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duffy
06 Mar 15 16:00
Joined:
Date Joined: 28 Mar 03
| Topic/replies: 25,553 | Blogger: duffy's blog
I know I know....but.....he's just too big of a price at 33/s, I'm sure he'll be supported on the day, he's priced up on his poor form through the winter but even after a poor run into last years festival he ran a really good race on the day, just watching it again now and concentrating on him rather than all the fanfare for the front two it's better than many would have remembered.

He travelled pretty much as good as anything through the race and led at the last before AP and MOT went past but he beat the rest well enough and in this years race there is nothing IMO better than those two, they'd be comfortably 1st and 2nd favs if they were in this year.

He's priced up on all his admittedly poor form through the past two winters but at Cheltenham he hasn't been out of the frame in 6 runs, yes you have to forgive him his winter form but he's shown that he can bounce back to run well in the big one before and with a possible change of head gear in the offing which may help as well he's way over-priced relative to the opposition as a 33/1 e/w bet.
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Report Mr Eboue March 6, 2015 4:02 PM GMT
Cant jump.

Hasn't ran well in over 18 months.

Doesn't finish his races.

Beaten fair and square in the race last year.

Gone at the game.



Not one for me.
Report ACStafford March 6, 2015 4:04 PM GMT
I had a bit of 25s before his last race when I figured he was nailed on at the weights. Plain
As bad as that was, I'd have to agree that 33/1 does seem a bit big.
Report ACStafford March 6, 2015 4:05 PM GMT
Hasn't ran well in over 18 months.

He ran well at Cheltenham and Aintree last year. Though I'd agree he's been shocking this season.
Report duffy March 6, 2015 4:49 PM GMT
Agreed AC

he ran well in the race last year, and did so on the back of a poor season, so my point is that he's proved that poor early season form can be overcome....a similar run in the race to last year's and 7/1 to place is more than fair.
Report marychain1 March 6, 2015 5:05 PM GMT
He's on my list for the World Hurdle.
Report FOYLESWAR March 6, 2015 5:45 PM GMT
an attractive price if you ignore this seasons form and could well place at least
Report Howdi March 6, 2015 5:46 PM GMT
on his last run, you couldnt have him christ.
Report TheCollector March 7, 2015 12:11 AM GMT
11123 is his Cheltenham record

3rd in this last year behind More of That & Annie Power.They don't run this year

Will def stay the trip

Will have first time blinkers on.

Seen a lot worse 33/1 shots
Report FOYLESWAR March 7, 2015 9:22 AM GMT
one of the great things about the forums is the fact that every now and again someone will come up with something that was not apparent at first glance and I think duffy  could well be onto something here , it is generally assumed after this seasons runs that at fishers cross is a bigger dog than rin tin tin but his Cheltenham form is a different story,course  form figures of 11123 is not too shabby plus this seasons form  especially   in the green and gold coulours can be readily ignored for obvious reasons ,what could be very significant is the fitting of the headgear which could be the key to this horse and looking back at the stats horses fitted with aids first time have a decent record  ,the latent ability is there and has decent form in the book stays the trip has festival form  and in a very open race ,,a big run could be in the offing, 33s nrnb looks decent value if you can ignore this seasons form ,well spotted duffy and good luck, I am on  .
Report opatcho March 7, 2015 10:14 AM GMT
I just think this horse has lost interest or is still suffering when racing

Going on last years performance, yes the price looks tempting... but he has been shocking this season and it would have to be a dire renewal for him to feature
Report FOYLESWAR March 7, 2015 10:23 AM GMT
he may have been dire this season but like this owners handicap plot horses  previous form is not always relevant to what will produced on the big  day and at the prices worth the chance imo
Report FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK March 7, 2015 10:42 AM GMT
Good luck to faithful on this horse ,
Drove me crazy
I took the risk 50s SIDS offered few weeks ago !
Let's hope it spring Cheltenham form holds up
Over the cliff with him like many !
Report FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK March 7, 2015 10:43 AM GMT
The race is dire !!!
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 7, 2015 11:12 AM GMT
The race is dire, i wish they would just front run him, he clearly doesnt jump or have a turn of foot. AP keeps riding him like he is top class which is shocking by AP standards.
Report bonnie March 7, 2015 11:19 AM GMT
zarkandar will win the world hurdle imo, nf will keep hold of him until jumping the last as he dosses once in front
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 7, 2015 11:26 AM GMT
and find jack sh1t off the bridle Wink
Report FOYLESWAR March 7, 2015 11:28 AM GMT
have just watched last seasons world hurdle again (several times )and afc jumped and travelled so much better than usual , led before the last and run out of it by 2 very good horses who wont be in this years field . like this horse most of the field have questions to answer but a lot are at shorter prices than this fella .
Report bonnie March 7, 2015 11:43 AM GMT
i've just watched last years race also and fishers cross could definitely be described as over priced !!!!!

i'm very happy with my position on zarkandar tho
Report sc1883 March 7, 2015 12:49 PM GMT
After his last run im astounded its even running at Cheltenham let alone people backing it! Looks to have fallen out of love with the game
Report twonky March 7, 2015 12:53 PM GMT
I'm on ew at 40s.

I'd totally ignore his last run at Haydock, ground was atrocious and anything held up struggled that day, see The New One. Stable was also out of form, Teaforthree ran a poor race aswell on the same card. Trainer had a winner last week.
Report FOYLESWAR March 7, 2015 1:41 PM GMT
it should not be forgotten that at fishers beat a certain the new one (current 2nd fav for the chsmp hurdle ) in the Neptune a few years back
Report buddeliea March 7, 2015 2:31 PM GMT
Bit mistaken there my friend,AFC won the Albert Bartlett,TNO won the Neptune mate.
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 7, 2015 2:32 PM GMT
won a trial with coneygree in 3rd.
Report Howdi March 7, 2015 2:36 PM GMT
rock on ruby out
Report buddeliea March 7, 2015 2:37 PM GMT
Bit slow Howdi,had a lie in mate?
Report HaylingBilly March 7, 2015 2:44 PM GMT
FOYLES being a bit cunning there !!! GrinGrinGrin
Report FOYLESWAR March 7, 2015 2:56 PM GMT
you must excuse me ! all this chasing and arresting  khoonts  in the  hastings area can play tricks on an old detectives mind !
Report FOYLESWAR March 7, 2015 2:59 PM GMT
fair form .... the new one ,coneygree ,and whisper behind
Report FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK March 7, 2015 3:31 PM GMT
Àll 33/1 be gone soon
Can see this starting about 12/1 on the day !
Report jasey March 7, 2015 7:25 PM GMT
I have seen this before.Lots struggled to let Grans Crus go.
Report gutfeeling March 7, 2015 8:11 PM GMT
Back legs are wrecked with arthritus. If he was sound physically he'd have been one of the greats staying hurdlers, Shame but that's how it goes. Won't win as can't go through with a effort anymore as it's too painful.
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 7, 2015 9:01 PM GMT
Certainly wont be carrying my money and i backed him throughout his novice season and thought he was the 2nd coming until out of novice division when in hindsight he had run in a poor novice season.
Report Roger The Butler March 7, 2015 11:16 PM GMT
A bigger price than the lesser spotted Pont Alexandre. When did anyone last see this mythical creature?
Report Breedingmad March 8, 2015 12:22 AM GMT
Fishers Cross is a no no IMO.
Report jimmy777 March 8, 2015 8:25 AM GMT
Are people on drugs, At Fishers Cross?????? I can jump a hurdle more fluently than AFC. Frustrating because it had so much promise
Report FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK March 8, 2015 8:59 AM GMT
Horses for courses !!! Maybe drugs !

Wouldn't like to see anythink else pulled out at front end of the market
There reroute the mare !
Report Roger The Butler March 8, 2015 10:50 PM GMT
Since he lost his confidence in his first run of last season, he hasn't been able to jump and is very ponderous and unnatural at his hurdles in small field, slow run races at other courses. In a bigger field at a championship pace at his favourite course he will have less time to think and therefore will be better than he has shown all season, like last year when he posted his best run in the World Hurdle.

Suspect he may be gone but he is priced up on being rubbish at Haydock, etc, not on what he can do in a fast run race at Cheltenham. He isn't an 8/1 shot but 33s about an AP ridden horse where the combination got placed last year isn't disgraceful. There are worse bets in the race at shorter prices.
Report TheCollector March 8, 2015 11:01 PM GMT
Could be a different proposition with first time blinkers also
Report gpz6316 March 9, 2015 12:20 AM GMT
if you yourself have lost your confidence for whatever reason . you look at others around you as being giants yourself small  and you never get that original fluidity back . you run with neverousness and are apprehensive  until the point you are pushed and then you just wing at em hail mary . afc will end up a dead horse .if pushed . i never saw a horse truly get a confidence back . just like human beings if your nerves are shot they are shot . and if my nerves are shot and im being asked to go over the top im gonna do it . my heart will be racing my head will be full of dread and  adrenalin coursing through my veins . how in the hell can i win given all that. when a less exposed horse has not experienced such trauma and has all the advantages of cardio vasc , youth , naivety etc  . its a given that this horses best days are in the past . just think about it from his point of view .
Report marychain1 March 9, 2015 12:24 AM GMT
christ I hope you haven't got access to any dangerous weapons
Report needbinoculars March 9, 2015 12:27 AM GMT
Not for me,he looks a goner. At least showed something prior to race ly. Agree race is rubbish so looked for a poss big improver and the one I like ran in the haddock race. Seeyouatmidnight. Not fit,improved massively from1st to 2nd run ly.sky could be the limit . 40/1 rather than 33/1 afs. Has sandy Thompson had a festival runner .? Let alone winner?
Report gpz6316 March 9, 2015 12:29 AM GMT
lol bedtime now but wanted to have a look at thoughts of cheltenham and like so many racing fans afc is a enigma and i just looked at it from what i considered to be the horses point of view as he cant speak ! ......  best of luck
Report duffy March 9, 2015 4:47 AM GMT
gpz6316
     09 Mar 15 00:20

if you yourself have lost your confidence for whatever reason . you look at others around you as being giants yourself small  and you never get that original fluidity back . you run with neverousness and are apprehensive  until the point you are pushed and then you just wing at em hail mary . afc will end up a dead horse .if pushed . i never saw a horse truly get a confidence back . just like human beings if your nerves are shot they are shot . and if my nerves are shot and im being asked to go over the top im gonna do it . my heart will be racing my head will be full of dread and  adrenalin coursing through my veins . how in the hell can i win given all that. when a less exposed horse has not experienced such trauma and has all the advantages of cardio vasc , youth , naivety etc  . its a given that this horses best days are in the past . just think about it from his point of view . 


Fook me, if AFC is feeling this bad I dread to think how bad Josses Hill is sleeping at night.Grin
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