Cheltenham Festival
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Inspired by this Cheltenham Forum and particularly JOCI's thread, I have been analysing the last 10 years winners of Festival races, firstly to see how my own Ante Post choices would fair compared with previous winners, based on the strongest stats for each race that I could find (age, days since run, winning form, winning trips etc etc), and applying a filter where more recent years trends get a little more points than 7, 8, 9, 10 years ago.
This means that if a winning trend changes, then its picked up quicker than a flat 10 years analysis.
I have compared findings with JOCI and a lot of the analysis top rated are similar, and some with different gaps in the scores.
Launching Day 1 Top Trend Scorers on this thread and then the following three days, all on Monday 9th March 2015, so anyone viewing can see who has the top PROFILE's compared with past winners.
Here's hoping the work is worth it and it throws some names into the equation that I can cheer home from the stands this week.
Wishing you a successful week.
This means that if a winning trend changes, then its picked up quicker than a flat 10 years analysis.
I have compared findings with JOCI and a lot of the analysis top rated are similar, and some with different gaps in the scores.
Launching Day 1 Top Trend Scorers on this thread and then the following three days, all on Monday 9th March 2015, so anyone viewing can see who has the top PROFILE's compared with past winners.
Here's hoping the work is worth it and it throws some names into the equation that I can cheer home from the stands this week.
Wishing you a successful week.
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SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE - RACE 1.
TOP RATED DOUVAN 100.00%
SECOND TOP TELL US MORE 92.00%
THIRD TOP NICHOLS CANYON 92.00%
FOURTH TOP LAMI SERGE 87.40%
BAR 84.30%
Dominated by Willie Mullins, and Douvan hits all 9 trends spot on, with Tell Us More an interesting selection if moving over from the Neptune.
TOP RATED DOUVAN 100.00%
SECOND TOP TELL US MORE 92.00%
THIRD TOP NICHOLS CANYON 92.00%
FOURTH TOP LAMI SERGE 87.40%
BAR 84.30%
Dominated by Willie Mullins, and Douvan hits all 9 trends spot on, with Tell Us More an interesting selection if moving over from the Neptune.
Arkle Trophy Chase - Race 2
TOP RATED JOSSES HILL 92.90%
SECOND TOP UN DE SCEAUX 90.40%
THIRD TOP VAUTOUR 83.30%
FOURTH TOP VIBRATO VALTAT 83.00%
BAR 71.10%
Interesting for those who want to take on the favourite, as an each-way play, that three others high in the betting are also high on the trend lists.
TOP RATED JOSSES HILL 92.90%
SECOND TOP UN DE SCEAUX 90.40%
THIRD TOP VAUTOUR 83.30%
FOURTH TOP VIBRATO VALTAT 83.00%
BAR 71.10%
Interesting for those who want to take on the favourite, as an each-way play, that three others high in the betting are also high on the trend lists.
ULTIMA BUSINESS SOLUTIONS HANDICAP CHASE - Race 3.
TOP RATED GEVREY CHAMBERTAIN 100.00%
TOP RATED CLONDAW WARRIOR 100.00%
THIRD TOP BUDDY BOLERO 91.20%
FOURTH TOP INDIAN CASTLE 91.20%
BAR 86.10%
Two hit all 8 winning trends for this race, both big prices, one trained by David Pipe (who loves a handicap winner here) and one by Lucinda Russell who has also had Festival success.
The Top 4 are a fair bit clear of the field, on trends.
TOP RATED GEVREY CHAMBERTAIN 100.00%
TOP RATED CLONDAW WARRIOR 100.00%
THIRD TOP BUDDY BOLERO 91.20%
FOURTH TOP INDIAN CASTLE 91.20%
BAR 86.10%
Two hit all 8 winning trends for this race, both big prices, one trained by David Pipe (who loves a handicap winner here) and one by Lucinda Russell who has also had Festival success.
The Top 4 are a fair bit clear of the field, on trends.
CHAMPION HURDLE Race 4
TOP RATED THE NEW ONE 95.00%
SECOND TOP JEZKI 91.10%
THIRD TOP ARTIC FIRE 78.60%
FOURTH TOP FAUGHEEN 78.30%
BAR 70.30%
Gutted when I did the profiles for this, as I am a big Faugheen follower, and want to see him win.
However, purely on profile he has had less than 10 Hurdle runs, doesn't have a high Topspeed rating, and hasn't ran in the calendar year, all which pull him back a little, on trends.
I am hoping this one doesn't work out, but in the spirit of the analysis, the ratings produce 2 of last years first 3 home at the top.
TOP RATED THE NEW ONE 95.00%
SECOND TOP JEZKI 91.10%
THIRD TOP ARTIC FIRE 78.60%
FOURTH TOP FAUGHEEN 78.30%
BAR 70.30%
Gutted when I did the profiles for this, as I am a big Faugheen follower, and want to see him win.
However, purely on profile he has had less than 10 Hurdle runs, doesn't have a high Topspeed rating, and hasn't ran in the calendar year, all which pull him back a little, on trends.
I am hoping this one doesn't work out, but in the spirit of the analysis, the ratings produce 2 of last years first 3 home at the top.
If you'd waited another hour and a half you could have done this after the 2-day decs
and 24-hr decs for the non-Championship races tomorrow
NATIONAL HUNT CHASE - RACE 5
TOP RATED SEGO SUCCESS 97.10%
TOP RATED BALLYCULLA 97.10%
TOP RATED DOING FINE 97.10%
FOURTH TOP COGRY 91.10%
RETURN SPRING, TOP TOTTI, THE JOB IS RIGHT< BROADWAY BUFFALO and THUNDER AND ROSES all 90.40%
Eight trends used for this profile, and a traffic jam at the top of the ratings.
In all cases, I would then watch videos and read form online, and come up with my own choice from the profile picks, if I wanted to have a bet in the race.
TOP RATED SEGO SUCCESS 97.10%
TOP RATED BALLYCULLA 97.10%
TOP RATED DOING FINE 97.10%
FOURTH TOP COGRY 91.10%
RETURN SPRING, TOP TOTTI, THE JOB IS RIGHT< BROADWAY BUFFALO and THUNDER AND ROSES all 90.40%
Eight trends used for this profile, and a traffic jam at the top of the ratings.
In all cases, I would then watch videos and read form online, and come up with my own choice from the profile picks, if I wanted to have a bet in the race.
RACE 6 I left the Profiles alone, as Quevega is the profile!
I could have looked at the 6 second places trends, but for now, I am not keen to force a trend out.
I could have looked at the 6 second places trends, but for now, I am not keen to force a trend out.
CHAPS Restaurants Barbados Novices Handicap Chase - RACE 7
TOP RATED HORIZONTAL SPEED 100.00%
SECOND TOP COCKTAILS AT DAWN 87.60%
THIRD TOP LEAP DEARG 85.00%
THIRD TOP GORSKY ISLAND 85.00%
THIRD TOP GENEROUS RANSOM 85.00%
BAR 84.50%
Top profile, HORIZONTAL SPEED has all 10 trends spot on, and is a Philip Hobbs handicap runner, with an improving profile, which is a good sign that the stats could be on the right track here, and he is 16/1, so I am nailing my colours to his mast and backing today.
TOP RATED HORIZONTAL SPEED 100.00%
SECOND TOP COCKTAILS AT DAWN 87.60%
THIRD TOP LEAP DEARG 85.00%
THIRD TOP GORSKY ISLAND 85.00%
THIRD TOP GENEROUS RANSOM 85.00%
BAR 84.50%
Top profile, HORIZONTAL SPEED has all 10 trends spot on, and is a Philip Hobbs handicap runner, with an improving profile, which is a good sign that the stats could be on the right track here, and he is 16/1, so I am nailing my colours to his mast and backing today.
Good stuff, so we're broadly in agreement on Gevrey Chambertain, Ballyculla and Horizontal Speed.
We differ significantly on Douvan's chances.
We differ significantly on Douvan's chances.
Yes JOCI, I suppose we may use slightly different stats on certain races, and when I profile them, I give credit to the lesser stat too.
IE:
10/10 6 year old winners = 100% stat profile
and
8/10 7 year old winner = 80% stat profile score
2/10 6 year old winner = 20% stat profile score
so in this case 7 year olds have a 60% better stat than 7 year olds, rather than a flat assessment of 8/10 (80% score) and none for the rest.
So the scores close up, or spread out c/w your work.
Hopefully when our results come together then the chances strengthen.
Always pleased to see the profiles backed up by a horse being trained by someone with a good festival record, and with good visuals on watching back video form.
IE:
10/10 6 year old winners = 100% stat profile
and
8/10 7 year old winner = 80% stat profile score
2/10 6 year old winner = 20% stat profile score
so in this case 7 year olds have a 60% better stat than 7 year olds, rather than a flat assessment of 8/10 (80% score) and none for the rest.
So the scores close up, or spread out c/w your work.
Hopefully when our results come together then the chances strengthen.
Always pleased to see the profiles backed up by a horse being trained by someone with a good festival record, and with good visuals on watching back video form.
FINAL DECS UPDATE FOR DAY 1
RACE 1 SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE
TOP RATED DOUVAN 100.00%
SECOND TOP TELL US MORE 92.00%
THIRD TOP LAMI SERGE 87.40%
FOURTH TOP BENTELIMAR 84.90%
BAR 84.30%
RACE 2 ARKLE TROPHY CHASE
TOP RATED JOSSES HILL 92.90%
SECOND TOP UN DE SCEAUX 90.40%
THIRD TOP VIBRATO VALTAT 83.00%
FOURTH TOP THREE KINGDOMS 71.10%
BAR 66.00%
RACE 3 ULTIMA BUSINESS SOLUTIONS CHASE
TOP RATED GEVREY CHAMBERTAIN 100.00%
SECOND TOP INDIAN CASTLE 91.20%
THIRD TOP AZURE FLY 89.30%
FOURTH TOP NED STARK 86.10%
BAR 85.20%
RACE 4 CHAMPION HURDLE
TOP RATED THE NEW ONE 95.00%
SECOND TOP JEZKI 91.10%
THIRD TOP ARTIC FIRE 78.60%
FOURTH TOP FAUGHEEN 78.30%
BAR 70.30%
RACE 5 - NO PROFILES
RACE 6 NATIONAL HUNT CHASE
TOP RATED SEGO SUCCESS 97.10%
TOP RATED BALLYCULLA 97.10%
TOP RATED DOING FINE 97.10%
FOURTH TOP COGRY 91.10%
BAR 90.40%
RACE 7 CHAPS RESTAURANTS BARBADOS NOVICE HCAP CHASE
TOP RATED HORIZONTAL SPEED 100.00%
SECOND TOP COCKTAILS AT DAWN 87.60%
THIRD TOP GENEROUS RANSOM 85.00%
FOURTH TOP THOMAS CRAPPER. 84.50%
FIFTH TOP LITTLE JOHN 83.70%
BAR 83.00%
In the handicaps I like Gevrey Chambertain and Horizontal Speed, coming from top stables with success in Festival Handicaps.
Good luck
RACE 1 SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE
TOP RATED DOUVAN 100.00%
SECOND TOP TELL US MORE 92.00%
THIRD TOP LAMI SERGE 87.40%
FOURTH TOP BENTELIMAR 84.90%
BAR 84.30%
RACE 2 ARKLE TROPHY CHASE
TOP RATED JOSSES HILL 92.90%
SECOND TOP UN DE SCEAUX 90.40%
THIRD TOP VIBRATO VALTAT 83.00%
FOURTH TOP THREE KINGDOMS 71.10%
BAR 66.00%
RACE 3 ULTIMA BUSINESS SOLUTIONS CHASE
TOP RATED GEVREY CHAMBERTAIN 100.00%
SECOND TOP INDIAN CASTLE 91.20%
THIRD TOP AZURE FLY 89.30%
FOURTH TOP NED STARK 86.10%
BAR 85.20%
RACE 4 CHAMPION HURDLE
TOP RATED THE NEW ONE 95.00%
SECOND TOP JEZKI 91.10%
THIRD TOP ARTIC FIRE 78.60%
FOURTH TOP FAUGHEEN 78.30%
BAR 70.30%
RACE 5 - NO PROFILES
RACE 6 NATIONAL HUNT CHASE
TOP RATED SEGO SUCCESS 97.10%
TOP RATED BALLYCULLA 97.10%
TOP RATED DOING FINE 97.10%
FOURTH TOP COGRY 91.10%
BAR 90.40%
RACE 7 CHAPS RESTAURANTS BARBADOS NOVICE HCAP CHASE
TOP RATED HORIZONTAL SPEED 100.00%
SECOND TOP COCKTAILS AT DAWN 87.60%
THIRD TOP GENEROUS RANSOM 85.00%
FOURTH TOP THOMAS CRAPPER. 84.50%
FIFTH TOP LITTLE JOHN 83.70%
BAR 83.00%
In the handicaps I like Gevrey Chambertain and Horizontal Speed, coming from top stables with success in Festival Handicaps.
Good luck
Well done fox. More info available the better in terms of trying to find and angle. Both you and JOCI are very generous in sharing your analysise with us.
Labour of Love I reckon, Fanatic.
Would much rather share it beforehand, and risk egg on face if nothing wins, than not share the info and try and "aftertime" on here afterwards, and get hammered for keeping it to myself.
Also what fun it would be if we can share a forum discussion at the end of a day, based on mutual success, after a couple of winners.
Day 1 has a lot of short-priced favs, so maybe expecting better things Day 2 onwards.
Would much rather share it beforehand, and risk egg on face if nothing wins, than not share the info and try and "aftertime" on here afterwards, and get hammered for keeping it to myself.
Also what fun it would be if we can share a forum discussion at the end of a day, based on mutual success, after a couple of winners.
Day 1 has a lot of short-priced favs, so maybe expecting better things Day 2 onwards.
Great work Deeping, very interesting to compare yours and Joci's selections. Good luck.
Great stuff although one big stat against Gevrey is 19/22 winners had run in the last 45 days. I like Barrakilla but again this one falls foul of the above stat.
Yeah but Pipes can get one ready and defy these kind of stats - so if anything is going to bust that trend, GC looks the one
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