Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
I have a feeling Mullins Cheltenham 4 miler is making his chase debut tomorrow at Navan - Black Hercules. Patrick is always desperate for a good ride in this race and has always had a soft spot for the horse, it would be no surprise to me if he was the one. I remember listening to a podcast before Cheltenham 2014 when he said he let his heart rule his head when picking Black Hercules over Shaneshill in the Champion Bumper. I've had a few quid on at 16/1 with Paddy Power.
Pre Cheltenham 2014:
The amateur rider son of trainer Willie Mullins has plumped for Black Hercules over stablemates Killultagh Vic and Shaneshill in a race his father has already won a staggering eight times.
He knows all three horses well having ridden them in all their bumper races so far, but Black Hercules, a convincing winner of both his starts under Rules, is the one for him as he was jointly responsible for buying him.
"Myself and my cousin (Emmet) bought Black Hercules as a young horse so I have an affinity for him. That's why I'm on him, " he said.
"He won his point-to-point and he's a strong stayer. He travelled over great. I think he'll handle the ground. It's obviously much better than he's handled before, but I think he will.
"To me he's a gorgeous horse. Mr (Graham) Wylie bought him and for him to win was a huge weight off the shoulders. Black Hercules is a real three-mile chaser and needs a real gallop to be seen at his best."
Anyone else have any thoughts on the race? Something different from the usual novice hurdle threads at least ...
Pre Cheltenham 2014:
The amateur rider son of trainer Willie Mullins has plumped for Black Hercules over stablemates Killultagh Vic and Shaneshill in a race his father has already won a staggering eight times.
He knows all three horses well having ridden them in all their bumper races so far, but Black Hercules, a convincing winner of both his starts under Rules, is the one for him as he was jointly responsible for buying him.
"Myself and my cousin (Emmet) bought Black Hercules as a young horse so I have an affinity for him. That's why I'm on him, " he said.
"He won his point-to-point and he's a strong stayer. He travelled over great. I think he'll handle the ground. It's obviously much better than he's handled before, but I think he will.
"To me he's a gorgeous horse. Mr (Graham) Wylie bought him and for him to win was a huge weight off the shoulders. Black Hercules is a real three-mile chaser and needs a real gallop to be seen at his best."
Anyone else have any thoughts on the race? Something different from the usual novice hurdle threads at least ...
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 158
|
By:
All last season I thought milsean was an absolute plodder,and when it rained in the ab I had a good few quid Ew on,so for me that would be my pick,probably not as good as some of his others but will stay,although slightly worried it hasn't been out,wonder if anyone has any news on the horse?
|
|
By:
Read post on here little while back,Milsean had setback,he hasnt any entries at present.
|
|
By:
Cheers stevo
|
|
By:
Southfield Royale & Aubusson are 2 I have in mind for this race.
|
|
By:
I'd say Native River at this stage looks a player for me. Could end up going for the RSA, but in my eyes I don't think he would be classy enough for that. 16/1 seems about right until a confirmed runner.
|
|
By:
Shantou Flyer for me, was in good form going for Drinmore but couldn't cope with the top 3 milers and the trainer said the plan was the National anyway so they'll give him another prep over hurdles before going for it. He's a class act, will stay and the target is clear.
|
|
By:
I like Black Hercules for this , but the bet has to be the 14's with Hills for any race in case they go down the RSA route.
|
|
By:
Wish I knew that sooner wellchief, I'm annoyed at myself for taking the 16's with PP. I was told a couple of weeks before Aubusson made his chase debut to back him for the RSA gutfeeling, although plans can change in an instant as we all know.
|
|
By:
Nice chase debut from Black Hercules, jumped and travelled well.
|
|
By:
Black hercules.
He jumped well and I particularly like the way that he quickened. He has the rsa chase wrote all over him Not my words, w p mullins |
|
By:
Aye WPM may like the look of the RSA now, but he has the likes of NMH to contend with and as we know with WPM, if the 4 miler looks more winnable, he'll point him in that direction.
|
|
By:
Onenightinvienna is said by his trainer to be targeted at the race. Already rated 151 by the official handicapper, sound jumper, effective at Cheltenham, shapes like he will be well suited by the trip. Plenty of mileage for me in his current price of 10/1.
|
|
By:
Massive Shantou Flyer fan, done me well so far this season. Clearly well below top class but he is a real trier and loves good ground, looks like he will stay. A classier horse may well beat him but he is the type who wont be out of the first 4 imo.
|
|
By:
A big thing with the 4 mile chase is the jockey , I'd rather like onenightinvienna myself but if it's not going to be ridden by an Irish amateur then you are at a distinct disadvantage. English amateurs are a huge liability compared to the likes of Codd Carberry Mullins O Connor etc. I'd say Hobbs will go with an English rider and that's a huge mistake.
|
|
By:
I wouldn't call Shantou Flyer well below top class, he's a G2 winner himself, its just not in the top 3m bracket but not that far back. 4m would suit him better as he's classy and stays well enough. Like I said above the fact that the target is clear makes it a far better AP proposition than most in the market.
|
|
By:
Is 10-1 Onenightinvienna really value 4 months out? If he gets there he will be around that price or bigger by the time everyone has steamed into the chosen mounts of the aforementioned Codd, Carberry and O'Connor. Then you will have the probable favourite - whatever Willie Mullins lines up for Patrick. I would want 33's for anything in this race at the moment - particularly an English horse. The bookies are sucking you in, mate - look for value.
|
|
By:
It depends on who rides it really, if Jamie Codd rode it then it would be 5 or 6 , but if a Brod Munro Wilson impersonator gets the leg up then it will be 10/1 minimum.
Bon O Neill is already guaranteed to ride Shantou Flyer, he knows the horse inside out and that must be a help. After saying that its unlikely to win but it could run ok for a while. |
|
By:
The '82 Foxhunter Chase in all its glory, is available on You Tube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=Ytp8PoN3JUE |
|
By:
Delsie, it's all a matter of opinion, of course, but I think you're underestimating (a) the fact that the horse is definitely being targeted at the race, unlike many of the others being canvassed on here, and (b) the significance of that 151 mark. It's way above the official rating going into the race of the vast majority of horses that run in it. Check it out. In the last five years, no horse rated above 151 has taken part. Two rated exactly 151 have run - one won and the other was beaten a neck. And Onenightinvienna could yet improve on that rating. As for the jockey, is it really likely that Hobbs is going to target the race with the horse and then put up someone who's not up to the job? The horse could stand on a stone the night before, of course, but if he runs he must go off a lot shorter than 10/1.
|
|
By:
I agree the rating is appealing, gussie - but the value of the price is my point. It's so long until the festival. Anyway, if it does line up I agree it has a good chance and I wish you the best of luck with your pick. I know the owners are keen to go down the Grand National route long term.
|
|
By:
Hobbs put up Ciaran Gethings on horses at the last couple of festivals, and Mr C Smith on another.
One things certain if Onenightinvienna is ridden by them kind of jockeys then its in big trouble. |
|
By:
For mullins my idea of the runners would be.
Pont alexandre willie and ruby raving it could go 3 4 or 5 miles and keeps galloping all day. Rois des francs willie nominated as it's likely target and the o learys may agree. Sabremont also mentioned by willie as his logical target and may be well handicapped. |
|
By:
Have to say dome cash has come for pont alexandre today. Both on the exchanges and the books
|
|
By:
If Pont Alex gets as far as the Festival, he will run in the RSA
|
|
By:
get the feeling ruby wants to ride something else in the RSA and wants PA out of the way
|
|
By:
Delsie. if your that certain I'd get some money down to lay pont for the 4 miler on here because there's plenty being matched.
|
|
By:
The only time you may see Sambremont at Cheltenham he will be twirling on a skewer.
If he is to win a race then maybe Kilbeggan might be more his dish |
|
By:
Is he being quoted for the 4 miler on here. scoob? i thought all the money was for the RSA?
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
Apologies. I seen him blue with 3 firms on oddschecker and noticed paddies shortened him also, all obvs without him running today. I wrongly assumed he was in the exchange market.
|
|
By:
No - he's being backed for the RSA on here and for everything with the bookies - mainly on the back of Willie saying he won't be risked over Christmas. I think Ruby is keen to aim him solely at the RSA maybe even without a prep
|
|
By:
After listening to the final furlong podcast I'd be of the opinion ROID DES FRANCS is the P intended ride of Patrick mullins in the 4 miler. they were keen to stress that that may change with the owner. but with NMH monksland and outlander for the rsa, I can see them more likely to let him line up than don poli was.
|
|
By:
Don't think Monksland is Gigginstown. Pink colours I do believe.
|
|
By:
Yes your right I don't know why I always think he's a giggi horse. Prob because noel meade
|
|
By:
In Monday's Monday Jury of the Racing Post, Paddy was saying how he's praying he's allowed to ride Pont Alexandre in it.
|
|
By:
Thanks for that davey
Certainly what the money's saying. |
|
By:
|
|
By:
I take your point and it could well be these days.
But I always take note when one of willies shorten without a run across the board. it's all speculation and quite possibly Patrick himself dosent even know his ride in the race yet. I personally would put it down to roi des francs or pont alexandre but I won't be backing anything in the race until nrnb. This time last year 50% of bets would of been on Wounded warrior or don poli and we all know how that worked out. |
|
By:
Think Native River ran an excellent trial for this today.
Got outpaced mid-race after jumping well, then stayed on very nicely after the front two got away. Cheltenham will suit him more and, unfortunately for my RSA bet on him, I think the longer race will too. |
