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Cheltenham Festival

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wellchief
17 Mar 15 13:20
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Date Joined: 17 Dec 09
| Topic/replies: 3,423 | Blogger: wellchief's blog
Anyone going to own up?

I'll start: No More Heroes 14/1 RSA. I think he'll be a monster in staying chases. Question over good ground would be a worry but if he does handle it, he'll be hard to beat imo.

One rule, please don't use the word "mug" in this thread!LaughLaugh

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Replies: 122
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 17 Mar 15 13:33
not for 2016 but not far off ...........vautour @ 10 king George a little while  after his jlt romp
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 17 Mar 15 13:44
Fantastic bet that Foyles!

It genuinely saddens me, as I love antepost betting, but I cant find a single one I like. The odds are just becoming so poor. Would be interested in Djakadam for the GC, but 12-1?! Terrible price imo... and will almost certainly trade bigger if he disappoints at some point next season.

WPM seems to have a set method now... start them out in Autumn ready to go so he can see who is best horses are... let them down around Christmas time, then have them at their absolute peak for March.
By:
sintonian
When: 17 Mar 15 13:55
The only bet I placed this time last year was on Josses Hill for the Arkle but that got layed off after his chase debut. No inclination to back anything at the moment as everything looks ridiculously short.
By:
sintonian
When: 17 Mar 15 13:55
Vautour is now 4/1 for the KG. 10/1 looks very nice indeed.
By:
callitasucit
When: 17 Mar 15 14:07
Fine Article for the RSA and 4miler would be of interest, though the 4miler rarely priced up til much closer to the time, by which time he wont be such a dark one.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 17 Mar 15 14:47
didn't get a lot on at the 10Cry
By:
GI MAC
When: 17 Mar 15 18:43
I have had a bet for the 2016 festival, it's not normally something I do this far out, but I was gobsmacked at the price.

Uxizandre @ 14/1 for the Ryanair, a race he has just won in a course record time. He'll only be 8 next year so he can still improve. Bookies have Vatour as fav but he will surely be GC bound, Champagne Fever another ahead of him in the market was aimed at the QM this year! Price is outstanding if you ask me.
By:
sintonian
When: 17 Mar 15 18:46
Fair shout, beat Dodging Bullets on seasonal debut too?
By:
sintonian
When: 17 Mar 15 18:51
If THEY offered 12/1 + on Vautour to do the Tingle Creek/KG double i'd consider a few quid on that CrazyBlush
By:
trigger3
When: 17 Mar 15 19:29
IF Uxizandre goes back to the Ryanair I think that is outstanding value at 14/1. However there may be a temptation to go for the CC next year having won the Ryanair once. I think AP said after the race something along the lines of wishing they had have gone for the CC. He probably would have beaten DB on the Ryanair performance. It could well depend on what UDS does in the lead up to next years festival whether they decide to go Ryanair or CC.
By:
GI MAC
When: 17 Mar 15 19:56
AP said after the race, that during the race he was thinking they should have gone for the QM given how well Uxi was tanking along. Personally I'd be amazed if they dropped back in trip and took on UDS, who looks unbeatable right now. Who knows, long long way off.
By:
Harvester
When: 17 Mar 15 23:28
Uxi good bet... But I tend to agree with others that value is appalling Sad
By:
Rathgorman82
When: 18 Mar 15 18:38
Not the best value or most original, but one of them could be significantly shorter cometh 8th March..

Trixie - Douvan 4/1 Arkle, Faugheen 6/4 Ch Hdle, 6/4 Un De Sceaux Champ Chase.

And that's my lot until Nov/Dec time when the juices will slowly start flowing again Tongue Out
By:
deepingfox
When: 18 Mar 15 22:29
Thought after he powered up the hill to romp home in the hurdle race that DON POLI could be the next Denman. So I backed him at 25/1 for next years Gold Cup a month or so ago.

I was feeling chipper after his win on Wednesday, buy Coneygree, and Vautour have made the test harder now.

I recall having a similar bet on Sir Des Champs at 33s for the following years Gold Cup, just before he won the JLT.  That looked good after the JLT and for a fair while after, but blew out eventually.

Heres dreaming that its not double trouble, and I am on the winner this time.
By:
Orsoncart
When: 19 Mar 15 08:13
There you go placed about three minutes after the gold cup. Must admit I have it as a three horse race already with Don Poli and Vautour.


Placed    Description    Odds    Stake (£)    Pot. Return (£)    Status
13-Mar-15
15:29:56
Gold Cup 2016
Coneygree - Gold Cup 2016
Betfair Bet ID O/0005471/0000094
9.00
10.00
90.00
Open

What a festival though the quality was there for all to see, felt almost guilty picking up on Glens Melody.LaughLaugh

Windsor park 9/1  Dom Poli 14/1 and Vautour at 6/1 helped me relieve the bookies of £500 (to win any race with Hills) which put me back in front after several bets for the Arkle went down, In hindsight I think it was in the right race.

Looking forward to next year already.
By:
sageform
When: 19 Mar 15 09:06
My strategy until Xmas is to lay anything trading below 3.5 on here. This year quite a few won, but in many years the early favourites don't even run, never mind win. You can also trade out quite close to the day as I did with Peace and Co who was longer the day before the Triumph than he was at Xmas.
By:
buddeliea
When: 19 Mar 15 19:54
Just had a slice of 25 for Holywell in the gold cup.
Think he may well have won this year had ground been good.
By:
wellchief
When: 19 Mar 15 20:43
Was considering him too. Likely that he'll go the Aintree Bowl and if he does get his good ground and runs as well there as he did last year in the G1 novice chase, that 25's will be long gone imo
By:
joevalue147
When: 20 Mar 15 00:43
I was thinking Vautour might go for the Ryanair next year. Still young and Rich already has Djakadam for the big one. Win the Ryanair and then go for the gold cup the following year. Imperial Commander style. Vautour would only have one possible danger in Ryanair, (Don Cussack) in which Vatour would probably be odds on to win and certain to stay. In the gold cup there are at least 3 possible dangers (2 big ones in the shape of Don Poli and Coneyree). Not a guaranteed stayer either with his free enthusiastic running style. Rich Ricci and Willie will probably stay on the easy route with Anne Power to almost guarantee a festival winner and I think they will keep things simple with Vautour too.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 20 Mar 15 07:32
But Willie has already said its the GC mate. As stated on the thread, could only see him doing that if he disappoints when upped to 3m.
By:
buddeliea
When: 20 Mar 15 08:06
Joe,
You forgetting Uxizandre who was every bit as impressive as Vautour imo and against senior opposition.
Of course it's possible they may go back in trip and go for the QM,but should he run in the Ryanair he's a major threat to any horse if he repeats that performance.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 20 Mar 15 16:14
Agree Budd. Was a good run Uxizandre. I can't see why Don Cossack will be a danger after his never dangerous run last Thursday.

I think Uxizandre would have to improve 10lbs to trouble Vautour mind. Hopefully Vautour will run in the Gold Cup though.
By:
Tory
When: 22 Mar 15 15:13
More of That 10/1 World Hurdle. Cheltenham on a whole this year was great, but the world hurdle was very poor.

A fully fit MOT would have walked all over them and @ 10/1 he's worth a poke for next year.

May go chasing but......
By:
Howdi
When: 22 Mar 15 18:29
^^^ very likely to go chasing!!!
By:
Tory
When: 22 Mar 15 22:52
Have you heard that from anywhere?

Could be interesting - WH division looks for the taking but JP loves a Gold Cup horse. However, unless doing a Coneygree, he'd be 9 before be gets to that and would only then really have one crack at it.

Given all that's happened this year, if he were mine Id be tempted just to stick to hurdles and possibly win one or two more world hurdles
By:
Howdi
When: 23 Mar 15 00:01
yes ^^
By:
wondersobright
When: 23 Mar 15 14:52
10/1 non runner losing bet 12 months out about a horse beset with problems and probably going chasing...no thank you

I wouldn't take 10/1 about any horse for that race at this stage
By:
buddeliea
When: 23 Mar 15 17:56
Why is more of that more likely to win the WH next year than Cole Harden??
By:
deepingfox
When: 23 Mar 15 21:58
Had another dip, with a  Trixie for next March.

NO MORE HEROES (RSA) 12/1
UXIZANDRE (CHAMPION CHASE) 25/1
DON POLI (GOLD CUP) 6/1

Rationale as follows.

UXI goes particularly well at the course, and I can well see having won the Ryanair, him having a go at the Champion Chase, and I am hoping UDS scares off a lot of the field, giving a small entry and my bet more chance. Never be scared of one.

NMH is the apple of Gordon Elliott's eye, and he has had the RSA in mind in 2016 ever since he ran well in Bumpers.

Don Poli is as good as I have seen when faced with a gallop up the Cheltenham hill, I cant see anything going by him so they will have to be in front of him, turning in.
By:
bigpoppapump
When: 24 Mar 15 12:33
I have laid Faugheen at sub 2.6
By:
wellchief
When: 24 Mar 15 18:20
Requested hargam to be added on here, and then asked for 36.0. It was snapped up within 1 minute. Pretty ominous sign that he won't be in next years CH, especially with hardly any bookies pricing him up.
By:
wellchief
When: 26 Mar 15 17:50
Genuinely surprised at the price of Hargam. Backed at 36, 40 and 46 on here.

Doesn't strike me as a stayer and unless he goes chasing (which I cannot see) this must be the race for him

Unless I've missed something really obvious, I don't see why he is one of the rank outsiders of those priced up.
By:
Tucho
When: 26 Mar 15 20:59
don't see how it can be much shorter than that, he'd have to improve past peace and co for starters

the one bright spot i see is that the supreme winner is surely going chasing, (ricci won't want douvan taking on faugheen), and the neptune probably isn't providing a champion hurdle contender either so the triumph horses are the obvious potential candidates to step up

if jezki and the new one regress, then the race could be faugheen and arctic fire v the 5 year olds
By:
wellchief
When: 26 Mar 15 21:22
No doubt he has to improve past P&C, but it comes down to price for me. 30+ points bigger than him for a 4 length defeat on ground that went completely against him. I think he's all speed and needs good ground.

Hoping he runs at Aintree, and like Binocular for the same connections, when he lost at the festival but then ran a cracker at Aintree.
By:
buddeliea
When: 27 Mar 15 18:03
I've had some on Hargam as well Chief,think he is definitely overpriced. He ran a good race for a good ground horse,shows his class.
I presume this would be the aim,and if it is he could well be one of the Main opponents of Faugheen.
By:
wellchief
When: 28 Mar 15 09:39
Good work Budd. Yeah, I'm hoping he does go the CH and I can't see any other race for him to be honest.

With the exception of Arctic Fire, a lot of Faugheen's rivals were pretty exposed last year, so I'm hoping Peace & Co and Hargam can mix the Champion Hurdle up a little.  If he ever gets back up to the 40 mark again, I might have a little bit more - although it could all blow up in my face if he runs a stinker at Aintree!

Aside from him, my only other bets are No More Heroes for the RSA and Apache Stronghold at around 75.  I think I'll have a saver on him for the Ryanair though at 25's because I really rate him - fwiw I think he'll have a massive chance in the Ryanair, especially if Vautour goes the Gold Cup.

I might have a little bit on Holywell for the Gold Cup before Aintree, but I'll have a think about that first.  I said on a different thread that the Gold Cup is a nightmare antepost because of what the ground will be.

The other one that I like is Wait for Me.  I was really keen on him in the bumper, despite only ever having one run, and ran a very good race to finish third.  I think he'll have a big future over obstacles, and is 25's for the Supreme and 16's for the Neptune.  Gut feeling is that the Neptune would be his race, so he'll be one I'll look at backing around September - no point in doing that now as Hobbs has said he won't run again, so his price won't be changing any time soon.
By:
duffy
When: 30 Mar 15 00:22
Yanworth is the one I'll be taking out of the bumper, he travelled like a dream through the race and but for McCoy ( YES HIM) falling asleep before the turn in and allowing several to get the jump on him  I think he'd have nearly won, he stayed on well when McCoy awoke...he's 25's but I'm struggling to have a bet on him a year in advance although I think I should.
By:
buddeliea
When: 30 Mar 15 17:01
Agree Chief,I think Hobbs and Johnson thought they would win,and were a bit disappointed.
I'm keeping an eye on him.

I need to watch the race again Duffy as re yanworth,but thanks for pointing that out.
By:
duffy
When: 30 Mar 15 17:40
Just shows the value of the forum with regards to this sort of thing, I hadn't even noticed Wait For Me but seeing it again he travelled really well didn't he, agree gut feeling is Neptune.
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