now, I'm happy.

is now the fav

I guess it makes sense,never been 3 miles.
did not see interviews....weren't expecting a firm decision this early from that lot!!

looked to have a lot of pace

Scoobie id say youve played that almost perfect

delsie777 even I cannot get on weth betnoway, now thats saying something

If he goes jlt which looks likely. Leaves me with        5pts kilultagh vic 10/1       2pts Shaneshill 17.5 and 3pts shaneshill 8s any race. 1pt Outlander 32.0  0.5 pts abre de vie 88.0  and 0.25 pts abre de vie 44.0.    Lost 1pt alvisio ville 25/1.

Would want confirmation that he is fully OK tomorrow before going in at these prices now.  Could easily have tweaked something with that mistake and recovery.  Hope he's OK.

the credits would've rolled on if it hadn't been a soft ground to attenuate the impact. He wouldn't have been able to keep on going for a furlong if something was wrong, so hopefully nothing appears tomorrow.

Betnoway now 4's - someone must have got a fiver on at that 9-2!

some of these firms, even the big ones how do they continue to pretend thy're bookies instead of taking a casino license and stop occupy so much space on the oddschecker page.

some  fast pics layers got severly burned on that in running went to 1000 just after it jumped the last £845 mtched at 1,000 cliff jumping time for someone

Ruby Walsh, ATR interview: "He won the Martin Pipe and over 3 miles, so the 2m 5f will suit him perfectly... Glad I don't have to choose between him and Douvan anyway"

Unbelievable from Ruby. But I am personally a bit worried he will have picked up a minor injury there. I also think he's a bad price now. Don't think he should be shorter than Shaneshill myself.

As an ante post backer of KV at 14/1 I find it hard to fathom the shortening of the horse into 4s best price for the JLT. In a poor race he was likely going to win by 6-7l unextended before the final fence mishap. The fact that he potentially could have picked up an injury today and that his Cheltenham target is not even known yet makes the price cut even more ridiculous.

I cna understand the price. Looking at the market there are very few potential rivals and throw in the Mullins/Ruby factor and I wouldn;'t wnat to lay bigger than 4/1.

Garde Victoire and Sizing John have the Arkle option though would be interestingrivals if they switch to the JLT.

Assuming they are fit and well I can't believe Ruby won't pick KV rather than Shaneshill. In fact they ran Shaneshill against Douvan last year and I wouldn 't be surprised if they do the same again - a decent second string if anything goes wrong for Douvan and if not then finishing 2nd in the Arkle didn't do Kicking King or Cue Card any harm.

Absolutely no chance Wylie will be running Shaneshill against Douvan in the Arkle imo. Think he will be more than happy to taken KV on again though.

Beat him in the both Bumpers (Chelts and Punch), and the fact he started 11-8 versus KV at 8-1 when hey ran at Punch tells you everything about what the yard thought.... Shaneshill ran a fine race but patently didnt stay the 3m. The JLT looks tailor made for him.

The JLT is the only race for Shaneshill unless its trainer waits for Aintree.

Having finished second at two festivals already, that seems highly unlikely as well impossible.

CCM

Agree, but great shame.....not quick enough for 16f and stamina limitation over 24f; it should have 'won' the Neptune last season if taken part, now the JLT is its best chance of winning in the festival.

KV shortening again today, so presumably no injuries after his final fence blunder yesterday and I'd imagine if he goes straight to the festival from here then its the JLT that he lines up in.

Looks that way trigger. Happy with the 14/1 but really cannot believe the price of him now!

Do we all think its a certainty that Ruby picks him over Shaneshill?

Willie Mullins
‏@WillieMullinsNH Willie Mullins
I'm happy to report that #KillultaghVic seems absolutely fine after his little speed wobble @LeopardstownRC

Can't Catch Me
     18 Jan 16 13:58
Looks that way trigger. Happy with the 14/1 but really cannot believe the price of him now!

Do we all think its a certainty that Ruby picks him over Shaneshill? 


when he says things like...glad I don't have to pick between him (KV) and Douvan...it suggests so.

Agree, quite often you have to read between the lines with the Walsh/Mullins axis. I'd say it was as much Walsh and Mullins comments after the race that caused the shortening as the actual performance itself. That combined with the dramatic nature of its win means that the horse is now no longer under the radar. By the sounds of it, if it was Ruby's choice he would ride KV, but I don't think anything is cast in stone yet.

It does suggest so Duffy. But I think they rate Shaneshill highly and Wylie is a very big owner for them so don't think it's a total shoo in.

Good point, hadn't considered that at all the Wylie thing, they'll have to between them (mullins and walsh) some guff about (and using yesterday's mishap as weight to the argument) KV needing more careful handling with regards to his potential over-jumping whereas they can attempt to butter up Wylie with tales of Shaneshill being wonderfully straight forward that could be ridden to equal effect by anyone.

Ah lads come on, you honestly think Ruby will pick Shaneshill to appease Wylie? Ruby is in it to win it. On Saturday he rode against Ricci's horse Kalkir ( antepost gamble) in the big handicap on a horse of similar form. His loyalties lie very close to home.

At the moment KV looks the better horse. imo.

Shaneshill was definitely the better of the two in bumpers, and probably the better of the two over hurdles, but he just hasn't really impressed over fences yet and certainly hasn't looked a natural.

It may simply be that KV is a better chaser than Shaneshill. It's difficult to tell from the TV, but KV looks to have more range and scope than Shaneshill.

As I posted on the other thread, I just don't understand why Shaneshill is getting stick for his jumping. Jumped beautifully on debut and only made one mistake at the second last, which then affected his confidence coming to the last, last time. Still won easily enough. KV made a bad mistake but that isn't being mentioned?

I think Shaneshill was always a Chaser in the making and whatever he did in Bumpers and over Hurdles was always a bonus. He's definitely being under rated for me now. His cause form also looks much better quality than KV's to me.

See, I wasn't overly impressed with his debut CCM. Thought he looked alright but nothing more.

I'm a big fan of the horse and am firmly in the camp that he probably would have won the Neptune had he run in it.

I think it is very difficult to compare them based on chase form.

Both have had easy races on paper, and both have been impressive in very different ways imo.  KV seems a lot more flashy, putting huge leaps in, and tanking along on the bridle.  Shaneshill has gone about his business in a much more quiet and efficient, but equally impressive  way; he's never been a flashy horse (he's Ireland's Garde La Victoire!)

Two completely different horses.  You could make a case for either; L'ami Serge would be the main danger imo, and potentially better than both of them, but for my wallet, I really need him in the Arkle!

Me too chief. Decent bets on Serge for the Arkle and both Shaneshill and KV for the JLT. Serge winning the JLT would mean he would no longer be a friend of mine!

Think you are harder to please than me then Tory! Good comparison with GLV chief, that's exactly what he is. My only worry with him is that he might be a bit one paced, his jumping just isn't even on my mind as an issue. I think he's one of the best novices about I that dept.

Willie will likely leave one of his good 2.5m novices at home for the Powers Gold Cup ten days after Cheltenham - possibly Outlander ?

KV way too short now have backed him at bigger odds,but Shaneshill should be Fav imo.

People still go on a bit about what Ruby might ride. Wrt riding arrangements at Cheltenham is simple - Ruby will want to ride the best horse AND WM will also want Ruby on the best horse ie the horse with the best chance of winning and he, WM, made a reference to that a few weeks back but it was misconstrued by some.

Misses festival according to RP

Yep,injured

If you could get NRNB, I would be all over MoT for this now.

Blows the race wide apart.  Of the likely runners, I'd normally go straight to Shaneshill, but his run last time was too bad to be true.  If he had missed the Donny race, he'd be a short price fav in this now.

I wouldn't be surprised if they had a change of heart with Vaniuteux to split him and L'Ami; this looks a much more winnable race now.

Sad thing is I put up Outlander at 25's in the Shaneshill thread ages ago, but as I was sitting pretty on a KV voucher, I didn't take the insurance

LS and V are both Arkle horses,have been all season Chief.
Don't see why that should change now with or without KV.

I agree with bud. Think Serge would be the most likely to switch to the JLT as Vaniteux looks like he barely gets 2m, never mind further, but with the owners having Bristol de Mai, that just won't happen.

Still think Shaneshill can run a big race myself. He's got a fine record at the Festival.

Just with last time the jockey saying he was took off his feet at the start at Doncaster, and they did say he'd get further after his first win.

I still expect him to line up in the Arkle, but the JLT looks a lot easier than it did an hour ago, with the trainer having nothing in it, but two against a really good one in the Arkle.

Wc. I agree NJH would be keen on the idea, but don't think either of his owners will be!

After Kempton debut:

"He will get further but doesn't need it as he has got plenty of gears"

After Doncaster:

De Boinville said: "He's a very nice horse. He was slightly taken off his feet early but we went a really good clip and it was a strong trial.

Just food for thought.  And yes, CCM, because the owner has BDM, Vaniteux would be the one to switch.  Again, not saying he will, but you can't rule anything out.

Do you think Vaniteux gets further though mate? I don't think he does myself.

Either that or he's too slow for an Arkle

I don't think he was stopping at the end of Doncaster anyway.  I could never fancy a horse for an Arkle when he is taken off his feet in a trial - reminds me of Al Ferof where it all went to quick for him.

Nor do I.

To be honest KV is no horse to avoid anyway, hardly a superstar.

Al Ferof was in the lead,Ruby for some reason thought it was the way to go,although but for the error we will never know if it would have worked.

Ruby needed to use AF's stamina in the Arkle because he knew he wouldn't have the speed to live with Sprinter and Cue Card.

Anyway, that's digging up old arguments, but if a jockey says Shaneshill and Arzal are taking Vaniteux off his feet, he'll get well outpaced against Douvan, and if L'ami Serge turns up.

Killultagh Vic is no superstar but he was on a very big upward curve, and no doubt the number 1 Mullins horse in the race.

Ruby cocked up(imo).......but as you say digging up old arguments.

Just run the 2 milers in the 2m race.
LS could get further,but BDM stops him doing that.

I'd go RSA with BDM, reckon the likely better ground may well get him outpaced JLT, L'ami would be JLT bound for me, keep coming back to that interview from a couple weeks back, looked like they were looking for excuses then "shame he's around at the same time as Douvan".

It sounded that they were already resigned to being defeated by Douvan, BDM has made it awkward, but, Van in the Arkle, L'ami in the JLT and BDM in the RSA, sounds better than Van and L'ami in the Arkle and BDM in the JLT, IMO.

The trainers are playing their cards very close to their chest eg NMH, MTOY, LS, etc; if something is amiss with either of the Dons NMH could be rerouted to the CGC, if not, MTOY could go for the JLT - if still without a prep - to avoid NMH; if ground is very soft, BDM to the Arkle and LS to JLT, but unlikely BDM will be sacrificed for the RSA against NMH.

So, LS could be crossing sword with MTOY and BDM with Douvan.

impossible you really are, erm impossible to understand.

MTOY after all this time off all of a sudden appears in the JLT

Someone please explain why that is so wrong and not going to happen unless there has been something ive missed e.g henderson as said somewhere hes been schooling over fences which i just can't see happening myself

I presume you mean My Tent or Yours Over fences Seriously

Take the Y out and switch the T & O around.

I'm struggling with this - Vaniteux is n't in the same ownership as BDM and L'Ami Serge but Vyta Du Roc is - and has three entries over the weekend in novice and graduation chases at around 3 miles.

Nothing ever seems set in tablets of stone (unless you're Ed Miliband) but if everything goes to plan at the w/e, it should be L'Ami Serge (Arkle), BDM (JLT) and Vyta Du Roc (RSA) for the Munir & Sude horses - Vaniteux would surely only be a consideration if NJH tells M&S that he will smash L'Ami Serge.

BDM is only 5 and would get just 1lb from the older horses in the RSA which can be a brutal race.

Obviously I reserve the right to change my mind.

STS

Sorry, I meant MOT.