Cheltenham Festival
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I think Djakadam (16.0) will become a single figure price once Ruby confirms.
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Kitten Rock for CH
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Coneygree if confirmed for RSA will be fav at around 5/2 imo.
If gold cup will come in a shade, maybe 13/14 area from current 18s? |
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If Don Poli goes for the 4 miler he will shorten on th back of that too.
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It's AP's last festival so I can see many of his shortening up - Jollyallan, Jezki, Mr Mole, Carlingford, Ned Buntline etc. How short they go will depend largely on how he goes I suppose.
The race I can see lots of movement is the NH Chase. If Don Poli goes to the RSA as seems likely, WPM will want Patrick to have a winning chance, If he goes for Perfect Gentleman that will shorten considerably. However, if they decide to run Vroum Vroum Mag in this and patrick is declared to ride, the price will crash. With the hype surrounding this horse, he could even go off fav. I've taken 20/1 NRNB in hope rather than expectation. |
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The Young Master 10/1 in 4 miler, is good trade if running nr no bet,nailed on if going to be less than 6/1.
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josses hill for the arkle
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Jezki will go off no bigger than 7/2 in my opinion.
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Nichols Canyon
Black Hercules if declared to run |
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Anything AP rides
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General Principle in the Bumper - currently 20/1 but if it runs it goes off favourite imo.
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Anything in the Green and Gold
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NICHOLS CANYON is 5-1 now
on the day this beast will be no more than 5-2 |
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Black Hercules.
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Lord Windermere
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Glens melody when "Annie" goes for the WH
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Alderwood ...Coral Cup
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SPRINTER SACRE
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JEZKI
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NICHOLAS CANYON
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Bookmakers, will shorten up horses, that they think can't win, so they can inform the public, that they have seen good money for this horse today, shorten it up and hope, people rush in to back a horse, at an even shorter price, than it was before.
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Whatever McCoy rides in the grand annual will shorten significantly, his last ever Festival ride, there will be a great deal made of it by the media, the public will bet it blind, I'm taking a shot on ned buntline being that mount, on at 10's NRNB, with intention to lay on the day, if that is his mount that day , will go off a lot shorter. Although he does have several choices in the race.
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if buywise runs the first day he could end up fav in the hcap chase
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The Fly--When the rumours start that Ruby may ride him after all
Incidentally who will ride if Ruby dos'nt |
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His work rider right? Townend has ridden him before and am sure he rides him out every morning
 Failing townend, mullins junior |
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Cause Of Causes in the 4 miler now that Jamie Codd confirmed as the rider for JP and Gordon Elliot
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Anyone know if you pick up a penalty for winning an amateurs race (or not)?
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Are you asking about Cause of Causes with a view to Aintree Gaz?
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I think the Jezki callers are right based on the weather forecast.
Lord Widermere too if it stays dry during the week. |
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Fabulous - I was, yes, though just had a look at the market for that race and I may have missed something
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Smashing in the Arkle. All you have to do is look at the form of his last 3 runs and especially the last 2. Should be 2nd Fav IMO.
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sprinter sacre money for it now. make my festival if he won
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Sorry gaz, just back in, there aren't any penalties for The National.
I've bet him for both, though I'd like to see him a bit shorter for The National, got my concerns it might not be the plan |
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No worries, cheers Fab. Horse has been campaigned like they have something on their mind, and sticking him in the 4miler would make sense if they can start to try as hard as they like without penalty. On a similar theme, Pineau de Re is winking at me from the Pertemps card but Im put off a small win bet.
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In relation to this thread, If In Doubt could go off half its price with Cause of Cause's defection.
There has been a fair bit of money for it on here though how much of that is down to the assumption that JP must have a runner, I don't know. Wouldn't fit the profile, and I wouldn't send him near the festival if he were mine but a hell of a talented horse if he stops taking the fences with him. His RPR and OR is right up there now and on the off chance they've sorted him out, I will admit to a small poke at 25s |
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Sprinter Sacre will go off 7/4 or less if the word good is in the going description. Also Bobs Worth cant possibly be 16/1 on the day,and whatever A P McCoy rides in the last on Friday [probably Ned Buntline ]
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The ones backed by the high rollers who know which race the handicap plot horses are running in.
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Zip Top has McCoy on board and has shortened considerably today for Saturday's Imperial Cup. Is 40/1 NRNB with several firms for the County Hurdle, which is its only Festival entry. If it wins the Imperial Cup it will be among the favourites for the County. If it doesn't it won't get in and its money back.
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Reported on Twitter Boston Bob going Ryanair. Currently 25/1 but going blue everywhere on Oddschecker.
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Backed court minstrel e/w at 33/1 ARKLE. I ake it half the price and around the same chance as the ones that UDS has destroyed in ireland.
Watch minstrel's win against chris pea green very early this season. He ran to 154 which is borderline place form in an arkle most years. He pulls maloney's arms out the whole way as he tries to drop him out. Only until 2 out when he lets it go and it's soon put to bed. He's so quick over the last 2 and chris pea green has done the form no harm at all since. At the time it was similar form to what irish saint had over CPG too. Like polly peachum he's been massively under rated on ground against in one run since. He's good ground dependent and has no other race to swerve UDS. Vatour still in the market , Josses hill a joke of a price for what it's done and 1 or 2 others running scared of UDS. This should shortern. If there's much more 16/1 about w/o UDS it's an excellent each way bet but with the outright being 1/4 odds you're buzzing with a place. 8yo but very progressive and bettered his best ever hurdle mark (gained at his peak in spring) in an early season novice chase. More to come but he might not even need it to have a very good place claim. |