Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
11 Jan 16
19:58
Joined:
Date Joined:
02 Apr 03
Anyone any strong feelings on which race this horse will go for? I'm going to overlook the fact he has an entry in the Irish Arkle as Im convinced he won't go back to 2m at Cheltenham.
It looks a shootout between the JLT and the RSA.... But looks genuinely impossible to guess at this stage. Initially I felt the RSA was most likely as he has already won well over 3m over hurdles. But considering NMH and MoT look formidable opponents in that race, maybe they will decide against it?
JLT certainly looks the weaker race of the two and if anything I'm now leaning towards this as his most likely destination. If so 14/1 could look a very big price.
It looks a shootout between the JLT and the RSA.... But looks genuinely impossible to guess at this stage. Initially I felt the RSA was most likely as he has already won well over 3m over hurdles. But considering NMH and MoT look formidable opponents in that race, maybe they will decide against it?
JLT certainly looks the weaker race of the two and if anything I'm now leaning towards this as his most likely destination. If so 14/1 could look a very big price.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 149
|
By:
Backed him @ 20/1 for RSA then been nibbling the 10/1 win any race with HIlls but it's now 8/1. I thought he was nailed on RSA but the JLT looks a whole lot easier now. Also JLT could have a big decent field trying to dodge Douvan in the Arkle. He beat the World Hurdle favourite over 3mile and I still think NMH and MOT are vulnerable, I would go RSA.
|
|
By:
I have a fair bet at 16/1 for rsa and a huge bet at 10/1 any race. I thought rsa was a certainty at start of the season with a slight worry over the nh chase.
I'd be 75% rsa 25% jlt. All over him to win at cheltenham though and his debut win over 2 miles and everything in his breeding suggests an improvement over fences. |
|
By:
I have a fair bet at 16/1 for rsa and a huge bet at 10/1 any race. I thought rsa was a certainty at start of the season with a slight worry over the nh chase.
I'd be 75% rsa 25% jlt. All over him to win at cheltenham though and his debut win over 2 miles and everything in his breeding suggests an improvement over fences. |
|
By:
This could come down Ruby's availability and most importantly, where Pont Alexandre runs. You would think Ruby would currently ride the following horses:
Arkle - Douvan JLT - Shaneshill RSA - Pont Alexandre I'm not saying these would be th best choices in each race but just the most likely that Ruby will go for. If Pont Alexandre gets rerouted to the 4 miler then KV would no doubt be their runner in the RSA with Ruby riding. If Pont Alexandre does go for the RSA then it leaves KV with second string jockey and possibly a choice where they run. Personally if I owned the horse and did not have Ruby riding I would go for the JLT. It's the weaker race and KV has more than enough speed for it too. |
|
By:
Think that assessment is spot on Jackie and moreorless what I posted in the Shaneshill thread.
Although I think he would really struggle to decide between KV and PA if they chose RSA for them both. |
|
By:
I think pa will get found out before the festival as long as something else turns up in his next race. Willies the master at placing them to make sure that's not the case though
|
|
By:
Pont Alexandre will not be winning any festival race, I think Killultagh Vic is excellent value if we knew what race he was running in. Anyone on at 10s any race is on a value bet imo. I backed him RSA at 14s but I'm aware there is no guarantee that he will line up. If he does I can see him going off at less than half that price. His Punchestown/Cheltenham form on Spring ground is excellent and the fact that he has been lightly campaigned has meant he has slipped slightly under the radar.
|
|
By:
Spot on trigger - 10/1 any race is value IMO.
|
|
By:
It's a good analysis Jackie but not convinced yet Ruby would definitely choose PA over KV in RSA. PA has had his problems and in addition is not the best traveller.
|
|
By:
Entries close for a 2m 5f Graded novice chase at Leopardstown tomorrow which is 3 weeks before the big 2m 5f Grade 1 chase also at Leopardstown - I would expect Killultagh Vic to go this route en route to the RSA. There is also a 3m novice chase at Naas this weekend where I would expect one of those entered at Warwick namely Roi des France , Black Hercules or Pont Alexandre to go. If KV misses both races , he will probably turn up in the Arkle on 24 Jan and it would be hard to envisage him going RSA in that eventuality.
|
|
By:
Pont Alexander will bomb out just like sir des champs did lto big bounce
|
|
By:
CCM
How come you've changed your mind from this only a couple of days ago, have you heard something? Can't Catch Me 08 Jan 16 20:54 Why do you feel so sure he will go for that race Duffy? Considering WPM has Shaneshill, who looks a very worthy fav, and only Pont Alexandre, who has plenty of question marks, potentially going for the RSA? I reckon Killultagh will be their first pick RSA horse for Ruby to ride. duffy 08 Jan 16 21:03 They started him over 2 and he's got an entry in the Irish Arkle. don't think he'll run in it but it just perhaps shows their thinking. He's going to have one more run before the festival so where is the 2.4/3 mile run too....I hope he does go RSA as I've backed him for that one and not the JLT yet...but am seriously tempted now. I love him and would have him 1st choice for either race. |
|
By:
Just looking st the entries Duffy. I think the RSA is the best race for the horse on trip, but NMH and MOT are two class acts. Shaneshill aside, the JLT looks a bit easier.
Plus WPM said something along the lines of 3m hurdles can often drop back in trip easily which I thought was interesting. |
|
By:
My money is on the JLT as it is easier as the jumping of the present 'fav' is suspect and trip right on the limit; the RSA is much tougher with the two main 'classy' protagonist, in my view.
|
|
By:
I'll be honest though Duffy. I am changing my mind on a daily basis
 |
|
By:
Impossible. I don't think Shaneshill's jumping is 'suspect'. Not foot perfect, but perfectly fine overall imo.
I suppose the other thing WPM has to think about is keeping Wylie happy. Shaneshill looks easily his best chance of a winner and that might be in his mind when picking a race for KV! Especially if Ruby wants to ride the latter |
|
By:
CCM
I hope WPM does not do to the owner of KV what he did to the owner of Shaneshill regards last year's Neptune ie by running Nichols Canyon (NC) instead of the proven Shaneshill - the current campaign for NC is testament! I think WPM ought to consider more 'forays' over this way rather than staying in Ireland with his many charges where there are limited races to go for, and not just the occasional valuable ones to suit himself. |
|
By:
Totally agree impossible, but I reckon he might! As unfair as it is on the smaller owners in the yard, they have to accept that's the case when with a stable like WPM. RR is first priority and Wyle is probably second.
It probably all hinges on Pont Alexandre. If he's going for the RSA and in fine form and Ruby picks him then it's probably KV for the JLT unde Townend. If PA disappoints next time, then maybe KV RSA with Ruby on him. I think WPM knows a lot more than he lets on about horses targets, but I do think this feels is one of the biggest imponderables. And they probably don't know themselves yet. |
|
By:
I understand the job of WPM requires him to be as diplomatic as possible with owners nevertheless the 'owner' must have the final say especially experienced and sport savvy ones. For instance, Gigginstown, the owner of DP, DC, RTR, and many others - they tell their trainers what races to go for based of known info eg forms.
I think KV stands a better winning chance if heading for the JLT even if L'Ami Serge is diverted there at the last minute to avoid Douvan if 16f is deemed too sharp for him. |
|
By:
Can't see L'Ami Serge switching mate. NJH has said he will keep him at 2m countless times.... and said it again this morning in regards to his next target
|
|
By:
CCM
Did he, this morning? I sincerely hope hope - its price is too generous, and the market here is telling a different story. Glad to be proven wrong if so. |
|
By:
Either this morning or yesterday, as per the other thread on the antepost forum.
|
|
By:
Why would you say the market on here tells a different story? Only £700 in total matched on him for the JLT and buttons waiting to be backed? Been solid at 10 for the Arkle for a few days?
|
|
By:
CCM
The price of L'Ami Serge ought to be shorter than its stable mate being an unlucky 4th in last year's Supreme and despite its late start campaign over fences; the regular amounts (£100s, large for here) consistently and readily available is a concern, if one is a backer; its price is about the same for the JLT too with other big off-line bookies. |
|
By:
I don't think their flat form should have too much bearing on their respective prices for these races tbh. Vaniteux was still a pretty high class hurdler anyway. I think l'Ami Serge is a bigger price just because he hasn't had the chance to do much yet. We learnt next to nothing at Plumpton. Whereas Vaniteux jumped superbly on debut at Kempton stuffing a reasonable horse out of sight, then only went down by a neck in a Grade 2 to another potentially top class two mile specialist.
On the balance of what they've achieved over fences Vaniteux should really be a bit shorter. But l'Ami Serge's reputation seems to be the reason they are comparable in the market. If he wins his next race easily, I think he will then shorten to 6-1 or thereabouts. |
|
By:
CCM
I hope you are correct - the 8/1 offer for a run at the Festival could be the way forward. |
|
By:
Yes good point mate.... not much difference from the best price in either race there anyway.
I've staked all I want on him at 14/1 for the Arkle though so leaving him alone from here. Just keeping everything crossed NJH doesnt turn me over now! |
|
By:
KV into 8/1 with PP for the JLT, and they have pushed out Pont Alex for the 4 miler...
|
|
By:
17th January alongside stable mate back hercules in a 2m3 grade 2 novice chase at leopardstown. looks a fair test with the likes of velvet maker, zabana and walk to freedom. Will have a decent form line through to shaneshill and pont alexandre, with the 2nd behind pont, balbir du mathan getting a thorough beating by zabana and walk to freedom finishing behind outlander and shaneshill and is a fair consistent horse in his own right. Interesting to see they're stepping the velvet maker up in trip, as connections were all over him for the arkle. One of many who will be scared away by douvan.
Hope kilultagh vic is the chosen one of the 2 and i expect a very big run from him. |
|
By:
I'm tempted to go for the 14/1 in the JLT myself.
Just rewatched his Punchestown race, and turning for home you'd think he was going to win by about 6 lengths, but was absolutely all out to hold on from Thistlecrack who'd been under pressure for a lot longer. Looking at that, couple with all his other runs had been over 2m or 2m4, I think it would be a big ask to win an RSA in a tough looking race. No brainer JLT for me. Reminds me off Sir Des Champs - he won the Martin Pipe off 134 by half a length (KV won it off 135 by a head), and then campaigned over intermediate trips, eding in the JLT/Jewson victory. |
|
By:
Ccm
Half the story regarding pont.they pushed out black hercules too |
|
By:
Yep I've come round to that point of view as well chief. Backed him at 14/1 this morning. Bit gutted as have a decent bet on Shaneshill and this fella would worry me the most.
|
|
By:
Scooby. BH still not top price with them though, whereas PA now is.
|
|
By:
C'mon scoob buddy - you know Pont is heading RSA! Just 2 years later than planned!
|
|
By:
I know he's not the best horse in the world but I can't believe that rois des francs is 320.0 for the rsa, granted I'm reading alot into it which may not be there. But maybe some one knows he's going for the nh chase.
Just out of interest who lays horses at that sort of price who are unlikely winners but not injured and possible runners?? Stating the obvious but A £10 bet ties up over £3000 for the layer |
|
By:
Perhaps the O'Learys have said he's a definite runner scoob?
 |
|
By:
As I envisaged , KV is entered in the 2m 3f novice at Leop next Sunday along with Black Hercules and I would expect KV to run here. I thought that he would then go on for the big G1 2M 5F novice in mid Feb en route to the RSA .There are however some fascinating trainer trends re WPM in relation to horses who run at Leop next weekend and where they go subsequently. I should mention that this novice chase has been run over 2m 5f for the last few years until last year when it was run over 2m 3F and also that its timing has traditionally been around 6 weeks before Chelt and not over 8 weeks like this year. That said , these are the horses Willie has run in the race in the last 4 years with reference to their number of runs over fences and where they subsequently ran
2015 - VAUTOUR - 3rd chase run - straight to JLT 2014 - DJAKADAM - 2nd chase run , straight to JLT 2013 - MARITO - 3rd chase run , straight to JLT 2012 - SIR DES CHAMPS - 3rd chase run , straight to JLT Let's just say that if KV runs in this race on Sunday , my confidence he will be RSA bound will wane ! The only caveat to that would be that KV , were he to run here on Sunday and go straight to Cheltenham would only have 2 novice runs in going there and that lack of experience didnt avail Djakadam who fell in the JLT , also , there is time with an eight week gap this year for a novice to get another run in three weeks time in the PJ Moriarty G1 . The history of WPM horses who run in the Moriarty is also illuminating 2011 - Ran Mikael D'Hag and Quel Esprit - both went to RSA 2012 - Ran Call the Police and Lambro - both went to RSA 2013 - Ran Boston Bob - went to RSA 2014 - Ran Ballycasey - went to RSA 2015 - Ran Valseur Lido and Adriana des Mottes - Valseur went to JLT , Adriana to RSA ( Don Poli in same colours presumably the reason Valseur didnt go to RSA ) These are compelling trends that somewhat give the lie to the suggestion that WPM is unpredictable and liable to do anything and one can certainly see why KV 's odds have been cut today for the JLT . That said , given what happened Djakadam , I would still not be surprised if KV shows up in both Leopardstown races which will then set trends followers a quandry ! Declaration of interest - I have backed KV at 25s for the RSA six months ago but I have now taken insurance at 14s for the JLT |
|
By:
Very interesting trends there SM, thanks for sharing that. I too took out insurance on the JLT today although I'd still prefer to see him take his chance in the RSA.
|
|
By:
yes nice stats for WPM novice chases targets. I have KV for JLT in a bunch of accums, so based on the above I hope to see him this Sunday!
 |