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Only peanuts wanting to back it on here. Something up??
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Probably just PP's offer - why back him here when you can get your money back from PP when Douvan beats him. Not much money queuing up for anything except the fav
when Douvan beats him
Class.
Hope you're right btw.
Class.
Hope you're right btw.
One of the lays of the meeting is L'Ami Serge for me.
Not sure highest rated going into race,rock solid imo.
His price on lay side has been jumping about last few weeks.
As backer at 14s hope all well, was on Tuesday anyway lol.
His price on lay side has been jumping about last few weeks.
As backer at 14s hope all well, was on Tuesday anyway lol.
I don't think he's done anything wrong myself but the trends spotters will have spotted that he fails on two key 10/10 trends
- Run in the last 52 days (66)
- Won 50% of hurdle starts (won 3 of 9)
The last one is a bit tentative as if it was 'won 50% of races in UK and Ireland' then it would have been a 100% record, which I'm almost certain would be a 10/10 trend.
Not sure if 66 days since a run is ideal prep for this race and Henderson hasn't won it since Flown in 1992 (although multi-placed in that time and perhaps overdue). It hints (shouts loudly?) that perhaps Henderson isn't the best trainer of a horse for this particular race.
It's good news for his fans as he could go off at 6/1+ on the day.
- Run in the last 52 days (66)
- Won 50% of hurdle starts (won 3 of 9)
The last one is a bit tentative as if it was 'won 50% of races in UK and Ireland' then it would have been a 100% record, which I'm almost certain would be a 10/10 trend.
Not sure if 66 days since a run is ideal prep for this race and Henderson hasn't won it since Flown in 1992 (although multi-placed in that time and perhaps overdue). It hints (shouts loudly?) that perhaps Henderson isn't the best trainer of a horse for this particular race.
It's good news for his fans as he could go off at 6/1+ on the day.
9 places inc 4ths in last 8 years,been knocking on door though.
Yep, as I said, maybe he's 'due'.
But no winner since 1992 is perhaps a significant reason to answer the OP who asks 'What is going on with L'Ami Serge'?
Always one who's 'better trained for the race' maybe?
Think of all those horses he has trained before and have failed? Binocular went on to win a Champion Hurdle but couldn't win this race.
Great chance of a place IMO, but is there one horse that's nearly always 'too good' as a novice? Based on Henderson's WIN record in the race and the quality of horse's he's had L'Ami Serge will need to be exceptional to WIN won't he?
But maybe, just maybe, he is?
But no winner since 1992 is perhaps a significant reason to answer the OP who asks 'What is going on with L'Ami Serge'?
Always one who's 'better trained for the race' maybe?
Think of all those horses he has trained before and have failed? Binocular went on to win a Champion Hurdle but couldn't win this race.
Great chance of a place IMO, but is there one horse that's nearly always 'too good' as a novice? Based on Henderson's WIN record in the race and the quality of horse's he's had L'Ami Serge will need to be exceptional to WIN won't he?
But maybe, just maybe, he is?
I think he is the one to beat on form. Douvan doesn't look as "professional" as Vautour did 12 months ago. Still lots to work on but the Supreme in my eyes comes to quick for him. I think Willie left him out of the Deloitte for that exact reason. My only concern for L'Ami Serge is the ground as he has yet to race on anything as quick as the Festival normally produces.
L'Ami Serge is a Kings Theatre so not unreasonable to believe he will actually improve on normal Festival ground. Courtesy of Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 31% of KT runners win or placed since 2009 with a strike rate of 18% since turn of the century including 37 individual winners.
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