Ante Post Musings- Triumph Hurdle

I already backed zubayr my first big bet in the triumph that I posted on here at 20s but I was put off when I went to the yard and they wasnt sure he'd be ready in time . Nice when a bet you almost thought was lost comes back in a big way.

I wasnt blown away by the Adonis winner
Just looked at his time
Slower than the Dovecote carrying 8 lb less

Not for me at 6-1

Scooby- Where can you watch French replays?

jb 23 you can watch on france gallop or arqana. you get a free trial then you have to buy credits works out about 10p a race but if your backing larger sums, id rather know what im backing. although pilansberg was obviously poor, cashed out my bet for a 10% loss with 365. should have backed zubayr with them too last night, and also cashed out if lost  but I was happy with what I already had on.


04 Sep 2015 15:46

JCB Triumph Hurdle

Outright Ante Post, Zubayr, 20/1 Single £40.00 (Pot. Ret. £840.00)

Open

Nice! Cheers mate. I'll check that out. Whats your best position in the Triumph?

I don't even know. iv thrown a few darts and got no idea whats going to win, iv backed.
footpad 25s
Adrien du pont 25s runs tomorrow if dosent win, wont line up.
allblak des places 25s
zubayr 20s
pilansberg 75s and 40s ew (cashed out for 10% loss)
peak to peak 220.0 scratched from the race.

ill leave it at that and take my chances.

and ivanovich gorabatov at 14s to a small stake.  though if i backed on betfair id lay it off.

As expected a change in the going and 7lb weight concession to Zubayr proved too much for Gibralfaro; Zubayr ran very well as a 1st timer nevertheless at 7/1 is just too skinny in my opinion; Azzuri, the runner up and beaten 3.75l, finished way down the field to Charbel.

Weren't that impressed yesterday,but no doubt Zabayr will improve for the run.
He will have to.

Well I for one was fairly impressed especially in terms of the form we've seen this year for the Triumph. Yes it was a strange race, but if all bar the long term leader had their own race, he won easily. He picked up that leader actually quite readily and the fact that didn't go along way clear perhaps says more about his inexperience. Also thought on the whole he jumped very well.

For me the stiffer course and the likely pace of the Triumph will only serve in his favour and whilst current price isn't that appealing, don't see one I'd rather back in front of him

Anyone know what the situation is with Leoncavello? I'm personally all over Sceau Royal for the Triumph but can't work out why one is 6-1 and the other is 33-1 given their formline together

it doesn't look like Zubayr beat much yesterday, I'm sure the horse will come on for the experience though. It didn't seem to settle very well and drifted massively in running (traded over 100 for a few quid) despite never being out of contention. It's hard to believe it's under 7/1 now, plenty others with better form in the book and much bigger prices

yes, jb23, Leoncavallo is very interesting especially with NRNB available at 33/1. It also looks like the likely better ground will suit too

Jb23 leoncavallo goes to triumph according to an article I found last night by John ferguson.  Despite stating I wouldn't back another I took all the 100.0 about leoncavallo as o diddnt realise allblakdesplaces had been scratched. that will do me.

Ferguson has had just eight runners and a single winner in February but his yard is full of horses that were bred to win middle-distance Classics and his overall strike rate this season is 31%. When, or if, spring ground appears, his prolific early-season form is likely to return as well.

Wolfcatcher, who lines up against several other useful juveniles in the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton, is a typically blue-blooded runner from the Ferguson stable, by King’s Best out of a Sadler’s Wells mare. He is quoted at 20-1 for the Fred Winter and bigger for the Triumph, though he could yet miss Cheltenham and head for Aintree instead.

“I worked him on Tuesday before I left and I was delighted with him,” Ferguson said. “He’s the sort of horse that I’m hoping will really be suited by some better ground at Kempton. He’s done nothing wrong, he won at Market Rasen early in the season and then came back and got beaten by Dan Skelton’s horse [Kasakh Noir]. He fluffed the second-last and I think if he’d jumped that a bit better, he might have finished a short-head in front. He deserves to take his chance and we’ll know a lot more about him afterwards.

“I’ve also got Leoncavallo for the Triumph, who I’m very happy with, and [the third-favourite] Jaleo for the Fred Winter, so we might decide to go for the Grade One juvenile at Aintree instead. The whole point of tomorrow is to decide which one of those three routes we are going to take.”

Ferguson’s entries for the Festival also include Penglai Pavilion, who finished fifth in the 2013 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and took a valuable novice hurdle at Cheltenham earlier in the season. His best chance to saddle a Cheltenham Festival winner at the final attempt, however, could come in the Bumper, the target for the five-year-old High Bridge.

Even by Ferguson’s standards, High Bridge has a pedigree from the top drawer. He is by Monsun, an outstanding sire of stayers whose offspring include Estimate, the Queen’s Ascot Gold Cup winner, and consecutive Melbourne Cup winners in Fiorente and Protectionist. His dam, meanwhile, was Ameerat, the winner of the 1,000 Guineas in 2001.

A lot to like about Zubayr yesterday. Ran very green and was doing his best work at the end. Looks like he'll be suited by the pace and stamina test of the Triumph. Wouldn't swap him for anything else at this moment.

Good to know Leoncavallo is in good nick and ready for the Triumph and the long uphill finish at Cheltenham is just what he relishes.

I cant see past the front 2 at presnt - doesnt look at deep heat at all, i dont fancy Sceau Royal, i was hoping Adrien Du Pont ran today and told me more about that form.

Why didn't Zubayr beat much? Skelton has a high opinion of the second and the form of Gibralfaro and St Saviour was pretty good. I happen to think the sharp track may not have suited Gibralfaro, but you couldn't back any of the other runners yesterday to beat Zubayr.

I was underwhelmed by the race too to be honest - probably need to watch it again but Azzuri benefited from an enterprising ride, and got a soft lead probably partly because the jockeys on some of the others probably wanted to ease them into the race due to their lack of experience - the winner was impressive enough but I would n't be sure that the form is that reliable due to the way the race was run, not sure that matters though - looking back Zarkandar did n't beat much in his renewal.

On a different tack, does anybody know what is happening with Apple's Jade who beat Jer's Girl over Christmas? 

Struggling to get a handle on this race, can see me not having a bet apart from the placepot perm.

Zubayr was running for the 1st time but receiving 7lbs from Gibralfaro who beat Duke of Medinas (DoM) by 0.5l but was receiving 6lbs; DoM finished 8l behind Who Dares Wins (ran too freely and giving 3lbs) and 11l behind Protek Des Flos (receiving 4lbs), in a much better race. Also, the form of the runner up did amount to much either, and at 7/1 no value at all.

On the other hand in Ireland Footpad beat Let's Dance by 3l where Ivanovich Gorbatov (IG) finished unplaced-this is about the same distance Ivanovich Gorbatov beat LD previously, and that was better form.

Rease- There was a Mullins thing on ATR today at lunchtime. AJ was mentioned with talk of the festival but is all fit & healthy otherwise

Thanks, Jb

I would not take Gibralfaro's first run as a guide to his ability. He was only asked to race from 2 furlongs out and still made up 10 lengths to win. His second run is a better guide to his ability but Alan King doesn't seem to rate him so you may be right.

All i know about this race is that it's an absolute mine field! Will do well to find the winner this year imo! Just as easily as them at the head of the market could win, so could a lot of those at the bottom of the market also. Can see there being another Countrywide Flame or Tiger Roll type lurking!

really impressed with zubayr must have huge chance

WHO DARES WINS - Seems to be missed, he won the race at Doncaster by 20l that Peace & Co also won easily last year, before winning the Triumph. He then only got beat 3 3/4 lengths on punishing heavy ground that he hated at Cheltenham in the grade 2 Protek des Flos won. He also went for home to soon as he was travelling so well, and the first 2 came from the back - good judges said he looked the winner for most the race.
He is by Jeremy (USA) and Alan King has said he will be even better when he gets some decent ground - A. King clearly thinks he has a massive chance in the Triumph and he knows a thing or two about training Triumph winners. 
Looks a massive bet at 14/1 still in places.

Footpad, another inmate of WPM that's improving and also has the best juvenile form eg beating Let's Dance, a much thought off stablemate and Ivanovich Gorbatov in his latest run, seemed to be friendless over the weekend. Any reason to be concerned Mr Mullins and/or those close to the yard?

I agree Bowler. WDW offers the value in this race for me. Trainer really likes him and better ground will help.

Hope so!!

hendo when asked about his horses chance  hinted  there is a "monster" waiting to be unleashed from nicholls yard if as expected it was zubyar then he must be taken seriously ,have backed conetable but looking for some backup and if this fella drifts to a better price I would have some ,  connections aim  their better juveniles at the Adonis and it was probably a  high class field ,big drift on the winner but still won well should improve a bundle and one to take seriously imo. wether the brit juveniles  are better thn the irish is another matter .

At just about a point bigger than Ivanovich Gorbatov (IG) I'd have IG over Zubayr in the Triumph or even Gibralfaro at levels should they next meet on soft ground or over 20f on good because I think the marked change in going and 7lbs concession proved too much for Gibralfaro over the weekend.

Willie said apples jade footpad and let's dance run in the triumph and that "he can't see past footpad in the race"

Adonis winner has good record of following up in Triumph,bit short but on at 6/1.

"WPM can't see past Footpad for the Triumph" - how peculiar? No one wanted Footpad at 20/1 from 13 over the weekend!

What is so surprising about Zubayr's win on Saturday is that he has been the talking horses for months for the Triumph but still started at pretty big odds in the Adonis. Those "in the know" must either have thought that he needed the run or didn't think he was as good as the early hype. We now know that he is and providing he takes the race well, should improve for the run.

Agree fully with Bowler , also see WDW as one of the quickest jumpers and now should get a decent tow from Azzuri .

sage, from listening to PN on the Morning Line, I think he felt the horse was just a bit immature. He actually picked his other runner as the most likely of his two to win, and said that a couple of weeks prior to the race, he thought Zubayr probably wouldnt run this season. THink he thought the horse was as good as the hype, just maybe not ready yet. Agree he should improve significantly for the first run, just as Connetable did.

Just watched the RacingUK Cheltenham preview and Henderson gave a good shout for CONSUL DE THAIX and says it runs.  Was amazed at the price on here so had a dabble.  He was 3rd in the Triumph trial at Cheltenham behind Protek Des Flos (also Hendersons and won since, but he says won't run) Clan Des Obeaux now 16/1 and just in front of Who Dares wins a 14/1 shot.  Henderson says he expects it to come out on top against those as has improved since and that was its only run for the yard.  NICE PRICE in a wide open contest.

Who Dares Wins (WDW) ran keen then along with Clan Dess Obeaux (CDO) hence cut each other's throat according to their trainers; the price of Consul De Thaix is indeed tempting but receiving 7lbs and 4lbs respectively though. I cannot fancy IG and Zubayr at those prices, but value could be had with Footpad at 10/1 with S..bet (nrnb and free bet if a loser) I think.

Yeah, I was at Chelt that day and actually backed CDO & I appreciate that Consul De Thaix was getting weight but it was only his 2nd ever run and first for Henderson.  Sounded like Henderson thought quite a bit of him and he'd come on.  Anyway you don't need much on at 3 figures.  Like I say it tempted me.

Hendo said Protek Des Flos may be a bit weak. He didn't say he won't run.

I fancy him.

Chatwell. Pretty sure he confirmed he won't be running. But as long as your on nrnb your fine.

Zubayr challenging IG for 'fav', how absurd is that? The former was receiving 7lbs, and IG comprehensively beaten in their previous races. On the other hand, Footpad, the conqueror on IG, is on the drift.

Any further update on Leoncavallo? I really fancy this horse, and at 80 on the Exchange I hope it is still on track for the Triumph next week.

Zubayr is just 'fav' here at 6.8, and IG has drifted to 7; Seau Royal has eased but Footpad and WDW contracted to about 13.

Lads when IG won the ground was Heavy, when he got beat it was Soft/Heavy - listening to the skybet preview from last night the ground when he got beat was described as Bottomless, i cant get my head around some of these going descriptions as you had your man on C4 from Leopardstown saying it was Soft/Heavy but good racing ground and then youve got others saying it was Bottomless. Watching all of the races that day there weren't half a lot of tired horses.

Impossible. Leoncavallo is still on track for the triumph.
I seen an interview yesterday. He said he can't see why one horse is 7s (sceau royal) and 1 is 33/1 on there previous meetings.
I haven't backed SR but I do really like him,

This interview was yesterday with Emma Spencer.

But he is particularly bullish about the chances of Jaleo in the Fred Winter, a 14/1 chance and another who hacked up at Catterick on his last start.

“I think he is great each-way value. I’m very pleased with him.”

Leoncavallo is another contender who he thinks has been underestimated by the layers. “He was upsides the leaders at the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham when he unseated. The horse he beat at Wetherby before that, Sceau Royal, is a 7/1 shot and he’s 33/1 so I think he’s another with decent value.”

Pengai Pavilion was ‘off colour’ when beaten last time out but had won his previous three starts, and  Ferguson not writing off his chances in the Supreme, while although big World Hurdle outsider Aqalim is a ‘monkey’, he could run a big race ‘if he wanted to’.

“We’ve got a great team of horses and just hope they all do themselves justice,” he added.

Charwell.
Henderson mentioned protek des flos as still a possible runner last night, fehily would take the ride.

If people on IG at big prices before his first run fair enough.

If people backed IG post debut I can understand, sort of, justifying that he may still win and reasons why.

But his current price against those who beat him fair and square is frankly ridiculous and the worst value of any current favourite.

Of course he could win but why would anyone back him now at these prices?

Leoncavallo is a crazy price, a few quid at 48 on here

Of course he could win but why would anyone back him now at these prices?

When the ground has dried out to near Good on the last day ive got a funny feeling JPM will be having a few bob on this around 5/1 6/1.

scooby

Thank-you for the update on the Ferguson's runners.

I do like Leoncavallo particularly with the long run and uphill finish where Leoncavallo excelled on when he beat SR at Wetherby. And at 33/1 or 80 here (now 48) I think it is good value for e/w (13 for a place here) at least.

I'd lay Zubayr at 2/1 or less for a place because I believe it is too inexperienced and the race he won at Kempton (I understand Zarkandar (blah, blah, blah) does not represent the best form to me; I think the Irish contingent would back IG, Let's Dance and Footpad on the day.

So @mrgloves, you saying he ran 'poorly' so JP could get a price?

Not implying that what soever, IG had a stoned foot or something apparently, the ground wasnt to his liking, the money for it that day suggested they were expecting a better run than what actually took place. I think the money will come for it.

Cheers Scooby

Bet with your head and not your heart; if IG was trained by someone else its price now will be nearer 25/1 instead of 6/1.

Finally went through this race the other day (never an antepost race for me), and the two against the field for me now are Footpad and Let's Dance (both 12's but backed both at 14 the other day).

The visor made a big difference to Footpad last time out, and whilst it was a worry that he was off the bridle quite early, the way he picked up round the home turn was very impressive.  Good ground at Cheltenham would be the biggest worry as all his winning is on heavy and soft, and especially the way he accelerated in almost unraceable ground last time, suggest he wants a decent bit of cut.

That said, Mullins said he "can't get passed Footpad", and that's good enough for me.

Let's Dance has bags of ability and travels through her race with lots of class.  I thought she might be a bit of a bridle merchant, but the way she rallied last time to almost get second shows she isn't.  Last time out she front ran, in desperate ground and was a sitting duck for something in behind.  The way she travels, I think better ground will bring improvement, and although she was AP favourite before the start of the season, she has ran creditably in defeat on both occasions.

With something like Azurri in the field going off like a nutter, she won't have to front run this time, and I think she'll have a huge chance.  I'd assume Ruby is likely to be on her too.

Both trained by Mullins, and very rare you get two Mullins runners with solid G1 form going into the festival at double figure prices.  His record in this race, compared to something like the Supreme or Neptune, is a bit of a worry, but he is the master novice hurdler trainer, and at the prices, these'll do for me.

this ivanovich gorbatov screams out at me as a horse that will absolutely relish cheltenham and spring ground

I'm all over it like a sore rash

Can someone tell me why Leoncavallo is 33/1 and Sceau Royal 7/1. What am I missing here?.  It seems to be going for the triumph as it looks like Coleman already booked to ride the horse.  It beat Sceau Royal earlier in the season and was closing and challenging the same horse in its last race when it unseated.  Was/is the horse injured or was it the ground that has kept it off the track since december.  I see that as the only negative with a lower flat rating of 68.

Leoncavallo Was just kept for better ground. I can see why SR is a shorter price, but I can't see why leoncavallo is a 331 shot

there's plenty of us on here that are baffled by the price on Leoncavallo, I think the solution is to just keep piling in! why on earth this horse is 33/1 is beyond me

I hope JPM agrees with us LR

At last sense has prevailed, Zubayr is out to 7 here but only wanted at 17, and Leoncavallo into 34.

Zub's didnt school well, come on the IG !

Mr G
Zubayr schooled well against tommy silver yesterday morning according to nicholls. Said tommy silver would need to improve.
Clan des obeaux and adrien du pont not certain runners

"Zubayr has worked very well this morning with tommy silver and he has improved enormously from his kept on run"
Paul nicholls.

* Kempton.

Ive heard i didnt school well lol. CDO wont want it drying like it is. IG will love this ground and i cant have Pont nor Royal form on my mind.

RW has switched allegiance - he's on Footpad for SM (despite ground) - and not on Let's dance (RR). I think it will be gambled on tomorrow, currently 8/1 from 10/1.

Money coming in for Footpad here.

Feb 29, 2016 -- 6:56PM, scooby91 wrote:

Willie said apples jade footpad and let's dance run in the triumph and that "he can't see past footpad in the race"

It could be more that: RW is not riding RR's Let's Dance but Simon Munir's Footpad - RW has jumped ship for the 1st time (I think).

He'd be on Ricci's if he thought it was the best.

Are we keeping the Faith with IG todays lads or not ?

Nope, cannot have IG. My 4 against the field are Footpad, Who Dares Wins, Leoncavallo and Gilbrafaro.

cannot have IG at all. i'm still happy with WDW but i think footpad will also have a chance.

I like Sceau Royal, but it's not a race i'd get too involved in. Mullins likes   Footpad, yet i'm still daft enough to think IG could be the best of the Irish runners. My only real advice would be for smaller staked mugs like myself to take the sky bet 'money back as a free bet' concession.(up to 25 quid)

On Footpad at 33's and I still think he is the one to beat today. Mullins comments have only strengthened that view.

^^^ should  add it's money back if your selection loses.

I'v a few decent chances here antepost.
But if I haddnt already backed here, id be all ove sceau royale with 4 places think he's got a great chance.

Money keeps pouring in for Footpad, down to 8.2 here and still being backed, and RW is riding for Munir despite RR has a runner in Let's Dance.

If Ivanovich Gorbatov hadn't run lto he'd be a sub 4.0 shot here. They thought he wasn't right and that the ground will suit today, I'm on at 8.0 looks a very fair price.

JPM agrees with me itll run a race - Keep The Faith

At this rate Footpad could start off 'fav' - it's 7.4 here and contracting.

5.4 here it comes

Now IG is being smashed into.

Do I lay off and secure it's victory, or do I let it run and secure it's defeat.

IG earlier but now it's Footpad again - let's hope they run accordingly.

Mar 18, 2016 -- 1:57PM, Angela Rebecchi wrote:

If Ivanovich Gorbatov hadn't run lto he'd be a sub 4.0 shot here. They thought he wasn't right and that the ground will suit today, I'm on at 8.0 looks a very fair price.

Oi Oi Limini and IG

Very well done IG backers!

Almost impossible to tell at this stage, but I suspect that was a good renewal of the Triumph, and the ones I'd hope would come to the fore did, and showed that the Irish juvenile form was far better than the British.

The front four all look like very good ones for next year.

Allblak Des Place didn't run, but he must be a good one too based on how the Leopardstown Juvenile Hurdle has worked out.

Lads i loved it when use all gave up on this beast, if you watch the win and the loss at Leopardstown its not the same horse at all, that day in February was filthy and it never showed its true running like what it did today with a good pace and on ideal ground, well done to use all that kept the faith and ill have a few listen backs to all the Podcasts including Mr Mullins who said it wouldnt beat the Ambulance home, to the Couch who said the Russians must of come over and backed it, NOT TOO FAR Ivanovich Gorbatov and as always lads Keep The Faith with a Good Thing !

I certainly never gave up! I backed him a few times over Xmas time and was disappointed in his run last time but the fact he was smashed back into fav again within a few days gave me more hope it was the ground/off day as we all have them! It stopped me backing him more right enough and made do with what I had on which won me a good few quid and a great start to today. And after a bad start with about 250 worth of antepost bets going down before we even started coming out with a profit was fantastic lol

Fair play and a good performance by IG. I couldn't have him after his last run.
I could understand ruby was doing on foot pad, replicating the ride he was given by danny mullins but up hill on that ground,  he had no chance of winning from that far back

I think it was a decent renewal - the winner will be a force to be reckoned with in open company, Apple's Jade was only running for the third time in her life and will surely be a challenger in the Mares races.

Would also throw in a positive mention for Clan Des Obeaux who got outpaced but was staying on again at the end and will surely be an excellent novice chasing prospect.

Leoncavallo ran really well too considering he had not run since December yet beat most of the fancy runners eg Sceau Royal, Zubayr and Let's Dance.

It's always been a shock to the system for the juveniles going forward to next year,at the moment they need to be near world beaters with regards to be potential CH contenders for next year.

Ivanovich Gorbatov = Keep The Faith ! Hashtag-backoftheambulance

Leoncavallo was the first English trained horse home which is sad in itself. This is a race that GB used to win most years but the first 4 were Irish this time. The winner looked quite small and stocky so he does not look like a horse that will progress much but never underestimate the O'Briens.