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Colonel Sanders
07 Jan 16 22:25
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Date Joined: 27 Oct 05
| Topic/replies: 251 | Blogger: Colonel Sanders's blog
Is all OK here?

Zero on the pink side for the Neptune and a wide spread between back and lay for the Albert Bartlett
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Report Tory January 8, 2016 12:30 AM GMT
Probably to do with Ben Pauling saying on Monday that he was leaning towards the Neptune Trial at Chelt on Trials day - race won by Bob's Worth and At Fishers Cross in recent years.

He also said Festival target will be decided nearer the time. Feeling was he is still leaning towards the AB but mentioned that he can't get the fact that the horse has speed out of his head.

This, and next target, has led some to think he'll end up in the Neptune - probably the reason why he's a little weak on both markets.

Personally think he'd need his head testing if he ran him in the Neptune as he's not a future Champ Hurdle horse - Neptunes are run quite steadily and then turn into a rush for home. He does have speed but his main attribute his a ruthless ability to gallop his rivals into submission.
Report Howdi January 8, 2016 7:25 AM GMT
he wouldnt have to be a future champion hurdler to run in the neptune though
Report shockster January 8, 2016 9:57 AM GMT
If he ran in the Neptune it wouldn't be steadily run if he made the pace which is extremely likely. He'd turn it into a real test. Keep your powder dry is my advice as these novice hurdles are a nightmare until much closer to the race.
Report charlieptl January 8, 2016 10:00 AM GMT
I think BH will end up in the Neptune, at least that is the way I interpreted the comments of Ben Pauling on Monday. He placed emphasis on the speed of the horse and I have to agree.

BH beat the current Neptune favourite in Bellshill over 2m at Aintree, yet people seem to be shocked the Neptune is even being considered. Jump on the 14/1 now and count yourself lucky when he battles up the hill like you know he will.
Report mincer11 January 8, 2016 11:01 AM GMT
It's a complete no brainer, how the hell is he being even considered for the sluggers race?.
This is a class horse who has already beaten Bellshill who is fav for the race, and two of the front 3 in the betting for the supreme novices, namely Altior and Beuveuir Dair.
They should run it in the shorter race, put up Johnson and let Bass lead it round the parade ring, that's what would be the ideal thing to do
Report Can't Catch Me January 8, 2016 11:48 AM GMT
Charlie. Obviously we can all take things differently but interested as to why you interpreted his comments in that way. I took them as AB still the plan, but not ruling out the Neptune?

"Then there's the Neptune trial at Cheltenham on January 30, there's an Albert Bartlett trial at Doncaster on the same day and the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, so it will be one of those three I think."

Pauling is in no rush to decide whether the Neptune or the longer Albert Bartlett will be his Festival target, but is still leaning towards the latter.

He said: "If we go for the Neptune trial it doesn't mean we'll end up in the Neptune itself and vice versa.

"He's not devoid of speed, but he does gallop and stay very well, so as I said the other day, if we get normal Cheltenham ground he'll probably end up in the Albert Bartlett, but we'll see nearer the time.

"We're just going to enjoy the moment for now."
Report Tory January 8, 2016 12:41 PM GMT
Stayers tend to beat faster horses over bumpers - I wouldn't be looking at Barters Hill and going 'oh be beat some really good 2 mile horses in bumpers so he must be quick'.

That's why CF is the only horse for some time to have won the supreme the year after winning the bumper.
Report mincer11 January 8, 2016 1:42 PM GMT
^^^^^^^ Total nonsense ^^^^^^^
Report wellchief January 8, 2016 2:39 PM GMT
I wouldn't put too much emphasis on bumper form when talking about hurdles races. They can be a decent gauge to start off with but are two completely different disciplines.

Good horses like Jezki, The New One, Killultagh Vic are three off the top of my head who get beat a decent number of lengths in the bumper and came very good over hurdles, where winners like Cousin Vinny, Dunguib, Briar Hill largely didn't do anything.
Report stevo1 January 8, 2016 4:30 PM GMT
Backed for any race 9-1,know what race i would prefer to see him run,and its not The Neptune.
Report charlieptl January 8, 2016 5:13 PM GMT
CCM - It was the point he made about speed that led to me interpreting it the way I did. I have looked over it again and there are points to be made in going for either race - he says that himself like you pointed out.   

I have backed Barter's Hill at 14's, 12's and 10's to win any race, so happy from that point of view
Report Colonel Sanders January 9, 2016 3:50 PM GMT
I've 14/1 for the AB - might at least cover the stake x 2 or 3 in the Neptune
Report tony57 January 11, 2016 6:42 PM GMT
mincer..bass has won on the horse all its runs bar warwick (banned) and you think he should drop him?
Report mincer11 January 11, 2016 8:33 PM GMT
Bass wouldnt ride a rocking horse compared to the real cream of the riding proffesion. If you have a top horse in a top race at the Cheltenham festival then theres no room for sentiment when using a sub standard rider. Would Bass be considered to ride any other fancied horse at the festival, an emphatic no.
Report charlieptl January 11, 2016 10:06 PM GMT
Mincer - Bass has ridden BH very well to date and I don't think he is the easiest horse to ride. Having watched all the races back, Bass can often be seen pushing BH along at points in the race you wouldn't expect. Aintree being a classic example. He clearly knows the horses strengths and weaknesses which will is key come Cheltenham. I have backed BH fairly heavily Ante Post and would be happy with Bass on board.
Report tony57 January 12, 2016 11:00 AM GMT
I think your over the top mincer..bass is a fine jockey, ive seen plenty of him,lot of people rate him, in 4-5 years we,ll see were he is but no way would he be jocked off BH pauling rates him and its pauling parents who own the horse.
Report Can't Catch Me January 12, 2016 11:03 AM GMT
ALBERT BARTLETT favourite Barters Hill may not run in the race with trainer Ben Pauling yet to rule out the Neptune for his impressive Challow Hurdle winner.

The 5-1 market leader for the longer race, and as short as 7-2, Barters Hill is 16-1 for the Neptune and will race once more on January 30 before connections decide with Cheltenham and Doncaster under consideration.

"He will run on January 30 in either the Neptune trial at Cheltenham or the Albert Bartlett trial at Doncaster the same day," said the trainer.

"Hand on heart, I can't tell you whether I'll go Neptune or Albert Bartlett after that. He's 5-1 across the board for the Abert Bartlett and he's about 10s or 12s for the Neptune, but my problem is that he's not devoid of speed; he's not an outright slogger."

Ground a factor

Going conditions are likely to determine which path Barters Hill will take. "Obviously he's going to be a horse who stays very well but I think my decision will depend largely on the ground," explained Pauling. "If we get 'Cheltenham ground' then we'll probably go Albert Bartlett but if it came up soft I think the Neptune is plenty enough test for him.

"If he doesn't run at Doncaster at the end of the month then he'd never have run three miles so it's not as easy a decision as everyone might think and he'll have entries for both."

Barters Hill scored by 12 lengths in the Challow but not everyone was entirely convinced with his performance in testing conditions. "The ground was so heavy and tiring, it made it hard for him to look as slick over his hurdles," said Pauling.

"It looked like it was a bit more of an effort but you couldn't help but be impressed with how he quickened from the second-last to put 12 lengths between himself and the second horse when had been sat on his tail.

"To do that in that sort of ground was really quite impressive. It's not that he didn't handle the ground, he just didn't enjoy it as much as he does a sounder surface."
Report Can't Catch Me January 12, 2016 11:05 AM GMT
I know he's never been totally committed to the AB, but I have to say Im getting a worried now. Sounds like he's swaying towards the Neptune to me.

And the way the weather has been the past few years and seems to be going this year, I think a soft ground festival is going to become more and more common.
Report tony57 January 12, 2016 11:24 AM GMT
I hope he goes for the Neptune to stay away from up for review, only on a selfish level as I carnt split them in the AB?..
Report Can't Catch Me January 12, 2016 11:47 AM GMT
Genuinely dont think its because of any other horses tony. You can see their quandary I suppose... and I think they are just trying to do whats best for the horse. If he doesnt make the 3m race at Donny, its a big risk to go to the Festival having never run over 3m before.

Do you not think Up For Review needs soft ground?
Report tony57 January 12, 2016 11:53 AM GMT
yes I do..i think hes better on it, were barters will go on better ground and soft imo,i,ll be lucky enough to speak to ben on the 7th march as I help a friend who organises a preview night that ben has come too for the last 3 yrs..so I,ll find out what are his thoughts etc..by then we'll know were he goes..
Report charlieptl January 12, 2016 12:31 PM GMT
Looks like Neptune to me. Going the Neptune trial will give him Cheltenham experience over a trip that suits. Cannot see them going Donny and then running him first time over an untested trip.
Report JackieMoon33 January 12, 2016 12:41 PM GMT
For me the Albert Bartlett is the race he should be aimed at for best chance of success. I base this on 2 simple opinions:

1.) The Neptune tends to be won by classy, future 2 mile horses more than future stayers. As I do not see Barters Hill running in championship 2 mile events in the future this would be a negative for me. I don't think he is classy enough for the Neptune despite his amazing winning streak. Every race he has won he has been off the bridle earlier than his challengers but they have not been able to pass him. In the Neptune he will come across horses with 2 mile speed that can stay 2 and a half. I have a feeling one of these might just do him for speed on the run in as they will travel better than him.

2.) Kalanisi is his sire and not really prolific in siring classy progeny. Apart from Katchit, who divides opinion, Kalanisi has never sired anything that you would call a Top Tier graded horse.
Report tony57 January 12, 2016 12:49 PM GMT
I think he,ll go 3m race myself, but he has genuinely not made up his mind so its up in the air..i personally think he,ll win what he runs in.
Report charlieptl January 12, 2016 1:46 PM GMT
JackieMoon33 - I have to disagree.

Barter's Hill beat Buveur D'air and Altior over 2m1f, then went on to beat current Neptune favorite Bellshill over the same trip. That, on top of the trainers comments re speed, put any question marks over speed completely into touch for me, especially if the ground isn't good. I think he would get the trip for the AB but think his combination of speed and stamina would fit perfectly for the Neptune.
Report JackieMoon33 January 12, 2016 2:17 PM GMT
I tend to disregard the distance angle in bumpers as they are all run over the same trip give or take a few yards. Also, comparing speed in bumpers to hurdles is dangerous as horses are at different levels of maturity in their careers. Winners of the various championship bumpers over the years have turned up at Cheltenham the following year over all the novice trips as well. So for me I only take into consideration their season hurdling with regards to what is the best trip and how good they actually are.
Report charlieptl January 12, 2016 2:33 PM GMT
JakieMoon33 - I am not basing my opinion solely on the bumper runs because as you say, that is a dangerous game, but since those runs we have seen BH in two Novice Hurdle races where he confirmed he can jump very well.
Report JackieMoon33 January 12, 2016 2:43 PM GMT
Some bumper horses are more mature than others and also trained and campaigned differently. Take Barters Hill versus Buveur D'Air from last season. When they first met Buveur travelled all over Barters Hill but did not find enough to pass him. In their second meeting in the big field at Aintree Buveur was never really in the race and beaten out of sight. Now maybe Barters was more mature last year and being pushed hard by Ben Pauling to succeed. Factor in Henderson is never too hard on his bumper horses and you could argue that the form line there is worthless. Buveur D'Air looked a completely different horse this season over hurdles and finished his race off on debut. Therefore it could be that some of the horses Barters Hill beat last year will improve and get closer to his level or even surpass it.

Alternatively I could be completely wrong and Barters has improved relative to or greater than every horse he beat.....
Report charlieptl January 12, 2016 4:58 PM GMT
JakieMoon33 - Good point on a trainers general approach to bumper horses - perhaps a point I overlooked, but I would argue Barters Hill will come on leaps and bounds in the maturity department. At Newbury he had a long look at the exit and at Huntington he shyed at the path, in both cases Bass had to set him right.
Report JackieMoon33 January 12, 2016 5:31 PM GMT
Agreed that Barters Hill is still mentally immature but I think Physically he may have been ahead of the others last year and now they may catch up.
Report JackieMoon33 January 12, 2016 5:33 PM GMT
I'm in no way knocking the horse though, he'd be my pick for the Albert Bartlett but not for the Neptune.
Report charlieptl January 27, 2016 2:11 PM GMT
Looking at the weather forecast for the next few days I have decided BARTERS HILL will run at @DoncasterRaces for his @cheltenham prep run.
Report Can't Catch Me January 27, 2016 8:01 PM GMT
Pauling has confirmed its Donny. Great news for AB backers.
Report Can't Catch Me January 27, 2016 8:03 PM GMT
BARTERS HILL and Up For Review, the first two in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle betting, may clash on Saturday after trainer Ben Pauling confirmed Barters Hill an intended runner in the River Don Novices' Hurdle at Doncaster.

The Grade 2 is the only entry held by the Willie Mullins-trained Up For Review this weekend, and Pauling, who had the option of running his unbeaten Challow Hurdle winner over half a mile shorter at Cheltenham on the same day, has put the ball in Mullins' court by declaring his hand.

RELATED LINKS
Doncaster card
"It came down to the fact it's good to soft, good in places at Doncaster and Cheltenham is already soft," said Pauling.

"I'm based 12 miles away [from Cheltenham] and it's been monsoon-like for three hours, so I can see it getting very soft.

"David [Bass] felt after the Challow that, while Barters Hill handled the ground, he doesn't want it that soft and I agree with him, so we're going to Doncaster."

Trip decision

Doncaster will give Pauling a chance to see how Barters Hill, a best-priced 9-2 favourite for the Albert Bartlett, handles the trip of the festival contest.

He said: "It'll be nice to see him at three miles - it will confirm our plans. We all think he'll stay, but if I'm going to go for the Albert Bartlett I want to know for sure.

"We're going to meet a decent horse wherever we go, and I would rather meet another good horse on better ground."

Conditions update

Doncaster clerk of the course Roderick Duncan said on Wednesday: "We've avoided the rain this morning and we have no more forecast until Friday into Saturday. We won't have any problems either way - it's just how it will affect the ground given we're also racing on Friday.

"Given the course's condition at the moment and the fact we're forecast dry and windy days, I wouldn't be surprised if we were to report at least patches of good ground on both courses for Friday."
Report Tory January 27, 2016 10:48 PM GMT
Surely there is no way that Mullins will send over Up For Review. He may well have done had Barters gone to Cheltenham, but I'd imagine he'll send over one of his lesser rans to see where they stand against Barters.
Report stevo1 January 28, 2016 1:27 AM GMT
Think you will be correct Tory, be bit shocked if he sends Up For Review.
Report Can't Catch Me January 28, 2016 7:50 AM GMT
Yes I thought the same. A hard race against BH is the last thing the will want.
Report ashleigh January 28, 2016 3:26 PM GMT
up for review intended runner at donny according to w mullins.
Report timtin January 30, 2016 6:46 PM GMT
I thought he had a hard race today and was ridden out to the line, hope he doesn't bounce at the festival as the AB looks his to lose.. can't believe he's still above 2/1..
Report Swardean January 30, 2016 6:56 PM GMT
I guess it depends on what you think of scraping home less than a length in front of 132 rated horse.  With the 100/1 rag not far behind.
Report timtin January 30, 2016 7:06 PM GMT
runner-up a massive improver probably mid 140 horse based on todays run. They were giving the 3rd home 7 lbs which is rated 125, finished 9 lengths in front of him. No obvious dangers in the market if he turns up in good order, so anything above 2/1 is looking good value for me.
Report Swardean January 30, 2016 7:15 PM GMT
TBF, I think he and the Mullins horse took each other on, and both did too much, so other perhaps flattered to get that close.
Report Ibrahima Sonko January 30, 2016 7:21 PM GMT
Just a shame he is being aimed at the 3 miler, today was possibly his worst performance of his hurdling career. I know he needs to jump better but he would be as equally at home over 2m5f.
Report Swardean January 30, 2016 7:26 PM GMT
You think so IS ?

If he was mine I would be tempted by the 4m chase
Report timtin January 30, 2016 7:26 PM GMT
exactly @Swardean, thats why the hard race comment. UFR was given an easy time after he looked beaten but BH jockey asked for everything in the long home straight. He's underestimated in the market because he looked too workmanlike for what bookies and maybe what some punters want, but he doesn't have to be flashy to win races over staying trips.
Report timtin January 30, 2016 7:35 PM GMT
@IS Neptune would be perfect for the pace goes at and would take a v good one to pass him but in the AB he doesnt have that much competition so if he'll just set a 1-2 mph slower pace he might get the 3m trip even better, today a bit too fast upfront.
Report Ibrahima Sonko January 30, 2016 7:59 PM GMT
I know what you are saying Swardean, but he has a decent cruising speed and the earlier parts of his races are good, he could go for it off the bend if in the position to do so, the 3 mile race will be torture if today was anything to go by.
Report Eeternaloptimist January 30, 2016 11:30 PM GMT
If they let him have his own way up front he could possibly grind them into submission but all trainers now know that his potential achilles heel is if he is taken on for the lead he doesn't jump as well. I'm sure they'll fill in the blanks. Or not.
Report duffy January 31, 2016 2:51 AM GMT
I'm not so sure BH isn't just plain lazy and actually may not take so much out of himself as it appears, having said that, you'd just be worried that there'll be one he can't get rid of and will do him up the run in.
Report buddeliea January 31, 2016 6:34 AM GMT
One horse tried to go with him, a horse that was fancied to run well and maybe beat him,and was fancied for the AB in march.
That horse was broken. Thats what BH does.
The lesser horses sat back and had the run of the race watching the two horses up front race.
One of them nearly got to him, but BH just too good.
He is one tough horse to do that after the race he had.
I don't imagine a trainer trying to do what UFR did and probably ruining his chances.
Think he will be out front in the AB and they will all gradually fall off the pace.
Only problem I see with the race for him, is if Shantou Village turns up.
Report barnesey January 31, 2016 7:29 AM GMT
Agree with the comment about shantou village bud, think yesterday's race confirms the AB the right race for him can't see them wanting to take on yanworth again in the Neptune and will potentially improve for the step up to 3 miles on better ground. He didn't look comfortable on the softer ground yesterday so think he ran a good race and is the main danger to Barters Hill in my opinion
Report Gustavo_1000 January 31, 2016 8:25 AM GMT
Not sure what chance BH has in the AB, but if I'd backed him I wouldn't be to concerned after that run. To my eye he looks like a thinker, if you watch the race back he runs nearly 2m with his ears still pricked. Even when his jumping wasn't as good as it has been. 10m after the hurdle he pricked his ears again. Not to mention the fact the whole time UFR was at his quarters he had his head cocked so he could see him. Clearly he wasn't giving it everything. At the end he just watches the other horse and does just enough.
Report unclepuncle January 31, 2016 8:54 AM GMT
Clearly has a big engine and a massive heart but I'd still be concerned about his lack of Cheltenham form and his jumping is very sketchy which will be much more of an issue in a big field.
If they aim Shantou Village at the AB, and they surely won't want to take Yanworth on again, I'd make him clear favourite ahead of BH.
Both horses have the double entry so even with the doubt about their targets I can't resist the 10/1 on SV.
Report Ibrahima Sonko January 31, 2016 9:05 AM GMT
Good post Gustavo.

You get the feeling he would beat 120 or a 150 horse by the same distance, He does seem a bit of a thinker, maybe headgear will help or not.
Report Swardean January 31, 2016 11:09 AM GMT
You would think Mullins or JP, with their legions of horses, would run a "spoiler" to pester him up front.
Report Autocue January 31, 2016 11:26 AM GMT
I don't see why Shantou Village wouldn't take on Yanworth again on better ground. Heavy ground form isn't necessarily replicated in March and some horses just con't perform to the best of their ability on it. Yesterday was Shantou Village's first attempt on heavy after four wins on good ground.
Report Ibrahima Sonko January 31, 2016 11:51 AM GMT
True, Heavy ground & slow pace could had flattered  Yarnworth, well worth taking on again on better ground.
Report blackballed1 January 31, 2016 12:01 PM GMT
I think the connections of shantou where thinking more Neptune before yesterday! But it must have been tough to see him beaten quite so easily! I hope they go bartlet but we shall see
Report Can't Catch Me February 2, 2016 4:00 PM GMT
Ben Pauling's stable star stepped up to three miles for the first time in the Albert Bartlett trial on Town Moor and while main market rival and Willie Mullins-trained Irish raider Up For Review seemingly ran below par, Barters Hill showed his trademark grit to stretch his unbeaten record to seven.

Pauling is still not ruling out dropping back in distance for the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle at Prestbury Park in March, but admits he was impressed with the Alan King-trained Yanworth in the Neptune trial at Cheltenham over the weekend and he is unlikely to let Barters Hill take him on unless conditions are extremely testing.

"He didn't race lazily and didn't hit his flat spot that he can do (at Doncaster). That was probably because the Mullins team decided the way to beat him was to take him on for the lead, and it actually kept him very honest the whole way," Pauling told At The Races.

"If I told you a 100-1 shot (Ami Desbois, third) was going to beat Up For Review, you'd tell me it was a muddling race and I think because they've gone so hard so early, it ended up being a funny result.

"The front two have almost cut each others throats a little bit and given the others a tow into the race, but Barters Hill found what's necessary to win whereas Up For Review has fallen by the wayside.

"I'm definitely in the camp that it's much more likely he's going to go three miles (at Cheltenham). I've entered him in both races because I'm still determined that if it does come up ridiculously soft at Cheltenham, two-mile-five in the Neptune would be far enough.

"The Albert Bartlett is just under three miles and the Neptune is just over two-five, so we're talking about a difference of a furlong and a half. It's really not that much of a difference.

"I was very impressed by Yanworth at the weekend - he was effortless. He looks to me like he might be that champion hurdler lurking in the Neptune.

"I think we would be vulnerable to a horse like that."
Report Colonel Sanders March 10, 2016 9:59 PM GMT
very weak

Is all well or are they thinking Neptune again? Market doesn't appear to support the latter
Report scooby91 March 10, 2016 10:02 PM GMT
Deffinately goes this race, but he has a hell of alot more opposition than looked likely a few weeks ago. Mullins has thrown in 3 or 4 quality speed horses.
Report lewisham ranger March 10, 2016 11:30 PM GMT
The thing that concerns me with this horse is his cruising speed

to some extent he reminds me of detroit city who also raced lazily and got worse as he got older. hope this doesn't happen to this horse as he's a very admirable individual

Obviously as scooby points out mullins is very strong in the novice department so he's going to have to be ever bit as good as they think he is to win

the ground could dry up by friday, good weather forecast till then

if that is the case I just wonder if he'll get tapped for speed?!
Report buddeliea March 11, 2016 7:02 AM GMT
Barters Hill will relish decent ground and 3 miles, think its his ideal.

Mullins can throw as many speed horses as he likes, I doubt they will have much speed left by the time they have finished battling with him,if indeed they aint been broken by then.
Shantou will be his main threat imo.
Report buddeliea March 11, 2016 7:07 AM GMT
Would add that if it looks like being soft next week,the Neptune could be his race.
Soft ground I think the Neptune trip would suit him well.
Report buddeliea March 11, 2016 7:59 AM GMT
Think about it a bit more as re Mullins horses......Gangster looks the ideal horse for this race,and i can see him running best out of his horses and on soft ground would have a real good chance imo. But then hes always had this race in mind for him i would think, not sure the others were.
Report lewisham ranger March 12, 2016 9:19 AM GMT
gangster has been well tipped up on the previews... apparently davy russell saw him gallop with some horse who may have been vautour, and hammered him

must admit on reflection though I reckon if barters hill was trained by mullins he'd be odds on. 7/7 and likely to be very tough to outbattled up the hill. this race normally turns into a bit of a slog for these novices so he's ideally suited to that test.
Report wellchief March 12, 2016 10:00 AM GMT
I'd say Barters Hill is easily the most vulnerable of the three favourites in the novice hurdles - not much bigger than Min, and if I had to choose to back one or the other, I'd choose Min every day.

As Scooby says, Mullins has put a lot of his "B Team" in this, so opposition looks much tougher than a few weeks ago.  Long Dog and Bleu et Rouge have both been over shorter trips this year, but both shape at stayers and have solid G1 form in heavy ground in Ireland.

Tombstone ties in closely with these two, so a good run from him in the Supreme will be very favourable to both of them.

I think this could be the only race for Barters, I would never have considered the Neptune for him.  He reminds me of a hurdling Don Poli, slighlty lazy, clever, just does enough and gets the job done; but as with Don Poli, this will be by far his toughest test, and I expect something a little classier to get ahead of him.

To be fair to Barters Hill though, he is probably one of the best bumper horses we have seen in the last couple of years, so he is not short of class.  Like No More Heroes in the Albert Bartlett, we'll see Barters at his best in something like the RSA, so I think this year is a stepping stone to bigger things as he'll be a monster in staying chases.
Report lewisham ranger March 12, 2016 10:10 AM GMT
this will be by far his toughest test, and I expect something a little classier to get ahead of him

but there were plenty of supposedly "classier" types in the aintree bumper last year, and he put them in their place. Had horses in behind him that day who are now strongly fancied for races like the supreme and

don't agree at all that he's easily the most vulnerable of the three favourites in the novice hurdle. traditionally the albert bartlett is the weakest novice hurdle. Min has horses like Altoir to beat.

throw in the fact that the step up in the trip will be in his favour, he starts to look like a banker. if these horses couldn't outbattle him over two miles, how are they going to have a chance over three miles up the cheltenham hill?
Report buddeliea March 12, 2016 10:27 AM GMT
Yeh,think hes a real good thing as long as its not too soft.
Those afterthoughts of Mullins wont know whats hit them when asked to start battling after near on 3 miles.
Hes as solid fav as you can get next week imo.

Chief
Not sure why you would think the Neptune would not suit?, especially on soft ground, form book looks pretty good at shorter distances.
Report scooby91 March 12, 2016 10:30 AM GMT
I don't thing long dog will go bartlett but you never know.
BELLO CONTI (unexposed) on a line through mad fun in the west/ bleu et rouge. he looks potentially very exciting.
THOMAS HOBSON classy  horse with a big engine, improving his technique with each run and slaughtered the English or here.
BLEU ET ROUGE
Tough and classy, on the upgrade.
BACHASSON
Almost a forgotten horse, if you forgive his last run on very soft ground over 2 miles, he'd be a danger to all.
GANGSTER
Been apparently working well and beat the mags mullins horse far more easily than bellshill on his first start up in trip , at the start of the season in Galway,  mullins thought he was going to be the best of the 3. (Long dog and bachasson)

UP FOR REVIEW
He diddnt seem right at all last time, and never travelled with the enthusiasm that he had in previous starts where his form had worked out well. With the solid space cadet and acapella bourgeois turning out to be pretty good.
Was it the ground or was something


ARKWISHT STONE HARD & NAMBOUR
all Likely to be thrown in here for giggingstown who Willie mentioned have several under consideration for the race,


BALKO DES FLOS
Has this race under consideration but more likely to go neptune.
Report wellchief March 12, 2016 10:32 AM GMT
This isn't a 2 mile bumper though Lewisham; a 3m hurdle race at Cheltenham is completely different, so whilst I have said he was an excellent bumper horse, I don't think those races will have any bearing on this at all.  None of the lineup in the AB never faced him as a bumper horse, so the fact he beat Altior, Beuvair D'air means nothing in relation to the Bartlett.

Judging him on his hurdle form, of which this is, I think he'll get outpaced at some point.  Whether something will be good enough to go passed him, I don't know, but I wouldn't want to back at 5/2 - 11/4 knowing he might get done for speed, and is vulnerable for something fast finishing.

He almost got done by Ballydine last time (rated 132) and you can bet he will be facing higher class horses in this.

Also, the Bartlett being traditionally the weakest race, that doesn't really mean anything as you have to judge each race and each renewal on it's merits.  He will be facing Gangster, Shantou Village, Long Dog and Bleu et Rouge - very tough opposition if you ask me.
Report lewisham ranger March 12, 2016 10:33 AM GMT
scooby they can't all win. barters was beating all these type of horses in bumpers and is 7/7.
Report lewisham ranger March 12, 2016 10:38 AM GMT
you can't say it has no bearing well chief.

if he's beating altoir and beauvair dair (and bellshill as well, supposedly one of mullins better ones)

are long dog etc any classier than those?

it's just his battling qualities that impress me. these are the sort of horses you want on your side at cheltenham. you know they'll get carried out on their sword even if they do get beat.

rather have barters than one of these bridle ponces that empty up the hill. and it's an 11-4 shot we're talking about here, not a 6-4 shot

also if you backed him in every race you'd be £47 quid up to a level stake, which points to horse that has been consistently underestimated by the market, who tend to prefer flashier types.
Report wellchief March 12, 2016 10:38 AM GMT
Horses improve miles for hurdles though, so you can't rely on 2m bumper form in a 3m hurdle race.  He didn't face any of Albert Bartlett runners in a bumper.

Bumpers are for very inexperienced horses, learning their trade on a racetrack.  I've already said Barters is as tough as they come, so it doesn't surprise me at all that he won good bumpers, but as those in behind get better, they often improve past the winner.

Just off the top of my head, horses like Jezki, Yanworth and The New One were beaten in the Champion Bumper recently and went on to much better things.  Giggi don't run in them for a reason.
Report scooby91 March 12, 2016 10:41 AM GMT
I'm already on barters from ages ago. But now at the prices there is no way I'd play,
Just my opinion.
When a horse like BELLO CONTI is 33/1 and bleu et rouge been 40s. (Now well supported) long dog nrnb at 16s if he did line up.
There are now huge unknowns open to masses of improvement going up in trip, that imo Are now far better value bets.
Report buddeliea March 12, 2016 10:43 AM GMT
What the bumper form tells us is he has some pace to go with his obvious stamina.
Very useful combination.
I actually take a different view to his last race. Yes the horse that was second had a low rating,but the horse that tried to take him...his main rival - which meant he was a bit too keen too early on - was beaten out of sight.Thats what he does to horses that take him on too early, and those that come to him travelling well soon come off the bridle, as with the 2 horses in his previous race.
I would agree Gangster and Shantou are dangerous rivals,but cannot have the likes of LD and BeR over 3 miles against this horse....to be honest I think it may be a case for the RSPCA!!Laugh
Report wellchief March 12, 2016 10:43 AM GMT
Budd, I don't think he'll have the speed for a Neptune - especially if Yanworth and Yorkhill both run.  If Barters ran in the Neptune, he'd remind me of Reve De Sivola, when you could tell he was always a stayer, and he ran well for a long way, but eventually got done on the run in by Peddlers, who had the speed to go past him.

Soft ground changes everything though, and as Barters has won over 3m and is tough, he will be difficult to beat.  Good ground and I think he is vulnerable from something in behind.

Yes, I get we're not talking about a 6/4 shot, but all I'm saying is at around the same price, if you gave me £20, I'd back Min in the Supreme each time.
Report lewisham ranger March 12, 2016 10:46 AM GMT
well chief you say he might get done for speed, and get beat by something finishing fast

but surely if that was the case how on earth was he able to win over aintree over two miles, against horses that are now well fancied for the surpreme, over 1 mile shorter? And bumpers or not you're still having to gallop.

the only thing that concerns me is the quirkiness of the horse. he almost runs out at some point in the challow hurdle, which would worry me for cheltenham. but then all these worries are put into the price, he's an 11-4 shot not 6-4

I can see why people are concerned about this horse, as his last run did look rather laboured. However I'm happy to give the horse the benefit of the doubt and take the view that he wasn't fully wound up for that run and we'll see a much better display at cheltenham.

certainly you're right he's similar to don poli- and with horses like that the stronger the race the better they look. that's the theory anyway. I can see horses travelling better than him in the race but when they come around the turn and they come off the bridle he'll power away from them up the hill. tough as they come. Cool
Report buddeliea March 12, 2016 10:51 AM GMT
He maybe a bit deceptive to you Chief? Soft ground Neptune would suit him perfectly imo,looking at his form.
Not saying he would beat the two y's,but he would certainly make sure they knew they had a race!!
Report lewisham ranger March 12, 2016 10:52 AM GMT
supreme even. anyway we'll just have to respectfully disagree- I take the view that barters hill will gallop them into the ground and power away from them up the hill- you think he's vulnerable to a speed horse

11-4 though, this could look the price of the century after the race Cool
Report lewisham ranger March 12, 2016 10:54 AM GMT
Budd I think this horse is actually better on quicker ground

His best performance was at aintree where the ground is nearly always decent
Report wellchief March 12, 2016 10:55 AM GMT
Suppose we could go round in circles with this - I only made a passing comment and I'm getting yelled at from all angles LaughLaugh

I just think bumpers are completely different types of races Lewisham.  I might be completely wrong, and I should be using his bumper form, but I tend not to use it, and would rather look at hurdle form.  Same as I don't look at flat form once a horse has gone hurdling because it's a completely different discipline.

I think at the prices, he's very much one to take on.
Report lewisham ranger March 12, 2016 10:56 AM GMT
long dog an interesting one but unproven over three miles- barters will outstay the buzzy mullins types Cool

although you can get 11-4 now which is massive on a certainty, it might even be better to wait for the day as you could get an even bigger price, if they smash into this overhyped gangster horse.
Report buddeliea March 12, 2016 11:17 AM GMT
Yeh Lewisham,i think hes better on decent ground too and if it is,then the AB is his imo, but soft ground over 3m I would not be so confident of him running in the race...
This horse has a hell of a future over fences imo, and a soft ground gruelling AB might not be good for him bearing that in mind.
Reason I was talking soft and the Neptune is it would blunt the fast two and a half milers he would have to face.
Report wellchief March 12, 2016 11:21 AM GMT
^^ Next year's RSA and I'll be fighting in the same corner as you two Excited
Report ReaseHeath March 12, 2016 11:39 AM GMT
interesting discussion , not been through the form of the race yet but I do think it's a unique contest, attritional if it's soft for novices over an extended trip, gruelling if it's decent going cos they tend to go too fast - nothing is going to be outspeeding anything up the hill imo - more a case of which one is decelerating least quickly, Boston Bob never getting to Brindisi Breeze, King's Palace absolutely legless after trying to make all, slow motion finish and shock result last year, decent animals with Ps next to their name - these are my recent memories of the race.

Instinctively the race should suit Barters Hill but it's a step into the unknown for him as it is for all the others.
Report lewisham ranger March 12, 2016 12:39 PM GMT
Yeah you are right rease. race is a slog, flashy horses need not apply.

he'd definitely be running in the long race budd. Forecast is fine and in any case the clue is in the name

Barter's hill

Albert Bartlett

Wink
Report buddeliea March 12, 2016 1:08 PM GMT
Well that's that then mate.....home and hosed Laugh
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! March 18, 2016 5:33 PM GMT
Just listened on the radio
Trainer said he wasnt quite rite a couple days ago
In those circumstances ran a decent race today

Wink
Report wellchief March 18, 2016 5:53 PM GMT
He ran a lot better than I thought he would, and lost nothing in defeat.

If he goes chasing, he'd be a tough nut to crack in the RSA.  Alpha Des Obeaux would be a really Giggi type one in that too, but with no Thistlecrack, and no real star novices over 3m, he would be a big favourite for next years World Hurdle in my view.
Report Cash Is King March 19, 2016 12:08 AM GMT
His "never say die" running style suggests to me that he'll go sour sooner rather than later and stop putting it all in.
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