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@DO the article doesn't but Timeform has given him a higher figure for that performance than both CC and Vautour so they've taken the view DC would've won. I'm only saying he wasn't tired, he got up in matter of seconds and the fall wasn't because he was tired, it was because Cooper asked him for a big one and he wasn't yet at that stride so when Cooper inertia went down DC was right about the fence and forced him to make a mistake.
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They were all tired Tim. The sectionals suggest that, even though he was marginally quicker between the 3rd and 2nd last, they were all slowing down. My view is the additional effort that DC had to make to get back into contention would've cost him at the end of such a fast run race - which in fact it did, a fresher horse might've stayed on it's feet at the second last.
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*right above the fence
Just watched their next race and Cooper asked him for some big leaps in the back straight and he jumped those like a buck so I'm positive and hope that Cooper is finally in sync. |
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Am I right in saying that Brennan was quoted Don Cossack was getting to us and he thought DC was going to beat him? seem to remember something like that anyway.
I'm inclined to agree with him if he did say that. Cheltenham will be a different ball game though. I really like Cue Cards chances at his favourite course. Like others,and I imagine pretty much all of us if we are honest,i am really struggling to work this race out. One thing I will say....... RTR don't seem to be getting much of a mention, dont understand why to be honest. Forget about the possibility of the Ryanair...hes not the only possible NR. He is at the moment as far as any of us are concerned, a Gold Cup contender, and sounds to me like an underestimated one. Don't be surprised given decent ground hes the one....I wont be!! |
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I read the timeform article, and it does make me think again. An interesting read.
Did Don Cossack expend additional energy in that last furlong to get on terms, or did he have more to give. I couldn't say for certain, I don't expect anyone can. We are led to believe that Vautour has more weight to lose, and he will get those lengths back from jumping left. Conditions and the track will be more in his favour. Each to his own. |
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yes @budd Brennan said someething along those lines here: https://youtu.be/yl1crSLndNk?t=38
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just watched it again, cue card wasn't headed, but noted that Don Cossack was pushed a little wide turning in.
I would be disappointed if the race didn't involve those three horses at the end, who wins from that is all about opinions. |
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Vautour divides opinion imo mainly because some believe what they saw at Kempton and take it as that.
Others believe what his owner said and look at reasons why he got beat, and why he could have a good chance of winning the Gold Cup. Both are fine and one or the other could be proved right. My personal feeling is the first option,the way he ran all over the field two out and still got beat, but I do realise I may be wrong,and that all the reasons I have read may add up to a totally different finish from the horse in the Gold Cup. Anyway,ive at least made one decision in my mind,i wont be backing Vautour. Just Don Poli and Don Cossack to try and get to grips with now!! |
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I expect W Mullins was secretly delighted with the King George actually, having been very coy before it saying they would give it a go, but the ground and track not ideal and the horse was being trained to peak in March. Having got beat the pressure was taken off, saving 3 months of hysteria as we all waited for him to claim Gold.
I can just see a smug grin post race, as he lets us all in on the fact they would've been very disappointed had he got beat. I would prefer Colin Tizzard's rosy cheeks (now purple with excitement) as he sheds a tear for the horse in a million! |
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Budd, I don't think you can say to forget about the possibility of the Ryanair for RTR, that and the Gold Cup are very much on his radar, about 55/45 Gold Cup imo.
It comes down to who wins the battle between Meade and O'Leary, and it is O'Leary who wants him entered in the Ryanair. Just reading Lydia Hislop's piece before about Valseur Lido "Mullins also attempted to close it for Valseur Lido, whom he said "might go for the Gold Cup". But he wanted to run that horse in the RSA last year, only for owners Gigginstown Stud to over-rule him and choose the JLT." If O'Lery isn't scared to tell Mullins were to run one, he won't hesitate to tell Meade imo. A good run in the Irish Gold Cup on Sunday will see him shorten for both races, with a decision made the week before is the likely scenario. I know that isn't what some people want to hear, but unfortunately it is the reality. If he does win well on Sunday (given the opposition you'd hope he will), I can see him being around 7/1 NRNB for the Gold Cup and about 5/2 NRNB (or 5/1 antepost) for the Ryanair - just a guess. |
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Gigginstown would like to win their own race as much as possible so will field a creditable representative eg RTR, in the Ryanair especially so if Vautour (very unlikely) or VVM runs in it; if WPM asks to run Valseur Lido in the same race then two will represent Gigginstown.
I firmly believe there will not be three representatives for Gigginstown in the CGC with RTR being the fall 'guy', all being well with the two Dons. |
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Personally I cannot see a situation where rtr won't be in the cgc! He was 3rd last year on ground he is supposed to not be suited to! That fact alone will be enough for gigg to run there. OK, they want to win their own race I get that, but the cgc is the blue riband, the big one!! 3 in cgc, dc dp rtr with 2 maybe 3 in ryanair in my opinion is what we will have ground depending.
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Al ferof and valseur lido imo go off joint favs in ryanair
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Chief,
When I said forget about the Ryanair re RTR,I meant judge his chances of winning the Gold Cup as if he's a contender,which he is. Re RTR and the Ryanair,if Gigginstown are stupid enough to run him in that race when the forecast going on the Friday is at least good to soft,they must be bloody confident one of the other two is going to win!! And if it is decent ground I would think he would have more chance than DP. Hers my take........soft ground the two dons in the gold Cup, better ground all three go for Gold. |
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STS
Gigginstown know the pecking order of their three stars, and DC has been geared towards the CGC with DP (the unknown), hence DC has been campaigned accordingly eg KG, with the other two taking in the 'minor' but appropriate races; RTR has already shown twice he is no match for DC and Djakadam despite a sterling effort in the CGC last year. This season Gigginstown has been dictating which races RTR should take in, and also instructed RTR's trainer to enter RTR for the Ryanair, as such I'm more than hopeful RTR will run in the Ryanair however, a firm decision would only be made a week or so prior to race day in case something untoward happens to any of the two Dons; RTR is a worthwhile substitute for the Ryanair and will have the best chance of winning its owner's own race unless Vautour turns up I believe. |
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Sterling effort,that's one way of putting it I suppose.
Layed up pretty close to Coneygree while Djakadam held back slightly off the pace. Maybe paid the price with Djakadam collaring him on the run in,but on ground both the winner and the second would have much preferred to him,it was for me more than a sterling effort......put it this way on decent ground I am pretty sure RTR would have won. That would be something going in the Ryanair the following year!! Hopefully the owners think similar,I'm pretty sure his trainer does. |
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impossible I think you've summed it up in a nutshell, RTR is very much the third string and unless something happens to one of the Don's will more than likely go to the Ryanair. Remember Mouse Morris wanted to go for the GC with First Lieutenant but O'Leary made him go Ryanair which is his right as he's the man paying the bills.
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So what is wrong with running all three in the race?
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Nothing but if you think the other two will beat RTR then he may as well take his chance in the Ryanair.
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Yes I can see that,but I am sure they know how important the going is,and imo that will be the deciding factor on the running plans,and that would make perfect sense.
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They'll leave it late as possible surely?
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Yes mate,be stupid not to.
Like many other decisions to be made,late as possible. Fun second guessing ain't it!! |
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slower/impossible - do you think the pecking order is the same irrespective of going because i dont
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Kauto star the exception what is the record of returning horses that placed the year be?
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Can't choose between Vautour, Don Poli and Cue Card. Therefore i've called upon the trusty scientific method of "Who do I most want to cheer on?!" and backed Cue Card.
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B4
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Gigginstown (stud owner) is more savvy and knowledgeable about horse racing than RR (hobby/leisure) hence will do what is right for them and/or the horse taking into consideration the trainers' input, but the final decision will always be their's.
If I was Gigginstown, plus given the 'clear' evidence from the Punchestown Gold Cup (PGC) last year I'd not have more than two of my star horses running in any one race even the CGC, why? I'd like to try and win more than one race with them using with the clear evidence derived from the PGC as a guide. As such I'd only run two of them and saving the 3rd for my own race ie the Ryanair - RTR could not be a better candidate given its versatility between 20/24f. Next year there could be three (NMH) again depending on how DP performs in the CGC. |
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Ms no the ground is the reason they'll leave it late as possible RTR goes up the pecking order on better ground.
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Where do you think RTR would have finished in last years race had it been Good/soft?
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yep,that makes sense John.
Although we don't actually know the pecking order. Well I don't anyway. |
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I agree with Impossible, but don't get me wrong, RTR fully deserves to take his place in the Gold Cup lineup. I really like the horse; good attitude, good jumper and has got a good blend of speed and stamina. Good ground will see him at his best.
I agree Budd and think that if he'd be waited a bit more, he would have finished in front of Djakadam. I backed him at 40's back in September, but that was when I thought Valseur Lido would develop into a live Ryanair contender, which he hasn't really, so I fear theor hand may be forced. I think RTR is milers clear of the Ryanair field (if Vautour goes GC, which looks increasingly likely). I know that the Ryanair really splits opinion on here, but I personally haven't got an issue with it. Obviously, if you asked me would you rather have a Ryanair winner or a Gold Cup winner, it's a no brainer. But going into a race, I'd rather have a 6/4 Ryanair favourite than a 7/1 Gold Cup 5th or 6th favourite, especially when I already have two market leaders in my colours. Looking at this year's novices, they'll have a live chance in the Gold Cup next year as well in No More Heroes. However, looking at the JLT and Arkle, they appear to have nothing at all for next year's Ryanair. I know that's looking a bit far ahead, but RTR is probably the best chance they have ever had, with nothing in the pipeline for next year. |
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slower - 100% agree both points
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Closer budd
well Coneygree is a much better horse on a softer surface, so he may not have been as effective?I don't either but if I had to guess 1 DC 2 DP 3 RTR but 2 and 3 would swap on better ground. But like you say opinions and the thing is horses have off days which is another case for running all 3. |
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Re the ground; you could argue that all three Giggi ones, plus Vautour all want it Good.
Vautour definitely wants it good, Don Poli's best performances have been at the last two festivals which have been on good, Don Cossack's end of season wins were on good too. I would suggest of the market leaders only Cue Card and Djakadam would prefer it on the softer side. Cue Card very effective on good in his younger days, but I think he needs it a bit softer now. Therefore, if they think RTR is third string, I don't think the ground would alter though opinions. |
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So Chief,you think he would have finished in front of Djakadam,which brings him very close to winning the race against two horses that would have relished the going. So it's fair to say had it been better ground RTR would have won the race as Coneygree prefers soft.
In that case then, we could now be talking about the Gold Cup winner running in the Ryanair. I wonder what his owners think of last years race? Maybe they think it weren't much if they are thinking about putting him in the Ryanair.maybe they think DP and DC are a lot better than last years. |
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Chief don't disagree DP acts well on good ground but the stiffer test of stamina on soft would play to his strengths.
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Or put it another way the softer the ground is the more chance RTR will go the Ryanair route.
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How do we think DP would cope with the speedier types on decent ground?
He's hard to figure out I know,but I would think he might struggle a tad to keep as close as he needs to be for the finish? |
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If RTR won the Gold Cup last year, there would be zero chance of him going the Ryanair. If he was in any other racing silks (eg Andy Stewart for Paul Nicholls, Simon Munir for Henderson etc), he would 100% be in the Gold Cup.
I have absolutely no issue if RTR runs in the Gold Cup, I think he should. All I'm saying is, I think he won't. Because he wears those famous maroon silks, and they alreafdy have two for the Gold Cup who cannot be dropped in trip, they have to turn to the only one who can drop in trip. He has won over 2.5m this year, pretty easily beating the likes of Felix Yonger in the process. They can rely on Valseur Lido if they want to, but he has proved to be not up to the level required. |
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Hard one to work out Don Poli. I don't think he's anywhere near as slow as people make him out to be.
Pretty tough winning a festival handicap hurdle off 145 by 4.5 lengths, and that was over 2.5m on good. I think good ground will bring out a marked improvement in him, from his Lexus win. His first run of the season was a head scratcher. He was receiving weight from Many Clouds, but that was the Don's first race, when MC had already ran. The Don won by 4l despite Cooper's saddle slipping. Smad Place beat Many Clouds further last time, but he was also receiving weight, but he was race fit and had a clear round. I feel Don P has been judged a bit harshly. Reminds me of a chasing Barters Hill; a tough nut to crack. By the way, I really like Cue Card in this, with a small saver on Vautour!! |