Willie Mullins Novice Hurdlers

maybe there is a pattern with his absolute top drawer novice hurdlers emerging - look at the distance of their first hurdle race for the stable

Champagne fever 2m
Vautour 2m
Douvan 2m
Faugheen 2m 6
Pont Alexander 2m 4

also look at who owns them

his second/third strings dont follow this pattern so perhaps he is less precise with these and they sort of pick up the scraps

I remember they did this with Vautour last season for the Arkle. Pushed him out early doors as they knew he wasn't Arkle bound. Ruby must tell them info

Blimey, the man has got some high class problem placing that lot. While we're on the subject I still have a strong liking for his Potters Point....wont realise potential over hurdles but may go well at a price in the AB or Neptune and more importantly I think will be a major contender for the RSA next year. Just my musings.....

So CVB finally gets to see the illusive MIN tomorrow. This should be fun - Allez Colombieres or Douvan?

I hear they think a lot of Nambour but may go chasing .

Hard not to be impressed with Min. May have beaten very little but did it very nicely and thought he was very quick over his hurdles. One of those horses who seems to get his feet down as soon as he is over them.

I've been very impressed with Petit Mouchoir to date and kind of didn't want to see an impressive performance from min, but I did like the way he came right away in double quick time at the end.

Hills and Coral 4-1

What a joke.

Happy to stick with PM to date.

Me too Duffy re. Petit Mouchoir. Was hoping Min would blow them away so they'd go for Neptune/AB with PM. Still think better then 50/50 chance of that happening giving he is a P2P winner. imo

So much for that big PP drift on Min out to 14/1 recently. Just AP games.

Can't see the so well informed PP offering any more 14-1 anytime soon. That was an impressive debut - very slick indeed.

my view fwiw  - dont give paddy the power - they realise many think they know stuff - so the honeymoon period when they built trust maybe over - now they could be abusing trust - my view  dont be either persuaded nor dissuaded by their (imo) price manipulations - i wonder how many were ironically put off from backing min ap because pp were biggest - treat their games with the contempt they deserve by ignoring them - back your own view and if you're right take the credit and if you're wrong take the blame - letting a bookmaker influence your bet is counter intuitive to being a successful gambler i reckon

2m2f on soft ground and he flew away at the end. Could still be a Neptune horse.

miltons. I dont really see your point.

I dont think PP are 'playing games'. If they are brave enough to put their neck out and go stand out top price on a few, then surely that should be applauded? All they are doing is giving punters value at the end of the day? You are sytaing rhey deserve contempt for giving us bigger prices on some runners than everyone else?

If some (like myself) happen to take note of them doing this, and that has paid off a number of times over the last couple of season, then surely we are perfectly entitled to do so? You clearly think its nonsense and thats up to you.

ccm - you are doing exactly what i am recommending so we agree - and yes you dont get my point

Can you explain why they should be treated with contempt for giving you value then?

they shouldnt - i will try and exlpain this as best i can - i have read on a number of threads comments that indicate people believe pp have accurate info regarding certain horse / yards / race destinations - lets say in order to build trust that at first when they have this good info they go shorter than others on a race that the horse ends up running in and longest the race it doesnt. if this happens a few times then people start to trust they have good info and trust they are responding linearly to that info - in other words they will be shortest for the race it runs in and longest for the other (the same principle applies for other scenarios e.g. lets say their prices indicate a knowledge about pecking order and their prices turn out to be an accurate reflection of this knowledge) i.e. the horse they had biggest turns out to have less ability.

so punters see the disparity with other firms conclude pp were right and other firms wrong and punters trust pp have better info.

once the trust is established they then have the power to manipulate peoples thinking - so if people think they know what they are doing they may purposely avoid a horse that is biggest with them because they think they know something - so they were biggest on min for supreme - people may then assume they are biggest for a reason because they have been proven right before - and be very cautious about (or not trust the big price) and some may be put off backing it for this reason

all i was trying to say when i said maybe the honeymoon is over (and this was only aimed at people that think their price anomalies are a reflection of an honest reaction to their knoweldge) that if they believe people trust them to be honestly reflecting their knowledge in their prices that maybe they arent honestly reflecting their knowledge all the time now (this is what i mean by abusing trust) and are purposefully short or big on different horses to manipulate how a punter thinks about that horse. I was recommending that people should ignore what they are doing and not let them afffect how they think about a horse. in other words if they like a horse or think a horse will run in a race that pp are suspiciusly big for then back your own opinion and dont be influenced by whatever they are doing with the markets.

This would be much easier to explain with a white board and marker pens

bear with me as this takes ages to type out and is a huge investment of my time and i am only trying to help

You could say what you mean in one..ish sentence.

If you fancy a horse that PP are biggest on, think to yourself yummy, thanks PP...don't think, oh, it's got no chance/won't run if they are the biggest, I won't back it then.

duffy - yes if i only wanted to state the 'what' but  i also wanted to explain the 'why' which takes a lotnger and is more helpful imo

sorry

thanks duffy

Milton

I can see that you are going to be a great addition to the forum..in a kind of headmaster sort of way

Its a theory alright Personally, I'd suggest they are a bit too clever for their own good if their tactic to avoid liabilities on certain horses is to be top price across the board. I just cant see that as a realistic option.

We could argue ad finitum though tbh. Plenty think its nonsense, I like to take note, so probably bet just leaving it there. I think its noticeable they are still stand out price on Min though. After a very impressive debut, with connections who have an unbelievablele record in the race, they are still trying to 'get' the horse. Its also worth noting they were shortest price Douvan all last winter.

omg i am not a big fan of headmasters - (apologies to any hm out there) if you are reading and you are one i am sure you are a really good person - i will try and adapt my style a little

ccm - i am not saying i am right i am saying its a possibility - and trusting a book  maker more than your own instincts/beliefs is not something i could recommend to anyone - thats why i say ignore it altogether rather than take a view that they are either manipulating (if you take a cynical view) or being honest (if you trust them)

I was thinking more of the endearing Robert Donat playing Mr. Chips.

MS, I dont base my whole betting strategy on what PP does! AS I have said, I like to take note and consider it as a factor. I personally think ignoring it altogether is folly. Anyway, good luck!

wasnt thinking for one minute that you do - and even if you do i would wish you good luck  - my post was more aimed at anybody that was finding themseleves getting a little stressed with wondering whether to trust them or not and was finding their view on a horse being affected a little more than they would want it to be

Very impressed with bellshill there myself beating a fair horse in tycoon price easily. He improved with each race last season and is doing the same this season. Expecting plenty of more from this fella and stayed the 2m4 really well.

When interviewed after the race Ruby was very keen. He made it clear he preferred Bellshill over Yorkhill so the Mullins novice hurdlers conundrum is no clearer. If Ruby wants to ride Bellshill at Cheltenham would that suggest he could be Albert Bartlett bound because Rich Ricci doesn't have a lot for AB but has good options for Supreme and Neptune. Patrick Mullins also hinted at AB for Bellshill earlier in season. Travels well with good finishing speed. Perfect for AB. Also if he goes to the Slaney Novice Hurdle next as suggested on ATR after the race that is the exact same route Briar Hill took before his Albert Bartlett run for same owner/trainer. At this point I will declare a vested interest in the fact I have a 20/1 AP voucher for Bellshill to win the AB. Have I convinced you all ?

I like the cut of miltons jib. This place is where the intelligent people come to discuss the interesting, the intricate, the bizarre and in an informed way. Far better than Horse Racing where they take turns to see who can lob a turd the furthest.

One thing he alights on which I try to keep uppermost in mind in my considerations is we are dealing with a constantly changing puzzle both in the actors on the stage, the directors, stage hands, those who put these "plays" on and those selling the tickets. I try not to get too wedded to any view and the older I get the less intransigent I get.

I don't have that kind of information but it would be another layer to this cake if we knew the movement in terms of volume with ante post. The years haven't been kind to the ante post markets in my view. If I go back 15 and more years quite a bit of my betting would be done through the season and even a good way in advance of that for a meeting like Cheltenham. In my view most if not nearly all of the ante post juice has been squeezed out by the layers. How this affects others I don't know but it isn't often I get involved now. Increased races and likely targets also affect this for someone who takes a view on what they observe rather than what they hear or know from connections. On top of that the day of race markets can be remarkably generous in comparison to some of the ante post prices which are now offered. That's before we even get into practical considerations like ground conditions on the day etc.

Like I say I don't know how this affects volumes traded but in my view there aren't that many opportunities to take a view based on the evidence presented which are worth getting stuck into until the picture is clear and often even on the day itself.

Sorry HB... But did you just listen to what WPM said?!

Sounds like he won't be going any further than 2m4f tbh.

CCM. I switched over to the footy after listening to Ruby. Was Willie saying he wasn't going to step him up ? If yes, doesn't help my case but doesn't close the door. Willie has been known to tell a porky or two in the past and mislead us AP punters more than any other trainer in the history of this great sport.

Yorkhill and Bellshill aren't both going to run in the Neptune and Ruby will be telling Wylie neither of them can beat Min in the Supreme so I am sat happy on my Bellshill 20/1 Albert Bartlett voucher.

Bellshill seems perfect for the Neptune to me - perfect blend of speed and a decent bit of stamina. Can't see any reason why any other race would be on the agenda

Willie said yorkhill bellshill and min could all run in the 2m4 races and any of them could just as easily run in the 2m grade 1 races too. I'm on  min neptune at 50s aswell as 25s supreme. bellshill 8s any race. 20s bartlett. 34.0 supreme and 14/1 neptune  and yorkhill 10s any race. 16/1 neptune and 34.0 supreme. Long dog 12s any race.
My personal thoughts are
Min and yorkhill supreme
Neptune.   bellshill american tom
Bartlett.  Pylon the pressure Nambour and up for review
Long dog barlett/ neptune
Bachasson (Martin pipe / neptune)

Missed out petit mouchoir (likely supreme)  original plan was to run over further put pulled like a train. may settle better in a better race. Talking through my pocket I hope he steps up in trip.
Neptune 46.0
Bartlett 16s
Likely lost my stakes here

"Missed out petit mouchoir (likely supreme) original plan was to run over further put pulled like a train."

Just curious where you heard about his original plan? tia

Maelduin
Gordon elliott said after winning the goffs landrover bumper that "he's not the quickest in the world but he stays all day long, hes sure to win plenty of races for willie mullins"
willie said on irish racing.com that he wanted to start off over 2m4+ but he has a strong head carriage at home so he may be easier to ride at 2.
Willie said today on atr christmas special that he will run in the Deloite novice hurdle over 2m2 then see how he gets on there an if he has to run him over 2 miles or not.

Thanks. Was hoping we'd see him over Christmas.

thanks eternal - couldnt agree more re volume - i think it would be incredibly revealing - also 100% agree re your ante post points - i started typing my views on the future of punting on horse racing and so on but deleted it all because a) didnt want to be too down beat and 2) didnt want to take the thread off track - suffice to say i have been closed down now by nearly everyone and of the remaining few my bets are severely restricted - whenever i win now it feels like another nail in my coffin.

One of the  reasons i have been posting more is to try and help people avoid some of the mistakes i made earlier in my punting days. The lessen that took me longest to learn and proved most useful financially was humility. Or put another way the stronger my convictions the less i won.

Just wanted to pick up a point made on here regarding day of race markets being generous compared to antepost markets. I agree that the level of competition between bookmakers does make for loads of day of race incentives - but what are they actually offering? OK - you will get the odd headline grabber like, 2-1 Faugheen for example - but only for pathetic amounts. Nearly always they are offering enhanced prices on horses that they have a good idea won't be winning. Horses they have heard are off colour or not sparkling. last year we were bombarded with 'special prices' about horses like Sprinter, Sire De Grugy and Josses Hill. The first two could barely raise a gallop at the time and the last named couldn't jump! Where's the value there?
I think people have lost sight of what antepost betting is about. It's about getting an edge, taking a punt. It's about backing Douvan for the Supreme at 16-1 the minute he crossed the line on his debut - not after he's won again and is 5-2 fav. Any idiot can do that. At 5-2 he is clearly no longer any value. At that point you wait for the day. It's the people who took a punt on Min at 50-1 - not weighing in at 4's and 5's now he's had a run. Of course it doesn't always work - that's the point! It's not meant to be easy but boy, is it a great feeling when you pull it off! There is nothing clever about backing a horse at 7-1 three months in advance when it's likely to go off at 6-1 on the day. That's three months of stress for hardly any benefit. Only you know what you consider value, but set the bar high, set 16 or 20-1 as a starting point, have fewer bets and revel in the glory when you hit a good one.

Absolutely agree with Delsie there on some points regarding day of race markets and perhaps losing sight of what AP is all about. When people are saying AP betting is dead, they have a good point BUT most of the complaints relating to ante-post value almost certainly revolve around Mullins. Any other trainer wouldn't inspire that kind of support or panic with the bookies. Like it or not, he is the most likeliest trainer around to fire in the winners. The bookies know this. They can't lose because the faith punters have in Mullins has been demonstrated in the past and they also know those punters will still keep betting Mullins' horses. This isn't like the Flat where a middle distance horse could go to France, Hong Kong, Ascot, America or even Australia for his end of year target over either 10f or 12f. With the jumps, everybody knows Cheltenham is the target and if he's good enough, just working out the race is the puzzle.

Going back to a few years ago, the bookies were clipping prices in advance of a trial run then clipping them further after they've already proven they are alive and nothing more and yet, the market will continue to support Mullins' horses. So we have a choice. Get involved (with Mullins' horses) in ante-post betting as early as the summer or wait. But if you waited for even Ricci to give his interview to ATR, Min's price collapsed from 25/1 to 12/1 without even running! Same for Moon Racer when Pipe confirmed the Supreme as the target.

The difference? Punters trust Mullins much more then they do David Pipe in the same way they'd retain blind faith in Aidan O'Brien over someone like Dermot Weld. These days everything is relative. I jumped on Min at 7s after playing a couple of others in the Supreme at 33s and 25s. Is 7/1 value? Not really but it's all relative these days. You know if he turns up healthy on the day, he'll be the 6/4 favourite or even odds on and he'll be in the book. For me, I have no regrets having him onside as I can sit tight at this stage or chip away on other bigger priced horses and treat Min as the saver.

i think there are 18 cheltenham ante post markets to date - i get the novice races are attractive because of the chance of finding a nugget (and how good it feels to get it right) but when i talk about ante post personally i am talking as a whole not just a few novice races - you only have to look at the number of views on the different threads to see which races we are obsessed with - it is almost like the mullins trained novice conundrum is in danger of becoming all consuming - luckily the gold cup looks interesting this year

sorry should clarify - obviously mean recent views and recent threads - not those that are 2/3 years old

I understand what you're saying Delsie and we do have to adapt, die or move on and if people can do well backing horses which haven't raced in this country, for races unspecified, often in different disciplines (the number of people who seem to pile in ante post for races like The Arkle etc because a horse was a good hurdler) then fair enough.

Haven't really got an opinion yet on all of the mullins novices,trying not to after losing a packet on Vautour in the arkle last year,the one thing I would say is it takes the spotlight off some of the others,I think yanworth is a great price at 20s for the supreme,Alan king likes to run one in it,as does jp mcmanus,jumps and travels,and also barters hill was so so impressive beating north hill Harvey first time out,who has since won,didn't barters hill beat yorkhill at aintree,if it was trained by mullins it would be 6-1 favourite for the ab.

Supreme - MIN (no Wylie runner).

Neptune - BELLSHILL (after today's performance I've changed my mind, had him originally down as AB bound).

Albert Bartlett - YORKHILL (Up For Review won't make Cheltenham, Ruby as usual will get his way and will convince Wylie to run Yorkhill here allowing him to ride 3 potential favourites in the novice hurdles. Regardless of previous comments re Yorkhill's speed etc, Bellshill has the form in the book and was very impressive today. Yorkill is by Presenting and is a PTP winner, the 3 miles won't be an issue).

Worth bearing in mind Bellshill made his hurdling debut over 2m before being upped to 2m4 today, whereas Yorkhill made his hurdling debut over 2m4. Just waiting on someone hitting me with "but Faugheen ran over 3m on heavy ground before being dropped in trip to win the Neptune and Champion Hurdle" - yes, I know.

While we are on the subject of Wylie horses, I have a feeling Mullins Cheltenham 4 miler is making his chase debut tomorrow at Navan - Black Hercules. Patrick Mullins bought this horse after winning his PTP and has always had a soft spot for him, I remember listening to a podcast before Cheltenham 2014 when he said he let his heart rule his head when picking Black Hercules over Shaneshill in the Champion Bumper. Patrick is always desperate for a decent ride in the 4 miler and it would be no surprise to me if this is the one. I've had a few quid on at 16/1 with Paddy Power anyway.

scooby91
     13 Dec 15 18:57

Maelduin
Gordon elliott said after winning the goffs landrover bumper that "he's not the quickest in the world but he stays all day long, hes sure to win plenty of races for willie mullins"


Surprised to hear that commented, He looks to have bags of speed to me and have backed him for the Supreme, him and min are the two I've been most impressed with.

Jaysus lads AP betting is not a science. How can anyone call someone clever or idiotic when value is completely subjective and in these cases (4 months b4 Cheltenham) based on cursory information.

You can have a great edge betting AP if you're a low stakes bettor. Many Big bettors don't see the point because a) you can't get big stakes on b) too many unknowns. Some of them would argue that anyone that backs a horse without knowing all the variables are idiots. I can see their point but being a low stakes bettor i find AP betting to be great fun and at times very profitable (relatively speaking).

Here's a laugh for you - Spoke to a guy who backed Allbalk Des Places for the Triumph cause of the WPM/Ricci connection (he read he owned him on Twitter). When i told him that Ricci didn't own the horse he threw a wobbler and cursed the "lost" bet.

Interesting interview with willie earlier on atr.
"Bellshill will go for the Grade One in Naas, the Lawlor's Hotel," said Mullins.

"I think Yorkhill, Bellshill and Min could easily go back to two miles, while the rest of novices could be Neptune or Albert Bartlett horses.

"Hopefully some more nice novices might come to light, but they are the best at the moment."


Looks like petit mouchoir may be stepping up in trip.

Willie Mullins Christmas feature on atr. Said "Bellshill will go 2 and a half, but wouldn't rule him out coming back for the supreme novices hurdle as he's a very good horse"

I think it's up in the air with Yorkhill and Bellshill with which is Supreme and which is Neptune.

Well, I know it's a deep race today and I am a little concerned but still didn't expect to see PM at double figure odds...really like him and hoping for a big showing later on today.

little concerned about his hurdling that is

Got to start giving long dog credit, he stuck to his job very well there. Was also impressed with tombstone and especially petit mouchoir who I will give great credit to Jacques Ricou who managed to di what brian cooper couldn't and settled him very nicely, now he can be steeped up in trip, i think he's a horse of great potential

Really liked how Petit Mouchoir stayed on there. Pocket talking but would love to see him tested over 2 1/2 nile plus.

I'm getting confused about where to post things now!

As per the Supreme thread:

Very good performance from Long Dog there in what looked the best renewal of the Future Champions for a long time. Reckon that's up there with the best piece of novice hurdle form this year for me.

On that display he looks a Supreme horse rather than Neptune to me. Could muddy the waters with Min. If the latter wins well over 2m4f next time, will be interesting to see what RR does with the pair of them.

Agree about Petit Mouchoir. Great run from one so inexperienced.

My PM supreme hopes have been dealt a blow today, not from a speed point of view but my reservations about his jumping have shown up again, he's just too sticky at his hurdles for that race...Neptune looks likely now for him...well done LD....Tombstone also comes out with huge credit as he was far too keen early doors, in a faster pace supreme I'd be happy to have him beating LD.

good bit of placing by Mullins id say, Long Dog is best on the soft ground and is winning all he can on it. come spring he wont be winning at any festivals. If he does turn up at Cheltenham his aim will be the Neptune as Ricci said yesterday Min is being trained for the supreme.

No American Tom in the intended race on Sunday. Any ideas where he's at and where he goes?

Want some nicer ground I believe

Cheers Delsie.

CVByrne, I now think if you swap Bellshill to Neptune and Yorkhill to Supreme you're spot on with Wylie's runners. Spot on with Ricci's runners, spot on with Nambour for the AB. Petit Mouchoir and Bachasson are not my idea of Cheltenham and really have no idea where they go from here.

Not my idea of Cheltenham winners*

I think that one of Petit Mouchoir or Nampour could be Martin Pipe types - probably PM with Nampour going down the AB route depending on how it goes tomorrow

Looks like Up For Review for the Albertt Bartlett a good call.

Up for Review loves this winter ground. Still question mark over whether he's as effective on better ground.

Petit Mouchoir for the Martin Pipe? Thought he looked better then that but you could well be right given WPM/Gigginstown record in the race. Time to step him up Willie.

I diddnt back up for review at 20s and so pissed at myself, as I heard the same thing about wanting soft, and poss miss festival.
But both ruby and willie before and after this race and the last race emphasised the soft ground was not in his favour and he also said today he ran too often and went over the top last year and is likely he won't run again before cheltenham.
Gritted my teeth and backed him with hills at 8s. Along with shantou village any race at 10s.
Leaves me with also
Barters hill 10/1 any race.
If either barters or shantou go neptune the other 2 will collapse in price Imo.

Nambour likely Martin pipe now I'd say. As someone mentioned was poss before.

I still think pylon the pressure is in with an outside shout, as not beaten too far at all by tombstone over an inadequate trip and was well clear of the rest.
Imo he ran with great credit behind bellshil in the champion bumper at punchestown once again over an inadequate trip.
Imo new be a better shout than gangster who I think is fully exposed over hurdles and was the best of a poor bunch in his graded race.

You're a great man for the quotes from connections scooby.

I'm really surprised they said he wouldn't like winter ground cause he looks like he relishes it to me. If he was OTT last year when running on better ground then fair enough as that would explain his lacklustre runs. I'm certainly not one to second guess those guys. GL

People were obsessed with Paddy not having him in the AB betting. They have now!

I don't think anyone has mentioned PP not having horses in the betting delsie. It's them making moves to go longest and get horses that was being discussed.

Ok, sorry CCM - just heard it mentioned somewhere that Up For Review couldn't be going for the Bartlett because Paddy didn't have it in the list

Paddy diddnt have yorkhill in the betting for the supreme until after the 1st run. They haven't laid a penny more than 12s.
Same for up review straight in at 7s.
Biggest they have laid on min is 14s
One horse still missing and I'm guessing it's a very good one if you go by the above horses.
Karalee mares novice
Good work by the traders

Hey scoob - next they'll be convincing you that Pont Alex is going to go for the 4 miler.

I won't back the 4 mile until nrnb. But id put it down to
Being either Pont alexandre or roi des francs for patrick.
And Sabremont / pleasant company for someone else.

What about Black Hercules, buddy?

Rsa for me. Wylie came close before with Boston bob and I'd be 80% he'll line up in rsa.
For rich ricci Abre de vies may come in to the reckoning somewhere along the way,
As may aurko for jlt.

Arkle    douvan
Jlt      Shaneshill aurko /abre de vies poss outlander
Rsa      kilultagh vic, black hercules  pont/abre de vies poss outlander
4m       poss pont alexandre roi des francs

Injured but may come back. Milsean

Killultagh Vic is JLT bound IMO

Yorkhill supreme winner

Couldn't have bellshill so long dog for neptune

Up for review AB

Can't see any mullins beating shantou vill whatever race he runs in.

American Tom to win handicap at festival.

Im from the belief that Hercules will run in the 4 miler, just looks an out and out stayer to me. Pont has speed and class for the RSA- Wasn't he once billed as the Ricci Gold Cup horse? If that still reigns true then RSA would be where i'd imagine him to line up

After watching today and hearing owners comments, I am thinking Yorkhill will end up in the Neptune.

I wouldn't trust the comments at all Bud - smoke and mirrors.

Between Yorkshill and Bellshll there is no doubt at all in my mind that Yorkhill is the more likely Supreme winner. If they really thought the opposite then this weekends running plans just dont add up - Bellhill would have gone for the Tolworth with Yorkhill, who is still learning, running at Naas tomorrow. Bellshill was stuffed in the Festival Bumper and that type of horse never comes back to win a Supreme.

Having said that it probbaly all comes down to Min and Ruby Walsh. Last year they had Douvan who was obviously the best Supreme horse. Wylie had Shaneshill and Nichols Canyon. Everything I had seen suggested Shaneshill was the obvious Neptune trip horse and Nichols Canyon more a 2 miler. But because Nichols Canyon couldn't beat Douvan in the Supreme and Walsh wanted to ride him they ran him in the longer race and switched Shaensill to the Supreme - both got beat so hopefully they will learn from that mistake.

I expect Yorkhill will run next in the Delloite Hurdle over 2m2f which will just muddy the waters even more.

I wouldn't trust WPM as far as I could throw him....nor any other top trainer. They are not in it for us!

@unclepuncle, Douvan wouldn't stay beyond 2 and half, thats the reason they sent him Supreme. As for your joke of Douvan beating NC you need to look at Sub Lieutenant form when he was giving 3lb and was 6 lengths behind Sizing John in the race where NC started at 4/6 and unseated early on. That put SL around 3 lengths behind SJ at that stage and in the previous month SJ was 12 len behind Douvan. Well SL's next race was the Deloitte and he finished about 30 lengths behind NC. Later on at the festivals SJ was on average only 7 lengths bhind Douvan and at Aintree NC again beat SL by around 20 lengths. Here's a quote for you "To have a potential champion hurdler in the yard is huge, rather than a horse going for the Arkle" Guess who said it? initials are WPM.

As for Bellshill, I also have to disagree, I think he's much classier than YH who only just beat a 2nd/3rd Hendo string. Mullins explained that YK came today as thy have a small racing programme in Ire and he needed to see him over 2m. He's going to switch them(YK, BH, Min) around trips one more time each before deciding at which race they aim them but said that Ruby will be an important factor as he wants the best horse with him on board. These 3 are short enough now so if anyone's not in already then hold the ammo before couple of days of Cheltenham or place `any race` bets, alot could change depending on how they perform in their next start/s.

This is the first year in years that I haven't had a single bet in the Supreme, Neptune or Albert Bartlett at this stage, purely because of what's being discussed in this thread.

I think it'll be a wait until the day of the race, or at least when non runner no bet comes in.

The strength in depth of the Ricci/Wylie novice hurdlers is ridiculous this year.  Aside from Yanworth and Barters Hill, I'm struggling to find opposition to a Ricci/Wylie clean sweep of the novice hurdles.

Just remembered I back Wait for Me before his first hurdle run; p*ssing in the wind with that one

I'd love to see someone like Ben Pauling win the AB with Barters Hill though - I think that'd be a great story taking on the might of Mullins and Wylie.

Yeh,I know we should be ultra wary of connections comments,but Wylie was pretty adamant that Bellshill is the quicker of the Two.
Whether that determines the race they run in....who knows!!
I have a nice double with Yorkhill in the Neptune so I have to admit I am a tad biased!!
Mind you looking at that race yesterday I did think a step up would suit,although obviously the ground was a big factor.

Don't give up on WFM yet Chief.
See his next race first,he was a lot better last time.

^Agreed - I think WTM is a much more likely Suprmeme winner than Bellshill.

@tintin - a game of opinions but we'll have to agree to differ. You can throw all the collateral formlines at me you want, but there is no way I can have it that Nichols Canyon was considered a stronger candidate for the Supreme than Douvan and that they switched him just because they thought Douvan wouldn't stay the Neptune trip. Douvan was a massive hotpot whereas NC was only just favourite for the Neptune at 7/2 which given the amazing opening day Mullins had suggests he wasn't actually that strongly fancied.

Don't fancy NC for the Chjampion either - ymmv.

You've given me renewed optimism for WFM mate!

Re the Mullins novice hurdlers, recent history has shown us that because of connections their price is very short, either on the day or at this stage of the season.  Mullins does have a superb recent record in the novice hurdles, but if you pick the wrong one, you're usually taking a much shorter price than the horse otherwise would be if he was trained by someone else, so as obvious as it sounds, you need to be sure that you tread carefully when backing one.

Recent examples like Tell Us More and Alvisio Ville were in the top two or three in the Supreme and Neptune market this time last year.  Outlander went off second fav in the Neptune, Black Hercules was fav for the AB etc.

It's easy to look back now and say they should never have been those prices, but at the time, you never see it that way.  Based on that, the likes of Yourkhill, Bellshill, Min, Long Dog, Up for Review etc - the odds are one or two will win very well, but one or two will go off stupidly short and end up not being that good.

I felt then that WPM made a wrong decision in running Nichols Canyon (NC) in the Neptune instead of Shanehill, both on the same ownership, just because of Douvan - Shaneshill ran No More Heroes close over 20f but was outstayed; imagined what NC did to Faugheen in the Morgiana was replicated against Douvan in the Supreme 2015?; Black Hercules clearly did not stay in the Albert Bartlett in that going.

From experience I think WPM will run Yorkhill in the Supreme and Bellshill in the Neptune.

Bellshill will need to jump better if he goes for the Supreme. Won pulling a cart but it was shockingly uncompetitive race for a Grade 1 so we are all none the wiser really.

Paddy Power going a standout 16/1 on Bellshill for the Supreme - they know.

@impossible123 here's an excellent Timeform article by Michael Williamson, a week before the festival, who argued NC should go for the Supreme: https://www.timeform.com/racing/Articles/Cheltenham_Stat_Attack_Why_Nichols_...

imagined what NC did to Faugheen in the Morgiana was replicated against Douvan in the Supreme 2015?;

He beat Wicklow Brave 2 lengths In the Morgiana. People getting very excited about that piece of form!!

Douvan would beat same horse senseless. And would probably have been a better winner of the CH than Faugheen had they stayed hurdling/gone opposite routes.

Ok was 1/10 and so won as a 1/10 shot should but good to see Footpad is in good health there, currently 30 for triumph hdl it at least bodes well for the form of Applesjade does it not

I'm more interested in wondering why there was no market movement though tbh. Has WM got something else lurking that i don't know about

Mullins has another 4 year old entered up called Ria D'etel who is also owned by Munir/Souede - won its only start in France in September before being bought/sent to Mullins.

The fact Mullins has the above mentioned horse entered in the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown along with his apparent best juveniles, Apple's Jade, Footpad, Let's Dance and Allblak Des Places is interesting ....