Neptune Novice hurdle 2016

With Yanworth's exhilarating display over the weekend, and reputation of 2nd 'fav' Bellshill, could Buveur D'air be rerouted here despite its latest easy win? The horse is absolutely friendless in the Supreme market. Or could it be saved for Aintree?

Shame if they are worried about going quick over 2 miles. wouldn't be a worry IMO, his performance over the weekend only goes to highlight his quality and that yes, Neptune won't be a problem, it doesn't suggest that he couldn't handle the 2 mile pace, just a quality horse all round.

Matt Chapman says stick it in the Champion Hurdle.

Probably a bit strong, but it seems that the consensus is CH next year, so by definition pace isn't a question, so why not run in the speed test this year.

I also get that the Neptune gives CH horses as well as Supreme does, but if he's got the pace, I think they wanted to avoid Min, but after the week-end I they still as scared?

Yanworth's performance the other day is a long way, the best novice hurdle performance this year, over any distance.

However, I think we've only scratched the surface of Bellshill's ability, so I'm looking forward to seeing him in a proper race.  Maybe that'll be the Deloitte against the likes of Tombstone, or will he be saved for Cheltenham?

Those on big Yanworth tickets, well done.  I thought about taking the any race bet for a while but never.  However, those lumping on at around 2's now, I would want to see what Bellshill is capable of yet before taking that sort of price. 

I think he is a good ew price at 4's because I couldn't see him outside of the top 3 personally.

A lot of those in the betting look like they won't turn up here - Tombstone, Barters Hill, Shantou Village, Yorkhill, Min; so I think the 4's on Bellshill is a decent bet.

I think the weekend proved BJG is spot on about the horse. He has speed but stays really well. The Neptune is the perfect race for the horse. The only reason he would go for the CH is that there isn't a prestigious option over two and a half miles, whereas the Supreme and the Neptune are comparable.

A lot of stayer have won the Supreme in recent years,and a lot of Neptune winners have gone on to run well in the CHurdle.
So the speed test is not always the supreme.
As far as Yanworth is concerned,he's proved capable of running huge races in both Imo,he can only run in one,so why not the one his jockey has said all along is best suited to him,and the one at the distance he has just produced his best display at.
From what I have seen this season,I think he would win either race.

Spot on bud. I think BJG knows better than any of us. Especially those with Supreme vouchers

not so good on those of us with Yanworth tickets for the Supreme @chief but I do agree about Bellshill and I also have him flagged as something special. I have wondered who should Yanworth take on, Altior or Bellshill. I think if the latter puts a good performance in the Deloitte then Yanworth's camp should reconsider but thats purely pocket talking as from a spectacle pov I thought the Supreme will be one for the ages and now I think the Neptune will be just the same, Long Dog Yanworth Bellshill A Toi Phil.

Alan king already said yesterday evening he goes neptune so there's no point what so ever discussing yanworth for the supreme. Unlucky anyone who backed for just the supreme but In all of alan king stable tours he said was likely to be stepped up in trip later in the season

I've been a big fan of Yanworth for the Supreme ever since the bumper, hadn't backed him as it's hard for me to shell out early doors.

Right now at 40+ on here I'm going to have a speculative few quid on him for the Supreme and realize I'm up against it but my thinking is, they wanted to see if he'd stay because they were worried about Min, I'm banking on and needing a similar performance from Bellshill when he runs next.

Hopefully they'll then think, well if Min wasn't running we'd be in the Supreme regardless and probably wouldn't have even carried out the experiment at the weekend, we've now got an equally scary looking Bellshill so why not revert back to the first route and use that speed knowing we haven't got to worry about the stamina at the end.

Reaching I know now, but like that sort of speculative bet, plus we're talking about Mcmanus, so it's a possible.

Duffy. I honestly think you are over thinking this. BJG has always said the horse will be better over two and a half miles. They've stepped him up, and he produced the best piece of form of his career. It's the most straight forward decision for everyone!

Jan 26, 2016 -- 9:39PM, scooby91 wrote:

Really hope he goes bartlett.Neptune I gotBellshill 14/1 8s any raceYanworth 25/1 12s any raceA toi phil 380.0Tombstone 110.0 but also 168.0 supremePetit mouchoir 55.0Townshend 280.0 runs sat but unlikelyShantou 10s any raceBarters hill 19s any raceBachasson 82.0Disko 44.0 looks gone.American tom 50s.Vigil 140.0That's every horse iv honestly backed,

Couldn't have gone much better this weekend and very happy that shantou confirmed to be going bartlett along with bartershill as long as the grounds as expected.

I'd be shocked if Yanworth ran in the Supreme, after Saturdays performance it wouldn't make any sense? Can't think of too many horses running over 2.5m returning to the Supreme? I think they where looking to try and avoid Min and try the trip, so surely all systems go the Neptune.

Scooby great book for the race, if you haven't got the winner backed then surely we'd all have to give up?

'scooby'

Let's hope the Festival is not abandoned due to adverse weather conditions then.

Won a few quid on Thistlecrack at the weekend and with my stake on shantou and barters hill going over to the bartlett I'm deliberating covering buveur dair for the neptune, another mention from connections or henderson or soon as I see an entry for 2m4 I'll be straight on it.

Backed Buveir Dair right at the start of the season any race at 20s so as long as he runs at the fez i'll be quite happy but the fact that he is 30 and being laid at 32 in the neptune and pretty friendless at the moment in the supreme, i am getting quite worried. Though to be fair, it could be market repair for want of a better word, Altior has also drifted a little and Min went to 3 on Saturday.

STS who knows with Henderson?I have backed Buveir as well in any race market and w-out Min.
Fingers crossed after last run he stated wanted another run before festival.

I think Yanworth will be no shorter on the day than he is now. 2/1 is a crazy price 7 weeks out - he has to get there too. That aside, what's not to like? Assuming he arrives fit and well, he is the one everything else has to beat. He has had a perfect prep for the Festival and I have similar feelings about this horse going into the race that I had about Barton and Simonsig.

Yanworth has been given a rating of 158, higher than when Faugheen (152) won in 2014.

Duffy, write your supreme ticket off mate and take it on the chin. It happens to all of us. Amazed how anyone could have picked supreme over neptune watching last year's bumper.

King said it was stepping up long before he'd probably even heard of Min.

benk - totally agree re last years bumper - however a few mitigating factors - on more than one occasion he said the horse was showing a lot more speed than last year and also this was what he said after the run 18th Dec 'I dont see any reason to go farther with him., so unless the boys say different we'll be looking at the supreme'. I suspect many may have pressed the supreme button at that point. There may have been posters that said straight after dec race - take no notice of the trainer he will definitely run in the neptune - if so well played.  I backed him any race predominantly so am relatively unscathed however have a lot of sympathy for those that were swayed towards supreme.

benkneale03 Joined: 28 Jan 12
Replies: 82 02 Feb 16 15:08   


It happens to all of us. Amazed how anyone could have picked supreme over neptune watching last year's bumper.
                                                                           I'll explain it to you, the horse travelled into the race hard on the steel at a busy part of the race when the pace was quickening, then when the final push came just before the home straight IMO McCoy was caught napping,I actually think he thought that the horse was travelling so easily he didn't need to do much, when (although the horse had travelled there well) he needed to start to get after the horse in the race to the line.

It cost the horse a few lengths and lost momentum, the second McCoy got after him he picked up and ran right to the line, he did not perform as a horse who lacked pace because he wouldn't have travelled into the race like he did and he wouldn't have been able to pick up as well as he did after losing momentum.

After Saturday, along with his position in the Neptune market he is now being talked about as a viable CH contender for next year so the pace issue is not a question is it?

Yes he'll run in the Neptune but let's not pretend he hasn't got the pace for the Supreme this year but will have for the CH next year...he stays the Neptune but he has got bundles of toe IMO.

Watch the Bumper again, I can't believe that anyone thinks he was genuinely outpaced.

I'm with you Duffy. After his last start before this weekend I watched the bumper back about 6 times. He had a horrendous journey towards the end and wasn't running as a stayer, like Modus did, he just didn't get the gaps when they were needed.

If you actually take modus as an example, he ended up getting a dream passage from the back up the inside rail as they came round the home turn.

No doubt he has speed for 2M but they want him to be slicker over hurdles first. Now has proven stamina, makes sense to go Neptune at this stage.

Tory

Absolutely, Modus, Moon Racer and Wait For Me all had the dream inside run with nothing in their way and were full of momentum swinging in, Yanworth had carted McCoy into the race but was wider out and at the crucial point had both Theo's charm and Au Quart De Tour falling back into his lap.

McCoy half took a pull looking for room and it cost him lengths and momentum struggling to get him repositioned before it was too late, Modus however did race like your stereotypical stayer as where you had Yanworth tank into the race Modus had to come from further back with the jockey having to get at him to do so and was very strong at the end.

Paddies cut Bellshill and pushed out Yorkhill for the Deloitte on Sunday, so it could be Tombstone vs Bellshill.

This could be one hell of a race and have big implications in the Supreme and Neptune.  This race has a recent history of putting up big performances in both the Supreme and Neptune (Windsor Park, Nichols Canyon, Vautour, Champagne Fever, Oscars Well...)

Like both the giggins horses.

WILLIE MULLINS may train four of the first five in the betting for the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle, but stable jockey Ruby Walsh believes impressive Trials Day winner Yanworth will prove difficult to beat at the Cheltenham Festival.

Walsh, the top jockey in Festival history, will ride a host of leading fancies this year but he is not confident that he will be winning the opening race on day two having followed Yanworth home aboard Shantou Village on Saturday.

"I thought Yanworth was very good in the Neptune Trial. He travelled with unbelievable ease and jumped relatively well. The way he quickened from the last was eye-catching. He will be difficult to beat in the Neptune," said Walsh.

Deloitte for Bellshill

Walsh has a number of options in the Neptune but looks likely to ride second favourite Bellshill, who is set to put his unbeaten record over hurdles on the line in Saturday's Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown.

"Bellshill worked well yesterday and goes for the Deloitte at Leopardstown," Walsh said in his Racing UK blog.

Emphasising just how impressive Yanworth had been, he added: "Bellshill will have to be in good form this weekend and even more so in a few weeks' time to beat Yanworth."

Bellshill is a top price of 5-2 with Betway for Saturday's Grade 1, but is as short as 11-8 with Paddy Power, while he is a best-priced 4-1 second-favourite for the Neptune with Betway and Betfred.

A pleasing report for Yanworth backers, eh CCM?

Very Des! BJG cant hear of him being beaten.

I have to say he's starting to look like the banker of the week... Ordinarily I wouldn't be looking at 2/1 and thinking its great value at this stage, but when you look at the prices of Min, Douvan, Faugheen, Thistlecrack, Limini etc all shorter, it doesn't look so bad.

Agreed. Normally I might be tempted to take my stake back at this point, but I'm actually thinking of going in again.
Can't believe he's a bigger price than Min!

I got a few quid more on at 3-1 and 11-4 post race so feeling happy enough with that!

Confirmed today that Yanworth's only festival entry is for the Neptune

Very confident me thinks !!!

Scooby

That novice hurdle that ATP won, I was looking last night, in the last 10 years it has thrown up 2 AB winners, 2 Neptune winners and numerous placed horses from both races, last year it provided the winner of 3 festival races and a 3rd from last year, I backed KV on the back of his run in it last year, not after-timing, I put a thread up before the MP was run

Even more importantly I think is that in 4 of the last 6 years Mullins has run a horse in it that went on to be his main runner in either of the 2 longer novice races and if Sure Reef hadn't had a set back he may have been another. It is a top class trial.

Conversely despite what we may think, the Deloitte, apart from last year where it provided the 1st and 3rd in the Neptune, in the last 10 years it has only managed 2 place horses in the Neptune.

Thanks for that Duffy,  the race certainly has a great cheltenham record.
A toi phil has a racing post rating of 151. Not sure when he will get an official mark.
He'd have a decent chance where ever he goes, assuming neptune, yanworth will be very hard to beat. He's certainly in the mix though and I wouldnt be at all suprised if he improved again,

With a bit of luck yanworth scares Willy and Giggi off a la thistlecrack has with VVM! ATP rating will be touch and go for getting in MP and if he's a proper neptune horse he'd have 10lbs+ in hand off his mark to go vlose in MP. They'd have to be tempted, especially with Willie saying he's only looked like a racehorse last time out. Could still be very raw and one for the future to not be bottomed in a grade 1. The second from his last win has been given 132. Does that mean ATP won't be assessed until much nearer the time?

Isn't the MP a 0-140? He'll get more than that Shirley?

Top weight le mercury raced off of 145 in it last year, conversely KV was off of 135!!

I personally think that ATP will be in the upper 140's, I don't think they'll run him in it, reckon AB has equal a chance as Neptune though, mullins hasn't won it and giggins were mob handed in the race last year.

Don't you think that you're perhaps getting a bit carried away with A Toi Phil? I think you'll find that he's way down the Closutton pecking order.

It's easy for us to overlook him because he's not been one of the buzz horses all year, but as there are several it is easy for us to look past some, this time last year few had KV marked down as a festival contender and you'd have said the exact same thing about getting carried away with him. Mullins running him in that race and his performance as well as comments from Mullins stating he'll be in one of the novice races suggests to me he isn't too far down the pecking order, particularly for the AB from within the yard.

ATP surely Neptune bound given the money after lto?

Maybe Yanworth has changed things a bit, Bellshill, Yorkhill Long Dog, PM are all in the Neptune mix too, how many darts do they want to throw at Yanworth and potentially waste? They look way weaker in the AB and ATP looks as if 3 miles will be no problem to him.

Look at the difference from his last two runs going up in trip, he was very strong at the end last time.

A lot will depend on what Bellshill does on Saturday if he runs? As the earlier poster mentioned I was thinking ATP as a possible for the Martin Pipe but like others have said he'll probably be too high, in fact you could see Phil Smith giving him 146 as if to say feck off!

Agreed and PM is on 145 too, having said that it doesn't mean they're still not well in compared to their relevant ability.

The Neptune is fascinating now with for once the boot being on the other foot with Mullins "potentially" playing catch up to a very impressive market leader, let's see how they play it out, as john says, Bellshill at the weekend will be very interesting, I think Tombstone will give him plenty to think about myself.

Yanworth was very impressive on Saturday but was Shantou Village at his best? Plus till the festival we won't truly have a handle on the form of the Irish novices vs the British novices at the moment its just opinions and to the eye Yanworth sets the standard.

The Bellshill, Tombstone clash is going to be pivotal, I'm firmly in the Bellshill camp and hope he enhances his claims but respect Tombstone, especially at the intermittent trip.

racing post strongly suggesting shantou village neptune bound

No quotes though. Trainer suggested that if looks like being dry to the Friday SV would go Bartlett

Can anyone see Shantou Village reversing the form?

Neil mulholland said if rain is due after wednesday he will go neptune. If it's not soft he'll go bartlett.
If it's soft all week he will keep him for aintree.

Correct roobuck

either very irresponsible reporting by rp or trainer has had a rethink - and correct no quotes

well no quotes saying going to neptune - there are quotes about not handling the ground - and obviously wanting better ground in march

I live just down the road from Neil mulholland yard, not sure he'd appreciate me popping in to ask though.

fortune favours the brave - nothing ventured an all that - he might think you're showing enterprise - take some carrots

If you are popping down scooby, can you ask him about his runner in the 3.50 at Chepstow tomorrow as well please

A bit of pocket talking I accept, but given OK ground, SV's best chance is AB. No chance of reversing form with Yanworth imo

Difficult to see how Shantou Village can reverse form with Yanworth in the Neptune on any ground. He was the horse backed at the off on Saturday and he pretty much confirmed his form with Champers On Ice, so whilst he will improve in March, the yard obviously expected him to run his race. He stayed on pretty well in atrocious ground and I suspect that is the best piece of form we have seen with the Bartlett in mind. Whilst the ground might be soft in March, it is hard to imagine it being as slow as that.

not what the trainer has said - he said they were pretty sure he wouldnt handle the ground but wanted to see - and now they know - its not always yard money

I live just down the road from his ma and da Will i pop in and ask them

Warren great Rex gave MA DU FOU some mention for the neptune earlier seemed to quite fancy him and he's going for the sidney banks or the listed race at Exeter next.
Must admit I'd never heard of the horse but on closer inspection if his form his last 2 races look pretty good. Put a few quid on at 360.0

Yanworth just sighted smoking a cigar out of his stable window.

Bellshill surely won't be winning anything at Cheltenham, in fact on that running may not turn up?

yorkhill neptune?

You would think so, as Bellshill is surely out of calculations.

Unless something comes up like an injury, I'd still expect Bellshill to line up in the Neptune. 

That surely can't be his running?  Can't blame the ground as he's won three on heavy, but could just be that when up against a much better class of opposition, he doesn't go on it as well.

Nearly came down at the first and went out like a light.  I'd be inclined to put a line through it, but I wouldn't be queueing up to back him against Yanworth.

Not so sure Chief, reckon we won't see Bellshill at Cheltenham.

That definitely wasn't Bellshill's running and I'd imagine they will find something wrong with him when he's checked over. Severity of the problem will determine whether or not he'll go to Cheltenham. Not saying by any stretch that he'll beat Yanworth, just that today he was miles below par.

Can't see OOseven giving Yanworth much to worry about. I know Henderson doesn't like the potato race, but surely he'd have a better chance there?

wouldn't get past barters hill or Shantou Village in the AB either. Can see it running into a place in the Neptune

I won't post my bets but I will discuss the racing.
Yorkhill now looks like going the neptune by the exchanges and pp.
They also shortened long dog into 10/1 and a toi phil into 8/1.
In the supreme they have shortened buveur dair into 7/1 with paddy further enhancing the prospect of yorkhill not lining up here.
1 horse of note I the supreme market which is a huge longshot at 110.0 is babbling stream who won nicely yesterday and his target would be the supreme according to willie, bit he is also for sale publicly, and if he was going to be a supreme winner I'm sure ricci would of snapped him up.
Bleu et rouge a mcmanus horse also looks to be avoiding yanworth in the neptune where pp go a standout 16/1 and would look to be the mount of barry geraghty in the supreme. Alot may depend on how modus runs in the betfair hurdle,
Bellshill hasn't been shortened for any other race, although I would keep an eye on any move for the bartlett or supreme as he's surely better than Saturdays run.
Although something may  come to light in the next few days ruling him out all together.

I'll also add that nicky has confirmed buveur dair do be going supreme and not for the neptune,hes set to run again in the next week to 10 days

I can't believe that was Bellshills true running Saturday, he went out like a light even though RW allowed him to coast home. No news yet on him? something surely amiss?

STJ - of course it wasn't Bellshill true running. Same could be said for Wylies other horses and a few other notable WPM runners last couple of weeks. Something amiss in Willieland? Looks like a case of the chills. imo.

The run of Bellshill was disappointing, however, his form did not amount to much either eg beating non-entities at very prohibitive prices.

Good to hear Buveur D'air is heading to the Supreme though.

Agree impossible but even on his bumper form he's a better horse than Saturdays showing.

Ma Du Fou running in the 3:05 Huntingdon, just had a look at his form and i can't believe he's not favorite for this contest imo so have had a score on at 11/4. Took Ma Du Fou326.82 £3.30  £1,075.20 but laid £5 off at 130 but hopefully he still bolts up today for a half decent trade off.

Good performance in a decent little race.

Feb 5, 2016 -- 3:45PM, scooby91 wrote:

Warren great Rex gave MA DU FOU some mention for the neptune earlier seemed to quite fancy him and he's going for the sidney banks or the listed race at Exeter next.Must admit I'd never heard of the horse but on closer inspection if his form his last 2 races look pretty good. Put a few quid on at 360.0

Might not

"Bellshill has since scoped dirty" - Paudie Hassett (Head of Irish Racing)

^^ Latest Spoilsports Podcast

Nice form boosts for YORKHILL 00 SEVEN and MA DOU FOU with agrapart winning the betfair hurdle very nicely.

Yes and another boost for Yanworth with Charbel hacking up on sunday

Is Yorkhill definitely Neptune bound now? I assumed with Bellshill flopping he would be, but I haven't heard anything.

If it wasn't for Min I would have thought Yorkhill would be clear favourite for the Supreme (on actual form he should be).
They made the mistake of running Nichols Canyon in the Neptune last year because they had Douvan in the Supreme  - hope lightning doesn't strike twice.

^ same scenario with the two owners as well - is it just coincidence that the horse with the best hype is owned by the voluble, extrovert Ricci and the horse with the best form is owned by the more understated Wylie?

I'm not massively against Yanworth but there've been many horses to run a great race in which everything suited them and get a big rating & hype for then on the big day with totally different conditions to flop. He ran a good race on good ground last in the bumper but the odds-on price is closely linked with his lto run on heavy ground and even though everything checks out in rating terms it'll be a different game altogether against better opponents, different ground and who knows what tactics from every jockey I don't think it'll see him to the same effect as it did in the trial.

Much rather prefer the forgotten one Long Dog who has done just enough to win his last 2 G1s on heavy/soft goings. With a nice break after a long summer campaign and more suited to the faster ground which we'll hopefully have in March then at 14/1 he's the value bet in this.

Yanworth is a worthy favourite of course but put it this way, I'd sooner have the 7/4 Min in his race than the 11/10 about Yanworth in his.

Noooooooo to the last two comments i'm on Yanworth at 12/1 Neptune and 9s any race, am on Long Dog at 12s any race and 16s neptune as well like have to admit but i aint backed Min nor am i likely to unless someone pushes him out on the Tues morning to a non resistible price lol of which is a good chance of happening given it's the first race of a long week!

I'd much sooner have the 12/1 Yanworth his race than the 7/4 about Min in his.

My top five most likely winning odds-on/fav at Cheltenham eg:-

1) Yanworth
2) Thistlecrack
3) Douvan
4) Min
5) Uds

(1) and (2) 1st because they are hurdle races otherwise Douvan would head the list. I have omitted VVM in the Mares race as its participation is still not definitive.

With the CH candidates falling like flies might JP think about supplementing Yaworth. Would have to have as good a chance in it as in the Neptune imo

Bosseur franked the form of a toi phil today winning the big race at auteuil the graded  prix jugne hurdle Over 2m2f

I think A Toi Phil is one of the darkest horses at the whole festival.

Has run in races WPM likes to run good onesin, has won well, his form looks good. And barely gets a mention anywhere!

One of the ew bets of the week for me as can't have him out of the frame and I think Yanworth is going to need to be very good to beat him

whats going on  with a toi phil? mullins not mentioned him for the Neptune in his column in the rp today and weak on here ! anyone know anything ?

I was wondering the same, foyles. I know there was talk of a disappointing bit of work but have heard nothing concrete since.

don't look promising

Giggy's other one - Bello Conti has been smashed up, so maybe that's their preferred one? Also trained by Mullins

According to what i was told a week ago, Bello conti is/was very likely to go bartlett with Balko des flos joining a toi phil in the neptune..
But I backed bello conti for both nrnb just incase

Atp Was said last night to be be working very well leading up to the neptune by Patrick mullins last night.