Before you place a bet on the champion hurdle race think about this.

You are right to point out that hurdling ability is a key asset in the Champion Hurdle but it is also possible that the gulf in ability between the 3 horses he mentions and the rest (apart from perhaps Hurricane Fly who can jump) could allow them to make a couple of mistakes each and still fill the first 3 places.

Hi sageform.That is a very good point,but because of  the pace,one mistake can see a horse lose 3 to 4 lengths.As you say apart from hurricane there is not much else that we can back but many a race can throw up an outsider that is not expected to win.perhaps it is a race to lay instead of backing.

What's your point? You seem to be inferring that none of the three can win it. In that case lay all three. I'd be amazed if the winner came from outside of these three unless the rain comes down for the fly. Rest aren't good enough.

It's hardly a classic looking Champion Hurdle at this stage is it? A veteran that surely can't be good enough against a defending champion people don't rate, a nearly horse that isn't a great hurdler and a hype horse that's beat nothing.

bit hardh

harsh

if you lay all three,you still have the fly on your side,and at current prices a guy is not going too lose much if one of the three happens to jump well and win.remember Annie is still entered,and arctic fire is not without a chance.so my guess is that there is a case for laying rather than steam in on one of the big three.

Mar 4, 2015 -- 1:08PM, brassneck wrote:

if you lay all three,you still have the fly on your side,and at current prices a guy is not going too lose much if one of the three happens to jump well and win.remember Annie is still entered,and arctic fire is not without a chance.so my guess is that there is a case for laying rather than steam in on one of the big three.

Annie Power? No chance that she runs. Arctic Fire not at the class of a CH winner. If he is run to be placed he might well stay on for a minor placing but not good enough to win imo.

And remember is Annie is a non runner Ruby will have to make a decision on what horse he will ride.

Now down to 8 runners so there goes the Annie Power theory.

Mar 4, 2015 -- 1:11PM, brassneck wrote:

And remember is Annie is a non runner Ruby will have to make a decision on what horse he will ride.

A quck check with the met office should confirm that decision for him now.

trigger,dont get daft,you either know about horse racing or you don't,but to dismiss Annie power goes a long way to answering my question to the readers on facebook and this forum.

Im not with you, whats the question? What bearing will Annie Power have on the CH hurdle when she won't run in it.

that's enough,Annie can run in any ground.you just shot yourself in the head.can not see how you are on a racing forum.
there's one born every minute.

I presumed you meant the decision was between the fly and Faugheen. Annie Power doesn't even enter the equation. Are you on the wind up?

I must tell Willie,trigger of the betfair forum says that the greatest hurdler in the world over 2miles 2 furlongs,is not running.feck me you should read your own posts.

Your either drunk or deluded.

Ruby has already said (and its on record)if Annie runs in the CH he will be in the saddle.

Well she won't and he won't.

Willie on the tv now,he says only one in four favs wins at Cheltenham.

it does not matter what race Annie power runs in,she will win,and Willie knows this.

If its the mares then its not rocket science to predict that she will win it but she won't be in the champion hurdle and never was likely to be.

Hahahahahaha


You lot just made me take a 2nd look at the entries, no Annie Power I repeat NO ANNIE POWER


Also, take a look at the last 10 winners, all odds of between 5-10/1! In fact this race often throws up the odd slight surprise!

2014 9/1
2013 13/8F
2012 11/1
2011 11/4F
2010 9/1
2009 22/1
2008 10/1
2007 16/1
2006 7/4
2005 7/2JF
2004 33/1

In most of the above years there was a hottie that could not possibly get beat! Every one had a idea that the winner was going to be, and 99% of them were from the front 3 in the betting. Am no stats man and i am certainly not saying this years winner will be anything like 10-20/1 but just looking at previous winners and the nature of this race right off Arctic Fire/Kitten Rock/Vaniteux/Bertimont at your peril

Brass Necks theory didn't last long then, egg on his face with his Annie Power champion hurdle theory. He had himself convinced.

Can you really see any of Arctic Fire, Kitten Rock, Vaniteux or Bertimont being crowned the champion hurdler? I can see one of them running into a place (probably Arctic Fire) since they may well be run to achieve that single aim as opposed to winning the race but nothing they have achieved makes me think they are good enough to actually win it.

I can't buy in to the concept that this is a vintage CH. I will probably back The New One if anything but it is not on the top ten list of races I am looking forward to next week.

Annie POWER WAS BOUGHT AS A CHASER,SHE WON 11 OF HER 12 RACES,I HAVE ALWAYS SAID THAT WILLIE WILL NOT LET ANNIE RUN AGAINST HURRICANE FLY AND WE ALL KNOW THE REASONS WHY.
she can only win in the races she runs in.common sense will  tell you that.Ruby has gone on record and admitted that her only defeat was his fault.
the people on this forum should take a good look at themselves in the mirror and ask themselves why do I hate Annie Power the horse so much.
it is a thundering disgrace the way the betfair forumites attack this horse.it is not fair.
kindly leave Annie power alone and blame the people connected to her if you like ,but please the horse race to her ability.

I can't see KR Van or Bert winning, think they winning would be a shock but Arctic Fire i certainly can in fact he reminds me so much of Sublimity, winner in 2007. What if in his last couple runs the info to jockey was to just finish as close to fly as was possible without disturbing HF's chance at the record If you watch them races back am pretty sure he wasn't asked till just slightly after HF and Jez went to try and win and he was never getting no closer was he? At Cheltenham, a course which doesn't suit HF nearly as much as it might AF he will certainly be ridden to win in this and mullins has mooted a few times this winter to not discount him.

Annie Power wouldn't be the first horse that Mullins didn't allow run against the fly. UDS, Faugheen and AP have all been steered away from the fly to allow him hoover up plenty of grade 1's in the last 2 seasons. If Mullins was confident in Arctic Fire's ability to win a champion hurdle I think he would have also kept him apart from the fly this winter for fear of him beating him. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him placed (in fact I fancy him to run into a place if that is his target) but it would be a stretch to think that he could beat all of the top 3.

Trigger, The Fly has never been allowed to hoover up grade 1's. The best 2m hurdles run anywhere for the last few years are the races he has contested. The Champion hurdle is only run once a year.The grade 1's that he contests every year are the closest to it in quality

Another obsessed fanboys dreams bite the dust.

yes that's why Faugheen comes without a prep run which could've easily been in the Irish CH, and that's why UDS was sent to France last season and Annie over the WRONG trip... you see Mullins thought that by keeping the horse apart will enhance Fly reputation but in fact by not running his best horses against each other he has dented Fly's reputation who might've won those races even against the new talents but by keeping them apart was obvious he didn't thought he could beat either of them ..

Mar 4, 2015 -- 2:25PM, firstimevisor wrote:

Trigger, The Fly has never been allowed to hoover up grade 1's. The best 2m hurdles run anywhere for the last few years are the races he has contested. The Champion hurdle is only run once a year.The grade 1's that he contests every year are the closest to it in quality

Next year presuming Faugheen stays over hurdles, he will be running in the very races that the fly has been winning in Ireland over the last few seasons. He has been campaigned this year so as to avoid Hurrican Fly. If he proves better than the fly at Cheltenham then we can presume that those were 3 grade one races that he would have beaten the fly in this season. Last season Annie power was campaigned in England and UDS was also steered away from the fly so as to assist the fly in racking up the same grade one's. Mullins has openly admoitted that he loves the fly and he has got the favoured treatment to allow him be as successful as possible at other horses expense.

Timtin, more likely it was obvious he thought they wouldn't beat the fly. Trigger, if Annie Power couldnt beat More Of That over a trip she stays well I very much doubt she'd beat the fly over 2.Same goes for Quevega. UDS was a novice in all but name last year due to one novice hurdle win in 2013. The only graded race he ran in before france was a very weak red mills hurdle. The horse is talented but a head case and WPM took him along slowly with his future in mind. I think WPM's track record shows that he knows a little about how to train and place racehorses. As for Faugheen, we will see on Tuesday how good he really is. Why wouldn't wpm love the fly. He knows he'll never have another one like him.

@firstimevisor How do we know that Annie Power wouldn't have beaten the fly over 2 miles, getting beat by More of That over an extra mile is not proof. Her optimum trip is probably 2 1/2mile so you would think that a stiff 3 mile around Cheltenham is less suitable than a stiff 2 mile round the same track. It's all guesswork as to who would have beaten who but the disappointment is that if he was the horse that Mullins always proclaimed him to be that he didn't allow him the chance to prove it by swerving other horses, particularly over the last 2 campaigns. Very good horse but he could easily have another one like him if he campaigns him in the same way (avoiding his main rivals).

ok,im not saying what will win it I just want to express a point on interest.
Faugheen is well known for fiddling his hurdles.
the new one jumps to the right at his hurdles
and jetski is well known for getting into the bottom of a hurdle.
yet they are first ,second,and third,favorites.

what if you were going to back something else anyway...do we double our stakes?

Trigger, ffs the fly has nothing left to prove. I'd argue he's the best in the last 30 years.He's won 22 grade 1s The point is he has never swerved any horse. Others may swerve him. If you are going to be critical then start with The New one or Faugheen... who have they taken on? The best 8 2m hurdle races run in the last 2 campaigns have been the 8 that he ran in.That is fact. As for AP's champion hurdle credentials, we'll agree to disagree on that.

I think the best 2 miler that TNO has beat to win a race remains ROR....Faugheen has yet to beat one.

Duffy if you want to lose twice as much by all means double up. I do believe though that Arctic Fire has a great chance and could surprise. I could also see one of TNO or Jezki missing out on a place.

I thought mushroom season was over, but brassneck must have a stash

trippin in a field of daisys

hi duffy,i am not advising any bet,i started to give my view that any horse in the race has a chance of winning it,but I got side tracked over Annie Power once again.
Since the day Annie Power started racing the Betfair forumites have never anything good to say about the poor horse,she is the butt of everyones jokes even though she won 11 out of 12 races.She has been called serious names,and attacked as a useless piece of (you know what)after her defeat last year.
the dum dums on timeform radio joined in and are worse with their critism of Annie .
How can it be that a horse called More of That can be one of the finest horses ever to hurdle while Annie who finished second in the race ends up been called a piece of you know what.feck sake lads the horse runs in the races she is placed in and runs as fast as she is allowed.how about leaving the poor horse alone and  blame the stable,its not fair on the horse .thank you .

@firstimevisor You say that the best 8 2 mile races run in the last 2 campaigns have all included Hurricane Fly. Well the only horse of note that he beat in any of those 8 races was Jezki yet when he came up against him when it mattered at Cheltenham in the championship race he was well beaten into 4th. I'm not knocking the fly, very good horse and his longevity was remarkable but best hurdler in the last 30 years? I'd beg to differ there.

do you have pictures of annie on your bedroom wall

no,but I can see her out my window at this very moment.

HORSENAPPER ALERT

lots said here but no-one has nailed down which outsider will win.
Artic fire mentioned alot,  Could Kitten Rock  win without McCoy on board?

He picked wrong in many races last year.....................

Trigger, please name even one race run over the last 2 seasons that was better than the races he ran in. All grade 1s matter. They are Majors. Fair enough the CH is the most prestigious but its not the be all and end all. Kauto Star was beaten 5 times at the festival but doesnt mean he was an inferior horse to those that beat him.

HORSENAPPER ALERT



HORSEFIDDLER

@firstimevisor. The best hurdlers in Ireland and the UK over the last 2 seasons have been MTOY, Jezki, TNO, Faugheen, AP & UDS. The fly has only beaten Jezki out of all of these (was also beaten in the big c'ship race when it really mattered by the same horse). You could include Our Conor but he was a 5 year old who was living on potential and was likely going to get better. It's a sad reality but unfortunately now we only get to see all the top horses run against each other once a year and whilst it creates a more exciting festival it's to the detriment of the rest of the season. You can't feasibly put each of the grade ones on a par. The champion hurdle is far more prestigious than the other 'majors'' most of which are run on heavy ground around Leopardstown. If the fly had won a greater variety of races like a Xmas hurdle or an Aintree hurdle his legacy would be far stronger again. If Faugheen wins a CH I hope Mullins at least sends him to Aintree and prove his versatility but I expect he will go down the fly route again which imo is bad for those who like to see competitive racing.

My god i've seen it all now....So The Fly needs to go to the UK more often to prove himself, maybe take on Bertimont, Purple Bay etc in the grade 1s there. TNO didnt even show up for the Christmas hurdle. Diakali beaten a whisker in Aintree and Thousand Stars nutted in it 2 years running wouldnt see what way the Fly went. So the Fly wouldnt make your top 6 the last 2 years and Jezki does but Fly beats him 5 out of 7. Who did UDS beat to warrant a place, or AP for that matter. Faugheen has beaten nothing yet either. Bizarre post. And whats wrong with heavy ground or Leopardstown. Best horses are trained in Ireland now and we are talking jumps racing, which is a winter sport and very very rare for any top races,either side of the pond, outside of Cheltenham festival to be run on ground better than soft.

Bizarre post why, because I've disagreed with your assessment of the fly as the best hurdler in last 30 years? I seem to have hit a nerve here, and don't try and twist the argument by saying that I said the fly wasn't in my top 6 for the last 2 years, you know fine rightly I never claimed that. You could argue he has been the most consistent and certainly the most durable of them all but not necessarily the best in championship conditions. He found 3 of them better than him last March. The point is that Mullins kept UDS, & AP away from being campaigned against the fly and up until now he has done the same with Faugheen. That done the horse no favours if he was trying to prove the horses legacy although it did help him rack up the grade 1s.

The fly has won 2 champion hurdles on a course he doesnt like, hes naxt to invincible in Ireland he is definitly one of the best we've seen that should be the end of that conversation. Cheltenham is Brilliant but its startng to ruin the rest of the season which is a major concern, and i think its having a more negative effect on the British NH season than the Irish.

This game is all about opinions and mine is the Fly would smash any horse that wants to race against him at Leopardstown.

Fair enough Trigger,just it read as though you didnt have him in your top 6. Like I said, WPM didnt campaign UDS at the highest level, I would say thats his own business and nothing to do with the Fly's legacy. There were any number of races he could have run in but didnt. AP went the UK route as Faugheen has this year and they are due to clash next week anyway. The only part that hits a nerve is where you suggest the fly has racked up 22 grade 1s by getting soft touches. Solwith, Thousand Stars, Go native, Pedlers Cross, Rock On Ruby, Binocular, Our Conor, Jezki were all top class and he could make them look ordinary. Like i said, the best races run for the last 2 seasons (or 5 seasons if you like) were the races he ran in, and not Christmas or Aintree hurdles. I could argue all day that he's the best of the last 30 years but I suspect many wouldn't have that even if he won next week.

Hurricane Fly has never won a Hurdle race in a time quicker than the standard. In it's four Champion Hurdles, 2 were run in quicker times than the standard and he was destroyed in both.
You can't say he is not a great horse, but I've often wondered why they don't try to run the sting out of him more often
I also like to see the best hoses compete against each other in the Grade 1s and in many of his wins that has not been the case

Are you ok brassneck,get in touch with your local crisis team,they might section you !

trigger3 - i note your low number of replies with interest. Irrespective of whether i agree or not with your perspective (i actually believe you make a very vaild point re the irony of WPM choices designed to enhance HF legacy may actually harm it) it is very refreshing to read somebody that puts their case across so compellingly and with clarity. it is a shame that people have not really listened properly to the main thrust of your point, have jumped down your throat and put words in your mouth. I wonder if like me this is the reason for your low number of replies.

had HF run against AP or UDS last year or F this year he may have beat them and if he had then there could be little or maybe no doubt about his legacy and certainly in my eyes his reputation greatly enhanced. The fact that he was not given the opportunity to do so by the trainer for whatever reason has cast a doubt in some peoples minds and the whole point about a legacy (or reputation) is that it is determined by the masses and not by the few (i.e. greatest fans or biggest critics)

I went to the bank this and asked for a 50 grand loan to back ANNIE POWER.
Bank manager asked how could I prove that I would be able pay back the load.
So I showed him Annies form and stats.
he quickly wrote out a check for 100 grand.
I told him I only needed 50 grand
he said have 50 grand on for him also.
Clever bank manager.

Bonkers

It's through Mullins having nearly all the big guns that we have this scenario, that said at least he is letting them meet at Cheltenham. It would be nice to see English horses take HF on at Leopardstown. Whilst HF has been a very good horse I cannot have him as the best in 30 2mile hurdler years.

Peddlers Cross ran him close and Rock On Ruby beat him and while I'm fond of both these horses they are not brilliant.

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ


How many is it now? 20 odd grade 1 wins, 2 champion hurdles but not the best we've seen Even the effort needed to keep going as long as he has is not easy!

I am so sick of reading such drivel, each to their own your entitled to your opinion but basing your analysis of him not being the best to the horses he has beaten along the way is nothing more than an excuse to back up your own feeling on the horse. Maybe he give you a bad taste in the mouth cos you backed one against him one day i don't know but Hurricane Fly certainly does not deserve these comments one bit!!!

Maybe you love the horse too much to not try to understand what others are implying so you take offence for nothing. Of course he's in the record books and is pretty much among the best hurdlers of the last couple of years but ability wise he isn't among the top all time 10 hurdlers, he's more quantity over quality and that quantity would've been much lower if he had taken on the young talents(see Annie, UDS, Faugheen).

Also there have been enough hurdlers with a longer longevity at the top level than Fly with 3 CH wins on their record(5 in total) so all he can do this year is to equal them quantity wise. You don't gain respect when avoiding rivals which is what Mullins doesn't seem to understand when he leaves home horses so that the mighty Fly can have his way, sometimes it doesn't work though eg. last years CH. I'm sure he won't ever make this concession for Faugheen in the future as he doesn't care for the horse at all, he admitted recently in an interview that he tried to get him beat by taking him to that 3 miles group 3 race on heavy ground which he'd never do to The Fly, ever.

My love for the horse I fooken hate the animal, cost me a fortune down the years betting against it and laying it on here!!!

But at the same time

A horse can only beat what is put in front of him!! Winning a race at all takes it out of you, just ask Mo Farah!

No one was talking about his consistency at the top level, but his ability heights which didn't got him in top 20-30 hurdle performances of all time; nevertheless he's surely in the mix no doubt especially given his dominance in the last years.

Btw I hope he won't make you lose money again this year as I see him in the first 3 and if you're hoping for Jezki to return to last year form and place, or other place combinations with TNO its again going to cost you money. More to the point don't count on Jezki or TNO to get placed as they don't stand for place value at all, count for Fly to get placed as he's in the best form of his life(similar to his 2011 CH) and will be the main challenger to Faugheen and at the prices he'll give a better run for your money than TNO or Jezki.

Before you place a bet on the champion hurdle race think about this.

Anti post bets.

brassneck


   05 Mar 15 18:36 
Joined:   13 Feb 03      | Topic/replies: 4,750  | Blogger: brassneck's blog   

I had a bet on the champion hurdle,the horse I backed was withdrawn,but the bet went into cyber space after the field was cut to 8 runners,there is no record on my account of a lost bet.i also thought that betfair were going non runner no bet,
anybody know what were the anti post terms on the champion hurdle.




oh dear

Seathestars how and why do you think Hurricane Fly is better than Istabraq?

I used Rock On Ruby as he beat HF in the CHdl and that did not leave a bad taste in my mouth as I backed him.

I think most agree that it is not the horses fault but it would have been nice to see him tested at different courses. Only six times where he has run in a field of ten or more, most wins are small fields and same horses.

I am now after reading that betfair do not apply NRNB correctly.the horse must reach the overnight decs for you to get your money back.so back antipost on betfair at your pearl.
now before I start a scare I read it on another thread (not in betfair antipost rules)
but I advise you all to read the antipost rules.
its not good to be confused and at the moment I am confused,so check it out lads.

"its not good to be confused and at the moment I am confused" are you sure its just @ the moment Brassneck

its not me that broke this news its a guy called mange,and it is wrong what betfair are doing if he is correct.
he says on the anti post thread on the horse racing forum that if you do not reach the final entries on an anti post bet you lose.
I have no reason not to believe mange(in fact I credit him for notifying me)
So it is certain to effect anti post bets on betfair,and needs to be cleared up other wise there are going to be a lot of arguments.

the op says it may be worth being against the front 3 in the market well its tough to see beating the three of em but  hurricane fly available at 10s ew   (5/2 for the place part of the bet ) must be value ew in  a race where we have the dead at (may even cut up futher) , the 8 includes bertimont who seems to have  very very little chance of framing so 5/2 hf to  frame in reality looks only 7 poss runners must be the play.if u cannot give hf any poss chance of winning you canofload the win part paying a very small fine and keep the place. looks as fair a bet as  the wwk will offe u.

we all have to remember that Willie Mullins is no dozer.now he is not running hurricane fly to make up the numbers,he truly believes that the fly can win it.And he wants him to win it,and he wants Ruby to ride it.That said ,the reason the stable give last year for Annie Powers withdrawal was that it was not their policy to allow their top horses to compete against each other.Which leads to the question why he is also running Faugheen in the race.
Now for the life of me can not see why faugheen is in the race when its his dream for hurricane to win it.
and we know rich ricci will do what ever willie says.so the question is why have a dream and then plan to dismantle the very same dream that you wish to come true.

you just need to put things into perspective, Mullins made a fool out of RR last year making lots of mistakes with placing his horses, so after P`town last year when they sat down to decide whether Faugheen or Vautour remains over hurdles, RR told him he could keep the Irish CH for Fly and send Faugheen in England, so that pact was respected and now for the CH there's no pact left. Also Faugheen was favourite in the CH since the beginning of the season so unfortunately Mullins can't dodge this bullet as it would look too bloody obvious and all he's left with is hope and hope that a miracle happens which can happen as Fly is in great form at the moment.

At 10/1 now I agree the fly is the value bet in the race each way. Crazy price given his history and the season he has had.

Steamship, there are 4 open grade 1 races run over 2 miles in Ireland each year. Likewise in UK as far as I know. These are the 4 races the fly runs in every year plus the champion hurdle. They are both grade 1 tracks-one left handed and one right handed.There is absolutely no need for him to run anywhere else as no other races would fit his training program. Its the same with Jezki.
As for the small fields, well, even though there are thousands of hurdlers in training, theres a gap in ability between the best 3(HF, Jetzki, Faugheen) and the next (Artic Fire) and an even bigger gap to the rest. In the UK the gap between TNO and everything else is huge. So who needs big fields ?. Look back at last years CH... ten ran (i think), only five counted and one of those fell. The pacemaker CCB finished fifth with the others barely home before dark. This is why you are getting small fields...only 8 declared for Tuesday and only 5 count.In the top UK races other than Cheltenham its the same when any of the big four turn up.
Big fields are fine when there is no obvious pecking order ( there were always big fields for Istabraqs CHs cos there was little else of any quality around) but the last thing I want to see is inferior horses getting in the way and messing up the race

And willie talks down Faugheen,he says he still has to do it all,while when talking about the fly,hes like a salesman talking how good he is.its not normal for Willie to be reserved when dishing out complements about his horses but with Faugheen he does not seem to be excited about the prospects of him winning .(imvho)
And he always has something good to say about Arctic Fire,he would nearly remind the interviewer that AF is in the race case anyone forgets.

This year i backed HF at 20s in early Jan when there was speculation he could be retired after the Irish equivalent with the record safely in the bag!

I see it like this, and did so when i backed him, (each way of course)

Mullins still believes HF can win the Churdle, but knows that probably wont happen given his age. It is quite possible the plan at the start of the season was to go for the record and then retire him given how big his odds were. World hurdle was mooted early doors but i took that with a very large pinch of salt! And then when Mullins saw just how good a form he was in this season he has changed his mind and letting him take his chance. This decision i feel was made around New years time (when i backed him) and the decision was then made to A: go for the record and B: to not give Faugheen another prep run perhaps knowing that he is the new kid on the block but imagine the headlines if HF were to do it! It is also for this reason i think there be a lot of shocked forumites on here if RW picks fly! I think its a close run thing on who he chooses, i really do!

Ruby won't pick fly unless it it starts raining cats and dogs over the weekend.

if I am allowed an opinion without getting insulted I truly believe that Annie Power would pulverize this champion hurdle field and would have had she not got the setback in her training.

I do also think that Arctic Fire may have been plotted up, in other words never put in each of the races where he has contested HF. This could be a reason why Mullins is on the record saying to not forget him! On this beast at 25s! In fact as usual on a very nice position as sitting on a 79% book win and 120% place (Faugheen is a win only bet the rest are each way) gosh i wish Cheltenham was every day haha

@trigger Hattons Grace in 1952 at 12yo(of course more classier than Fly in terms of ability) when bidding for his 4th champion hurdle, he faced terrible competition, he came from a horrible run lto no where near the form he was in previous year and he still was sent off at 13/2(2nd favourite) while Fly is 10s now with Lads after a near his best season beating current champion 3 times(Jezki backers of course are hoping for a return to his best.. but hope against form at 9/2 or anything below 7/1 is delusional). Fly is value e/w, considering he could've won another CH with the right tactics. People forget that of course and are living with hope of TNO and Jezki placing to recover their stakes(mugs), they should either have strong win view of the race and/or find a value e/w proposition.

I can see a lot of sentimental money for the fly on the day. If Mullins thought he had no chance he wouldn't be sending him over, he has deserved a shot and he's only a few months older than he was when beating Jezki 3 times already this campaign. His durability is not in doubt and after a lot of analysis I've decided to make an each way play on the fly for the race. There is nothing else in the race representing value unless you strongly fancy Faugheen and for me it's a huge leap of faith to back a horse at those short odds in a race which he hasn't come remotely close to competing in before in terms of quality.

I hadn't ruled out Mullins doing a sand bagging job with Arctic Fire either cow when you watch the races at Leopardstown he has been running on at the end. However Walsh has said that AF will not win a champion hurdle. I think they will run him to get a place.

Def. doesn't sends him for nothing, sure the ground will play in his favour if it comes proper soft, but good-soft ground is bound for first day, just like previous years.

Faugheen, if he confirms expectations, will never be bigger than evens in his career so I personally consider it a value call at anything at or above evens(50% chances of winning).

How is backing each way value.The Fly 10/1 20 eway say,comes 3rd the return is 70 quid,that's a mugs bet it turns into an odds on shot.
Either you have Faugheen at 3/1 or bigger,or you bet on the place market if you think he is the most likely winner,or without fav market.

Lay back the win bet if you think he can't win. However I'm happy enough to let the 10/1 win part of my bet roll on the fly. He has been better than Jezki all season and should not be over twice his price.

the other thing we should all remember is that Willie Mullins is a gentleman in racing and in life in general.He is treated like a god in Ireland.he has helped many many people within racing and life.there is not one person in Ireland that would not help the man if he needed it,and not a person that would not wish him well.
most people in and out of racing would like to see his dream of winning the champion hurdle with hurricane fly come true.
If fact most people would help to make his dream come true.
so Ruby has a big decision,it should be interesting.

@timtim. Really, you think his chances are about 50/50. You could be proved right but until he shows what he is capable of against top level horses I maintain its a crazy price. However with bookies it's a psychological game as they know that the shorter a cheltenham favourite is, the more it will attract the mug money. Keep enough short priced favourites and hope for as many multiple mug bets as possible.

the game nowadays is lead by exchanges, even on course bookies have some sort of system updating their prices almost instantly based on betfair prices, G. Banks complained about this few weeks ago.. so basically real punters when they'll lose faith in Faugheen and you'll see a drift on here you'll also see a drift with most firms, not often it happens the other way around unless there's some news they find out earlier than punters.