Cheltenham Festival
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Forget the rush to fill column inches and write off Sprinter Sacre based on his good run lto. He got tired having been off the track for a long time, he was keen early and went wide around a few bends and it was soft ground. He was beaten by a fit and improving rival who is trained by a master who had him in A1 form.
Sprinter Sacre is not the horse of old. But he doesn't need to be to win a bog average Champion Chase. Sprinter's run at Ascot lto was only 3lb below all his rivals best RPR. Sprinter only needs to improve the expected amount for that run to win the Champion Chase.
Forget the Big Bucks comparisons, he isn't 11yo and wasn't beaten by a 148 rated horse. He was beaten by the race fit 171 rated Tingle Creek winner. Sire De Grugy ran a poor race and was beaten when unseating on his first run of the season but looked much improved in how he ran when next seen.
Finally we ave the real comparison. Denman, who had a more serious heart problem which required medication to fix, unlike Sprinter. Denman came back as was thumped 19l on his first run back, then ran a huge race to improve massively and come 2nd in the Gold Cup. He ran a career equaling 182 when winning his 2nd Hennessy later that year.
Sprinter Sacre only needs to improve a few lbs to win. He has to find just a little bit of the 20lbs he used to have. He'll probably bet 4/1 on the Wednesday morning when he will be a big target for the bookies. My advice, join me in having a big cut at it. Stick in a stake lay around the 2.2 mark as insurance and enjoy the race.
He'll run a 177 and win
Sprinter Sacre is not the horse of old. But he doesn't need to be to win a bog average Champion Chase. Sprinter's run at Ascot lto was only 3lb below all his rivals best RPR. Sprinter only needs to improve the expected amount for that run to win the Champion Chase.
Forget the Big Bucks comparisons, he isn't 11yo and wasn't beaten by a 148 rated horse. He was beaten by the race fit 171 rated Tingle Creek winner. Sire De Grugy ran a poor race and was beaten when unseating on his first run of the season but looked much improved in how he ran when next seen.
Finally we ave the real comparison. Denman, who had a more serious heart problem which required medication to fix, unlike Sprinter. Denman came back as was thumped 19l on his first run back, then ran a huge race to improve massively and come 2nd in the Gold Cup. He ran a career equaling 182 when winning his 2nd Hennessy later that year.
Sprinter Sacre only needs to improve a few lbs to win. He has to find just a little bit of the 20lbs he used to have. He'll probably bet 4/1 on the Wednesday morning when he will be a big target for the bookies. My advice, join me in having a big cut at it. Stick in a stake lay around the 2.2 mark as insurance and enjoy the race.
He'll run a 177 and win
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Just seen ure tweet. Your bang on, fingers crossed!!
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On good ground at 4-1 I'll happily take a chance but I think it's important to also acknowledge the negatives. He isn't a horse who takes a lot of getting fit and he whilst he may improve for that run I don't think it is by that much. He's a different animal to Denman who took plenty of getting fit. I think you also have to acknowledge that the distance he was beaten isn't the end of that matter. Dodging Bullets was on top and could have found more if needed. You also have to factor in that comment about Dodging Bullets improving. Who's to say he won't find more improvement?
That said I do question whether Dodging Bullets and Champagne Fever will have the basic speed over 2 miles on good ground. Sire De Grugy sets a good but not unbeatable standard and Mr Mole has't had the gun put to his head and could be a bit of a monkey at the top level. Which takes us back to my first comment. 4-1 and good ground and the betting boots are on. |
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It's not just fitness remember, it's freshness and rustiness and match practice. Horses improve for runs. Also Sprinter had never raced at Ascot over fences. I'd expect Sprinter to reverse the form with Dodging Bullets tbh. While of 4/1 in the morning, which I'd expect him to be, that's pricing him at a 20% chance of winning. It's a bog average bunch of high 160 aand 170 rated horses. I think he'll improve enough to win, he does have good form over c&d after all.
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Chaps I've recently joined twitter.
Put your twitter names up and I'll start following. |
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Denman won 2 Hennessys fto, hard to argue he was harder to get fit tbh. But the point I was making was to those who say "they never come back" that is bar Denman the only other high profile horse to have a similar condition.
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@cvbyrne
Twitter is ace for Racing info btw. I only follow racing related stuff on there. Can't be cluttering up my twitter feed with other stuff. |
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following
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following
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Likewise.
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Your Arkle bets look very good mate.
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@lelulovexo
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@pbaines86
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Nice bets!
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ffs fools
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You got a fan here too cvbyrne, but i need to get a handle on this twitter thing although ive been on it for years i rarely on it. I dont even know where to find my @ name lol
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Cheers, AP bets are good this year. But remember I've got lost antepost money to recover to start with.
btw I've added Theatre Guide £20 @ 25/1 for the Ultima Solutions on Day 1 also. |
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Mr Eboue, that is one bad ass photo on yer twitter page!
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Mine, just seen it haha, @richardsloway but im never on there and rarely send tweets.
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@smokeytimrobbo
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There is no way he will be 4/1 on the day if it is good ground. I have now doubt he will reverse the form with Dodging Bulletts, but Mr Mile is 5 lengths ahead of DB.
Given watering and good to soft ground I think there is not going to be much between SDG and SS. I will wait and see them on the day and make a decision. |
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He's not the best this season thus far,and it's this season that counts. Nor was he last season.
Of course he can prove he's the best still,but I won't be parting with money to find out. |
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He is not
the best this season and wasn't last as the above says Has had 2 races in 2 years Beat in both Has had heart problems Bled after last race He was a magnificent horse.One of the best of all time But.... I can find better 3/1 shots every day of the week |
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Compare SS run with the first runs of Dodging Bullets and Sire De Grugy this season.
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Good lively debate, what the forum is about.
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The biggest conundrum of the Festival for me. 3/1 could look the bet of a lifetime or the worst value of the week.
Like most others, I would love to see him back to his imperious best, but strictly as a betting proposition, I think he is terrible value. You could analyse this race for hours, but ultimately all of us are just guessing. Nobody can know if the horse has recovered so for that reason, it's not really a betting race for me. My gut feeling is he won't win, and would would want a much bigger price to risk him tbh. I've had a bet on SdG just because I think there are less question marks over him, and if SS isn't right, he is by far the likeliest winner. |
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How many horses have won a Champion Chase having ran only twice in 2 years and not won for 2 years? Also coming into the race off 1 run in the current season?
It would be a hell of a performance to win this. |
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where can I find your blog CV. Like your anaylsis!
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@ Collector.
Martha's Son. |
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I suppose what I'm betting on is that if Sprinter Sacre finds at least 7 or 8lbs improvement from his Ascot run he's a 1/2 shot. That means if he's 4/1 the morning of the race you're betting that he has a 30% Chance of finding that improvement. I feel he has a better chance than that given what we know.
He isn't the old Sprinter and I think we all know that but people are blurring that with him not being the best horse. These are a 170 bunch of Chasers. While Sprinter has the best course form too. Yes he may empty when coming to the last. We can't be sure the fire still burns. But at the odds and given the opponents. It's worth betting he has enough to win. |
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@kittywells
Jumpsadviser.com |
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Every reason to believe SdG can run at least in the mid 170's imo.
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The following statement should be taken a with a pinch of salt and a good dollop of hope.
"He'll run a 177 and win "SS will be ridden with kid gloves. Who wants to back a horse that, at the first sign of even a slight problem, will be pulled up? The CC is a no bet race as literally any of them could win on the day. Will be roaring home SS though. GL |
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my first thoughts during the tingle creek as sprinter sacre cruised up to dodging bullets were that sprinter is back to his best ,but his failure to go past the nicholls horse has had me thinking and could it be that he simply needed the race and blew up and will improve 10lb next time ? or could it be that when push came to shove he was hitting the "wall" so to speak ,that point where in his pomp he was able to travel and cruise past top class horses effortlessly that is the 40,000 dollar question , now he may still be able to cruise through the race and may well pish up in the champion chase ,but untill i see for myself that he can still do it at top level i would not be a backer , can he still do it in the the buisness end of a race and will he be able to go through with the effort to actually put a championship race to bed ?. I hope he can come back but have my doubts .I would be leaning to place lay sprinter .
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Laddies Money Back if SS finishes 1st or 2nd in the CC.
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I backed him before his first run this season and although he got beat I thought he would shorten in the betting. I got home from Haydock (that's where I was not SS) and couldn't believe he'd drifted so had some more on. I've topped up since and will again as well as take Ladbrokes offer. He's my biggest bet of the festival in terms of layout, so hope I'm right as well as CV.
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Not on twitter gents or anywhere else as far as giving my thoughts but I'm happy to share them. I have to take issue with the assertion that he becomes a 1-2 chance if he improves for Ascot CV. I think he has to improve by that sort of amount to be confident just about getting level with Dodging Bullets based on their respective running then. I think there's every chance of that. My thought is that a 7lbs improvement in his ability would likely see him a few clear of Dodging Bullets on the day because I don't think that DB will be as suited by conditions at Cheltenham. Good ground and a furlong less will appeal to SS basic speed and will slightly impeded DB's ability to put up a similar performance.
So I find myself in the curious position of arguing against your logic but agreeing with your overall point. Of course then we have to assess where it puts him in relation to SDG? |
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On soft ground I rate SDG very highly and clear 2nd best to the old Sprinter and probably very nearly level with the current Sprinter. However, I can't see how he will keep up with him on Cheltenham G/S or Good. He beat trees last year.
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I'll be place laying this horse all day long, similar to Istabraq, Kauto Star and Big Bucks when seeking one last day in the sunshine I think he will either win or blow up completely. I can't imagine Geraghty being too hard on the horse should it become obvious that he can't win and I'm in the camp who doesn't think he will have the pail tolerance to want to climb that unforgiving hill given his history of bleeding and wind problems. Lay of the festival for me.
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