Cheltenham Festival
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Wylies I think will be
Bellshill Supreme
Yorkhill Neptune
Up for Review AB
Ricci
Min Supreme
Long Dog Neptune
Giggenstown
Petit Munchoir Supreme
Nambour AB
Bachasson Supreme/Neptune.
Bellshill Supreme
Yorkhill Neptune
Up for Review AB
Ricci
Min Supreme
Long Dog Neptune
Giggenstown
Petit Munchoir Supreme
Nambour AB
Bachasson Supreme/Neptune.
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Replies: 109
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Interesting post CV. Think I'll have a crack at it later and see how many I get right come March. I had Yorkhill down as Wylie's Neptune horse but was thinking the complete opposite regarding Bellshill's target, I had him down as an Albert Bartlett type.
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As stated on another thread I also have Bellshill down as an AB type. And I jumped on @ 20/1 yesterday when I saw Yorkhill romp to his win thinking he looked Neptune bound plus heard Willie say on ATR he was thinking of running Yorkhill over 2 miles at Christmas. Now I know trying to read between the lines of what Willie says is a quick way to the poor house but it all seemed to align in the stars for me. An epiphany !!
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Yes with Yorkhill back over 2m at Christmas I was thinking that would lead him to the Neptune. Up for Review is certainly an AB horse so that would put Bellshill in at 2m. I think he'll possibly swap with Yorkhill but doubt he'll end up over 3 miles unless Up for Review stays home. We know they'll obviously be kept apart at Cheltenham.
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Have a sneaky feeling P2P winner Petit Mouchoir ends up in the AB.
Yorkhill/Min/Bachasson - Supreme Belshill/Long Dog - Neptune Petit Mouchoir - AB Think Up for Review needs soft ground so will avoid Cheltenham. GL |
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interesting Yorkhill is now 8/1 for the Supreme and Min is now 14/1 with Paddies
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Very impressed with PM and Yorkhill.
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Petit Mouchoir has at this stage a question mark over his jumping but looking at that last run it is abundantly clear that the horse has stacks of pace, whether the jumping at a supreme pace gives him a problem and they choose to go Neptune in the hope it helps him I don't know, hope his jumping improves and we see him in the Supreme.
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Very interesting, Yorkhill from 16/1 into 8/1 with Powers for Supreme. Min out to 14/1 indeed.
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A lot of change going on today with PP with respect to Mullins horses. Possible it is just a correction to balance the books ?
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maybe there is a pattern with his absolute top drawer novice hurdlers emerging - look at the distance of their first hurdle race for the stable
Champagne fever 2m Vautour 2m Douvan 2m Faugheen 2m 6 Pont Alexander 2m 4 also look at who owns them his second/third strings dont follow this pattern so perhaps he is less precise with these and they sort of pick up the scraps |
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I remember they did this with Vautour last season for the Arkle. Pushed him out early doors as they knew he wasn't Arkle bound. Ruby must tell them info
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Blimey, the man has got some high class problem placing that lot. While we're on the subject I still have a strong liking for his Potters Point....wont realise potential over hurdles but may go well at a price in the AB or Neptune and more importantly I think will be a major contender for the RSA next year. Just my musings.....
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So CVB finally gets to see the illusive MIN tomorrow. This should be fun - Allez Colombieres or Douvan?
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I hear they think a lot of Nambour but may go chasing .
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Hard not to be impressed with Min. May have beaten very little but did it very nicely and thought he was very quick over his hurdles. One of those horses who seems to get his feet down as soon as he is over them.
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I've been very impressed with Petit Mouchoir to date and kind of didn't want to see an impressive performance from min, but I did like the way he came right away in double quick time at the end.
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Hills and Coral 4-1
 What a joke. |
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Happy to stick with PM to date.
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Me too Duffy re. Petit Mouchoir. Was hoping Min would blow them away so they'd go for Neptune/AB with PM. Still think better then 50/50 chance of that happening giving he is a P2P winner. imo
So much for that big PP drift on Min out to 14/1 recently. Just AP games. |
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Can't see the so well informed PP offering any more 14-1 anytime soon. That was an impressive debut - very slick indeed.
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my view fwiw - dont give paddy the power - they realise many think they know stuff - so the honeymoon period when they built trust maybe over - now they could be abusing trust - my view dont be either persuaded nor dissuaded by their (imo) price manipulations - i wonder how many were ironically put off from backing min ap because pp were biggest - treat their games with the contempt they deserve by ignoring them - back your own view and if you're right take the credit and if you're wrong take the blame - letting a bookmaker influence your bet is counter intuitive to being a successful gambler i reckon
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2m2f on soft ground and he flew away at the end. Could still be a Neptune horse.
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miltons. I dont really see your point.
I dont think PP are 'playing games'. If they are brave enough to put their neck out and go stand out top price on a few, then surely that should be applauded? All they are doing is giving punters value at the end of the day? You are sytaing rhey deserve contempt for giving us bigger prices on some runners than everyone else? If some (like myself) happen to take note of them doing this, and that has paid off a number of times over the last couple of season, then surely we are perfectly entitled to do so? You clearly think its nonsense and thats up to you. |
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ccm - you are doing exactly what i am recommending so we agree - and yes you dont get my point
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Can you explain why they should be treated with contempt for giving you value then?
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they shouldnt - i will try and exlpain this as best i can - i have read on a number of threads comments that indicate people believe pp have accurate info regarding certain horse / yards / race destinations - lets say in order to build trust that at first when they have this good info they go shorter than others on a race that the horse ends up running in and longest the race it doesnt. if this happens a few times then people start to trust they have good info and trust they are responding linearly to that info - in other words they will be shortest for the race it runs in and longest for the other (the same principle applies for other scenarios e.g. lets say their prices indicate a knowledge about pecking order and their prices turn out to be an accurate reflection of this knowledge) i.e. the horse they had biggest turns out to have less ability.
so punters see the disparity with other firms conclude pp were right and other firms wrong and punters trust pp have better info. once the trust is established they then have the power to manipulate peoples thinking - so if people think they know what they are doing they may purposely avoid a horse that is biggest with them because they think they know something - so they were biggest on min for supreme - people may then assume they are biggest for a reason because they have been proven right before - and be very cautious about (or not trust the big price) and some may be put off backing it for this reason all i was trying to say when i said maybe the honeymoon is over (and this was only aimed at people that think their price anomalies are a reflection of an honest reaction to their knoweldge) that if they believe people trust them to be honestly reflecting their knowledge in their prices that maybe they arent honestly reflecting their knowledge all the time now (this is what i mean by abusing trust) and are purposefully short or big on different horses to manipulate how a punter thinks about that horse. I was recommending that people should ignore what they are doing and not let them afffect how they think about a horse. in other words if they like a horse or think a horse will run in a race that pp are suspiciusly big for then back your own opinion and dont be influenced by whatever they are doing with the markets. This would be much easier to explain with a white board and marker pens  bear with me as this takes ages to type out and is a huge investment of my time and i am only trying to help |
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You could say what you mean in one..ish sentence.
If you fancy a horse that PP are biggest on, think to yourself yummy, thanks PP...don't think, oh, it's got no chance/won't run if they are the biggest, I won't back it then. |
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duffy - yes if i only wanted to state the 'what' but i also wanted to explain the 'why' which takes a lotnger and is more helpful imo
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sorry
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thanks duffy
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Milton
I can see that you are going to be a great addition to the forum..in a kind of headmaster sort of way  |
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Its a theory alright
Personally, I'd suggest they are a bit too clever for their own good if their tactic to avoid liabilities on certain horses is to be top price across the board. I just cant see that as a realistic option.We could argue ad finitum though tbh. Plenty think its nonsense, I like to take note, so probably bet just leaving it there. I think its noticeable they are still stand out price on Min though. After a very impressive debut, with connections who have an unbelievablele record in the race, they are still trying to 'get' the horse. Its also worth noting they were shortest price Douvan all last winter. |
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 omg i am not a big fan of headmasters - (apologies to any hm out there) if you are reading and you are one i am sure you are a really good person - i will try and adapt my style a little |
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ccm - i am not saying i am right i am saying its a possibility - and trusting a book maker more than your own instincts/beliefs is not something i could recommend to anyone - thats why i say ignore it altogether rather than take a view that they are either manipulating (if you take a cynical view) or being honest (if you trust them)
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I was thinking more of the endearing Robert Donat playing Mr. Chips.
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MS, I dont base my whole betting strategy on what PP does! AS I have said, I like to take note and consider it as a factor. I personally think ignoring it altogether is folly. Anyway, good luck!
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wasnt thinking for one minute that you do - and even if you do i would wish you good luck - my post was more aimed at anybody that was finding themseleves getting a little stressed with wondering whether to trust them or not and was finding their view on a horse being affected a little more than they would want it to be
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Very impressed with bellshill there myself beating a fair horse in tycoon price easily. He improved with each race last season and is doing the same this season. Expecting plenty of more from this fella and stayed the 2m4 really well.
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