Taquin Du Seuil

cuf,i aint suggesting they wont try,why would I??

All about opinions lads He very well may not stay but he looks a stayer to my humble eye,He may not even be good enough but it's all part of the fun finding out and then coming back here gloating if he hacks up in march

Foyles im a glutton for punishment,please feel free to nip ahead of me next time

Sorry thought you said you don't know for sure they will try,which can be said with his handicappers.

Fair enough, but really,would you not want better prices to find out,like prices that reflect form during the season perhaps?

Are you both just backing cos they are Jonjos and he gets them there,and ignoring the price?
I mean take Holywell,been virtually the same price all season despite a real poor run and a long absence.

No mate, I meant try as in try 3m2f.
No worries.

budd i backed shutthefrontdoor at 100s all the way down to 25s on hereand laid off my stake at around 20 on here  have also backed tds at around 70s down to 40 plus holywel around 18 -16 .   all 3  are all open to lots more improvement and 2 are proven at the festival stfd has won an irish grand national as a novice under a biggish weight and although not beaten much could be anything

just think there could be  lot more to come from all 3 but as too the best of them who knows ,that's why i had to back all 3 ,

Well that's all fair enough mate,those sort of prices.

Wish ya luck.

cheers budd ,may be way off the mark but with jonjos being out of sorts for much of the season it could be a blessing in disguise as they could arrive at the festival relatively fresh horses who have not had many  hard races in heavy going this season ,that's what i am hoping anyway ..........good luck with yours !

Yeh,i can see that point of view,blessing in disguise and all that.

Just never know in this game.

Whatever one thinks of Jonjo,his horses will always have that air of - whats gonna happen - with them when it comes to the festival

Jumped like a pig again

wernt too clever tbh

thought he jumped ok, came to win the race 3 out and got done by a better animal.

I thought he would stay on better as all challow hurdle winners get 3miles at least.

jlt form not worked out

i wonder whether they will drop him in trip for ryannair now with some headgear maybe...not a forlorn hope in that race, i'm not sure he stays tbh

was noticeably free in first half of race and was constantly being reined back after jumping very well which inevitably led to a few jumping mistakes and being too far off the leader who was a certain stayer - clearly one for another day, most likely the festival

Just don't jump well enough to be able to get home over a distance probably too far anyway.
Two and a half miler imo,and needs to jump better.

Taquin's Cheltenham target will be the Ryanair. The Gold Cup will wait for another year. Jonjo's Gold Gup horse will be Holywell.

Yep, Ryanair.
Jonjo says he don't stay....hes right.

Gone for a walk on here. Doesn't look great

Jonjo quoted in RP this morning saying: 'TDS is 154 now so a handicap may look inviting'.

Not saying he won't run in Ryanair but possible reason for any drift?

^ should add he also said horse had come back OK from Denman Chase...

I'm not quick to believe what he says

Is anyone??

I think some folk would when the comment has that sort of content.

was just trying to help by relaying what he said, don't really have a view on the veracity or his motives, I don't need to have one at this stage.

If you don't believe anything he says, then you're entitled to interpret his remarks as an indication that the horse is not OK and will be conspicuous by his absence when the handicap entries are revealed.

My own view is that he's down to 154 because he's run disappointingly four times after which a variety of excuses/reasons have been peddled: ground, trip, trainer form.

I was impressed with his JLT win at the time but the runners in that race have mustered 6 wins from 39 attempts between them since, don't know the stats but 15% strike rate out of a Grade 1 Festival race does n't sound great to me.

thanks Reeseheath. I think those comments (of Jonjo) would do it

You'd have to take a view that he would stay 3 miles or 3m 1 in handicap company, because 2m 5f is his trip. No i don't think he will show up for one of those races.

The Byrne Group Plate (as was) is 2m 5f so he could run in that - pointless trying to second guess him but perhaps he fancies John's Spirit more for Ryanair - I think TDS will end up in Ryanair but would n't totally discount the Byrne race (yep,would be a strange choice for winner of Festival Grade 1 Novice chase).

More chance of him going for the rabbie burns haggis plate on st andrews day. If he's well there's only one race. Jonjo is at it with that comment.

I'd be really surprised if he does anything in any race this year; he just looks a shadow of himself. Jonjo is of course a master (or whatever you want to call him) when it comes to targeting this meeting, but not all of his horses win and this one just looks like he's in no place to compete at Cheltenham right now.

Couldn't resist having a few quid on him.

Not sure why he's being run at these longer trips but who can ever read Jonjo...TdS always looked best around the Ryanair trip. We know he likes it around Cheltenham as well, would have preferred a more encouraging performance lto but wasn't to, will put that down to the distance.

16/17-1 could prove a very big price.

Will run in Ryanair and likely to sport headgear of some kind.

On form this year wouldn't have much chance but can't help think this horse might have a bit of Albertas run about him suddenly turning up and running a blinder! See a few horses do it, run pretty badly most of the year then come alive at chelts not saying he definitely will but I couldn't resist a we dabble to win @ 18's and slightly bigger amount just to place @ 6.5

The owner was interviewed and said TDS's blood has not been right this season. Would not touch him with counterfeit tbh.

How can they run him at Cheltenham

He'll take the world of beating in the ryanair - Jonjo will upset lots of you over the 4 days. I think the forum will be up in arms when TDS goes in. He will be right on the day. Ask not - 'how can they run him at Cheltenham?' but ask why is he as short as 10-1 in places? The answer is because the bookies have taken some lumpy bets from some proper people and don't want to be shafted by another Jonjo plot. He is apparently very well, likely to wear some sort of headgear and be ridden by APMcCoy. He'll look a very different horse to the slogged around over 3 miles last time.

Yeah, right.

If TDS or MOT win at the festival,so be it,won't be having my money on them.
I ain't backing horses with sh1te preps just cos of the trainer.

I can't recall all of the Jonjo winners from past festivals (so forgive me if I am wrong) but my recollection from the past few years is that his winners in graded races have had good preps (MOT unbeaten last year, Synchronised winning a graded pre festival, Hennessy or Lexus I don't recall, TDS running pretty well before JLT win) and its only the handicappers (Alfie Sherrin, Holywell etc) who have gone into the festival in poor form only to miraculously turn it round in festival week.

On this basis, whilst you'd be mad to ignore a Jonjo horse in a handicap who appears woefully out of form, you'd be equally mad to back one of his in a graded race who was similarly out of form (there is simply no good reason why a horse aimed at a graded race would have a deliberately bad prep and it takes a leap of faith to imagine Jonjo will have them all right in just a few weeks).

Spot on MArvinho. MOT is slightly different as he has had one run, ran poorly, put away for a breathing operation and could now reappear at the festival. If he were to win it would not be the biggest shock in the world. TDS on the other hand has ran a couple of poor races and one deplorable one. Forget what he did last season until he shows some signs of life.

For what's it worth I agree with Marvinho, don't think the poor showings have been planned by Jonjo it would make no sense to.

But I don't think the increase in trip has ever looked like suiting him and I'm willing to take that as the reason (at these odds) for the poor showings.

Agreed.  The problem will breathing operations is you'll only know if its done the trick after the world hurdle (though connections may have a better idea based on home work so the market may assist). Given he'll be ridden by the retiring AP, and with the lack of real breakthrough contenders in the 3m hurdle division (none of the novices from last year have progressed - the opposite in fact!) I suspect that he'll be short enough on the day and it won't be a race to get heavily involved in.

I don't think TDS's Denman run was a poor showing, just looked a non-stayer to me. I'll be keeping him onside in The Ryanair.

Will Jonjo run both in Ryanair ?

154 is a decent rating I would be wary of backing TDS in Ryanair unless it is NRNB.

Assuming both rich mc stays on johns spirit, and if so ap i'd think would want one last shot at the ryanair, it's highly unlikely to me anyway that they would aim tds at a handicap race.

not quite as strident as your earlier assertion on the issue, Graeme. 

For what it's worth, he's generally quite a bit shorter for the handicap than he is for the Ryanair so if you think he'll run in the Ryanair NRNB will be a gift...

i'm not budging on my opinion. Nice try rease, but i can say with confidence, that if tds is fit, there is only one race, and it's certainly not a handicap race.

Johns Spirit rated 160 can't go in a handicap really. TDS on 154 the only other Jonjo entry who may get a run  is Lost Legend on 141 possibly won't get a run though.Festive Affair on 130 has no hope of a run imo. I have backed TDS in Ryanair and sadly I feel I've done my dough.
Segal tipped up Johns Spirit. Ladbrokes are also top price TDS for Ryanair. I hope I am wrong  but realistically AP could ride TDS in Plate and JS in Ryanair.

Johns Spirit is Mclernons ride.

Yes stevo - richie on Johns and AP on TDS is the current plan isn't it?

If Uxizandre rocks up here then AP would ride him wouldn't he? Geraghty on Ma Filleulle, so who rides TDS then?

Not sure Uxizandre is gonna rock up - that would be a tough call for JP. Famously let AP off Uxi to ride TDS in the JLT last year, only for AP to nail his horse up the run in.

Now that Mr Mole has emerged as a serious contender for the QM you would think Uxizandre would head to the Ryanair. Could be up to JP to let him off again.

I wouldn't fancy anything from last years JLT.

....although I have backed Wonderful Charm for the Ryanair

Sounds like Uxizandre for the Ryanair according to King and Taquin De Seuil for the Plate as O'Neil says he is tempted by his Hcp mark.

Reckon it will come as a bit of a surprise to the owners if TDS ends up in the Plate. Still, Jonjo said it so it must be true. To be fair, I'm sure he is 'tempted' - but handicapping has never been the plan with this horse.

can't be that much of a surprise given he mooted the possibility in the Racing Post over a week ago...

possibility is the key word obviously.

Not really drifting much on here went out to 22 but back into 18 again so would defo think it's still more likely they go for the Ryanair overall! Would be some comedown starting off thinking gold cup and ending in a handicap!

Jonjo tempted by Plate according to Racingpost (been dropped 5lbs) on 11st 6 as it stands

Why finish 2nd to Monetaire in a handicap when you have a knocking chance in the Ryanair - no brainer

delsie777 - will Monetaire get in ? 55 on the list.

He would be virtually top weight as Johns Spirit won't run off 11st 12 so the weights go up 5 giving TDS 11st 11. Tough ask giving best part of a stone  away but he is classy and I think JJ is seriously leaning towards handicap. He may feel he can't beat Johns Spirit off levels - who knows.

Running at a lower level probably means he'll be able to show some form. Phuck knows how books can have him as favourite. Mug bet imo.

haylingbilly
delsie777 - will Monetaire get in ? 55 on the list

Loads and loads of nonners above him - should just about be ok. They'll be gutted if it doesn't make it - probably didn't see 10-4 coming. What a chance if he scrapes in!

I just don't understand the love for this horse, based on this season's form anyway...

Re - there would need to be loads of nonners for Monetaire to get a run but this race of all the handicaps does traditionally cut up...

The handicapper may not rate him but I doubt connections are giving serious consideration to running off top weight in a Festival handicap. The horse hasn't been right all season but is a proven graded performer and a dual grade 1 race winner. If he runs at all it will be in the Ryanair, in headgear of some kind and possibly sporting a tongue tie to help his breathing.

Yeah I tend to agree that he will almost certainly run in the Ryanair! His run in at weatherby not to bad running on 2nd and since its came to light it was a shorter trip than it should have been that day reads not to bad! And also last time out thought he ran well enough and take in the fact that dynaste hidden cyclone and more than likely champagne fever all missing this race out now I think connections would be mad to not try take advantage of these things going in his favour!

Ryanair bound according to Jonjo on RUK

Well, well, well... what a turn up. So no more juicy prices to hoover up.

Back to 19 again. Let's hope Jonjo is not playing yo yo with this horses target.

Has to go for the handicap. It's an absolute no brainer off that mark.

He can come back again next year for the Ryanair as a two time winner at the festival.

Just read he has been taken out the handicap so would seem certain he runs in the Ryanair now :)

Does this mean i have to back him again??

No sense.

Noel Fehily jocked up. McCoy on uxizandre.

Strange, but i guess AP has to show loyalty in his final season. Any other season he would had been allowed to switch.

NF is tailor made for TDS

Fehily has got some top rides this cheltenham, which he thoroughly deserves.

Fantastic news - my confidence is further enhanced. Noel will be a great fit for TDS. Loving his chance

don't think it is strange tbh, it's not like both horses scream massive chance on form. Probably a flick of the coin.

Was gonna say Sint.........why is it strange to pick TDS over Uxizandre??

It's not like one has been so much better than the other,both are capable of a lot better than they have shown this season,but no way of knowing which if any will produce their form.

sint isn't a TDS fan, budd - thinks he's a mug bet. I still really like him = particularly with Feily up.
That's TDS - not sint!

I'm not a fan either to be honest,he don't jun

Oops, was gonna say,he don't jump well enough imo,got away with it in the JLT last year just about,but at the top,level not for me.

Has jumped perfectly in the past, hopefully a healthy horse will do better next week.

Really?? I think he's an average jumper myself.
Put it this way, if I backed him I would be thinking about his jumping all the way round. He don't fall I admit,but it's pretty clumsy at times.

Delsie, you were clearly not around last season as TDS was one of my bets of the week, posted on several threads and the NH thread in the other section. All there for your perusal if you like.

There is NO REASON to back him this season though. He is a mugs bet, IMO.

The owner has been on record and said his bloods have not been right. At least wait until he shows some kind of form surely? No idea why people want to back him tbh.

Sorry Dels

I guess people might be thinking the yard couldn't buy a winner from September till january Sint and had a 30% SR last month and 1 winner from 5 for March, Coupled with TDS Cheltenham form since going chasing reads 121(Beaten under a length after a last fence stumble) it's not the biggest shock that people might think his form will improve with a return to Cheltenham and a yard back amongst the winners.

That's ok sint - thick skin. You could be right, it maybe a mugs bet but I do fancy him to do an Albertas and suddenly come back to form. Unlike you, I have never liked the horse particularly and have generally opposed him, but this year I just feel it stinks of a jonjo job. Campaigned under a variety of conditions that haven't suited and seemingly completely gone at the game - that was when I first noticed him for this. That and a good friend of mine who only has 3 or 4 bets a year having his conkers on for this race after visiting the yard in February. That and the fact that Johns Spirits owners were keen to find an alternative target. You are probably spot on and he will bomb - but if he does give his running, he has a hell of a chance - imo!

Did they mention the virus they had through the season to your friend Delsie ?
From what I heard they couldn't even gallop the horses without them bursting for four months.
Only came right after Christmas so is a danger some won't be 100% till April.

Yes - apparently most of them are well now, but fitness is an issue with some. TDS was never sick as such but was clearly not 100% right. They have been aiming him at this for some time and he's been training with the horses they've been laying out for the handicaps. I think they spent so much time trying to isolate some of the horses that it just made things worse for a while. The ones they run at the festival will all be fit and well. The ones that are not spot on will wait. The one that's interesting is shutthefrontdoor - still in the 1st day handicap but were told he wouldn't be ready.

Good stuff, Just making sure you was aware of what's going on but you have a good grasp of events.
If Matorico turns up don't ignore him but expect he'll be in the Aintree squad. Best of luck for next week.

Same to you gut - all the best.

Ah lads i wanna read negative stuff not good stuff about the horse! I'll be suckered in again!

It would be nice to see him run well again, but not at the expensive of Ma Filleule