Cheltenham Festival
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My tent or yours
My tent or yours
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This Saturday will tell you if he's learned to settle. I think Faugheen's untouchable but 10/1 w/o him is a very fair EW bet if you believe he's retained all his ability. Could get the win but will pay down to 4th for EW.
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If hes as good as he was,hes at least 2nd best horse in the race imo.
If he settles he can challenge the fav. No horse is untouchable Shock,especially when jumping is involved. |
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In terms of all known form Budd then IMO Faugheen is untouchable but agree your point as accidents happen. However, I think in the W/O market you have still a price that's worth taking and obviously far more achievable.
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Fair point mate.
Oh I know hes up against a real goodun. Tent at his best is capable of getting any horse to work though imo. Once they start working anything can happen. I really hope he turns up in rude health,for the race as well as my pocket!! |
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I agree we want all the top horses at Cheltenham ready to run their best. Still think TNO is the equal to MTOY. Pocket maybe talking though.
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nervous Nicky already fretting about the ground for MTOY at the we/e
http://www.attheraces.com/news/latest-news/nicky-henderson-left-full-of-sympathy-for-faugheen-camp-after-injury-heartbreak Surely he would n't send him to CH without a run in 2 years, would he? |
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He won't now. He'll send him on a skateboard now if he has to.
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Backed MTOY back in November, starting to get quietly confident now :)
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Judging by the betting on here for the Kingwell it doesn't look like he will be running on Saturday, surely he would be closer to evs and not 2.74
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STS
For a horse coming back like tent is then Irving provides decent enough opposition to hold him up in the market, if you're taking for granted he retains all of his ability then it's big, but plenty won't take that for granted, for the record I'm with you, big price, but I love the horse and want him to be as good as he was, the recent gallop with Hargam only fuels that.  |
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Indeed there is a lot of MTOY
 love on here for sure, i am one of them too but seeing him in the market at that price when he is and being matched at 11.5 for a churdle is making me think he wont be running on Sat  I so hope i am wrong, and if anywhere near 7/4 i will most certainly be a player |
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I will be astonished if this shows on Saturday given that my teaser of £2 at 10 has just been matched, put up 55 but have been laying at 3 - 3.5 also.
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Not running on Saturday as the ground at Wincanton is too testing.
Can't see how it can win the Champion Hurdle on the back of 2 years without a race. Big leap of faith needed for backers IMO. |
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couldn't win an open renewal of a perfect prep, cant see why people are latching onto him now....
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Maybe an outing on the all weather soon?
He ran in those jumpers bumpers, but I think they were only on when loads of meetings were abandoned a few years ago. |
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I hope so wellchief. He ran Sign of a Victory on the all weather earlier this season too. Sending him to the Champion Hurdle after two years without a run would be plain daft.
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Really gone off Henderson as a trainer the last couple of seasons. Shoot me down but he's got problems, it might sound daft as he's trained some greats but he's a bit over the top with the ground issues, on top of the fact he struggles to train horses to settle.
It's never ideal to run on bad ground with a good horse, but this is national hunt racing. With climate change taking more of an effect than ever he ought to get used to worse and worse ground each winter. They way he puts his horses in their boxes all year round is there any point in him being a jumps trainer? People go on about Mullins but I've had enough of Henderson myself. At least Mullins will actually run his horses, even if it's not always in the race we want. Love MTOY but couldn't have him off the back of an all weather run. That's not a champion hurdle prep after nearly two years out. |
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One thing I can't understand of Hendo is he said he build all those facilities with soft going so he can get his horses run as well on that ground but now he's not running his best chance in the CH due to unsuitable ground. Even if MTOY ran and got beat tomorrow he would still have more chances than going directly for the CH. The work he did with Hargam was nothing, they just cantered around and didn't reached max speed to test him out properly because they had Kingwell to worry about and now he's not running...
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Totally disagree, MTOY not running in my opinion on that sort of ground is a blessing. I am more confident of my bet than i was before. There is the ground issue but then again there is the dreaded bounce factor as well. A nice little away day in the next couple of weeks and we will see a fresh MTOY lining up in the biggest race for 2 mile hurdlers.
As for climate change, i don't subscribe to that governments G20 reasons to tax more carp and never will |
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Don't see the point running mtoy in that after a lengthy absence. I think they should see if there's an a/w race for him on the flats.
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An article tucked away in one of the papers a few weeks back stated that for all the ice melting in the arctic there is 100's of times that in another part of the arctic forming, something like that anyhow, it didn't get the publicity because it didn't support the "end of the world" scenario.
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The jumpers bumper run may have been OK in 2014 but The Tent was already race fit having had 2 proper races earlier that season. It would be the training performance of the century to get him to win a Champion with that kind of prep after a near 2 year lay off. Very little chance for me, he needs an actual race.
As for climate change, i don't subscribe to that governments G20 reasons to tax more carp and never will More fool you then. The status quo are doing the complete opposite and trying to ignore climate change, as wrecking the planet is good for big business and profit. It's a simple fact and backed up by more than the overwhelming majority of elite scientists. I would have thought the Cumbria floods would have made some wake up but clearly most still have no idea what is going on. |
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Pretty left field, but they can always throw him in the Imperial Cup - not really to win it, but to give him a run out and get him jumping some hurdles, and let him come home in his own time, probably in mid field somewhere. I know Wicklow Brave ran no sort of race in it last year, but he went on to win the following week.
They ran him in the Scottish Champion Hurdle off 168, where he put 8 out of his 10 rivals out of the handicap. Doesn't necesarily have to be the Imperial Cup, that's the only fast paced 2m handicap I think of off the top of my head, and I know they'd want to run him ASAP rather than a week before, but I wouldn't rule out the handicap possibility, especially as he is now 7lbs less than last time he ran in one. |
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Henderson just said he's going to have another race course galop with hargam next week
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Don't want to turn this into a climate change thread but it really is bollox! What scientists are saying all of this carp? Thats right, government backed. And duffy is right, all the stuff that gets published that counters any argument or so called evidence of climate change gets pushed away and ignored. Coincidence
If your going to blame the recent floods on climate change as well mate, you need to do some homework on water ways, how our government has created, changed, cut funding of our environment agency and what effect the European union has had on this subject too. Yes records of rainfall has been broken but at the end of the day, records are there to be broken. When the first records were published in the 1700s, when they were repeatedly broken in 1800s and early 1900s did they blame that on climate change? No! I rest my case! Climate change eh?  |
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@STS climate change is real when in the last 30 years the average global temperature have raised with 1-2 Celsius degrees. That doesn't mean that its hot everywhere, it means that the weather changes dramatically in a short space of time, you can have winter and the next week summer temperatures. The climate is simply turning into chaos, the drought are much longer in some parts of the world, while in others the rain never stops for weeks, extreme weather incidents happen frequently, etc. By 2050 there won't be any big glaciers left because they're not forming elsewhere, they're simply melting. You should watch Al Gore documentary from 10 years ago.
Back on topic, MTOY could have 10 gallops, they need real competition to get him into racing mode and prepare him for CH, I'm not saying it'll hurt his chances but it won't be of much help. Much better to run him tomorrow and have enough time to recover for the champion, its soft ground for Gods sake, its not heavy sticky conditions, he would've been just fine on it and its not like the flat when the horse is potentially affecting his future stallion fee. |
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Turning into a joke now, Henderson. Enters the horse on Monday knowing the state of the ground and the weather forecast. The ground is now soft (heavy in places) and he still won't run. Was he hoping for good ground? Deluded.
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not helpful for BJG either - if I were him I'd choose Hargam but the jockey arrangement for the recent racecourse gallop suggests he'll go MTOY surely.
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Sorry TT totally disagree. Just a real shame imo that the G20 nations and their payrolled scientists have convinced so many.
I apologise this has gone completely off topic but feel i need to put this. I merely go on my own experiences with weather, all through my life at least the weather has done exactly what you explained above. Since records started it has. One year many feet of snow, next year many inches of rain and so on, doesn't mean climate change. It is a big combined effort for the worlds richest nations to come together to raise tax and keep fuel prices artificially high even when the global wholesale prices are so low! A tax! As for recent weather events, it was only a couple of years ago we had our driest winter on record, it was only about 10 years ago we were officially in drought! Yeah, we're in climate change of course we are .There is one thing however i do believe in and i know this as i have done a basic meteorological course in my teens at college during a course that was supposed to send me to sea in the merchant navy and that is that advances in technology have meant that it has become far easier but at the same time far more complicated to predict out weather. Knowing about the upper atmosphere and the ribbon of air that is called the jet stream has enhanced weather prediction no end. This stream moves up and down our part of the globe in approx' 5-10 year cycles. It is of no coincidence to me that we experienced years of drought during the late 90s early noughties and we are now experiencing big rainfalls. The planets average temperature fluctuates between an average of 1-2 degrees every 1000 years or so, as our records only started approx 300 years ago there is no way of knowing what the planets average temp was back in them years apart from best guesses from said scientists who dig down deep into the planets crust. I could go on but am way off topic as said before so leaving it at that. Sorry people it does get boring but i know my stuff and i am very critical of said subject and feel quite strongly |
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Not boring at all, STS.
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Am I right in thinking MTOY will be ridden in the citation bit in the CH?
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the average global temperature has gone up with 2 degrees only in the last 30, never mind the natural state of earth, this is human made. I don't think there's any scientist out there that believes the climate change isn't happening. Do you know how China looks like in a normal day @sts? its basically fog due to so much pollution and the CO2 emissions levels are extraordinary. The atmosphere is boiling and it creates unstable weather conditions. There is already a functional 100% green energy generator in france capable of supporting a city with 100k population, the only reason green energy providers haven't made it is because the dirty petrol corporations still have trillions of dollars profit to make out of that market. the CO2 pollution rate needed to be stopped 50 years ago in order for future generations to escape whats coming.
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We didn't have the technology 30 years ago to accurately predict the average global temperature timtin. It was only 10 years ago scientists were still using temperature, wind and rainfall gauges installed inside wooden boxes, it kind of used the same kind of method they use to measure earthquakes, a seismograph type thing, and these were in loads of different locations all over the globe to try to measure it!
The reason why so many scientists are now going along with it is because it is in their best interests to do so for what ever personal reason they may have. This is the last post i shall make on the subject. You are welcome to your opinion of course, but this is mine. As for China, they are going through the same technological era we did 100 years ago, with coal powered power stations and the like, with 100s of times the population we had back then now am not surprised they are in a cloak of smog. It is a dirty fuel, one we have since learned about but we have to let them progress through and grow, the same way we did in the late 1800s early 1900s. I am a firm believer that we humans were put on this earth to make use of its resources to flourish and survive. It is something the human race has done for millions of years. Through ice ages and the like. I suppose the next winter we have snow like that of just a couple of years ago we will be reading about the next ice age is happening now etc. Its just hype up of the fuel prices, more tax for our greedy G20 nations. Anyways, back on topic, i am getting more confident of MTOY every hour that passes that there is still decent strength on him in the market. 2 years off the track having no race i think could be beneficial. A couple of racecourse gallops on ground no worse than he will experience at the fez (unless its heavy ground fez then we will be in trouble, it must/has be climate change if it is cos we only had gd/sft for last 10 or so years   ) imo will do him the world of good and put him spot on, if he is still not good enough or he doesn't retain his ability on the track i think we will find out then whether he has a race or not before. |
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There are some romantics on here. NJH used to work the oracle with See You Then but he only had a year off. I'll be surprised if MTOY makes the gig but if he does, no feckin chance.
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Ground too soft for Nickys National Hunt Horses ffs.
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''Yes records of rainfall has been broken but at the end of the day, records are there to be broken.''
, What an outlook to have, it's not the 2 mile track record we're looking to beat. Records are being broken more and more frequently, and by wider and wider margins. The fact you're brushing it aside so daftly is just the drivel that's expected off the average Brit in 2016. The way we haven't solely converted to renewable energy in this day and age is just a joke. It makes economic as well as environmental sense. But instead lets keep digging up the earth surface for oil when there's another way, the very people who call those decisions are the ones who want things to stay as they are, power and money the reason of course. I despise the EU but for very different reasons to you. One of the most anti-eco bodies of all time amongst all the tax dodging, corruption and the rest of it. But then at the same time you're probably another one of these who think the BBC are left wing and Farage is anti establishment Go to South America, go to some of the non-colonial oceanian countries, two areas of the world I've been lucky enough to go to, people there aren't immersed in TV and don't have their heads buried in far right newspaper propaganda, speak to some of these people and the overwhelming majority will tell you what is happening to the planet by calling it how it is, they don't need a tele to tell them, they can see it by living outside and taking it all in with their eyes and ears. But I suppose Cameron's answer of building a bigger Trump style wall to keep the water out is the best solution to the problem isn't it? Hey, it may keep a few more forriners out too, bonus. I know I kind of started this debate although definitely unintentionally, but this is also my last word on the subject. Think I've said what I needed to say about My Tent Or Yours as well so shan't be replying anymore to this thread. Cheers. |
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Walls arent the answer to flooding, better management of our waterways are. Bring back the funding is whats needed in that area.
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@satrus, the tragedy that happens to South America is also closely linked with the CO2 disaster that is unfolding for decades now because of Amazon deforestation which still continues at a rate estimated at 3000 sq miles per year, thats the size of a small country. People in agricultural countries know how badly the weather has affected them and lately I haven't heard any scientist to deny the overwhelming evidence of human produced greenhouse gas. Like you say the solutions are out there, they just refuse to apply it because there's still tons of profit to be made using obsolete methods that destroy the planet in the process.
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btw this is a good topic to discuss as any on this thread, given that Hendo is not running his horses.
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STS - Science is more advanced than being reliant on thermometers and spreadsheets to record global temperatures. We know from ice cores and gaseous concentrations how the temperature has changed over the past 10,000 years. Not every seemingly odd weather event is caused by global warming but that's not really the long-term problem attached to it. Nobody can realistically argue that human activity hasn't caused rapid global temperature change through the burning of fossil fuels.
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