Smad Place Ryanair

Smad Place 0 from 6 at Chelt. In addition when all the non stayers divert from the GC it may not be easy to win the Ryanair either.

Who are the non-stayers in the top ten in the market for the Gold Cup, with the possible exception of Vautour?

Cue Card could end up here.

Isn't Vautour enough, besides you've got the other end to worry about too,horses from the 2 mile department that want to avoid UDS and SS and would have too much toe for SP

Exactly Duffy, I think he'd get done for toe in a Ryanair; even from the likes of Ptit Zig, Valseur Lido, Apache Stronghold etc, and that's if Vautour doesn't turn up.

Stayers do have an excellent record in the Ryanair, and he does have a good festival record, but I'd be disappointed if one of last years' JLT quartet couldn't beat him.

Simonsig

Seems a hard task on paper for SP in whatever race he ends up in.
Looks a different horse this year and the ratings put him in the mix.

If Vautour goes for the Ryanair it will only be because he's disappointed over further and will have lost his air of invincibility.
Likewise, horses wanting to avoid UDS will be just below top class more likely than not.
In terms of the Ryanair being an easier race than the Gold Cup, there's (at present) no comparison. Whether that makes it the right one for SP I don't know but it's a fascinating option.

The only proven stayers in the GC top 10 rated are Coneygree, Djakadam and Smad Place!

Don't buy the 0 from 6 stat Arkle. Watch the RSA run and it's pretty difficult to argue he doesn't like the track.

sageform, if you don;'t think that Don Poli, Don Cossack and Road to Riches are proven stayers, then we'd have to disagree. Who stays best on the day is another matter but these horses are stayers and you'd struggle now not to put Cue Card in that category, too.

I'd agree Cyclops. Cue Card is an out and out 3 miler now. I've backed Road to Riches at 40's for this years Gold Cup but have a gut feeling he might end up in the Ryanair though.

Winners like Cue Card, Albertas, Imperial Commander etc show you need to be a good stayer to win the Ryanair, and to a lesser extent Dynaste.

Sound Investment has it has his long term target, so as long as he wins then that's all I care about :)

Think you have no need to fear that R to R will be diverted, and a tremendous value bet. On better ground than last year, I don't see how he can be far away. Consistent, bombproof and under-rated.

I agree thatRoad to Riches qualifies having finished third in the GC. My criterion was a top 10 rating over a minimum of 26 furlongs and Cue Card or Don Cossack have not yet achieved that although I have little doubt that they could. We have seen several times with horses like Silviniano Conti that winning over 24 or 25 furlongs on a flat track is not always sufficient.

A rather tough criterion, given that, other than the Gold Cup and the Hennessy, there aren't any Grade 1 races one a minimum of 26 furlongs to my knowledge.

Think Smad would have little to fear in the Ryanair - maybe Cue Card, maybe Vautour but there is only one Gold Cup. Hope they all go for the GC and make it one for the ages.

They don't have to be Grade 1. The welsh national and afew other top staying handicaps can produce GC contenders

Staying is always relative to the opposition.  There's a world of difference between 3m in a normal 3m race, and being able to do it at a Championship pace - that's what seperates Gold Cup winners from the very good 3m chasers.

That's why I've got a reservation about RTR (who reminds me of Sir Des Champs); sure they will get 3m well in your average G1, and both have been placed in a Gold Cup, but I'm not sure if they properly stay 3m2f at a championship pace, and to me, it's the pace that they go at makes the difference.

That's why I think the Gold Cup is really interesting, because horses like Don Cossack, Cue Card and Vautour (even if he wins the King George) will be going into the unknown in terms of having to go that extra two furlongs, whilst probably running at a faster pace than they have in other 3m chases they've done.

It's like Usain Bolt could probably win a decent standard 400m race, against good opposition, but he'd never win the Olympic 400m because he'd get too knackered before the end against the best of the best.

Hennessy is a Grade 3 handicap Cyclops,although it does attract the occasional grade 1 horse of course. Not sure Smad Place is one of those though,but he was very impressive.

Chief,I think RTR and SDC are chalk and cheese in their respective abilities. Put it this way I don't think SDC would have got anywhere near Coneygree,and I think RTR would have beaten Bobsworth pretty easily.
I don't think RTR would have any problem with the distance having finished close behind Coneygree on soft ground. Given decent ground he could win a gold cup Imo. Yes,he acts on soft but he is better on better ground.
He's value at the prices,more than can be said for others!!

Yeah, I agree Budd in that I think RTR is a better horse than SDC, but RTR will face much better opposition, and then I suppose that goes back to my point of staying well enough against the opposition on the day - or perhaps I'm confusing staying ability with just normal ability.

Coneygree's presence changes the dynamic of the entire race, and is the most important race in the lineup imo.  Beause he'll get so many out of their comfort zone early on and put pressure on their jumping, if he didn't lineup, it'd be a completely different race.

Sorry, back to Smad Place, I think that was his glory moment; I think he now falls into the category of the too high in the weights for a handicap and not good enough for a Ryanair or a Gold Cup.

At this stage my Gold Cup list would be Coneygree, Djakadam who might still be improving and Smad Place in that order. That assumes they all remain in the form they were last time they were seen. I see Cue Card as a big danger to them all but I am still not quite sure if he would get the trip behind Coneygree att he pace he went last year. The Ryanair is interesting but I can't see Smad Place being quick enough in an average year. Djakadam is surely running over an inadequate trip in the John Durkan tomorrow.

yep absolutely agree that Coneygree in the race is crucial for some horses. His presence,or not,certainly changes the dynamic of the race.
RTR coped with it well in March,and if he gets better ground next March I expect him to go very close.

Yeh,Coneygree and Djakadam are definitely on the short list,but I really cannot see Smad Place a big threat if Coneygree runs.
Don Cossack is a big runner on his form showed in his last few races,he's certainly on the up and is rated highest of the lot I believe.
Cue card I ain't sure about,but if he is impressive again in the KG,he a a big player,same can be said for Vautour.

Cue Card might win the KG by 10 lengths but that still does not tell us anything about his ability to last 27 furlongs.

true,but it does tell us he's a big player when trying to work the race out.

Looking like an increasingly good shout this Cyclops.
Take Vautour out (and I for one would like to see him in the Gold Cup) and you've got the favourite at current prices - although obviously Mullins would aim another very strong dart at this which would no doubt go favourite. Nonetheless, King seems quite positive about this and you'll certainly get a bold run for your money.
Following Village Vic going in again at the weekend, I'm putting up Champagne West for this. I think the race lacks depth and he looked a really good prospect last year before injury ended his spring campaign. There was loads to like about his comeback run behind VV in a competitive handicap, particularly the way that he kept finding when the field closed up on him turning for home (winner flown by then of course). Also, I suspect that the barn felt he needed it as Dickie chose VV over him, although that was probably also down to the fact that they knew VV was a stone better than his mark!
Anyhoo, with VV winning easily again despite an 8lb hike, CW looks like he is certainly capable of running into the low-mid 160s, which could well be enough to win a weak Ryanair. He wont beat Vautour, obviously, if that one lines up, but I wouldn't fear anything else and at 25/1 is cracking EW value.
My big fear is that he only went up 2lb for that effort and Hobbs might think him too well handicapped not to have a crack at one of the 'caps.

^^agree and took the 25/1 CW myself.On the RUK Festive post view Machin said Lydia spoke to sarah hobbs at weekend and said CW goes straight to festival and runs in Ryanair.......However on hislops Chelt update she says might go for a Handicap!!!!.
Read what you can into that.

I imagine that it will be a one concern (amongst many) in the lead up to the Festival, SD. I was encouraged that Dickie seems to want VV aimed at the Plate, I'd imagine he would want to ride both at the Festival, so that would indicate that CW would go Ryanair. I can't think that they would up CW to 3m for the cap on the Tuesday, so I'm fairly confident that he will line up.

By the by, CW is 25/1 NRNB with B365, for those who can get on

Running for place money in Gold Cup is the new target.