Cheltenham Festival
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08 Jan 16
18:52
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01 Nov 07
Start a new one for this year folks......away ya go......
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I'll throw Barrakilla into the ring. Two runs over too short a trip so far this season, but a pleasing enough effort over 2m at Sandown last time. Maybe looking for another crack at the 3m handicap on the first day or perhaps the Festival Plate?
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After his run this season John Constable off 139 is just 2lbs higher than his rating after just 2 juvenile runs last season. Ground would have been soft enough and look at what San Benedeto and Sternrubin have done for the form since to make him look very nicely treated. It's only those and the horse that came last (song light) that have been seen since and even that was a never nearer 5th behind Sternrubin in the ladbroke. Looking like a surprisingly hot little handicap now.
Even Altior is fluidly connected to the form too before he's shown himself as a bit of a beast. He met Ch'tbello of Skelton's who was behind Sternrubin and Constable next time. Not a lot between Altior and Skelton's so he's one to keep an eye on with wilberdragon and kapstadt who made up the race. Not surprising he hasn't been seen since November! 33/1 coral cup. |
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Oh no, not again
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Doctor Harper could be of interest in the novice handicap chase on Tuesday. Punted like a good-thing on return at Sandown in December, suggesting he shows at home that plenty of ability remains after being off for a couple of years. Remains over hurdles only 1lb higher than his Aintree-winning mark, and has now had 2 runs over fences over a probably inadequate 2 miles, staying on well today under tender handling.
Assuming he gets a chase mark mirroring that of his hurdle mark, he could be interesting over a more suitable 2.5m trip. A cautionary note would be that his two performances at Cheltenham in the Bumper and a novice hurdle behind Ballyalton could possibly suggest a dislike for Cheltenham although he's had no problem on other left handed or undulating type tracks. |
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Was that tender handling? I thought he was totally stuffed.
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I agree with Joist, even if you think it was stuffed fairly, it was stuffed by a good horse.
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IMO, at no point was Scudamore really asking the horse the mount a challenge, there was a perfunctory crack of the whip before turning in but his demeanour in the saddle imo belied the urgency of that and up the straight was never more than hands and heels really.
Anyway, it was 2 miles - I'd quite expect a 3m hurdle winner to be "stuffed" by a live Arkle hopeful and I would say that's what the stable expected with a view that hopefully now the handicapper takes the same line as you Delsie |
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Absolutely. Good luck with that one joisty. Great spot, good logic.
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Cheers Delsie, good luck to you too.
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Oops....did not see the 2016 thread
Given one of the poorest rides 2014 festival you will see. Beaten a total of 137 lengths so far this season. Winner of 2015 Grand Annual Within 1 lb of last years mark,144 current rating BHA website Not a trends horse ?Graded horse running in handicaps Watched re-run of every race last night.Next Sensation won in great style in the concluding grand annual on friday,runs well fresh,and hosed up last march despite clouting the 4th fence.If the words T Scu appear under the jockey column,and trainer gets him there in the same form,he will take the world of beating. Main problem might be having any tokens left by 5-15 fridayMischief |
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Certainly been campaigned with one race in mind all season.
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Pretty sure that it's had a breathing op, too.
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Not sure if anything has come to light about the horse, but I rated STONE HARD pretty highly before his run aginst bellshill, beat 2 nice horses on debut and folded out tamely once beat last time,
Same thing seemed to happen to bachasson whos gone down 2 lbs, in no way would I be trying to insinuate that willie mullins would try to defy the handicapper. And I'm sure there were also very valid excuses for max dynamite and wicklow braves runs before cheltenham last season |
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http://www.skysports.com/racing/news/12040/10120586/michael-scudamore-latest-on-monbeg-dude39s-grand-national-bid
Good to know that I've not totally lost the plot |
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Gordon Elliott said the target for Diamond King was the Martin Pipe race. Can someone put me out of my misery and tell me if he will be eligible for the race after the handicapper has re assessed him after his win at the weekend. To my eye he is rated 142 at the moment but surely will be put above the ceiling mark of 145! am I missing something here? If I am correct why on earth have bookies made him favourite?
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Wish I could answer that myself SP! Tempted to take the 20-1 for the Coral Cup as he will surely be near enough fav if going for the race, but impossible to know.
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Top of my list is Arbre de Vie, yet another Rich Ricci beast.
Wasn't beaten far by Aux Ptit Soins in France and then won easily on his first two starts for WPM before running a really fine race to finish 4th in a strong looking Albert Bartlett last year. Was travelling better than anything at the bottom of the hill. He was then very unlucky not to win a really hot handicap at Punch off top weight... and off a mark in the mid 140's he could well be thrown in. Bit of a worry that he hasn't been sighted all season, haven't heard anything about his well being, nor can I find him quoted in any Festival markets anywhere, but he could be a really likely type for either the Coral Cup or the Pertemps Final imo. Suppose they might be protecting his mark as he is already as high as he probably wants to be to win either of those races. |
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CCM I believe the plan with arbre de vie was to go novice chasing with the RSA the obvious target, but having not seen him or heard anything can only assume he's had a setback
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Oh right, cheers barnesy.
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Smart Predator - I thought you already said he was given 144 by Phil Smith before that win the other day? I took it he was entered for a race in England and that is why you said it.
At the moment he is rated 142 in Ireland so i'd be very surprised if he makes it given how draconian Phil Smith is. Blue Hell beat him in in his prior race and was given a rating of 141 (was entered in Lanzarote) so that's another pointer. GL |
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Maelduin you're right I did say that but I then noticed this morning on the racing post he is 142! Is this the irish OR? My problem is I look to deep in some horses and this particular one has frazzled my brain. I guess well just have to wait and see what happens.
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I think lunique is worth an Ew tickle in the novice handicap chase on the Tuesday,been running in in races it couldn't win,ie the feltham,has ran well in the mares hurdle and will appreciate the better ground,on the same mark as last year's winner.25s
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Smart Predator - Yes 142 is his Official Irish rating. Maybe the Whateleys will have a word in Phil Smiths ear and pin it to 145. I'll be standing on the sidelines till i see it. GL
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Must be some more lurking lads n lasses ....
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Diamond King entered at Cheltenham on Saturday with a mark of 149 so the Martin Pipe race is well and truly busted now! Looks like it will have to be the Coral Cup.
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Nichols must be plotting something as a handicap is about all he could win at Cheltenham with his current flock!
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JackieMoon - Well spotted. Have to say not surprised but still a load of BS. Happens every year.
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Minella Rocco
3 Runs - 4/6 fav in 3 horse race beaten two lengths over inadequate 2m 5f 5/2 fav when pulled up when making a bad mistake early Cheltenham 3m 1.5f race won by Black Lion 10/1 when tailed off again over inadequate 2m 5f Cheltenham race won by seeyouatmidnight I thought this horse would be aimed at the 4 miler before season started but it now looks like the master of handicapping a horse had other plans. |
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Doctor Harper won today to go to the top of handicap markets. 16/1 was short enough not to tempt me in to the 2.5m novice handicap on the Tuesday, 12/1 now is very short given the nature of that race and no idea about running plans. Certainly of interest wherever he goes though.
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Doctor Harper could be tight for the Novices Handicap Chase as it has a ceiling of 140. He could be very close to that after today as he was rated 139 over hurdles. He may have only won a two bob race but I'm sure the handicapper will factor in his hurdle mark when rating him.
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Picking up on Nicholls, he has an interesting runner in that last race at Cheltenham on Saturday. He has a horse called Frodon entered who has recently been purchased from France. He's been allocated 137 based on 5 starts in France so that could prove lenient as it has done before for Nicholls and his French imports. He won the same race with Lac Fontana in 2014 and the same owners (Potensis) are involved with Frodon too.....
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As a backer of Blue Hell for the County I just hope his collateral form with Diamond King doesn't mean he will be given a few extra lbs for sitting in his box
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I think (and so does my wallet) Doctor Harper will go for Kim Muir. Lets see what rating he gets but from all the previous quotes from connections they've always talked him as a 3M chaser. Added to that the Aintree Hurdle win over 3M, Pipe has won Kim Muir twice in recent history with Junior and the Package. I think this race is generally less competitive that the other handicaps and if he can get Jamie Codd on board another bonus. Time will tell and no doubt we won't know until final decs.
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it will be hard to give minella rocco a rating?
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143 Chase
145 Hurdle |
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According to the RP Minella Rocco has a chase rating of 143 which is two pounds lower than his hurdle mark of 145.
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As we're discussing the Novice Handicap, why not last years winning stable and their Racing Pulse, big things were expected when with John Quinn and has been a bit of a talking horse, nothing changed on that score when changing to the Curtis yard and appearing in a few pre-season write ups as a potential stable star for the season ahead.
It wasn't sighted on it's first two runs with highly suspect jumping to the fore, after a bit of a break though it reappeared at Chepstow with a markedly improved jumping and smooth travelling performance to win with a bit in hand on bad ground, he'll be better on better ground. Without the earlier problems he would now be a possible for the RSA but his slower progress has consequently held up his handicap mark and could now run in the Novice off of 139. They could even sneak him in the Racing Post Chase as a novice off of near bottom weight, he's better than a 139 horse. |
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Similar scenario to the one Duffy outlined with Twelve Roses of Kim Bailey
Thought to be potential RSA material pre-season, but Pulled Up twice (ground being blamed) so far this season (bad) meaning it's handicap mark has plummeted (good). Could go for literally any of the novice chases or handicaps now at the Festival, if it was purely the ground that was an issue - of course, as it stands, the ground is still muddy and shows no sign of changing in the short-term. |
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^
very impressive 1st time out, forgot about him  |