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Cheltenham Festival

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delsie777
22 Feb 15 15:00
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Date Joined: 07 Jan 12
| Topic/replies: 672 | Blogger: delsie777's blog
Wasn't good enough last year. Wasn't good enough the year before. Would you take 3/1 that he will be this year? I mean, people on here saying that Faugheen is a stupid price - OK he might be - but at least he hasn't been beaten in the last 2 renewals. But 3/1 for a horse that is fully - and I mean fully - exposed,  to win a race that he has been beaten in 2 years running, that really is a joke.

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Replies: 69
By:
JOCI Club
When: 22 Feb 15 15:21
Nothing can be taken from the first race, as was still seemingly going well when coming down, so who knows what might have happened. Last year, who knows what happened in that race, it was most unsatisfactory, and I even suspect some kind of foul play the way Bobs Worth and SC jinked after the final fence. He looks a better horse this year, without any interruptions in his prep, and I think he'll take all the beating.
By:
delsie777
When: 22 Feb 15 15:33
Is third time lucky a good stat in this race?
By:
bigben
When: 22 Feb 15 15:49
First time runners have a very good record in the race in recent years.

I really don't see the track being an issue like some people do, something was clearly amiss last year & the cheek pieces have definitely helped.

The only slight negative this season is that you can argue he's been outstaying two & a half milers.

Lets hope this is his year as I've  backed him at 20/1 to win The KG & GCHappy
By:
delsie777
When: 22 Feb 15 15:53
Good luck to you, man.
By:
Fashion Fever
When: 22 Feb 15 15:53
i think he would have won the year he fell, and think hes a 10lb better animal now

last year was farce no ones ever expained it, yes SC was shattered after the last but the other 4 were to, my theory was they went half a stride quicker on that fast ground then they had ever been and nothing else to give.

best horse in the race for me by miles, prob get 5/1 morning of the race will do or me, second in is a handicapper, and holywell do me a favour.

will double my best espcially if a bit juice in the ground,
By:
delsie777
When: 22 Feb 15 15:58
So - how many have won at the third time of asking? Anyone? Stats guys?
By:
JOCI Club
When: 22 Feb 15 16:01
You've only asked twice.
By:
Howdi
When: 22 Feb 15 16:24
OCI Club • February 22, 2015 3:21 PM GMT
Nothing can be taken from the first race, as was still seemingly going well when coming down, so who knows what might have happened. Last year, who knows what happened in that race, it was most unsatisfactory, and I even suspect some kind of foul play the way Bobs Worth and SC jinked after the final fence. He looks a better horse this year, without any interruptions in his prep, and I think he'll take all the beating....not sure nothing can be taken from the first race. horses may reason for falling is due to tiredness.
By:
Howdi
When: 22 Feb 15 16:25
On stats ...SC is one of the lays of fez but I for one hope he wins as for the last two years he has been the best horse in the country.
By:
SoYouThink
When: 22 Feb 15 16:31
Punjabi, Binocular, Cue Card, Fondmort, Kicking King, War of Attrition all won championship races at The Festival having lost twice on their two previous runs at the meeting...so it's that uncommon
By:
sintonian
When: 22 Feb 15 16:36
I don't think his exposure matters given the form he is in. You know what level he is going to run to and it is down to the rest to bridge the gap. 3/1 seems reasonable to me.
By:
ACStafford
When: 22 Feb 15 16:41
Cue Card didn't lose his first two visits. He won the Bumper.
By:
delsie777
When: 22 Feb 15 16:43
And we were asking specifically about the Gold Cup
By:
Howdi
When: 22 Feb 15 16:47
Shocked disgraceful slant against cuey that
By:
timtin
When: 22 Feb 15 17:06
2 years ago was going very well until falling, would've been involved in finish nevertheless, was fancied to win it.

1 year ago he had ulcer which Nicholls discovered only after Aintree which was the reason for wandering around in the final stages(both GC and Bowl Chase) as the pain was increasing, even more evident on the stiff uphill at Chelt.

This year he is an improved horse following the ulcers treatment and should take the Gold Cup leaving the absolute farce last year 1-2-3 finishers well behind.

Stats don't apply to him as he wasn't giving his best on the first 2 attempts(faller and internal injury)
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 22 Feb 15 17:07
Whilst that's true soyouthink I don't think any of those examples you gave had gone for the same race three times and surely that is the relevant issue?
By:
delsie777
When: 22 Feb 15 17:09
Falling doesn't count? Really?
By:
timtin
When: 22 Feb 15 17:26
no fallers don't count because we can't quantify form in those situations, especially when SC was in contention and was travelling much better than the rest when making the mistake(the only major one out of his 200+ jumped fences in career) therefore you can't include SC with the likes of Giant Bolster's who have tried several times and weren't good enough.
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 22 Feb 15 17:50
He wasn't travelling much better than the rest though timtin. Sir Des Champs was travelling just as well as SC going in to the fence but as we saw on the run in his petrol ran out and he was outstayed. Would the same have happened to SC? Who knows. We do know he was outstayed last year on better ground though and we do know that whilst TGB may not be quite good enough at least he has actually won at the course which despite three efforts SC is yet to do. Maybe it's horses for courses costing him? I couldn't back him at the price but I certainly wouldn't say he can't win if they hold him together and make a little less use of him than last year.
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 22 Feb 15 17:51
And just maybe despite the visual evidence it may have been the fall of a horse who's mind was beginning to wander because he was getting a bit tired?
By:
JOCI Club
When: 22 Feb 15 19:20
Have been looking at RPR ratings as an index of their relative ability. Took the last 5 runs where they recorded an RPR.

                            Avg    Max    Min
Silviniaco Conti77     178    178    164    171    169         172     178    164
Road To Riches75     172    170    159    165    158         165     172    158
Ma Filleule27     159    158    98    164    157         147     164    98
Holywell29     170    152    167    162    143         159     170    143
Lord Windermere33     160    160    161    170    143         159     170    143
On His Own33     157    170    91    73    170         132     170    73
The Giant Bolster48     162    164    131    170    165         158     170    131
Carlingford Lough33     169    163    158    154    152         159     169    152
Coneygree34     169    159    149    146    146         154     169    146
Don Cossack57     169    166    162    155    138         158     169    138
Many Clouds48     169    165    158    150    152         159     169    150
Houblon Des Obeaux34     163    168    167    152    149         160     168    149
Sam Winner75     168    166    161    153    156         161     168    153
Bobs Worth75     159    167    165    140    181         162     181    140
Champagne Fever27     165    167    167    164    147         162     167    147
Boston Bob33     159    165    161    141    165         158     165    141
First Lieutenant33     146    161    120    162    165         151     165    120
Djakadam50     160    132    146    119    135         138     160    119
Smad Place48     160    149    163    157    139         154     163    139
Ballycasey27     144    139    149    154    156         148     156    139
Theatre Guide27     141    149    155    158    156         152     158    141
Home Farm33     147    153    136    149    146.25         146     153    136
Spring Heeled20     140    151    144    151    127         143     151    127
River Choice114     129    122    134    140    131.25         131     140    122

Silviniaco Conti's average RPR over his last 5 runs is higher than the maximum rating achieved by al other horses in the field with the exception of Bob's Worth and Road to Riches. His minimum rating is higher than the average rating of all other horses in the field, with the exception of Road to Riches. In short, he's consistently been operating at a higher level than his opposition for some time. Now, if he can only translate that into form on the day when it counts.............

I also have those two horses top from an overall trends perspective.

Silviniaco Conti77     82%
Road To Riches75     78%

Holywell29    73%
Carlingford Lough33    72%
Many Clouds48    67%
Champagne Fever27    60%
Don Cossack57    60%
Sam Winner75     56%
Coneygree34    53%
Lord Windermere33    51%
Boston Bob33    50%
Bobs Worth75     50%
Djakadam50    49%
Ballycasey27    45%
Houblon Des Obeaux34    44%
Smad Place48    44%
Home Farm33    38%
Spring Heeled226     37%
On His Own33    37%
Theatre Guide27    32%
First Lieutenant33    31%
Ma Filleule27    31%
The Giant Bolster48    30%
River Choice114     17%
By:
JOCI Club
When: 22 Feb 15 19:21
On the list of RPR ratings, the Avg, Max and Min should be over the last 3 columns of the data.
By:
bigben the horseman
When: 22 Feb 15 19:29
Being a huge Bobs worth fan and having maximum respect for Silvi I have watched last years gold cup back umpteen times and I still can make no sense of what happened on the far side. It was like they were running in treacle and I simply cannot have it that Silvi and especially Bob don't stay. Silvi almost started walking sideways for a few seconds and Bob jinked dramatically to the left for no reason whatsoever. Incredible scenes.
By:
jasey
When: 22 Feb 15 19:56
Winning the same race the third time of asking must be rare.
By:
SoYouThink
When: 22 Feb 15 20:11
I'm with Silviniaco Conti .... just wondering would the RPR analysis above - which is quite interesting - be shewed by the fact that a lot of SC's opposition is just out of novice company and they may not have been running at this level long enough to produce a high RPR?

Nevertheless it does strengthen the case for him and makes good reading from my point of view!
By:
JOCI Club
When: 22 Feb 15 20:22
Isn't the RPR meant to be a measure of performance irrespective of the opposition i.e. an absolute rather than a relative measure?
By:
Howdi
When: 22 Feb 15 21:09
Most forgotten race horse in recent times..........SIR BOBS WORTH.
By:
sintonian
When: 22 Feb 15 21:10
That's the thing, JC, we pretty much know what level SC is at and what he'll run to. It's down to the others to better it.
By:
Howdi
When: 22 Feb 15 21:12
^^^ Not sure we do at Cheltenham, though. If this race at Kempton we might know what he is capable of but here not so sure. (fall, and ulcers apparently)
By:
corporal
When: 22 Feb 15 21:25
Different horse this year - assume headgear and ulcers. Think it will hose up by 2-3 lengths. Struck by your comment JOCI on foul play last year. I thought exactly the same but never saw anything suggested. Imagination could run here...some kind of long distance 'stun'gun from Cleeve Hill?  Shocked
By:
Howdi
When: 22 Feb 15 21:28
^^^ there was loads of posts on here at the time, almost like they were spooked in exactly same place jacob horse went mental an hour before!!
By:
jasey
When: 22 Feb 15 22:26
Amazing how those ulcers kick in at the end of the race.
He has smashed up a load of non stayers this season.I don't think LW will retain his crown but I would have him in a match bet with SC all day.
By:
wellchief
When: 22 Feb 15 22:37
This argument has gone round the houses on the Gold Cup thread.
By:
canny danny
When: 23 Feb 15 18:55
back SC for 2016 Ryanair!!
By:
canny danny
When: 23 Feb 15 18:55
back SC for 2016 Ryanair!!
By:
canny danny
When: 23 Feb 15 18:55
back SC for 2016 Ryanair!!
By:
canny danny
When: 23 Feb 15 18:55
back SC for 2016 Ryanair!!
By:
canny danny
When: 23 Feb 15 18:55
back SC for 2016 Ryanair!!
By:
Magic__Daps
When: 24 Feb 15 13:26
I get the 'horses for courses' argument but it's hardly like he's been well beat in his 3 runs there. It just reminds me of the Sire De Grugy last year when plenty were saying it couldn't win at Cheltenham.

I think Conti is the best horse in the race by far and a very worthy favourite, it seems to be a better horse than last year since the cheekpieces have been added as well. I think if it gets around safely and they hold it up a bit longer it wins. If I wasn't on at bigger prices already it would be my only bet in the race at the current price - still seems overpriced to me!

I am not a 'stats' guy for backing or laying but I think there are valid excuses for being beat last year (freakish plus ulcers) and we will never know if it would have won the year before when seemingly going as well as anything in the race. Maybe I am blinkered when it comes to this horse, and 2 years ago was the best chance of him winning a Gold Cup, but I honestly think it is a better animal now than back then and will take all the beating in a couple of weeks time.
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