Min

People are making a mistake if they believe WMs success is solely down to the RR owned horses. Ignoring the RR winners he has still trained more festival winners than any other trainer since 2009. Everything comes to an end eventually but WM is more than likely to dominate for quite some time.

Well done Milters - no problem.

Forgive me if i am wrong, but i am sure i was reading posts from Ekbalco last season about the last fez where he talked about  being in this priveledged position of being able to talk to connections and watch horses work of a totally different yard altogether

Ekbalco is seeing these horses work in his dreams. That's pretty obvious

I really cannot start backing horses cos an owner says he's the next Pegasus,and I cannot do the same cos someone I don't know says he watches the horses working.
If Min wins so be it,but it won't change my attitude.
If it carried on this way for a few more years,I would still look elsewhere,and should I not see any other horse I think worth backing I will simply leave the race alone,and look at the other 20 odd races.
Whatever your ways,I wish you all luck. We all need it however we decide on how to back a horse.

home work is one thing.

Given the public info available about the British contingent eg Altior, Yanworth, plus one or two others Min does look 'good' winning without breaking sweat in its only race so far; if Min was to win the Moscow Flyer tomorrow with his head in his chest the price of Min will be nearer even money given the record of trainer/owner in the Supreme.

Ruby couldn't keep the smile off his face in that interview post race - trying to keep a straight face but couldn't hide his delight after that round of hurdling.

That was electric, and one can crab the opposition til the cows come home but the way the race panned out, but I thought that was really impressive. Jumped as slick as any novice you'll see, completely took off with Ruby after the first few furlongs, and rounding the home turn as the Gigginstown horses closed up I feared the worst, but he powered clear again under minimal encouragement from Ruby.

This is a fair beast, marrying up stable vibes with track performances, Min is a rightful Supreme fav imo. The worry, or perhaps the straw that opponents can cling to, is that he'll need to keep a lid on that mid-race enthusiasm; a similar thing happened on debut. Realistically though, the typical pace of a Supreme should ensure that Min settles better and I can't wait for him to come there swinging turning in.

yep,good round of jumping,horse could literally be anything.
Won't find out how good he is till March though of course.
Same can be said of a few to be honest.

That 25/1 input up on here in September  not looking to shabby now.  Anyone that took the 7s after his win on debut, fair play to you also. Can't wait to see yorkhill out again next backed him at 32.0 for supreme too and I'm expecting him to be the main danger, hoping he will quicken up nicely on the better ground. Because he travelled supremely well in the tolworth

That 25/1 input up on here in September  not looking to shabby now.  Anyone that took the 7s after his win on debut, fair play to you also. Can't wait to see yorkhill out again next backed him at 32.0 for supreme too and I'm expecting him to be the main danger, hoping he will quicken up nicely on the better ground. Because he travelled supremely well in the tolworth

Scooby, give your mouse click button a wipe imo

It's my phone, and it only does it on this forum, not sure why.
Anyway.
Shocking from the books to shorten min up so much, yet not push anything out.
Something were going to have to get used to in every race going forward

That makes it a no bet race for me now.

No way could I back him at 7/4, but in the back of my mind, he could be a superstar and you're chucking money away from him trying to find something else.

Because these novices very rarely run against each other, you can only really go off visuals, and he did look good today.  What he beat, I'm not so sure, but I can't see anything in England that screams out to me, so you're relying on a Wylie runner, probably with Townend on as main opposition.

Evens with Hills

William Hill is 1/1 whereas Racebets is 2/1; these bookmakers are supposed to be advised by 'experts' in the field yet the 100% discrepancy.

Race bets just trying to get new customers as were bet way last night going 33/1 Min and then after its run sending an email saying bets are void as it was an administration error

Hills and Racebets, being different companies, have totally different liabilities in their books so completely understandable if they're such different prices imo.

Chief,
Not been impressed with Yanworth or Altior mate?

Been impressed with Yanworth mate, but the worry is the Neptune.  He might be a play on the day if he lines up.

Not particularly sold on Altior to be honest.  I actually flagged him up on here at 25's after he won at Chepstow in October, but I think he is purely at the place in the market because of lack off depth, rather than him blowing the opposition away.  I think he was a bit fortunate that Maputo got injured at Cheltenham when he beat him, and he was off the bridle a bit too easily for me at Kempton.

Forgetting the merits of what he beat, visually, that looked like a special horse.

Yanworth available at 9 any race,worth a go if you like him and worried about which race I reckon.

Re Altior, I quiet like horses that respond in the way he did,he's gonna be a powerful finisher up that hill I think.

I would agree Duffy,visually he did look special.

Clutching at straws springs to mind.

Why's that?

the other jocks in the supreme wont give him a lead, hope to get him free then succomb up the hill

only way they can get it beat

prob be a first for the cheltenham festival

looks a total monster to me, how do they get them beat in france

Having written down a couple to back in next couple days for the supreme, it's great when looking through ones online accounts to find that you have already backed them in the any race market of billys at bigger and double current odds

Buveur Dair @ 20/1 1/5th 1-3 and Yorkhill @ 10/1 1/5 1-3

They can get him beat by being on a better horse,or is that not possible to have a better horse?

Yorkhill, Yanworth and Tombstone would be the three to take him on imo, and for the sake of the Supreme, I really hope those three (or Bellshill instead of Yorkhill) turn up.

I'm hoping we see Buveur D'Air out again soon - haven't decided whether he looks top drawer, or Wait For Me was terrible on his debut - probably a bit of both.

Altior I would add to that list Chief.
No reason why they should not be in the Supreme if the connections of them think it's the right race. They have done no less than Min.
Wait for me as you mentioned is another that could possibly threaten if he. Continues improving his jumping.
Just never know with novices......well some seem to think they do,but they don't.
Still lots to look forward to in the Supreme mate,and the ARkle and CH ain't cut and dried either.
Keep the faith Chief.

Yeah mate, despite not particularly fancying him, Altior is in the mix too, and Henderson knows how to prep one for the Supreme (although I remember being on Darlan at 20/1, and looking back now, I have no idea how he didn't beat Cinders and Ashes!)

I think the Long Dog/Tombstone race in December will turn out to be a good race, and I'm actually surprised Long Dog is the price he is for the Neptune, I thought he'd be shorter.  Tombstone travelled well, but was interfered with a bit turning for home, so I think 25's on him is a very good price.

Russell talking about  Tombstone said he won't lose to Long Dog again,he likes this one I feel!!
I was thinking he would more likely go Neptune?

I think Altior is a bit different to some of the real good hurdlers that Hendo has seen get beat in the Supreme.....Sprinter,Spirit Son,Darlan etc.
He's more of the type that he will really go for the race with rather than a bit of wrapping in cotton wool.
Just get that feeling watching his style of racing that he's a horse that will really tough it out as a novice.
If he's thereabouts up,that hill he will take some beating imo.

Neptune would be a worry Budd, but he pulled quite hard in his last race, and that was over 2m, so I think a fast paced 2 miles would be perfect for him.

cant see yanworth or altior bellshill getting anywhere near min never mind beating him

Why's that?

I'd fear Yanworth for sure if he goes to the Supreme, a really good horse imo and was for me the one to take out of the Bumper last year.

Altior...I know he's highly rated etc but a narrow beating of Maputo doesn't really get my juices flowing as far as Supreme Novices' form goes. Just lacks a bit of star quality for me but would expect him to be finishing well and on the premises, just can't really have him as the winner.

my default is to try and pick holes in short priced novices pre festival but he was very impressive, would n't want to be opposing him at this stage.

Well Maputo was looking good and racked up a fair few performances.
Who knows how good he could have been.

Maybe sometimes people hear  about a new superstar,like what they see and then dismiss the rest.
One of the rest might just be a superstar.

Using the rating of the consistent Maputo (143) as a yardstick is Altior good enough to beat Yanworth (145), let alone Min?

I doubt it very much and I believe its current price of 7/1 is largely due to his 'connections' rather than abilities shown so far; I also believe if Yanworth was to swerve the Supreme and run in the Neptune instead it would be done solely because of the 'reputation' of Min (Modus, in the same ownership as Yanworth, is not good enough for either race); however, if Bellshill, the current 5/1 fav for the Neptune but without the pace to match Min, is rerouted to the Supreme to accommodate Yanworth then in my opinion 'history' is repeating itself ie it is akin to switching Shaneshill (Bellshill) to do battle with Douvan (Min) in last year's Supreme; if so, I believe it would be a mistake as I do not see Yanworth seeing out the Neptune trip as well as Bellshill in the Neptune or others eg Shantou Village, Long Dog, etc.

Is Altior not allowed to improve for a run? And be better as the season progresses??
I would also say that Maputo is a darn sight better horse than what Min has faced.

Your statement about priced up cos of connections......same could be said of Min....at a far skinnier price.

buddeliea,

I agree: on the surface, Maputo is a damn sight better horse, form wise, however, the reputation of Min's trainer/owner cannot be totally disregarded given their excellent track record recently hence its puny price; I'd also rather have Min at 2/1 (win) than Altior at 7/1 (e/w) in case Altior (in my opinion unlikely to win) and does not run into a place ie I do not wish to lose 2x capital, given the lack of depth of the British contingent and 'quality' of the Irish.

That's is the gist or hub of racing - a sport about opinions!

Of course opinions differ,and would not have it any other way.

Re lack of depth with the British and quality of the Irish.......do we actually know right now??
I don't!!
In fact I think the British novices could be better.......could be.
Min has looked impressive,and I like Yorkhill. Not so taken with others.
There's quiet a few British ones I like.

buddeliea

Could be....I sincerely hope you however, the evidence of the recent Irish forays into the British scene and 'stealing' the loot repeatedly do not auger well for the state of British Jump Racing eg even the mediocre Irish runner, Open Eagle, a 20/24f horse was able to finish runner up in a 16f race, with the 3rd (Marracudja) a further 7 lengths behind it.

I hope Altior, Yanworth, Moon Racer, and other potential British 'runners' take part in the Supreme despite Min.

I think Hendersons two will line up,Yanworth too,they look the best Supreme candidates for the Brits at this stage.

I hope so...it will give more credence to the 'winner' whoever that may be.

Well we all want the best 2m novices running in the Supreme.
Fair enough avoiding Sorinter Sacre in a QM at his best,but avoiding a twice raced Novice Hurdler? And one yet to beat a class rival??

Rather than just complaining about the Min hype and how ridiculously short he is, why don't you try and get a price for next year's Arkle? You could be ahead of the game. Or how about Up For Review for next year's RSA?

Delsers - UFR always unlikely to get his ground at Chelters - you'd be better off backing him for the 2017/18 Lexus.

impossible123 10 Jan 16 09:26 Joined: 07 Sep 15 | Topic/replies: 75 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
Using the rating of the consistent Maputo (143) as a yardstick is Altior good enough to beat Yanworth (145), let alone Min?

I doubt it very much and I believe its current price of 7/1 is largely due to his 'connections' rather than abilities shown so far; I also believe if Yanworth was to swerve the Supreme and run in the Neptune instead it would be done solely because of the 'reputation' of Min (Modus, in the same ownership as Yanworth, is not good enough for either race); however, if Bellshill, the current 5/1 fav for the Neptune but without the pace to match Min, is rerouted to the Supreme to accommodate Yanworth then in my opinion 'history' is repeating itself ie it is akin to switching Shaneshill (Bellshill) to do battle with Douvan (Min) in last year's Supreme; if so, I believe it would be a mistake as I do not see Yanworth seeing out the Neptune trip as well as Bellshill in the Neptune or others eg Shantou Village, Long Dog, etc.


I am sorry impossible123 but you confused the feck out of me with this post. No one apart from Altior and Min has confirmed which race they will run in yet or is it a case of your trying to 2nd guess where they will run

SEATHESTARS,

My apology if my post confused you - that was not intentional.

I was merely stating what A King said immediately post Yanworth latest win ie the horse would be aim at the Supreme or words along those lines (I'm too lazy to type out word for word what A King said then and I'm not computer savvy to paste either; his latest statement where he said..."BG will have a word with its owner........."

I'm on Yanworth - I want Yanworth to run in the Supreme and not duck Min as initially intended - but I've grave doubts post the latest statement.

All the best to you with the Cheltenham Festival!

My understanding is that Maputo got injured during Altiors race so he beat an injured horse. I had Altior backed that day and I felt he may have been lucky.

See what you mean re Yanworth.
I took what I thought was a slight risk in taking 20 for the Supreme as opposed to any race odds.
Now because I have been really impressed with this horse I have had to cover for the Neptune as that risk has increased with the trainers latest comments.
I really hope it's not because of Min that a change of plans could happen,cos if it is we could have rather a small field supreme.

Can't see shantou village, yanworth and barters hill all being declared to run for the neptune trial at the end of january Would be some race and I'd hate to price it up, but I'd expect atleast one to back out and go else where,

I would n't be that surprised - or at all perturbed - if Shantou Village went straight to the festival, looks like they want to keep him away from bad winter ground (although there is some respite from the rain this week at last).

There's the Grade 2 at Warwick that The New One won next Saturday - Yanworth could go for that I suppose - although the Midnight Prayer coughing might be a concern, Barters Hill was out just after Christmas so he might well wait for Cheltenham Trials Day.

Warwick is near Skelton's base so something like North Hill Harvey might turn up there although stable went a little out of form and then quiet.

Of course, Mullins might want to send some of his to most of the remaining UK trials too.

With regard to Modus, the way he has been campaigned and connections' modus operandi (pardon the pun!)has Betfair Hurdle written all over it - as his target, not for one moment suggesting he'll hack up there.

I've said above I really like Tombstone for the Supreme. Next target is the Delloite, so not many clues off that as its 2m2f. Recent winners of that have largely been split between Supreme and Neptune too.

Don't fancy taking the 8's and race when 25's is available for the Supreme.

Agreed re Tombstone ,  really keen early , one mistake and major meat in sandwich turning in . Obviously stays but surely faster pace will suit as well , so toss a coin .Have had to back in both .

One thing I haven't seen mentioned by anyone on the forum about min is that he cost €6000 euros.

MIN does not have many letters in his name and it did not take many Euros to buy him from France either as Willie Mullins suggested on Sunday that the hot favourite for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle has turned out to be one of the biggest bargains of his career.

Guy Petit initially purchased Min in November 2013 on behalf of trainer Yannick Fouin for just €6,000 and, despite two rather tame efforts at Auteuil, Mullins' French experts Pierre Boulard and Harold Kirk decided it was worth taking a chance on the Walk In The Park gelding.

"Min was not overly expensive at all," said Mullins about the Rich and Susannah Ricci-owned five-year-old who was on Sunday cut to a general 6-4 (from 7-4) after bookmakers reported sustained support for him to win the opening race at the Cheltenham Festival after Saturday's sizzling success at Punchestown.

Clue in the pedigree

"If you look at his form in France, he was beaten quite a distance in his two runs, so he didn't have a huge price tag. The reason we were so interested in him at the time was because he was by Walk In The Park, who was the same sire as Douvan. 

"At the time we thought quite a bit of Douvan, even though it was very early in his career, so we thought it might be worth taking a chance on Min and that is what we did. 

"Yannick Fouin did recommend him to us and Harold and Pierre  both liked him. But he wasn't overly expensive at all. It is not always about spending the most money and Min proves that."

Mullins said that Min is unlikely to run again before the Cheltenham Festival after emerging from his impressive win in the Sky Bet Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle in good shape."I would say it's likely Min will head straight there now. He was fine this morning," Mullins added.

Cheap at 6000 euros but that was before Getafix gave him the magic potion.

bit disingenuous that story, previous connections paid 6000 Euros for him but you can bet that Mullins and the Riccis paid considerably more than that when buying him privately.

I don't think RR paid more than 30K for him, and there are Nicky and Nicholls owners who spend tenfold more for a single horse. Josses Hill was bought for 100K and Faugheen who beat him by miles was bought for alot less by RR. I think RR mentioned he's not willing to pay stupid money for his horses and changed the source from France and Ireland a few times depending on where it was cheaper. He changed the game and because of him, everything from the build-up to the festival, is far more interesting. Brilliant!

I'm not disputing any of that - although your 30k is guesswork unless you know more than you're letting on - the article quotes 6,000 EUR which is completely irrelevant in the context of Mullins quote that he was n't overly expensive at all because that's what previous connections paid - also that was probably a reasonable sum at the time because nobody knew what Douvan was capable of in November 2013.

It's the sort of reporting that irks me (as you can tell!) because it links a figure with a quote when there is no link at all.

Anyway, the Walk In The Park progeny are likely to be more expensive from now on - probably be oversold to the NJH and Nicholls owners!

Are these walk in the park progeny few and far between in uk and irl at the moment or do we have a few more to look forward to in the coming weeks? Have any others already been out and if so how have they fared? Surely min and douvan aren't the only walk in the parks around!

I'm sure if we ask RR through Lydia Hislop or Matt Chapman, via twitter/email, when they'll next interview him how much his horses cost, or at least the range of his investment he'll be open about it. I'm sure it was under 30K for Min, I could be wrong of course but if he cost 6K, his former owners would've been happy to get 10-20K as it would have doubled their initial cost and with the 2 disappointing runs I doubt they would've asked for much more.

Min will go off between 10/11 and 4/6 for the Supreme.

Jan 10, 2016 -- 9:43PM, CheltenhamRoar wrote:

Are these walk in the park progeny few and far between in uk and irl at the moment or do we have a few more to look forward to in the coming weeks? Have any others already been out and if so how have they fared? Surely min and douvan aren't the only walk in the parks around!

Just had a quick look on the Racing Post database - Sampark looks pretty interesting based on his French form last Spring.

Gary Moore has a couple - Antony (pulled up at Kempton over Christmas) and Puisque Du Pars (not seen since falling at Fontwell last April)who look potential improvers but nowhere near the level of Douvan and Min. Same goes for Robert Walford's Walk In The Mill who ran well behind Doctor Phoenix on his British debut before appearing to get stuck in the mud at Chepstow nto.

Not sure the research is particularly meaningful, but a pleasant enough way to while away 10 minutes!

Cheers ReaseHeath appreciate the time and effort, interesting as you say, with a couple of potential improvers, particularly when trained by Moore.

I'd be more inclined as to ask Mullin's where he sources his feed and what he adds into it myself

Jan 10, 2016 -- 10:47PM, CheltenhamRoar wrote:

Cheers ReaseHeath appreciate the time and effort, interesting as you say, with a couple of potential improvers, particularly when trained by Moore.

No problem, just looked a bit further and sadly Puisque Tu Pars fall at Fontwell was fatal so count him out.

Anyway, should probably get back to Min as per thread - interesting that on the day Champagne Fever went off at 5/1, Vautour at 7/2, Douvan 2/1 - Min already 7/4.

CF was  change of plan if I remember correctly,and available at much bigger than 5 not Long before the festival.

yes Rease,that is the pattern emerging.

There is no doubt that Min will go off shorter than he should be, but that doesn't give credence to whether he will win or not. I suspect that in the coming years if WM/RR have a horse for said race (Supreme) it will be made fav' before debut for next years Supreme and that said horses will gradually get shorter year on year out until one loses.
We see it every day on the run of the mill stuff, when one starts to strike up a string of wins in sellers, claimers, handicaps even, they might be 20/1 for first win but will be 2/1f next one then 11/10 till they lose of course dependent upon opposition but they will always get over-bet!! This is just a much longer term example and the reason why i tend to just dismiss these until the day where i see where the offers are if i decide to bet them at all.

Just backed altior at 7/1 before he shortens again, monster rating but just cover for min and yorkhill.
Can't believe the rating they've given yorkhill 141. Hes the winner Imo

Just backed altior at 7/1 before he shortens again, monster rating but just cover for min and yorkhill.
Can't believe the rating they've given yorkhill 141. Hes the winner Imo

Anyone who thinks Min cost 30k needs to pack it in, as do the people who think Min is already weighed in at Cheltenham.
You just know who the lugs are by their posts.

Regarding the sentiment about Min appearing to be weighed in already, the complacent thought that Mullins just has to turn up with his stars to do even better than last year kind of devalues his marvelous achievements in 2015. If this was the stock market I would say there may be trouble ahead for euphoric bulls. I bet the bookies will be milking the hype for all they're worth and I'll tip them to be the big winners at Cheltenham.

As I said, quote today from Ladsbroke:
"It is by no means an exaggeration to say the punters have an insatiable appetite for this horse."
That's as they're shortening it to 5/4. Marketing department in overdrive.

Min had been towards the top of the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle betting before he'd even had a race for Mullins, but Walsh indicated they'd thought for a while that they had another talented horse on their hands.

He said: "We had him this time last year and he was working well. He won the schooling hurdle at Thurles last March and for a pretty inexperienced horse we thought it was pretty good work."

Earlier in the article there was this bit:
Walsh told Racing UK: "He was very good, but he's probably as short as he is owing to the reputation of the connections the last couple of years, is there much value in that? I wouldn't think so and in all honesty come the day he's probably going to be longer than he is at this minute in time.

"If he was going to be a Supreme Novices' horse he was going to have to win and win the way he did. I don't think he's done anymore than Yanworth, Altior and what those sort of horses have done."

Autocue as someone else said on the other thread. Hes hardly going to say that he expects min to hose up on the bridle is he.
Then min dosent win and everyone's going crazy.
If you've backed min, all your expecting is a decent chance of winning,
Currents odds at 6/4 indicate a 40% chance of winning.
As much as I wouldn't back now, id say that's not unreasonable

He's just saying it as it is...he ain't done no more then those he mentioned.

Think we are in for a real good Supreme this year.

I'll balance out Ruby's comments for Min fans - listening to the Final Furlong podcast here and Robbie McNamara says he spoke to Willie the other day and asked,

"Is Min as good as the hype and as good as he's looked?"

Willie responds, "Better."

I look forward to seeing if he's the best around in March.
Gonna be a cracker I tell ya!!

That latest FF podcast is the absolute cracker , have a go when you're at gym or whatever(soundcloud app or itunes podcast) https://soundcloud.com/emmet-kennedy/cheltenham-focus-novice-hurdlers liten till the end for the cut bits

All Min fans will have enjoyee watching Gurteen sluice up at Navan

Just watched back the Moscow Flyer Hurdles which Vautour and Douvan won. Ruby done what he liked with them - only taking it up in the straight between the last two flights. By comparison, Min done what he liked and took a fair old hold. In my opinion it was visually impressive but the two Gigginstown horses he beat are point to point winners. He was entitled to quicken away from them like that.

One thing that struck me was how poorly Vautour jumped in his win. I suppose that's why they ran him in the Deloitte whereas can we take it that by taking Min straight to Cheltenham, like Douvan, they are satisfied he has learned the trade of hurdling already? I wouldn't be rushing to back him at 13/8 though if he's going to light up like that.

Think they are happy enough that he'll settle in a quicker race, on better ground.

is the C.HURDLER not a former p2p'er

Is Faugheen the first? I suppose to develop my point - winners of point to points do not typically turn out to be top class 2m hurdlers. Faugheen is an exception. Attribution and Ball D'Arc may also be exceptions. But I doubt it.

Yet another form boost for Min - Ball D'Arc scoots up having been stuffed 10 plus lengths by Min

His form is starting to look bombproof.... Can't really work out why PP are still top price and trying to get him!

I wished Min had been earmarked for the Deloitte this weekend rather than the last race he won; it'd have meant his status in the market was justified or too lofty; its prices have been drifting lately, and should it be 5/2 - 7/2 it could be quite tempting on race day.

Can't Catch Me at a guess id say it might be because their big first race offer will be Money Back all runners if Min wins so will be filled in on all the supposed dangers.

Good judge that punkha

Yes good shout punka

If PP does oppose Min he is likely to drift on the day.... Altior (6/1 currently) will likely shorten.... boy, the race certainly lacks depth.

Altior is the most likely as a few others just after him could go elsewhere! He is my eway for the race as looks like pretty solid eway in the race!

.