Cheltenham Festival
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Surely only danger to faugheen and a e\w cert. Get as much on as they will let you.
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As much as I don't like Triumph winners for this 14/1 has to be taken for my AP book.
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Nice one! Took a bit myself. As you say, has to be the main danger so a cracking ew bet.
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I wonder why they know
 Couldn't resist the price though.... |
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very fair price
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I had my finger on the button to join you but pulled back. Being more Ante Post cautious this year. Reckon Faugheen is a cert so only playing for 1/4 EW money and can't convince myself P&C is any better option @14/1 than Arctic Fire @ 12/1 or Nichols Canyon @16/1. New AP strategy is to stay away from the races where there is a red hot favourite - Douvan, Faugheen, Annie Power, UDS. The EW win opportunity is not worth the non runner risk. Reckon I am getting old ? or wise ?
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Might be abit late to the party but this seems a very fair each way bet, although I now can't seem to find the offer? Any ideas lads?
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The offer closed at 20:28…..
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Ahh right I see, not a problem. Would of been my first AP bet of the season but there we go. Cheers anyways mate
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As much as i admire P&C but juveniles are appalling when stepped up.
Our Connor was maybe going to get near to change my mind. Katchit won the worst race in history, Krebensis was just classy. I still want P&C to be brilliant but i would rather be backing NC ew. |
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He did look special at times last season,and bound to be a fair amount of improving,cut above your normal juveniles we had with those first 3 home imo.
My thinking is they will prove by March that they are big threats to faugheen,if that's their chosen target. |
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I think there'll be a few twists and turns over the course of the season where Nichols Canyon will run at the Festival.
Ruby mentioned several times last year about his stamina, and they already have Faugheen and Arctic Fire for the Champion. I know Annie is at the head of the WH market, but I don't see why they'd go for that when they ducked it last year. Take Annie away and Mullins doesn't really have anything for the WH, and we might get the usual argument of "Ruby will want a top ride in each race". I think some of the 20+ on Nichols Canyon for the WH available now may look very big in March. That'll have the knock on effect of the 14's on P&C to be huge. All guesswork and you'll make it to the poorhouse predicting Mullins' running plans, but it doesn't seem too mad. I think it all revolves around what race they target Annie at. |
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Agree with you, Chief - they have The Champion Hurdle sewn up with The Macheen and AF to pick up the place money and mop up if anything should go wrong. I know the old argument that says Paddy P knows everything about the Mullins yard - and they are best price by a mile - but I think they have this one wrong. I would be surprised if Nichols Canyon doesn't end up in the World Hurdle, partly because, as you rightly say, that's what Ruby wants.
I can see him getting a similar ride to the one Annie got 2 years ago - ridden in behind for a turn of foot turning for home. As long as there isn't a More Of That lurking about it could be good enough. Also, Wylie loves the WH and I think he would prefer a winning chance in that, opposed to chasing Faugheen around the Old Course. I would mention that there is also the small matter of another Rich Ricci horse called Clondaw Court who some of the yard think is a WH horse too. If he turns out to be as good as they think, the plans could all change again and Ruby's head (and opinion) may be turned! |
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Clondaw is a serious horse,whether or not mullins can keep it sound throughout the season is another thing,soft ground Wh and clondaw court would be in the mix
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Is he that ground dependent?
I agree that keeping him sound is a major issue. Is that why he needs soft ground? Interesting if he turns up for the Greatwood next Sunday. |
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Sorry - Clondaw Warrior is a possible for the Greatwood - not Clondaw Court
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Clondaw Warrior wants good ground. Clondaw Court wants soft and has never been beaten. I understood that they hoped that CC would go chasing but I would imagine they would try hurdling first and if he looked good they might go for the WH.
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Last year's juveniles, and therefore Peace And Co, looked well above average. I'm hoping Top Notch will uphold the Triumph Hurdle form first time out today. I fully expect him to put favourite Irving in his place.
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Does yesterdays result mean on form lines through Top Notch that Peace And Co is about as good as Irving ? ………..and thus a country mile off Faugheen and Nichols Canyon ?
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no.
Top notch having his first race of the season against a race first Irving,so no idea who fit he was. Also juveniles improve from 4 at different rates. Best wait till we have seen PAC out imo. |
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First time out the key factor you think ? Would make sense.
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A couple of furlongs from home in The Triumph Geraghty was holding Peace And Co together with a handful. In the last furlong the horse was treading water with Top Notch coming back at him. Which suggests to me that Top Notch is more of a strong staying 2 miler and possibly 2 and a half miler with Peace And Co being a speed horse. I doubt a flat 2 miles showed Top Notch at his best. I also suspect that Peace And Co will be better on decent ground and with the shorter distance and tighter old course of the champion. He's also only seen a racecourse four times.
Which could mean a lot or very little. My best guess is that he needs to find around 12 lbs to push Faugheen which isn't inconceivable. It's always a tough ask as we all know going from four to five and despite the other day I still think Faugheen an above average Champion. I also think irrespective of the Triumph that Peace was a well above average four year old. Part of what makes this sport so compelling in my view. |
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yeh fair points re Top Notch and being more of a stayer than PAC.
I have backedTN at big odds for the CH but unless it's pretty soft I don't think now that he will run in the race. PAC will certainly be campaigned for the CH,and would agree it all depends how much improvement he can make from 4-5. |
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Is he likely to run next week in the fighting fifth has anyone heard any comments?
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Decs for the Fighting Fifth out tomorrow.
I doubt Irving would beat Top Notch if they meet again this season. Henderson has said he thinks he's more of a 2 1/2 miler. Might be way off but could they send him over fences now with the weight allowance. 4year olds get a decent allowance. Same owner has sent Bristol De Mai over fences and Top Notch is better. I could be way off though. |
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Slightly off topic, but the owner has Vyta du Roc too; I think he'll make a great 2.5-3m chaser.
I was getting worried about the form of the Triumph. Hargam beaten twice, Top Notch beaten, Devilment well held in the Greatwood, but then I didn't realise Old Guard finished tailed off in the Triumph and was an impressive winner in the Greatwood. |
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Think Hargam is going for Fighting Fifth, My Tent or Yours in Christmas Hurdle. Peace & Co for the Bula. Then a prep each in new year before Champion Hurdle.
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Personally I think the amount of pace that will be on in the Champion with Nichols Canyon and Faugheen will be absolutely right up Peace and Co's street.
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Don't think Peace and Co was treading water at all in the triumph, he jumped the last behind top notch but halfway up the run powerfully got past top notch, he then I believe started to pull himself up a bit.
If he was treading water, you see a more elongated display of it, you see it developing as the tank empties...he flew past top notch and then half stopped all of a sudden, I reckon he needs delivering late and I reckon he is a strong strong stayer over 2 miles. |
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Agree think he maybe the one to shake up the Mullins entourage.
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Personally I like to see MTOY's reappear and not pull anymore
 , but failing that Peace and Colooks the likeliest winner to me. |
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Mtoy not showing this Saturday,going International next month with Peace and Co.
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Wicklow Brave being supplemented for the Fighting Fifth is a great addition as it will give us an idea of where the English ones are in relation to Nichols Canyon and Faugheen
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I don't understand why not target this race with P&C or MTOY ? It makes no sense, its a G1 and it gives you plenty of time to recover for the Christmas Hurdle..
As for relative form, that wasn't the true Faugheen we saw on his first start, the gallop he did destroying NC few days earlier maybe he did too much, plus Ruby got the tactics all wrong against 2 flat horses with finishing speed. If WB wins by 5 lengths or gets beat 5 lengths, it'll mean nothing in relation with Faugheen. I do expect Purple Bay, if he's the same horse, to take this race on trot based on his last year form and 16/1 mmm yummy!! |
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duffy
Interesting how people see things differently. There's no doubt he stays 2 miles perfectly well. My belief is that he'll be better over the champion distance on the champion course. I've just watched the race again and I see no evidence of this powerful surge to get past Top Notch. Going in to the last Geraghty has asked the horse for nothing with the jockey getting after Top Notch. He does find for being asked but nothing like what he appeared to be travelling with. Same as in January. Which suggests one of two things. Possibly he pulls himself up when he hits the front or 2 miles 1 furlong on soft ground at Cheltenham is as far as he wants to go. Given he's won a couple of times where he's been in front from early in the race I don't think it's the former. I think his greatest attributes are his speed and jumping which I think will be seen to a better effect over the shorter distance, tighter track of the champion and more hurdles in the last few furlongs. |
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Timtin, Wicklow Brave coming over will give us an idea of potentially were Hargam and Top Notch are against the Irish, thats how form works! You have to assume Faugheen ran his race, no matter what he did on the gallops, as I didn't see any excuses
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Wouldn't be any fun if we all see things the same way
, I do think there is an issue with him stopping in fron a bit, I stand by my comment that he got to TN strongly and went passed, watch as he goes passed him I think there is quite a marked deceleration, typical of a horse that thinks he's done enough....he was tanking coming to the last, no way IMO he was tired at the line. |
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No @wellcheif, we would all be millionaires if the form would work out that way, horses don't put up the same performance at every outing. It depends on how the race is run, horse position, the pace, ground, type of course, etc.
It doesn't matter what they did on the gallops, Except when the gallop happened just few days earlier and the horse does TOO much. They travelled to Curragh and Faugheen might have been keen to race, did too much and 'left the race behind' like Mullins said. The form of Morgiana shouldn't be taken at face value. For me there are only 2 G1 horses in the race, Purple Bay who is the pick on last year form and Irving on this years form. If WB wins it doesn't say anything about Faugheen because Irving will race too soon after Haydock and PB might have lost his form from last year. Again all this is not that important as to why are P&C and MTOY missing from this G1? Not ready yet or ? Hargam surely not good enough.. |
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Chief I reckon youre in a big minority if you believe Faugheen ran his race against NC. If anyone in WM's yard believed NC had a chance of beating Faugheen do you think Paul Townend would have gone to ride in Cork that day. I'll be amazed if NC finishes ahead of Faugheen again this season.
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All I'm saying is that from what I saw with my own eyes is that Faugheen had no excuses, and was simply beaten by a better horse on the day.
Would I expect Faugheen to beat Nichols Canyon when they next meet? Probbly, yes. But in that race, Nichols Canyon was simply better, and Faugheen couldn't get to him. Both were having their first run on the year, so both are entitled to improve from it. I would rate Nichols Canyon as potenitally better than Arctic Fire, and Faugheen beat him 1.5 lengths, so when NC and Faugheen meet next, I'm not expecting Faugheen to blow him away by 10 lengths. I wouldn't back either for CH at current prices. I couldn't back NC at 4's when we don't know if that was a one off, and I couldn't back Faugheen at 2's until I saw him back to his old self. I can only judge them on what I see on the track, not on the gallops. I'm not bothered if Faugheen beats him 100 times out of 100 on the gallops to be honest. For all we know Faugheen might have had a good run on the gallops before every run; it's only now that he's got beat, people are mentioning it. |