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Paterson92
14 Dec 15 01:06
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Date Joined: 02 Sep 14
| Topic/replies: 20,374 | Blogger: Paterson92's blog
I have a feeling Mullins Cheltenham 4 miler is making his chase debut tomorrow at Navan - Black Hercules. Patrick is always desperate for a good ride in this race and has always had a soft spot for the horse, it would be no surprise to me if he was the one. I remember listening to a podcast before Cheltenham 2014 when he said he let his heart rule his head when picking Black Hercules over Shaneshill in the Champion Bumper. I've had a few quid on at 16/1 with Paddy Power.

Pre Cheltenham 2014:

The amateur rider son of trainer Willie Mullins has plumped for Black Hercules over stablemates Killultagh Vic and Shaneshill in a race his father has already won a staggering eight times.

He knows all three horses well having ridden them in all their bumper races so far, but Black Hercules, a convincing winner of both his starts under Rules, is the one for him as he was jointly responsible for buying him.

"Myself and my cousin (Emmet) bought Black Hercules as a young horse so I have an affinity for him. That's why I'm on him, " he said.

"He won his point-to-point and he's a strong stayer. He travelled over great. I think he'll handle the ground. It's obviously much better than he's handled before, but I think he will.

"To me he's a gorgeous horse. Mr (Graham) Wylie bought him and for him to win was a huge weight off the shoulders. Black Hercules is a real three-mile chaser and needs a real gallop to be seen at his best."

Anyone else have any thoughts on the race? Something different from the usual novice hurdle threads at least ...
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Report mincer11 January 26, 2016 7:17 PM GMT
Its the jockey who is going to be the biggest problem here, there are about 4 or 5 excellent amateurs in Ireland, the ones in England wouldnt ride Cheryl Cole. In the order of Codd, Carberry, O Connor, Mullins and Walsh, thats the way id rate them myself, but they are the top 5 no matter what way you put them in. If you dont have one of them and Onenightinvienna is extremely unlikely to, then you are at a huge disadvantage.
Report scooby91 January 27, 2016 9:56 AM GMT
One night in vienna aparrently skips cheltenham  for the national
Report mincer11 January 27, 2016 3:47 PM GMT
Its easy now to see why O Brien is riding it , them kind of people dont deserve to have winners. What a ridiculous decision to go for the National
Report wellchief January 27, 2016 5:19 PM GMT
Its the jockey who is going to be the biggest problem here, there are about 4 or 5 excellent amateurs in Ireland, the ones in England wouldnt ride Cheryl Cole. In the order of Codd, Carberry, O Connor, Mullins and Walsh

Watch the sea of blue on oddschecker when Codd's and O'Connor's rides are confirmed.
Report Augustine January 27, 2016 5:30 PM GMT
Scooby, just saw that in Lydia Hislop's piece on the Life website. A bitter blow to my finances, I have to say. You'd have thought Hobbs might have mentioned the change of plan without having to be asked by a journalist but there you go - that's ante-post betting for you. I have to say it's a very bold move to go for the National as a novice but Onenightinvienna certainly jumps well and stamina is his strong suit.
Report Augustine January 27, 2016 5:30 PM GMT
Scooby, just saw that in Lydia Hislop's piece on the Life website. A bitter blow to my finances, I have to say. You'd have thought Hobbs might have mentioned the change of plan without having to be asked by a journalist but there you go - that's ante-post betting for you. I have to say it's a very bold move to go for the National as a novice but Onenightinvienna certainly jumps well and stamina is his strong suit.
Report mincer11 January 27, 2016 5:47 PM GMT
I assume some other moron ran a novice chaser in the National at some stage but i couldnt think of any. This is absolutely imbecilic, what on earth is this about?. You put up inferior riders, and you go for the wrong races, and then they think they are unlucky when they dont win races.
Report HaylingBilly January 27, 2016 6:00 PM GMT
O mincer it must be hard being so smart. The burden is clearly too much to carry.

Two words.........Cue.................Card................MischiefMischiefMischief
Report TimmyRiggins January 27, 2016 6:05 PM GMT
Laugh
Report mincer11 January 27, 2016 8:09 PM GMT
So i am wrong here billy, is that what you are saying.
It sums up the quality of posters here where they harp on about a horse who i said wouldnt win, and it wouldnt have only for a horse falling.
Report HaylingBilly January 27, 2016 9:28 PM GMT
Ref a novice chaser running in the National, I don't know whether you are right or wrong mate. And neither do you. But I do have an open mind and I do believe Philip Hobbs knows the game better than me and I do know Philip Hobbs knows the horse better than me and I do know a novice chaser won the Gold Cup last year and I do know Cue Card won the King George fair and square - none of that "if he didn't fall" bollox, jumping is the name of game - and I do know you present your opinion as fact and as smart as you may be that is just not the case. That's what I am saying. Make sense ?

And I apologise if the quality of my posts does not match your o so high level of insight and quick wit.
Report TYSON 2 January 27, 2016 9:32 PM GMT
ouch!!
Report mincer11 January 27, 2016 9:42 PM GMT
Firstly billy, i dont actually know how i qualified to be a mate of yours. Secondly i never mentioned Coneygree and the Gold Cup, that has absolutely zero to do with what i was talking about. I quite like Philip Hobbs as a person and as a trainer, but its highly likely this decision is not of his making. I'd like someone to tell me the last novice chaser that ran in the Grand National, never mind win it.
The one thing in their favour is that they are guaranteed a jockey , because there wont be a big que for Tom O Brien.
Report HaylingBilly January 27, 2016 9:55 PM GMT
GrinGrinGrinGrin...... never heard of Billy No Mates.......
Report jasey January 27, 2016 10:07 PM GMT
If it's true it is a disgraceful decision,horses life is at risk here.
Report mincer11 January 27, 2016 10:15 PM GMT
Its not that his life is at risk as such, he is a very good jumper in all honesty. Its more like a disgraceful bit of placing , than anything else.
Report jasey January 27, 2016 10:31 PM GMT
His chasing career consists of 3 chases in small fields that makes him an accident waiting to happen for me.
Report Fabulous January 28, 2016 12:59 AM GMT
Mincer, Cause of Causes ran as a novice in The National last year, and Pipe ran a few.
Report stevo1 January 28, 2016 1:14 AM GMT
Fab Cause of Causes defo wasnt a novice mate, dont give him more ammo.
Report duffy January 28, 2016 1:17 AM GMT
Yes but C of C was a novice in name only, it was his 12th chase start and had run in many big field quality chases including a win and place at the festival.
Report stevo1 January 28, 2016 1:19 AM GMT
Correct Duffy not sure why getting involved tbh,but imo no novice should run in Grand National.
Report duffy January 28, 2016 1:28 AM GMT
I don't know if I'd say no novice because Cause of Causes is the exception to the rule and ruling him out would have been plain daft. The rule that a horse had to be placed over at least 3 miles is pretty thin to say the least though, it should be a minimum number of runs rather than placing.
Report Fabulous January 28, 2016 1:34 AM GMT
Yeah, was just saying guys...........definitely staying out of this one Grin
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 28, 2016 8:12 AM GMT
Adding my tuppence worth into this, but am a bit confused

cos, well, aren't novices not allowed to run in the National due to the new race entry criteria? Or is it just merely a minimum number of starts over fences of at least grade 3 level with at least one winConfused

I might be wrong but it is something along those lines
Report HaylingBilly January 28, 2016 10:20 AM GMT
Looked it up because interested. I believe the below is still the criteria :

The Review Group proposed that the minimum age for a horse to be eligible to race in the Grand National be raised to seven years. While trainers supported the status quo of six-year old horses racing, the Review Group did not find evidence of six-year old horses greatly contributing to the success of the race.
• The Review Group recommended that future participants in the Grand National must have placed no lower than fourth in a recognised Steeplechase event of three miles or further at some point in their career. Moreover, the Group felt that the suitability of a horse should be assessed in the light of expanded criteria, including Steeplechase experience, staying ability, previous injuries or declining performance.
• It is also recommended that the current Rider eligibility criterion in the Grand National should be expanded to require at least 10 of the minimum 15 previous Chase/Hurdle career wins to have been in Steeplechases.
Report Tory February 1, 2016 11:15 PM GMT
Has anyone heard anything on Rule The World? Was a load of money for it recently and now there isn't a penny wanting to back it!
Report delsie777 February 6, 2016 11:37 PM GMT
Quite surprised Black Hercules is fav for this. I would think Ruby might be pushing for him to go to the RSA after Pont Alexandre's run today, He's looking short of a decent mount in that race, barring perhaps a Mullins trained Gigginstown second string.
Report The Headmaster February 7, 2016 2:15 AM GMT
duffy - re the National, I Like the 3m rule.  Speed is a dangerous thing in that race and we were constantly treated to the sight of 2 and 2.5 milers batting off and setting the tone of the race.  The 3m rule has calmed it down a bit. 

Those calling for a novice restriction are barking up the wrong tree. So in that case a Young Hustler-type novice having his 15th start would be deemed unsafe but a horse who made a winning chase debut the season before and was having his second start in the National as a 'fully-fledged' chaser is ok?  Hardly.

There needs to be a minimum chase restriction of at least six starts and it will come imo.
Report duffy February 7, 2016 2:54 AM GMT
I think they should try Pont Alexandre in this race, he isn't going to stand a chance over shorter as he will be running against horses that ultimately will get him off the bridal and he finds nothing off of it.

See if he stays and he may very well just outclass them without having to fight too hard to do it.
Report The Headmaster February 7, 2016 11:34 AM GMT
Agree re PA. Took although the 80-90 on here after the Flogas.

No doubt I'm on a non.
Report The Headmaster February 7, 2016 11:37 AM GMT
"although"?

"all the"!

Crikey.
Report shockster February 7, 2016 11:46 AM GMT
Just taken 20/1 Native River Corals for this. Seems an over reaction drifting him out so far. Decent trial to me and crying out for further.
Report wellchief February 7, 2016 10:54 PM GMT
For the stats people out there, a couple of strong ones for this (from the excellent Gaultstats):

17 from last 18 had finished first or second in a chase over at least 3 miles.  That's a big negative for Outlander backers, although he did finish second in a point to point back in the day.

Of the last 13 runnings, 11 had finished either 1st or 2nd in a 3 mile hurdle.  Another negative for Outlander, and Roi de Francs too, but he did win 2 hurdle races over 2m 6f.

27 of past 30, 1st or 2nd in either of past two runs.  That most of the market leaders hit this one.

28 from last 31 all out at least 4 times that season and last 16 had all run at least 3 times over fences.  That's a pretty big negative for Black Hercules.

The last four winners rated 146, 150, 146 and 151 respectively.  Lots of the market leaders hit this, showing the better quality.  Black Hercules, Roi de Francs, Rule the World, Pont, Native River, Outlander.  Interestingly, Black Hercules is the lowest rated of those at the minute.
Report wellchief February 14, 2016 4:09 PM GMT
Just glad to see Black Hercules get up after that.  Jumped and travelled beautifully.
Report shockster February 14, 2016 4:51 PM GMT
Whichever way you look at it, that's not an ideal prep for BH for Cheltenham.
Report Quevega06 February 14, 2016 11:06 PM GMT
Think that could seal The Herc heading for the four miler after that, good knows which one of the gigginstown horses go they've about four atom that could go ..
Report shockster February 23, 2016 2:22 PM GMT
Think I've done my dough on Native River 12/1 with bookies and double that on here before the suspension.
Report roobuck February 25, 2016 4:50 PM GMT
Panic over shockster LoveCool
Report shockster February 25, 2016 6:35 PM GMT
Yes Roo. Very good. Come on Native River. Excited
Report harry callaghan February 25, 2016 7:53 PM GMT
looks like he is likely to get derek o'connor shockster you'll be pleased to know
Report roobuck February 25, 2016 8:09 PM GMT
That's good news. Also backed him for same reasons as shockster, posted on NH Big Race thread though.
Report shockster February 25, 2016 8:11 PM GMT
Not arguing with Derek O'Connor at all. Win or lose Roo and I have a fair bet.
Report sageform February 25, 2016 8:23 PM GMT
Not a race I would bet on until the 24 hour declarations and all runners and more important, riders, are known. It used to be a good race when it was only open to maidens at the beginning of the season. Pointers won a few times but my biggest win was Fuzzy Logic. Unbeaten after 2 wins over the course in 3 mile novice chases he started at 33/1 and paid 70 on the Tote. He was that price because he was owned, trained and ridden by a permit trainer and his son. These days it is another RSA chase for the horses just below top class.
Report roobuck March 3, 2016 9:24 PM GMT
See O'Connor has jumped ship. Poor show from an amateur imo
Report harry callaghan March 3, 2016 9:56 PM GMT
would be great if native river gets up close home to beat rocco for the heartbreak for o'connor
Report TimmyRiggins March 3, 2016 10:02 PM GMT

Mar 3, 2016 -- 3:56PM, harry callaghan wrote:


would be great if native river gets up close home to beat rocco for the heartbreak for o'connor


Definitely.

Report impossible123 March 3, 2016 10:12 PM GMT
Withdrawing Black Hercules to allow Minella Rocco a smoother path, conspiracy? No worries, RDF to the rescue.
Report Can't Catch Me March 3, 2016 10:15 PM GMT
Why would the Graham Wylie owned, Willie Mullins trained Black Hercules be withdrawn to allow the JP McManus owned, Jonjo O'Neill trained Minella Rocco a smoother path Confused
Report impossible123 March 3, 2016 10:35 PM GMT
Just a flippant thought similar to WPM's rerouting of BH to the JLT, a wholly absurd decision to say the least for a stayer.
Report Can't Catch Me March 3, 2016 10:41 PM GMT
Don't get it at all. Shaneshill JLT and Black Hercules RSA looks so obvious if you were Wylie.
Report impossible123 March 3, 2016 10:53 PM GMT
BH has only a small chance of winning the RSA with both NMH and MOT in; if the recent sound bites about MOT proved untrue and MOT remained in the RSA then BH chance of winning the JLT would be enhanced despite the trip being a wee bit too short - this is merely a flippant thought just like some of WPM.
Report delsie777 March 3, 2016 11:00 PM GMT
God knows how he came to be the most successful trainer of recent years - couldn't place a horse to save his life. He should give up the game Wink
Report RBoyd86 March 3, 2016 11:50 PM GMT
lol just lucky! You hear what DRussel said reg story about WM bumper winner briar hill i believe ? Crazy That he got on the boat by mistake or something so they just decided to run him anyway lol??
Report impossible123 March 4, 2016 12:12 AM GMT
RBoyd86

Are you being mischievous about Vautour not showing same kind of spark at home?
Report RBoyd86 March 4, 2016 12:42 AM GMT
no, not at all lol

Just putting what i read from RR. Love the horse his performance in the KG for 90 % of race was jaw dropping, very rare a performance leaves you gobsmacked. I just cant see him staying, i can understand they have to run him and see. Would be an awesome sight in the champion. And i would re mortgage the house for the ryanair.

Just think were in the position a lot of trainers are (where bit diff now have commenwealth cup0 with 3yo sprinters trying to stretch them out to be milers. He deserves a chance as it is the GC. Just hope they have a rethink if he doesnt stay as i hate it when they try make horses run in races due to the prestige of the race, instead of running it over its right trip. Think we all agree he's a horse with a serious cruising speed, thats what he's about now stamina. Stamina horses win gold cups, synchronised, imperial commander, bobs worth, denman etc I no KS won at chelt but it was never his track/trip he was just that good and the times he won they where races he just had a significant abillity advantage over the others. Vauotur is the most talented of these but not enough to make up for his stamina deficiencies. Sorry rant over cant help myself CHELTENHAM FEVER has taken over!
Report RBoyd86 March 4, 2016 12:42 AM GMT
not  stamina
Report impossible123 March 4, 2016 12:54 AM GMT
I do not think Vautour will beat Djakadam either let alone the two Dons, why? The two extra furlongs and the punishing hill will take its toll on Vautour ie Vautour will be tanking 100yds from the line, big time; the Ryanair, is a different proposition - Vautour will run them ragged hence a good strategy for inclusion in multiples if nrnb.
Report RBoyd86 March 4, 2016 12:58 AM GMT
couldn't agree further!
Report illinois_riki March 4, 2016 9:11 AM GMT
Was at a Preview last night and Barry O'Connell gave a big shout out for Ballychorus in this - 16s/20s
Report ACStafford March 4, 2016 10:28 AM GMT
I really like the look of Ballychorus actually. Any idea who rides?
Report ACStafford March 4, 2016 10:29 AM GMT
I really like the look of Ballychorus actually. Any idea who rides?
Report impossible123 March 4, 2016 11:10 AM GMT
Noble Endeavour, just touched off by Killutagh Vil over 20f but 4l in front of RDF who is also bound for this race.
Report illinois_riki March 4, 2016 11:18 AM GMT
Believe Shane Shortall will ride
Report illinois_riki March 4, 2016 11:20 AM GMT
Also gives Velvet Maker huge chance in Grand Annual.  Feels he is the 2nd best 2 Mile Novice in Ireland and that could be good enough to win
Report festivalfanatic March 4, 2016 12:15 PM GMT
Believe Shane Shortall will ride

If this is the same SS who rides as a conditional, he won't be riding in this race!
Report Can't Catch Me March 4, 2016 12:56 PM GMT
Is MP Fogarty still an Amateur? Think he's ridden for connections before.
Report mincer11 March 4, 2016 12:58 PM GMT
Shane Shortall and Mikey Fogarty
Its time to give up now.
Report Can't Catch Me March 4, 2016 1:14 PM GMT
Helpful as ever mincer.

Guess it will be Quinlan then.
Report festivalfanatic March 4, 2016 1:14 PM GMT
Feck me CCM, Fogarty won the Martin Pipe on Don Poli in 2014.
Report Can't Catch Me March 4, 2016 1:16 PM GMT
Time catches up with all of us ff!
Report illinois_riki March 4, 2016 4:00 PM GMT
He confirmed Shortall rides Tully East for him in Martin Pipe - he didn't say who was riding Ballychorus for NH Chase but I assumed Shortall - mea culpa
Report Leonardo March 5, 2016 5:46 PM GMT
Nina on Southfield Royale according to N Mullholland on Twitter
Report stevo1 March 5, 2016 11:59 PM GMT
Noble Endeavor wins this rock solid hurdle form and chase form, hopefully more to come on at 12s.
Also stable have good record in race.
Report Can't Catch Me March 6, 2016 12:07 AM GMT
Thought Measureofmydreams beat him quite easily last time and is unexposed. Fancy him to beat him again myself.
Report stevo1 March 6, 2016 12:28 AM GMT
Yes he did CCM but not sure if coming over? If confirmed will be having saver on.
Report Can't Catch Me March 6, 2016 8:16 AM GMT
Hope he is mate as have backed him! The fact he's generally 16-1 but 10-1 with Paddy suggests he is.
Report wellchief March 6, 2016 10:17 AM GMT
With Rule the World running today, that might clear the path for Roi de Francs in this.  Can't see them turning Rule the World round twice in 10 days, and with NMH in the RSA, Giggi would surely put Roi de Francs in this?

I think he is a genuine graded performer, who burst the Pont Alexandre bubble.  He beat Pont by 1.5lengths, but Outlander only beat Pont by 4, and that was when Pont made an absolute mess of the last, and Outlander is second fav for the Grade 1 JLT.

He's also had Noble Endeavour behind him this year too.  He'd be the one for me in this if they let him take his chance.

Been wrong before, but how Minella Rocco is favourite for this I don't know; just can't work that one out.
Report scooby91 March 6, 2016 11:55 AM GMT
Measureofmydreams and southfield royale for me.
Only a guess but think patrick will be measureofmydreams.
Report roobuck March 6, 2016 12:03 PM GMT
Already have Native River but added Measureofmydreams. Tempted by 16s but taken 12s NRNB. Will surely be single figures if turns up
Report scooby91 March 6, 2016 3:14 PM GMT
Iv heard bonny kate goes for this race to be ridden by jonathon moore.
Don't know much about the jockey, but I quite like the horse, she's very genuine and gets the trip.  She might not be as highly rated as a couple of others but she's not without a chance. Put a few quid on at 140.0 and 120.0 on here and the price is still available.
Report shockster March 6, 2016 3:36 PM GMT
Read on Twitter that RDF will join NMH and go to the RSA.
Report delsie777 March 6, 2016 5:32 PM GMT
Moore is attached to Noel Meade's stable and rode the winner of the Leinster National today for Jim Dreaper
Report roobuck March 6, 2016 5:38 PM GMT
Measureofmydreams' form further enhanced today then
Report stevo1 March 6, 2016 7:40 PM GMT
According to Meade today on ATR Bonny Kate not going.
Report scooby91 March 6, 2016 7:52 PM GMT
Haven't seen that as iv been out. But if that's what mead himself  said,  it must be the truth. Only had a few quid on anyway.
Report stevo1 March 6, 2016 7:55 PM GMT
Yeah was on about 5ish on ATR Road to Riches,Monksland and Waxies Dargle are 3 that travel.
Report scooby91 March 6, 2016 8:02 PM GMT
Thanks for that.
Report Giggsta March 9, 2016 10:05 PM GMT
Pont Alexandre left in - anyone know if Patrick will ride? Had heard Ricci had said he was going RSA but numbers on here indicate 4 miler.
Report Sir Gary Neville March 10, 2016 9:47 AM GMT
Anyone know who's likely to be on Native River? Was hoping for Nina after DOC jumped off but that doesn't sound possible now.
Report shockster March 10, 2016 4:50 PM GMT
Mr M Legg on Native River.
Report stevo1 March 10, 2016 7:29 PM GMT
Jockey booking doesnt fill one with confidence.
Report the bloob March 10, 2016 8:37 PM GMT
really? Sportinglife shows Mr M Legg with 7 winners from last 50 rides and +£12 level stakes, can't say I watch many amateur races but that looks like a decent record to me
Report festivalfanatic March 10, 2016 8:43 PM GMT
He's not that experienced but has ridden plenty for Tizzard and Harry Fry, to whose yard I believe he is attached. Think he's had a few spins round Cheltenham in the past couple of years too. I wouldn't be pessimistic on the jockey front if the horse is good enough.
Report roobuck March 10, 2016 8:48 PM GMT
Dangerous when it's a Gigginstown horse, but ever more optimistic re Measureofmydreams. Form really stacks up against Noble Endeavour and Roi des Francs who they believe good enough for RSA. Great value imo
Report ReaseHeath March 10, 2016 9:44 PM GMT
Had a good look at this today, appreciate the conditions of the race now favour the alleged classier types but RdF does n't look like he's going to run, Noble Endeavour looks a doubtful stayer and Minella Rocco has jumping issues.

The one that's been overlooked by the market for me is Vieux Lion Rouge - certainly in terms of his profile and rating, ran well at Ascot last time behind a horse with a massive engine, his course form would n't bear much scrutiny but he's been pretty highly tried and was still going OK when unseating behind Aachen in that race where the latter was given too much rope.

Pedigree suggests stamina should n't be an issue and his granddad has two festival winners in L'Antartique and Fondmort.

33s available and generally 25s NRNB or 70 on here just too big so I'm in.

Quite like Ballychorus too but will hold fire for now.
Report scooby91 March 10, 2016 9:58 PM GMT
With rdf being confirmed rsa. Looks like Patricks got the choice of the 3 mullins runners,
Sambremont
Pleasent company who is an intended runner at 120.0
And measureofmydreams.
Would be shocked if he dosent choose the latter.
Report Flashy March 10, 2016 10:23 PM GMT
Vicenzo looks way overpriced to me...top rated have excellent record in race and looks as though it will stay.
Report thelegend March 10, 2016 10:23 PM GMT
what about Pont Alexandre??
Report scooby91 March 10, 2016 10:41 PM GMT
Rich ricci and joe chambers have said twice in last week pont goes rsa.
Report duffy March 11, 2016 12:31 AM GMT
Pont still shows signs that he remains classy with the way he goes through his races but he needs to contest a race that provides the least chance of him having to find something off of the bridal, as he finds little, with NMH and MOT in the RSA, that's a non-starter, his only chance would be the 4 miler and hope he simply outclasses them.
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