Oops,sorry will be Eight soon!!

Paterson - "won't stay the trip" is probably a bit strong, but my take is that Vautour's not a natural 3m 2f horse, and if he wins the Gold Cup it will be down to sheer class more than anything else.

I love the horse but if I owned MOT, I wouldn't duck the Gold Cup due to Vautour.

MOT has also had his problems and, much in the same way as with Coneygree, I guess if you've got a horse with his ability and he's sound, then why not have a go at it. If were 7 in March then I'd definitely prefer the RSA.

I find Punchestown Festival to be the worst meeting for comparing formlines as many horses are simply OTT so late in the season re. NMH v. KV.

"Jonjo O'Neill feels it would be "silly" not to at least give More Of That the option of running in the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup. He came out of the race (on Saturday) fine and is in good form. We've not discussed where we are going next. We will sit down with JP (McManus, owner) and Frank (Berry, racing manager) and sort it out," said O'Neill."

Of course the GC had not been discussed so early in the season cause JP would have told Jonjo to stop talking nonsense. One thing that JP is not known for is  rushing horses. MOT long way to go to earn a tilt at the GC.

No worries mate, we all have different views.  I really like him for this race, but I too wouldn't touch him at 4/1, when you've got MOT, Pont, Killultagh Vic etc breathing down your neck.

His staying power doesn't bother me to be honest, when after all he was only beaten 1.5 lengths in the AB last year.

NMH beat Shaneshill (came to win the race but outstayed) at Navan over 20f in yielding to soft ground: NMH was hampered when delivering its challenge and had a very hard race in the Albert Bartlett (24f) at Cheltenham which could explain the lacklustre performance at Punchestown 6 weeks later where Shaneshill again failed to see out the trip (24f).

With the above in mind I think MOT will have a very good chance of upsetting Shaneshill in the JLT (20f) if swerving the CGC and RSA as MOT is a much more experienced jumper, and also a proven stayer over 20f and 24f unlike Shaneshill who was outstayed by NMH and KV over 20f and 24f respectively.

Pont alexandre looking a bit short now at 10s with the 2nd horse getting soundly beaten today

Nice display from No More Heores. Saw the trip out well and jumped very well. Not sure he's beaten a great deal again though.

bookies moved the price in. Best is 4,s 3 in places!!!

Is it really a crazy price though? Let's face it, from the full ante-post list at this stage, barring injury, No More Heroes is the most certain runner in the race. He's too good for the 4 miler and won't be going for the JLT after today, not that he ever was anyway.

Next in the market is More Of That. I don't believe for a minute he will go the Gold Cup route but they've certainly not dismissed it. He's yet to be seen over 3 miles jumping a fence, I don't doubt the RSA is the plan but I wouldn't entirely rule out the JLT either depending how he goes next time out which I assume will be over 3 miles.

So what else is there in the market?

Pont Alexandre - that's what I call a crazy price. A horse who spent the best part of 1000 days off the track, returned to win well on chase debut but the form has taken a knock as the 2nd has been well beaten since. There's even talk of the 4 miler for him.

Killultagh Vic - this is a horse I like but again, could be JLT bound.

Thistlecrack - this horse is 4th favourite in the ante post market, he hasn't and won't be jumping a fence this season, he's world hurdle bound.

Tea For Two - another horse I like but again, can't rule out JLT, will depend on Aubussons plans.

Next is Arpege D'alene, Aurko, Bitofapuzzle, Sizing John (really?), Yorkhill (really?).

What size of field are we actually expecting here. Not saying 4/1 about No More Heroes is value at this stage, nor have I backed anything for the race but what price do you expect he will be on the day? Unless something major comes out of the woodwork between now and March you're looking at 2/1 joint favs - NMH and MOT ... that's how I see it anyway!

KV was undoubtedly the better hurdler of NMH and KV, but I'd be very surprised if NMH didn't go on to bigger and better things over fences.

Another very good jumping performance from NMH.he looks a real good one and deserved fav for the RSA.
Future Gold Cup horse I have no doubt.
Jumps,travels and stays well.

Should NMH and MOT do battle in the RSA their prices would be between 2/1 and 5/2: should MOT head either to the CGC (Coneygree being an absentee) or JLT (easier race) then NMH will be no bigger than 2/1 in my opinion (1/2 current price), making the current price of 4/1 plus seems a tad generous.

Wouldn't be racing to back NMH after that performance. MOT for me at the current prices. If he remains unbeaten going into the RSA he'll end up fav. imo

Maelduin,
I would be interested in why you would not back him after that performance.
Did you spot something I did not??

I ain't backed him,well a couple of accas I have him in,unfortunately no nice price to win on his own.
Was just interested in what he done wrong the other day to make someone say that.


He has been the most impressive I've seen thus far in this division.

Conditions were perfect for NMH yesterday. He jumped and traveled beautifully through the race. Given all that, and the fact that Monksland was a no-show, i expected him to put the race to bed much sooner and much more decisively then he did against inferior horses. 

Looks like an out and out stayer to me which 9/10 is the perfect profile to win an RSA. But with his preference for lots of ease in the ground, and the possible clash with the classy MOT, i think the value has now gone. I really believe MOT is going to be monster over an extended trip if he stays sound. We already know he loves Cheltenham, stays and clearly isn't short of a bit of toe either.

Could be a classic if both of them plus KV and PA turn up. GL

Delsie777 .... looks like i just plagiarized your post but i honestly hadn't seen it and was just about to post mine a while ago until i got rudely interrupted by my colleague. Anyhow .... snap.

I'm putting NMH in the same boat as Thistlecrack, we're now starting to get to the prices with them where they need to be beating horses of real quality with regards to what they'll face in March, yes he jumped well again as far as that goes but the race in itself proved nothing new, all runners were in it with 2 to jump and for one brief moment the compulsive loser RTW looked half threatening, his debut run has seen nothing come out of that race to enhance the form either....there's nothing wrong with the horse and we see it every year but the price tumble that we always see is not in tandem with the real quality of the form.

No worries mate.
I just saw nowt in that performance to put people off backing him.
Agree he's plenty short enough now though.

Great read this thread. I would like to throw another in the mix. Definitly Red.  Was the best of the Brits in the 2014 Cheltenham bumper and fancy he could be the best of the Brits in this event also. Yet to jump a fence in public and due to run in a 3m+ novice chase on New Years day at Catterick. This race will cut up pretty badly and would expect him to go off big odds on but really interested to see how he jumps as he current trainer reckons his a natural. He was the apple of Steve Gollings eye when he had him, and he has always maintained that we wouldn't see the best of him until he went chasing
Has beaten Tea for Two twice, once in a bumper and once over hurdles. Was beaten 3 lengths by Native River in a 2m 6f hurdle,but the race was run at a crawl which wouldn't have suited. Ran no race in the Albert Bartlett last year as apparently something was amiss
Not saying his good enough to take on the Irish just yet,but feel his flying under the radar at present