Cheltenham Festival

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01 Mar 15 08:29
Date Joined: 03 Jul 04
| Topic/replies: 65 | Blogger: blarney's blog
Mr Mole currently trading at less than 10/1 for the Champion Chase is the worst value on offer at this years festival.

Hurricane Fly 9/1 and Jezki 5/1 are also too short in the betting for the Champion Hurdle.

Petite Parisienne offers backers poor value at 10/1 in the Triumph against solid British form.
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Report TheCollector March 1, 2015 8:38 AM GMT
Don Poli is an absolute shocker imo and Don Cossack I wouldn't back with yours
Report gazovic March 1, 2015 8:53 AM GMT
how would you price up the champion hurdle market blarney?
Report delsie777 March 1, 2015 9:52 AM GMT
It's not just Mr Mole - all Nicholls' horses are shorter than they should be due to his outstanding saturday record. Most of his festival horses have already disappointed at Cheltenham - Dodgy Bullets stuffed in the Arkle, Silviniaco beaten in back to back Gold Cups, Zarkandar annually beaten at Cheltenham,
Even his Coral Cup horse Aux Ptits Soins has been backed blind into favourtism. Fantastic trainer and a master at targeting races all season long - but a terrible recent festival record.
Report Hussard March 1, 2015 10:11 AM GMT
Zarkander won a Triumph so not true to say he is beaten annually. Yes Dodging Bullets has not done it at the festival I'd not touch him or Mr Mole, Conti is debatable for me too short but I feel he can win.

Nicholls will do ok at the festival.

Douvan is a ludicrous price as is Faugheen. The Mullins hype is crazy. Even though I've backed a couple of his I'd love for him to draw a blank with his stable every one of whom he has stated is a super star. We will see but every runner he has is too short.
Report blarney March 1, 2015 10:14 AM GMT
Win Only Market would be 8/11 Faugheen 9/4 The New One 7/1 Jezki 14/1 Hurricane Fly 25/1 Arctic Fire 50/ Kitten Rock.

Not sure if there will be many more runners......

I just think Faugheen looks outstanding this season and is easily the pick of Miss Marples horses (Happy The New One can be forgiven his run the last day where connections only wanted to do the minimum. As it turned out, he had to dig deep to win. This race is his target however, and a different horse is expected to turn up on the day.

Hurricane Fly does not get home with a true end to end gallop at this track imo. He has looked good picking off his opposition on bad ground throughout his career where races are tactical and although he is a wonderful horse in his own right, I believe he cannot cope against stamina horses with the pace for 2 miles. Aged 11 now, he is likely to be overlooked by Ruby Walsh.

Jezki will not have the services of Barry Geraghty this year and I honestly think he is 3 or 4 lengths worse off. I make it more of a match between the market leaders and that means the rest should, in my opinion, be a longer price to win.
Report delsie777 March 1, 2015 10:28 AM GMT
Douvan is a shocking price because we all got on at decent prices and the bookies have massive liabilities - same with Faugheen. that's bookmaking - if you missed the prices just back something else rather than moan about it being short.
The Nicholl's horses are just bad value regardless of price. Backing Taquin De Seuil for a handicap will prove to be shocking value when he rocks up in the Ryanair.
Report Hussard March 1, 2015 10:43 AM GMT
I stated clearly I had backed TDS for the Ryanair but it doesn't cloud my judgement that Jonjo will run  where he thinks the horse has the best chance. Well done on giving the bookies huge liabilities on Douvan, they had them on Dunguib, Cue Card, MTOY as well. I have Faugheen at 8's but if it meant Mullins had no winners on the week I'd happily lose. You know where every horse runs so please post it up and help the forum out.
Report delsie777 March 1, 2015 10:55 AM GMT
You've backed Faugheen at 8's but you'd happily lose?? Right.
Report Hussard March 1, 2015 11:12 AM GMT
It's not a big bet I doubt the bookies are quaking at my less than huge liability.
Report ACStafford March 1, 2015 11:39 AM GMT
Jezki is overpriced and Mr. Mole seems about right imo. Faugheen, Douvan and Peace and Co are far too short.
Report firstimevisor March 1, 2015 12:03 PM GMT
Blarney, Hurricane Fly is as strong a stayer as there is in the CH. You have to forgive his run last year - there was something obviously amiss as he has proved 3 times already this year. Hard to expect an 11yo to win a CH but if if its ever going to be done again, this freak is the one to do it. One thing's for certain - he will be staying on better than anything. Faugheen an 8-11 your dreams!
Report jasey March 1, 2015 1:15 PM GMT
nothing was amiss with the Fly last year
Report ACStafford March 1, 2015 1:23 PM GMT
Blarney, Hurricane Fly is as strong a stayer as there is in the CH. You have to forgive his run last year - there was something obviously amiss as he has proved 3 times already this year.

Yes, the ground wasn't soft enough for him.
Report jasey March 1, 2015 1:27 PM GMT
Jezki will go off about 3/1 so he ain't bad value is he
Report Glossy March 1, 2015 1:29 PM GMT
Jezki will not go off at 3/1 or anything like it.
Report jasey March 1, 2015 1:31 PM GMT
Ok then 2/1
Report Howdi March 1, 2015 2:08 PM GMT
^^ Laugh
Report FOYLESWAR March 1, 2015 4:54 PM GMT
cant see how jezki is underpriced! reigning champion ,spring horse jess has campaigned him similar to last season ,we know he can battle it out up the hill and is a backable price only negative is bjg is not on board .
Report firstimevisor March 1, 2015 8:47 PM GMT
foyleswar, one question please, how is jezki a spring horse?
Report cufcno1 March 1, 2015 8:56 PM GMT
Because it wins in the spring,jezki will be around 4s on the day !
Report jasey March 1, 2015 9:03 PM GMT
Unbeaten in the spring out of novice company
Report jasey March 1, 2015 9:07 PM GMT
So if Jezki 4s what price TNO because no juice in his price and he won't carry any Irish money either.
Report cufcno1 March 1, 2015 9:09 PM GMT
7-2 the new one,11-8 faugheen
Report firstimevisor March 1, 2015 9:16 PM GMT
nothing personal cufno1 , but i just dont get that. 3rd behind champagne fever in 2013 supreme novice. fair enough won 2014 ch.V good punchestown record but thats just a 2 year window. call me a cynic if u want but i dont believe he's any better in march than he is in nov/dec/jan
Report cufcno1 March 1, 2015 9:20 PM GMT
He is a better horse on spring ground,going to be dry up until Cheltenham,personally think nothing will beat faugheen,all over jezki last year,jezki is half a stone better on decent ground
Report Pre-Fat-Low-Fat-Foods March 1, 2015 9:22 PM GMT
Shark Hanlon to be top trainer at 16/1 with Boils Silly
Report firstimevisor March 1, 2015 9:28 PM GMT
dont agree at all. He is a very good horse but the fly is better, and is not ground dependant. wherever jezki finishes this year, it'll be behind the fly.
Report cufcno1 March 1, 2015 9:39 PM GMT
Hurricane fly is a soft ground horse,jezki will beat him again if the word good is in the going description,neither will beat the machine
Report jasey March 1, 2015 9:41 PM GMT
I would have some of that in a match bet.Good ground and a furious pace kills the Fly.I can see horses that are running to try and place at best finishing in front of the Fly.
Report tomdeane March 1, 2015 10:22 PM GMT
Jezki is about the best example of a spring horse you could ever wish to find! I'd be shocked if he doesn't finish in front of Fly.
Report firstimevisor March 1, 2015 11:01 PM GMT
The fly won 5 punchestown festivals in a row..... is he a spring horse too??? Its nonsense to say jezki improves in the spring.... hes a very good horse as i've said before, whatever the season...... the fly did not perform at cheltenham or punchestown last year- and jezki did..... but dont assume that that means the same thing will happen again.... they are not machines. The fly has shown 3 times this year that he's still a better horse than jezki....but to assume that jezki will improve past him just because thats what happened last year is plain silly
Report deepingfox March 1, 2015 11:04 PM GMT
Worst value is probably DOUVAN, there are 3 or 4 likely sorts against him, and 7/4 means all the juice is squeezed out, even before the Irish unleash their on-course cash.

SILVINIACO CONTI at 7/2, with 8/1 bar including all the 1st time Gold Cup runners is understandable if it were at Kempton, but at Cheltenham could look short too, halfway up the hill finish.
Report TheCollector March 2, 2015 9:32 AM GMT
Don Poli, I repeat, is an ABSOLUTE SHOCKER.

Slow as ****
Report Rathgorman82 March 2, 2015 11:29 AM GMT
Don't see how 9/1 The Fly is poor value on form. Unbeaten in three grade one's this season, two times champion hurdler and twice placed, apparently has not regressed.... 9/1 looks slightly overpriced to me. Now i'm not saying he will win it, but purely on the book and putting aside excuses and "Potential" he's as good a chance as any.
Report timtin March 2, 2015 12:16 PM GMT
@Rathgorman correct Fly is overpriced, the mighty Hatton's Grace was 13/2 at his 4th attempt when 12yo and came into the race from an unplaced effort at Naas so in much worser form than Fly who comes into the race looking better than ever. Fly should be 6/1 or shorter!
Report cufcno1 March 2, 2015 1:35 PM GMT
Don poli will win next week and go close in the gold cup next year,jumps,travels,and finds off the bridle !
Report TheCollector March 2, 2015 4:22 PM GMT
Don Poli :

Ain't been since since December
Only had 2 runs
He's that good they don't even know if he is an RSA or a 4m horse
He is only 6

A shocker of a favourite
Report cufcno1 March 2, 2015 4:32 PM GMT
The end of December,if it had ran a few days later would you fancy it,do you think apache stronghold and wounded warrior are bad horses
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