Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
TNO has always been a favourite horse of mine since he won the bumper at the National meeting at Aintree. I was on him from the price of 25/1 down to 6/1 for the 2013 Neptune so the horse doesn't really owe me anything. Obviously he was a bit unlucky in the 2014 Champion Hurdle and something was obviously amiss at this years Cheltenham (the most alarming thing being a drift on here to around 14.0 6 days before the race only to see his price come right back in again). Nigel Twiston-Davies retains his faith that the horse is Champion Hurdle quality and that must be something as this year (as a 7 year old) would be the ideal time to go novice chasing.
The Champion this year looks a bit of a muddling one. We can safely assume that Douvan is going chasing. We've got 2 of Peace & Co, Top Notch and Hargam (my guess would be Top Notch goes chasing and the other two stay hurdling) and My Tent back for Henderson. Faugheen and Arctic Fire will be the main Irish contenders. I think TNO needs a quickly run 2 miles. There was talk of NTD putting pacemaker in the race in 2014 but that never materialised and IMO that is the one and only way TNO would have any chance.
What do you lot think?
The Champion this year looks a bit of a muddling one. We can safely assume that Douvan is going chasing. We've got 2 of Peace & Co, Top Notch and Hargam (my guess would be Top Notch goes chasing and the other two stay hurdling) and My Tent back for Henderson. Faugheen and Arctic Fire will be the main Irish contenders. I think TNO needs a quickly run 2 miles. There was talk of NTD putting pacemaker in the race in 2014 but that never materialised and IMO that is the one and only way TNO would have any chance.
What do you lot think?
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 25
|
By:
Been treated for kissing spine during the summer, Hopefully it's worked.
Think the CH boat has sailed for him though and chasing should be on his agenda. |
|
By:
I can't see him chasing as his jumping simply isn't good enough. If his speed has started to go you can really only aim him at the World Hurdle. He switches off nicely enough and would have too much speed for all of that lot (apart from Annie Power maybe) and if Annie doesn't turn up this year it looks ripe for the taking.
|
|
By:
I didn't know TNO had been diagnosed with kissing spine. How did that piece of news pass me by?
This is an article I have found, on Kissing Spines, from last March, just in case anyone is interested. .http://www.horseandhound.co.uk/features/explaining-kissing-spines-58084 I love The New One  Would dearly love to see him win the Champion Hurdle next March. |
|
By:
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/the-new-one-misses-aintree-with-spinal-complaint/1843826/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews
|
|
By:
Know a few at Twistas yard MD, Horse was having issues all season which really came to a head 2 weeks before Cheltenham.
I heard the owners had a big fall out as a few wanted to pull the horse while others wanted to run, Was talk of sending him to the sales after and splitting the money down the middle, Hopefully they've resolved their differences and all is well again. |
|
By:
I hope the op helps him. He looked like his best days were behind him at Cheltenham.
|
|
By:
NTD has said TNO remains a Champion Hurdle horse in his view. If he has recovered from kissing spine problem then he must have a decent chance. In 2013 Champion Hurdle an early interference did for him and he was coming like a train towards the finish. 2014 he clearly wasn't right with the injury but still got within 8 lengths of a very impressive/unbeaten Faugheen. Between these two Champion Hurdle races he was 5/5 for season. At 20/1 he has to be a decent punt doesn't he.
|
|
By:
Apologies all. Got years mixed up. Meant 2014 and 2015 Champion Hurdles.
 |
|
By:
Faugheen is till the one to beat but who wants 5/4 and never be scared of 1 horse anyway. Peace and Co is a 4yr old Triumph winner and they have a terrible Champ hurdle record, but he did look very good. Douvan is going for the Arkle and I don’t think Arctic Fire is as good as TNO. Nicholls Canyon and Windsor Park want further IMO and My Tent Or Yours is coming back from injury. Hargam is 4yr old as well.
Therefore I do think TNO is overpriced and have had a bet today at 25/1 EW. Not sure he'd beat Faugheen though even at his best but at the prices I'm in. |
|
By:
Thanks for that, gutfeeling.
|
|
By:
The most fascinating thing for me to want to see at this stage is if they have managed to perform some sort of minor miracle and gotten MTOY's to switch off through his races...if they have and he's lost none of his ability, then I wouldn't be looking any further than him at this stage unless he's going chasing(big price on here for CH at the moment.....aside from him, I think Peace and Co would also provide serious opposition to Faugheen....wouldn't be interested in anything else.
|
|
By:
Just watched last years Triumph and Peace & Co really tanked through that race. Only came off the bridle in the last 150 yards to see off Top Notch (who I also believe is a very good horse). With the natural improvement from 4 to 5 he could be very good this year. If My Tent Or Yours hasn't lost any of his ability he will be there or there abouts.
|
|
By:
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10020878/sam-twiston-davies-relishing-top-job-with-paul-nicholls
Sam Twiston-Davies very upbeat about the fortunes of TNO at the bottom of that article. Seems that they have changed things up at home, new saddles, different exercise etc. He will still only be 8 by the time of the next Champion Hurdle, plenty of time to go again. Although, he did mention that the early clashes with Peace & Co would point them the way with the horse, maybe acknowledging that they may send him over further if his speed has gone? |
|
By:
Wearing bungees will force his head down to keep his back straight and make him also use his back end more to build strength.
Just saying in case people were wondering as to their purpose. |
|
By:
Re TNO's jumping not being good enough; I think that is exactly the reason why he needs to go chasing - something like the Jewson (now a G1) would be perfect for him.
Simonsig was always sloppy over his hurdles and didn't treat them with much respect - he was electric over fences though. I too think even without his injury, TNO would not have the speed to win a CH now. The 2.5m distance of the Jewson would be his ideal distance imo, and fences could really liven him up. Would have to do it now though, as he'll be an old novice chaser if they leave it another year. |
|
By:
no
|
|
By:
no
|
|
By:
I'm gonna take a different approach and say that his performance today was actually quite impressive.
I've always been a fan of this boy, think he was robbed in 2014 and had excuses this year where Faugheen went no pace and an injury came to light. Leaving behind my personal feelings for him, I went into today's race with a blank slate; he obviously had plenty to prove. To me, he's a 2 miler, not a speed 2 miler (ala My Tent or Yours) but more of a galloping 2 miler (like Jezki or Hurricane Fly) They went no pace today and that could easily have been his undoing. Stephanie Frances, who's well-regarded by the Skelton's, is an archetypal slow-slow-quick horse. If you look at her best runs, they come in races where they go no gallop, and she can use her turn of foot and put the race to bed before the others know what's hit them. Today's race, slow gallop, flat track suited her perfectly. She was getting 7 pounds from him and although loomed up, The New One showed a better turn of foot than I thought he had and battled on all the way to the line, lengthening at the finish. To me, he looked as good as ever and, if they go a better gallop in the CH this year, he can push Faugheen and the others very close. I rate him at his best (Cheltenham 2014) to be a 170 performer and, if my hunch is correct and he's back to that, he really has very little to find with Faugheen. At 20/1 he's good value and, if he lines up, he'll be placed minimum. |
|
By:
"and had excuses this year where Faugheen went no pace"
This is a myth. It was the 7th fastest time in the last 25 years, and it was ran on good/soft ground. If you take out the faster 6 times which didn't had soft in their description its actually the fastest overall time. It wasn't a "no pace" under any way someone objective views it. Could it have been run faster? Yes. Would that have helped TNO? I'm not sure. Would it have helped Faugheen? Absolutely yes based on his Christmas Hurdle run. |
|
By:
|
|
By:
With your no-pace theory TNO would've only had a chance in the 6 CHs of the last 25 years, incidentally he participated in one in 2014. I argued before that what he lost that day more than the ground from Our Conor fall was his racing position but he's simply not good enough and couldn't even make up the ground in a mile plus. Worse, he even got outpaced 2 out and only made easy ground late on past tiring horses which suggests further might suit him well, although he again made heavy work to beat Diakali over 20f at Aintree.
As you can see from above stats, the only place where the pace was considerably slower was from 1st to 2nd hurdle. Secondly what those stats don't tell you that in the CH it was only a horse who lead from the get-go to the finish line, while in the novices there were multiple horses involved in making that time. If you take a look at flat racing where course records and overall times are more important you'll see that most are set by class 2 or 3 horses, not by group horses, thats because in class 2/3 handicaps multiple horses take the lead and create that concerted effect in which the record is achieved. It means nothing and says nothing about the pace at which a horse can go or its quality. |
|
By:
Apparently they had ironed out a few issues over the summer....jumping out to the right appears not to be one of them......he's shown not to be good enough already and now to be handicapped by not jumping straight ...well...say no more.
|
|
By:
not for me anymore. Stuck up for him all last season cos I felt he was really unlucky the year before,but I now think that was his chance,and now that is gone imo.
Faugheen is simply a better horse,and I suspect PAC will be as well. |
|
By:
totally agree the CH hurdle dream has passed him by, the bula course suits him a lot better to
if all the big guns turn up in the CH, surley they have to look at the stayers, had it between fly and jezki with neither turning up he could start very short. |
|
By:
This horse has had one excuse after another. They would be much better advised to go down the World Hurdle route as he will not beat Faugheen although he could feasibly fall into a place if ridden to do so.
|